Your Crystal Ball

[Just Retired]

Let's say you're successful in your endeavors and takeout is reduced across the board by 2012.

Do your best to describe to me what the national racing scene will look like then, please?

For comparison, I think there are about 50 tracks running 9 races per day now all across the country, will that remain about the same?

For comparison, there are some huge pools on the West Coast, even with artificial surfaces, will that continue to be that way when compared to states like La and Ky for example?

Night time and daytime races are everywhere, do you forsee that being the successful model?

What will happen to the off-shore wagers, will they convert and impact the tote board and pools +/-?

Will new owners join the game because of reduced takeout?

Etc. Etc. Etc. You get the idea, I just want to know what it'll look like when you win your battles, thanks.

[miesque]

All I will say is you do ask an awful lot of questions. What are we a giant bunch of focus group guinea pigs?

[Just Retired]

All I will say is you do ask an awful lot of questions. What are we a giant bunch of focus group guinea pigs?

It's really just one question......how do you know when you win?

[andymays]

JR, take the mask off and let's get down to business.

I think you'll find you might learn something. :)

No, I'm not kidding. ;)

[Just Retired]

JR, take the mask off and let's get down to business.

I think you'll find you might learn something. :)

No, I'm not kidding. ;)


Mask?
not sure what you want, my questions have been pretty specific haven't they?

thanks.

[Bettowin]

Is your name Lester and do you have more than one identity on this site?

[andymays]

Mask?
not sure what you want, my questions have been pretty specific haven't they?

thanks.


I think you hinted that you were someone special from the California racing hierarchy right?

I know you think you're "slumming" with us but I can assure you there are quite a few sharp posters here who will challenge you and give you some good information if you let them. I am not one of the sharp ones. I am more the "pain in the ass" type.

[Just Retired]

Is your name Lester and do you have more than one identity on this site?

Oh my goodness, another question about who I am, and not another note addressing the questions at hand, who is Lester?

[johnhannibalsmith]

You are not Lester. That much I certain of. Your posts have mostly made sense.

[DJofSD]

Let's say you're successful in your endeavors and takeout is reduced across the board by 2012.

Do your best to describe to me what the national racing scene will look like then, please?

For comparison, I think there are about 50 tracks running 9 races per day now all across the country, will that remain about the same?

For comparison, there are some huge pools on the West Coast, even with artificial surfaces, will that continue to be that way when compared to states like La and Ky for example?

Night time and daytime races are everywhere, do you forsee that being the successful model?

What will happen to the off-shore wagers, will they convert and impact the tote board and pools +/-?

Will new owners join the game because of reduced takeout?

Etc. Etc. Etc. You get the idea, I just want to know what it'll look like when you win your battles, thanks.

How about you just tell us how we're wrong to want an across the board reduction in the take out rate?

[Just Retired]

I think you hinted that you were someone special from the California racing hierarchy right?

.

Absolutely not, HBP asked if I was a Horseman or an Executive with the CHRB, and I answered Yes. That "horseman" category is pretty broad and includes owners and trainers doesn't it?

[joanied]

If nothing else, you are persistant, Just Retired...cj closed your other thread, and here you are again...maybe you are FBI:lol: ...

maybe instead of asking all these questions, which I have a sneaking suspicion you already know the answers to...why not give answers to your own questions and see what feed back you get...usually, someone like you already has the answers. I'm sure we'd all like to know what you think needs to be done and how to accomplish it...take your best shot.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

If we have reduced across the board in most jurisdictions, offshores will become dinosaurs, horse racing will grow, purses will increase, and there will be lots of new owners thanks to exposure and bigger purses.

But it won't happen.

For example, there is a group of numbskulls in California that are rumored to be thinking of increasing takeout.

So by year 2012, I only expect to see more horsemen crying, track execs cutting dates, the industry will be looking for more ways to subsidize itself, some will be successful and some track will close.

Horsemen will still say we need more quality and people will magically get interested even though empirical evidence is not on their side.

Racing execs will say there is too much racing and not enough demand so instead of trying to increase demand (by lowering prices, ie takeout) they will cut purses and dates.

