drosselmeyer

[bisket]

i think mott may have a good chance at winning the derby this yeay with this guy :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

He can get the distance no problem but liike Watchmaker says, he's kinda slow---hasn't beyered out of the 80's yet. I like the trainer and hopefully he can bring this horse along. Turns out he's a good dirt horse.

[FlyinLate]

I put a small wager on him in futures.
After Winslow Homer had the shin injury he became my horse to root for.
We'll see if he's the real deal Saturday.

[Bobby Seller]

I have mixed feelings. He's certainly a nice horse who can get 9 or 10 furlongs.
His keeneland race was among my favorite by a 2yo.


http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/3765/vlcsnap2010021420h45m35.png

[bisket]

i think he handles the crowd in the risen star without a problem.

[WinterTriangle]

Liking a horse for the derby, and liking a horse for "this" race are two different things to me. I'm thinking Dross might need a little longer.

[WinterTriangle]

I keep remembering how Quality Road took this last year in 1:47:72 I think he set a track record.

I don't have PPs yet, but I would not underestimate Stay Put, Northern Giant who I think can kick some butt here, as well as Tempted to Tapit. I give the assmussen horse letsgetitonmon some credit because of lots of stakes experience against these, and that jock/trainer combo is doing pretty well at FG.

I'm still looking for an excuse to play Bravo Whiskey, I have to look at PPs and find one.

[Dahoss9698]

I keep remembering how Quality Road took this last year in 1:47:72 I think he set a track record.



Quality Road won the Florida Derby, a 9 furlong race at Gulfstream. Drosselmeyer is running in The Risen Star, an 8.5 furlong race at Fair Grounds.

[WinterTriangle]

Quality Road won the Florida Derby, a 9 furlong race at Gulfstream. Drosselmeyer is running in The Risen Star, an 8.5 furlong race at Fair Grounds.

Well, that still doesn't change my mind. :)

Still like the picks I gave in my previous post.

I still like Drosselmeyer for a derby horse, just not to win in this race at this distance.

[joanied]

my two cents (which is all it's worth:D )...

Risen Star:
Bravo Whiskey (think this one is a 'dark horse')
Northern Giant
Drosselmeyer (I hate this colt's name:faint: )
Ron the Greek (time to regress a bit?)

Southwest;
Conveyance (don't think he's a Derby horse, but like him in here)
Dublin (first race back after his throat surgery...might come up a bit short)
Mission Impazable

Fountain of Youth (where IS that thing...I could use a long drink from it:D )
Aikenite (I don't know why...just giving him another shot)
Buddy's Saint
Lost Apptitude

This isn't Derby stuff but...

The Mineshaft should be a way fun race:jump:

in the Mineshaft H:
Friesian Fire
Gen. Quarters
Giant Oak

and of course, all eyes will be on Gio Ponti at TB...I have him to win with Mambo Meister to place.

My very, very long shot hunch play for Saturday...Lonesome Dove is one of our all time favorites...we have the DVD and haven't watched for a long time...just last night we popped it in and then today I see a horse in the 12th at Fairgrounds...Augustus Macray...$2.00 to win at 30-1 :eek:

Biancone has Pulsion with Mike Smith riding...aaarrggghhh:bang: :mad: :ThmbDown: ...I don't like that man, don't trust him and wish Smith wouldn't ride his horses:faint:

Best of luck everyone...and have a way cool weekend:ThmbUp:

[GaryG]

I'll worry about the Derby later, but for now Drosselmeyer is a key play for me in the Risen Star.

[PhantomOnTour]

It is my opinion that Drosselmeyer will crush them tomorrow at FG.

[Dahoss9698]

That's two people now that have mentioned Bravo Whiskey. What am I missing with this one? Nice debut, but he hasn't beaten a horse home in his two races after the debut. Nice name maybe?

I like Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star.

[Robert Fischer]

Risen Star is an interesting race. Drosselmeyer is clearly the top dog but you have a lot of good closers in the race, and then only a couple good ones up front.
Discreetly Mine and Tempted to Tapit threaten to factor here if no one good wants to join them. Interesting to see JJ on the Pletcher horse as well. Cohen is capable of closely stalking a slow pace, or leading if Castellano or some other horse does not establish position.

Would love to see Ron The Greek sit midpack and still show that freaky turn of foot over this trip, although I am doubtful and he'll probably be overbet.