Some will think that drug testing will cause more people to bet....all it will do is stop customers from dropping out as quickly. Not that this isn't important, drug integrity will not cause growth by itself.

There will be zero growth if this continues...only more decline. And the hyenas (the horsemen and racing execs) will be fighting for a larger piece of an ever shrinking pie, instead of realizing who the customer is, and what the game is all about, and what the customer wants (to gamble, but to get a fair shake, where the possibility to win long term exists).

[Bettowin]

Absolutely not, HBP asked if I was a Horseman or an Executive with the CHRB, and I answered Yes. That "horseman" category is pretty broad and includes owners and trainers doesn't it?

Was your father recently posting here? I don't think you will stay retired, not even this time:)

[andymays]

Absolutely not, HBP asked if I was a Horseman or an Executive with the CHRB, and I answered Yes. That "horseman" category is pretty broad and includes owners and trainers doesn't it?


Yea but you're a synthetic guy (or gal).

On a scale of 1-10 how important are you. :D

[Just Retired]

How about you just tell us how we're wrong to want an across the board reduction in the take out rate?

DJ,

It's not about you being wrong, it's about "you" fighting your fight effectively within some basic guidelines the sport has to offer. That's why I keep asking about your successes, are they measurable and good ROI?

Here's a comparison that's very real.....there are some very sharp people involved in American Politics who insist we are in desperate need of a third party. How much time and money did the likes of Perot, Nader et al spend trying to prove their point. Who knows, maybe if one of them had joined a party they would've made a great President.

But we'll never know, they tackled it all wrong and life passed them by, while the rest of the nation just kept on tickin.

If "you" are just trying to get takeout reduced and dirt installed for the next generation, then I'm really not interested, I'd like to see some changes now, thanks.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

DJ,

It's not about you being wrong, it's about "you" fighting your fight effectively within some basic guidelines the sport has to offer. That's why I keep asking about your successes, are they measurable and good ROI?

Here's a comparison that's very real.....there are some very sharp people involved in American Politics who insist we are in desperate need of a third party. How much time and money did the likes of Perot, Nader et al spend trying to prove their point. Who knows, maybe if one of them had joined a party they would've made a great President.

But we'll never know, they tackled it all wrong and life passed them by, while the rest of the nation just kept on tickin.

If "you" are just trying to get takeout reduced and dirt installed for the next generation, then I'm really not interested, I'd like to see some changes now, thanks.
What has been the ROI on keeping takeouts high and not punishing trainers enough for drug infractions.

Why is the game dying right now, while it still thinks it is the same game with the same appeal it had 30 years ago?

[andymays]

DJ,

It's not about you being wrong, it's about "you" fighting your fight effectively within some basic guidelines the sport has to offer. That's why I keep asking about your successes, are they measurable and good ROI?

Here's a comparison that's very real.....there are some very sharp people involved in American Politics who insist we are in desperate need of a third party. How much time and money did the likes of Perot, Nader et al spend trying to prove their point. Who knows, maybe if one of them had joined a party they would've made a great President.

But we'll never know, they tackled it all wrong and life passed them by, while the rest of the nation just kept on tickin.

If "you" are just trying to get takeout reduced and dirt installed for the next generation, then I'm really not interested, I'd like to see some changes now, thanks.

It's a simple as your guy "Bob" winning at the track and telling his buddy "Sam" that he made a score and thinks he can do it again. When "word of mouth" says betting on horses is a good bet then people will show up with their money. If they go to Del Mar they need $500 just for expenses (Del Margaritas and such ($20 or $25) and then on their way home they have to go through a Highway Patrol roadblock and get a DUI. What's "word of mouth" worth on that episode?

[Relwob Owner]

Just Retired,

Reading all of your posts today, something smells really bad here and I am sure I am not the first one to post it...... All I can say is this: when I first joined, I read about trolls, board cops(turns out I kind of was one when I started), retreads, etc and I couldnt believe people would have nothing better to do than manipulate the board and pollute it while driving their own agenda. Not pointing anything at anyone but anyone who intentionally does it and hides behind a screenname to promote some sort of agenda is just kind of sad IMO.....

[Just Retired]

Why is the game dying right now, while it still thinks it is the same game with the same appeal it had 30 years ago?


Ahhh, but there's where you're wrong, NOBODY thinks it's the same game as it was 30 years ago, why would you suggest otherwise?

Instead of the takeout reducing Bob's cash flow at Fairplex, I've got a hunch it was the fact he was disctracted with the 3rd race from Charlestown on the telley and thought my might make a few bucks betting on the $2500 maiden claimers. He never had that opportunity 30 years ago, and perhaps that is where the devil is lying in the details rather than takeout or poly?

[Just Retired]

Just Retired,

Reading all of your posts today, something smells really bad here and I am sure I am not the first one to post it...... All I can say is this: when I first joined, I read about trolls, board cops(turns out I kind of was one when I started), retreads, etc and I couldnt believe people would have nothing better to do than manipulate the board and pollute it while driving their own agenda. Not pointing anything at anyone but anyone who intentionally does it and hides behind a screenname to promote some sort of agenda is just kind of sad IMO.....

Relwob,
nice to meet you.
You are number 14 in line to collect the bonus if it is proven I am anything other than just a fan who likes to discuss horseracing, identifying what's wrong with it, and effectively go about getting it corrected. And if it helps you any further, you can call me Bob, okay ;)

[DJofSD]

It's not about you being wrong, it's about "you" fighting your fight effectively within some basic guidelines the sport has to offer. That's why I keep asking about your successes, are they measurable and good ROI?

You come across as a politican that uses words for a living.

The so called sport does not offer the guidelines. The various state laws set the framework.

The only success I care about is whether or not I have a larger bankroll at the end of a the day.

Pretty soon, I will not be able to care less than I already do. I have not made a bet on a California race since opening day at Santa Anita. Before that, I skipped Hollywood and made very few bets at Del Mar. If my displeasure continues, I will probably stop handicapping altogether by the start of the Del Mar meeting. I used to feel that wild horses could not keep me away from Del Mar. That is no longer true. Matter of fact, I am kind of looking forward to not going to Del Mar at all. The summer is short and I can find lots of other things to do. Golf is a new pursuit for me. I played and hit the practice range a lot in the last four days. And I did not miss the handicapping one bit.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Ahhh, but there's where you're wrong, NOBODY thinks it's the same game as it was 30 years ago, why would you suggest otherwise?

Instead of the takeout reducing Bob's cash flow at Fairplex, I've got a hunch it was the fact he was disctracted with the 3rd race from Charlestown on the telley and thought my might make a few bucks betting on the $2500 maiden claimers. He never had that opportunity 30 years ago, and perhaps that is where the devil is lying in the details rather than takeout or poly?
If takeout were reduced he'd collectively be able to bet both and have enough money to last.

Thanks for admitting though that horseplayers don't care if they are betting on a race at California with a 40k purse or one with a 15k purse.

On that I can agree.

[Relwob Owner]

Relwob,
nice to meet you.
You are number 14 in line to collect the bonus if it is proven I am anything other than just a fan who likes to discuss horseracing, identifying what's wrong with it, and effectively go about getting it corrected. And if it helps you any further, you can call me Bob, okay ;)


Hey, I hope you are just a fan who likes to discuss racing and I look forward to reading your posts. You have to admit, though, that the "14" of us who seem to be suspicious have a right to be considering the way you have appeared on the board and presented yourself....no worries, though, because I hope I am wrong and look forward to hearing your thoughts and congratulate you on joining the best horse forum in existence IMO

[Horseplayersbet.com]

How would you vote if given a vote to increase takeout in California?

[Just Retired]

You come across as a politican that uses words for a living.

The so called sport does not offer the guidelines. The various state laws set the framework.

The only success I can about is whether or not I have a larger bankroll at the end of a the day.

Pretty soon, I will not be able to care less than I already do. I have not made a bet on a California race since opening day at Santa Anita. Before that, I skipped Hollywood and made very few bets at Del Mar. If my displeasure continues, I will probably stop handicapping altogether by the start of the Del Mar meeting. I used to feel that wild horses could not keep me away from Del Mar. That is no longer true. Matter of fact, I am kind of looking forward to not going to Del Mar at all. The summer is short and I can find lots of other things to do. Golf is a new pursuit for me. I played and hit the practice range a lot in the last four days. And I did not miss the handicapping one bit.
But DJofSD, you've got over 6,000 post on this horse racing forum, that shows me you care more than a guy who is looking forward to skipping DelMar or hasn't made a wager at Santa Anita. Come on, surely there had to be a grass race where you liked a horse at 8-1 and wanted to take shot in the past couple of months???