The asmussen letsgititonmon should be a good indicator of how the trip played out.

[bisket]

that allowance win at gulfstream for drosselmeyer was an impressive performance. i know it wasn't in a stakes race, but its the best race i've seen a 3 year old run this year (meaning since january). although if discreetly mine gets out to an easy lead he could take this race.

[Watcher]

-peu9gkt8t0

[WinterTriangle]

Watchmaker says, he's kinda slow---hasn't beyered out of the 80's yet.

Well Drosselmeyer had the rail and still couldn't get past.

[CincyHorseplayer]

2nd race off a decent layoff and a win,coming back in 20 days while pairing up top figs from 2yo season.Slower interim work?Classic bounce pattern.He'll come back better 3rd out.Mott is a 17% on this move anyway.No shame in this race IMO.

[bisket]

2nd race off a decent layoff and a win,coming back in 20 days while pairing up top figs from 2yo season.Slower interim work?Classic bounce pattern.He'll come back better 3rd out.Mott is a 17% on this move anyway.No shame in this race IMO.
thats the way i see it. drosselmayer is still high on my list. as far as discreetly mine is concerned, i've watched horses on the lead get 24 and 48 in 3 year old stakes at fairgrounds and win on a regular basis. drosselmeyer is on course for peek derby day, he wasn't going to get past speed running that pace at 1 1/16 mile. dross was gaining late; i like that. he's gotta get the earnings though.

[Dahoss9698]

Well Drosselmeyer had the rail and still couldn't get past.

I hope you never found the excuse you were looking for to play Bravo Whiskey.

[bisket]

after today drosselmeyer is still in the tri along with lookin at lucky. eskendeyra is heading in that direction http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygQvB6OjHOU

[bisket]

one other horsey for the tri. i still haven't given up on buddy's saint. he got a horrible trip in the foutain. so i'll still keep an eye on him.

[WinterTriangle]

I hope you never found the excuse you were looking for to play Bravo Whiskey.

Lot of people like that horse. It's more a pedigree thing though. there are lots of things to like about Bravo. Smart Strike and Deputy Minister for one. % of C (% of progeny who win stakes at classic distances) is almost 14% on sire side, and about 11% on dam's sire side. That's very high, esp finding one who has that on both sides.
Having Neil Howard for trainer doesn't hurt, IMHO. :)


BTW, bisket, I still like Drosselmeyer. He's still on my derby list.

What I said in this topic that I didn't think he would win *this* race.

I don't think a horse has to win to be a derby contender, and he ran good off layoff. Needs to get some speed and earnings

[Dahoss9698]

Lot of people like that horse.



His fans must not bet much as he was 153-1 today and failed to beat a horse for the 3rd straight race.

[WinterTriangle]

His fans must not bet much as he was 153-1 today and failed to beat a horse for the 3rd straight race.

and Ron the Greek took tons of people's money today after winning at a track on a day speed wasn't holding and the race fell apart. And Drosselmeyer took a lot of money, too.

So--------what's your point?:D


If I get a choice to put a small wager on a 99-1 longshot that I like, over a 3-1 or odds-on chalk that has no chance of hitting the board, I'll take the former.

[PhantomOnTour]

With all due respect, Neil Howard ain't all that. In fact, he is the single most underlaid trainer at FG and has been for years. He's winning at 6% this year, and wasn't much better last year. When Albarado rides his horses are unbettable.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Discreetly Mine caught a speed favoring FG track today, period. Top three ran 1-2-3 all the way around in the Risen Star. Earlier in the card frontrunners were going :21 and change (very fast at FG) and holding on. Stay Put ran well vs the bias.

[WinterTriangle]

With all due respect, Neil Howard ain't all that. In fact, he is the single most underlaid trainer at FG and has been for years. He's winning at 6% this year, and wasn't much better last year. When Albarado rides his horses are unbettable.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Discreetly Mine caught a speed favoring FG track today, period. Top three ran 1-2-3 all the way around in the Risen Star. Earlier in the card frontrunners were going :21 and change (very fast at FG) and holding on. Stay Put ran well vs the bias.

Thanks phantom, actually, I play FG about 3 times a year, for prep races. Therefore, I will defer to your insight, as I truly don't know the track. I was not aware of howard's stats, should have looked, but I was going more on what i think of his general abilities, albeit maybe that is more in the past.

I like Stay Put a lot.....glad to have some feedback on him.