[Hanover1]

The guy asks what we/us would do in certain situations, then follows up with "I'd like to see some changes now", then alluding to the fact that he sees no answers on this board, beats down anyone with suggestions.
He has asked several to clarify their agendas, yet his agenda seems unfocused, offbalanced, and hidden at times....no amount of "What have you done" "What would you do" questions can hide these truths.
Sir: If you are indeed are/were a member of any organization that can/could make changes, you are doing all of us a dis-service by the smokescreens you attempt to float by us. Won't fly Orville...........man up and reveal the truth behind who you are and what you want. I personally dont buy into your posts as some sort of fishing trip, and have wasted enough time on all these threads with the same theme behind them......time to empty the mucksack...........

[Just Retired]

How would you vote if given a vote to increase takeout in California?
I'd want to know what expenses had to be covered by the takeout before I'd vote, for instance my Simulcast Facility question thrown out earlier today. Is that 2% that can be realized by shutting down the facilities, will the wagers still come in via other sources according to studies? Are there other "fat" special interest line items currently getting a piece of the takeout pie that can be done away with?

[cj's dad]

Hey, I hope you are just a fan who likes to discuss racing and I look forward to reading your posts. You have to admit, though, that the "14" of us who seem to be suspicious have a right to be considering the way you have appeared on the board and presented yourself....no worries, though, because I hope I am wrong and look forward to hearing your thoughts and congratulate you on joining the best horse forum in existence IMO

Please make that 15 !!

[Robert Goren]

If takeout were reduced he'd collectively be able to bet both and have enough money to last.

Thanks for admitting though that horseplayers don't care if they are betting on a race at California with a 40k purse or one with a 15k purse.

On that I can agree.:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
While Z and RA racing for 5 million may be interesting to watch, A lesser race with a horse I like with decent odds is more likely to get my money.

[Just Retired]

The guy asks what we/us would do in certain situations, then follows up with "I'd like to see some changes now", then alluding to the fact that he sees no answers on this board, beats down anyone with suggestions.
He has asked several to clarify their agendas, yet his agenda seems unfocused, offbalanced, and hidden at times....no amount of "What have you done" "What would you do" questions can hide these truths.
Sir: If you are indeed are/were a member of any organization that can/could make changes, you are doing all of us a dis-service by the smokescreens you attempt to float by us. Won't fly Orville...........man up and reveal the truth behind who you are and what you want. I personally dont buy into your posts as some sort of fishing trip, and have wasted enough time on all these threads with the same theme behind them......time to empty the mucksack...........


Okay, for the last time......I'm not Frank Stronach, I'm not Shapiro, I'm not with the CHRB, I don't host a radio show and I'd like to enjoy horse racing for the remaining time on earth.

I've watched and seen reports of HANA for quite a while now, and I am completely befuddled by the response of a drop in handle at LosAl after they announced an increase in pricing as being one of the group's headline accomplishments. I just don't get it, LosAl could close tomorrow, will that change the National Racing Scene any?

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Okay, for the last time......I'm not Frank Stronach, I'm not Shapiro, I'm not with the CHRB, I don't host a radio show and I'd like to enjoy horse racing for the remaining time on earth.

I've watched and seen reports of HANA for quite a while now, and I am completely befuddled by the response of a drop in handle at LosAl after they announced an increase in pricing as being one of the group's headline accomplishments. I just don't get it, LosAl could close tomorrow, will that change the National Racing Scene any?
If California fell into the ocean tomorrow the racing scene would be struggling just as much.
I've bet California racing twice this year.
Decrease takeout, and I will bet it a lot more often.
Increase takeout, and I'll start flipping channels when a race from California comes on.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I've spoken to Frank Stronach, and he is NOT Frank Stronach.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I'd want to know what expenses had to be covered by the takeout before I'd vote, for instance my Simulcast Facility question thrown out earlier today. Is that 2% that can be realized by shutting down the facilities, will the wagers still come in via other sources according to studies? Are there other "fat" special interest line items currently getting a piece of the takeout pie that can be done away with?
So you actually think that increasing takeout will increase the amount of money that is collectively lost by horseplayers betting California tracks over the course of year?