Derby preps are purely an educational experience AFAIC. I actually didn't wager today, good thing, too :lol: I was pretty off.

I'm building my list though, and that's where my focus is, although I look at what was gong on last year at this time......then fast forward to actual TC races.......not a lot left standing. :)

[PhantomOnTour]

Mambo In Seattle and Grasshopper are 2 examples of Neil Howard FG underlays. Both ran well in NY (Mambo almost won the Travers but was bobbed by Col John and Grasshopper almost beat Street Sense). The local folks bet them through the floor when they came to FG...oops.

Like your idea of building a list for the Derby. How bout Ice Box from the FOY at GP? May be just a plodder but he ran wide and well to get 5th or so today. Nice distance pedigree and getting better every time. Stay Put may fall into the same category...who knows. Keeping Drosselmeyer in there too as he didnt disgrace himself. Conveyance (whom I have a future bet on along with Eskendereya) doesnt appear to want the Derby trip, even though he won at OP today.

[Dahoss9698]

and Ron the Greek took tons of people's money today after winning at a track on a day speed wasn't holding and the race fell apart. And Drosselmeyer took a lot of money, too.

So--------what's your point?:D


If I get a choice to put a small wager on a 99-1 longshot that I like, over a 3-1 or odds-on chalk that has no chance of hitting the board, I'll take the former.

What's my point? I think it's pretty obvious. Obviously it's always easier to talk about horses that have no chance of hitting the board after the race, as you have pointed out. When I asked about this horse before the race, no one made a case for him. I get it, how could you?

I'm the last one to talk someone off a longshot. But when you have a horse that hasn't beat a horse in two consecutive allowance races. They probably don't belong in a stake, regardless of the price.

Ron The Greek last race did fall apart, but he was very playable off his race at Remington. He ran a sneaky good race and finished full of run. He got the trip he needed and won. I crushed him last race and posted about it on another board.

All things considered, he didn't run bad today. The pacesetter (who I also had a nice win bet on) crawled early and no one made up any ground. The top two ran 1-2 around the track.

I guess what I'm getting at is there is a lot to be learned from actually watching races. Stuff that pedigrees don't tell you. When you're not betting it's always easy to pick your favorite horse based on whatever angle. But, when you're investing your money, it's a whole different ballgame.

[CincyHorseplayer]

and Ron the Greek took tons of people's money today after winning at a track on a day speed wasn't holding and the race fell apart. And Drosselmeyer took a lot of money, too.

So--------what's your point?:D


If I get a choice to put a small wager on a 99-1 longshot that I like, over a 3-1 or odds-on chalk that has no chance of hitting the board, I'll take the former.


Absolutely.

This IMO was a wide open race.I had 6 horses that I thought could win it.The Greek I didn't like for the reasons you stated,Dross had just won off a decent layoff,and the winner was a 1 sprint stretchout,2nd off a layoff at 5/2.All underlays IMO.I bet a 53-1 shot in here because the odds were absurd in the other direction.Losing strategy to bet chalk in these wide open affairs:ThmbUp:

[PhantomOnTour]

Drosselmeyer has an ugly high-kneed action that looks far from fluid. I havent written him off for the Derby yet but he needs a rebound in his next start. He didnt run badly and didnt quit but his action worries me.

[Robert Fischer]

Drosselmeyer has an ugly high-kneed action that looks far from fluid. I havent written him off for the Derby yet but he needs a rebound in his next start. He didnt run badly and didnt quit but his action worries me.

It's not the worse action you'll see, but noteworthy was that I had a strong impression that Drosselmeyer's action- (upon the first video review by me - I got to see it once and then had to go to the hospital for a few days, but will watch it again and note if I just was seeing something that isn't there) - resembled his turf efforts where he was clearly as willing as his rivals and interestingly arguably demonstrating visually equivalent stride "turnover" but lacked "traction". I'm such a rookie, I don't recall complaints about Fairgrounds being a surface that gives horses trouble handling it, other than maybe off-tracks.
The arm-chair know it alls are already shoing-in quarter inch bends. (which again, relies on some nut from the I-Net's 1st impression, the perceptiveness of the trainer even if true, the owner/trainers feelings about bends, the actual effectiveness of bends, and the degree that wherever DROSS runs next even consistently publicizes shoe info :faint: )