You are clueless...and I'm being nice.

[Robert Goren]

Okay, for the last time......I'm not Frank Stronach, I'm not Shapiro, I'm not with the CHRB, I don't host a radio show and I'd like to enjoy horse racing for the remaining time on earth.

I've watched and seen reports of HANA for quite a while now, and I am completely befuddled by the response of a drop in handle at LosAl after they announced an increase in pricing as being one of the group's headline accomplishments. I just don't get it, LosAl could close tomorrow, will that change the National Racing Scene any?Probably not, but I would hope that racing would get the message that raising the take a couple of % points is not increase revenue even in the short run.

[Just Retired]

So you actually think that increasing takeout will increase the amount of money that is collectively lost by horseplayers betting California tracks over the course of year?

You are clueless...and I'm being nice.


Gee, thanks for being so nice.

I never offered an opinion that increasing takeout will increase the amount of money......so, please don't put words in my mouth, I've got enough trouble right now without you distorting things.

Can we change topics away from takeout and synthetics and discuss another topic I don't readily see in your archives here?

How do you feel about TVG and HRTV?
Too much, not enough, good idea, bad presentation, etc.
Should be more tracks, less tracks, same tracks overlapping?
thanks.

[andymays]

Gee, thanks for being so nice.

I never offered an opinion that increasing takeout will increase the amount of money......so, please don't put words in my mouth, I've got enough trouble right now without you distorting things.

Can we change topics away from takeout and synthetics and discuss another topic I don't readily see in your archives here?

How do you feel about TVG and HRTV?
Too much, not enough, good idea, bad presentation, etc.
Should be more tracks, less tracks, same tracks overlapping?
thanks.


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=56868&highlight=refunded

Read it. It's entertaining and enlightening.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Gee, thanks for being so nice.

I never offered an opinion that increasing takeout will increase the amount of money......so, please don't put words in my mouth, I've got enough trouble right now without you distorting things.

Can we change topics away from takeout and synthetics and discuss another topic I don't readily see in your archives here?

How do you feel about TVG and HRTV?
Too much, not enough, good idea, bad presentation, etc.
Should be more tracks, less tracks, same tracks overlapping?
thanks.
Why would you even consider raising takeout then? Now you are being very insincere at best.

If you want to increase purses, why not try to reduce takeout? Would you vote for a takeout reduction to try to improve the bottom line?

[cj]

Clearly, the horsemen and tracks were short sighted and stupid to give away so much of the takeout years ago. Now, when times are tough and pools are dwindling, they think they can get it back. It just doesn't work that way.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Clearly, the horsemen and tracks were short sighted and stupid to give away so much of the takeout years ago. Now, when times are tough and pools are dwindling, they think they can get it back. It just doesn't work that way.

Bingo.

[wisconsin]

Clearly, the horsemen and tracks were short sighted and stupid to give away so much of the takeout years ago. Now, when times are tough and pools are dwindling, they think they can get it back. It just doesn't work that way.

The pools are about the same, but the on-track handle is pathetic. That's killing the horsemen via a much smaller slice of the mutuel pie.

[Robert Goren]

Gee, thanks for being so nice.

I never offered an opinion that increasing takeout will increase the amount of money......so, please don't put words in my mouth, I've got enough trouble right now without you distorting things.

Can we change topics away from takeout and synthetics and discuss another topic I don't readily see in your archives here?

How do you feel about TVG and HRTV?
Too much, not enough, good idea, bad presentation, etc.
Should be more tracks, less tracks, same tracks overlapping?
thanks. Good luck with that. Once posters here get started on takeout, they never let up. And they aren't going give up on synthetics easily either.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

The pools are about the same, but the on-track handle is pathetic. That's killing the horsemen via a much smaller slice of the mutuel pie.
Horsemen in many jurisdictions are also receiving subsidies from slots.
Handle by the way spurted up thanks to internet betting to begin with. But we've seen a decline lately (I'd call severe) because racing has decided not to compete as a form of gambling.

[Dan H]

but an article in the "San Diego Tribune." this weekend described one panel's fifteen year vision for the fairgrounds that surround the Del Mar racetrack.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/feb/14/proposal-for-fairgrounds-yields-plenty-of/

Last week was the deadline for the public to send comments on a 4,500-page study analyzing the environmental effects of a proposed $300 million expansion over 15 years at the state-owned fairgrounds.

A master plan for the project includes building a four-story condominium-hotel and conference center; an exhibit hall with rooftop sports fields; a health club; a three-story office building; a fire station; and a 48-foot-tall electronic sign along Interstate 5.

Long-term projects include a parking garage, seasonal train platform and new stables and racetrack amenities.

The plan leads me to believe the state is looking to surround the race track with other-than-gaming revenue streams. Do not forget that California voters rejected a proposition to allow slots at our major tracks.

Note the picture inside the hyperlinked article suggests the plans include widening the turf course at Del Mar.

I suppose Del Mar is unique, because it is state-owned, but it wouldn't take long for privately owned tracks to copy/negate the success/failure of Del Mar's vision of their racing environment in 2025.

[Stillriledup]

Let's say you're successful in your endeavors and takeout is reduced across the board by 2012. reduced from what to what?

Do your best to describe to me what the national racing scene will look like then, please? broad

For comparison, I think there are about 50 tracks running 9 races per day now all across the country, will that remain about the same? why would it not?

For comparison, there are some huge pools on the West Coast, even with artificial surfaces, will that continue to be that way when compared to states like La and Ky for example? The betting pools in So Cal are HALF of what they used to be. There would NEVER be any exotic pool in so cal on any day of the week that was under 100k and now we see them all the time.

Night time and daytime races are everywhere, do you forsee that being the successful model? dont know

What will happen to the off-shore wagers, will they convert and impact the tote board and pools +/-? If takeout goes down at every track at the same rates, this won't matter.

Will new owners join the game because of reduced takeout? New owners might not conciously join because of lower takeout, but with lower takeout, more bettors will join the game and the bettors we have will be able to play more and play longer. This is not about owners, its about bettors. There's always going to be owners with money to burn who use horse race ownership to satisfy ego and to kill time...there are more owners who can afford to lose money year after year and stay in the game than bettors who can lose year after year and stay around.

Etc. Etc. Etc. You get the idea, I just want to know what it'll look like when you win your battles, thanks.


I answered some of your questions in the quote box, see above


Its not about 'winning battles' its about making a wager at a competitive price. NFL football bettors are wagering at approximately a 5% takeout, racetrack bettors are gettting raked for 4 times that amount.

The only reason there are 'battles' is because owners and track management don't work WITH bettors and they are constantly working against them.

[Just Retired]

Stillriledup......did you really mean to say this?

"This is not about owners, its about bettors. There's always going to be owners with money to burn who use horse race ownership to satisfy ego and to kill time...there are more owners who can afford to lose money year after year and stay in the game than bettors who can lose year after year and stay around."

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay, I stand corrected. Obviously you have an agenda.


My nature is to do as my father instructed me:

"Trust everyone.
(but always cut the cards.)"

[Stillriledup]

Stillriledup......did you really mean to say this?

"This is not about owners, its about bettors. There's always going to be owners with money to burn who use horse race ownership to satisfy ego and to kill time...there are more owners who can afford to lose money year after year and stay in the game than bettors who can lose year after year and stay around."

You don't think that's true? Bettors have been ignored far too long. Owners have much more power and pull with the racing boards, stewards and racetrack owners. Heck, even some racetrack owners are big horse owners too. When they say racing is the sport of kings, they don't mean that the bettors are the kings.

[cj]

The pools are about the same, but the on-track handle is pathetic. That's killing the horsemen via a much smaller slice of the mutuel pie.

Exactly, and it was the short sightedness of the horsemen and tracks that gave birth to the whole system. Hmmm, short sighted, not much has changed I see.

[DJofSD]

Short sighted and intellectually lazy along with not understanding that technology should be adopted and not feared.