The other first impression was that his willingness/stride turnover was greatest in several spurts rather than a sustained "smooth" run. Which is typical to varying degrees in thoroughbreds


anywho this is all fun speculation, and I am breaking out the kid's college funds and calling the dirty appraisal guy for a 3rd mortgage, but common sense says the vast majority of your opinion should be on the actual performance in the actual context of the race

bad info + good info = bad info

[bisket]

dross did a good job considering the track. its not a track thats conducive to a horse thats capable of a 23 second 1/4 during a route. it punishes horses with acceleration. horse that run evenly have an edge there. especially if they get an easy lead. a horse that relies on that fast 1/4 to catch the pace just can't do it on that surface. thats why in my opinion its very tough to gauge the quality of horses coming from there.

[toussaud]

This is where the benefit of actually watching alot of races comes into play.

Drussle was originally meant to be a turf horse. his first two races were on turf and his third was on all weather. his maiden ace at churchill got switched to the main track and he beat some horses and did it looking pretty good on dirt.

the fact that his trainer originally thought of him as a turfer told me all i needed to know in the first place.

Not so much that they thoughts of him as a turfer. I still think nordic truce is the best 3YO in the country right now. But nordic truce is bred to run on the turf.

Dr. meyer isn't. that is about as dirt as pedigree can get. which tells me they probably got him, saw how he worked on dirt, and switched him to turf becuase turf maiden races are easier than dirt maiden races.

[Robert Fischer]

This is where the benefit of actually watching alot of races comes into play.

Drussle was originally meant to be a turf horse. his first two races were on turf and his third was on all weather. his maiden ace at churchill got switched to the main track and he beat some horses and did it looking pretty good on dirt.

the fact that his trainer originally thought of him as a turfer told me all i needed to know in the first place.

Not so much that they thoughts of him as a turfer. I still think nordic truce is the best 3YO in the country right now. But nordic truce is bred to run on the turf.

Dr. meyer isn't. that is about as dirt as pedigree can get. which tells me they probably got him, saw how he worked on dirt, and switched him to turf becuase turf maiden races are easier than dirt maiden races.

I disagree with some of your opinions here, but I do agree with the sentiment.

Drosselmeyer's is not in any way shape or form an extreme one-dimensional dirt pedigree. His pedigree is very balanced. Distorted Humor is a little more versatile than most give credit to. Moscow Ballet is a solid turf influence.

You are "reading between the lines" in terms of trainer intent. This can lead to dangerous assumptions, but I think the truth isn't very far from what you came up with.

After the fact, there is a running debate on whether Drosselmeyer handled the turf surface. Those who "actually watch a lot of races" may form an opinion on whether his action, traction and satisfaction were efficient on the grass. In this case the turf efforts are separate from the Keeneland polytrack where he appeared to handle the surface better.

Aside from Drosselmeyer having a pedigree best described as somewhere between "versatile" and "turfy", other clues lie in the trainer's own specific tendencies. Mott is not at all averse to to using the turf to prepare or even campaign talented horses in his care. Mott is also a trainer willing to take advantage of polytrack (all weather etc..) stakes in a 3yo derby prep schedule. Mott is nott a "Dirt or Die" trainer.

There is however an anticlimactic notion to be extracted from "between the lines" if you absolutely feel you must, namely, that Mott's decision to start on the turf is primarily a reflection of being a route horse. One with enough of a turf pedigree to justify trying the turf and should talent and good fortune go smoothly, - consider the all weather or even turf stakes as part of the 3yo prep campaign. Following the turf efforts where the horse did not seem to relish the surface, he appears no worse for the education and there should be enough confidence regarding the Keeneland surface.

[bisket]

his gulfstream effort was only topped by eskendyra. mott frequently runs colts on both surfaces. reading something into the change of surface wouldn't give you an accurate picture of what's going on imop. the winner of the fairgrounds race did it the same way many other horses have at that track. it was a good effort for dross. he picked up some graded earnings and is schedule to peak derby day.

[Stevie Belmont]

Drosselmeyer Heads The Dwyer (GII) This Saturday At Belmont Park

[eastie]

how has he been training ?

[Stevie Belmont]

3 works since Louisiana Derby at Keeneland

Looks good

[bisket]

he's my horse in the belmont. i know everyone is going to be all lover ice box, but that race has drosselmeyer written all over it. you want a horse that continues to chug away, and thats drosselmeyer. i hope he finishes 2nd or 3rd saturday. so the odds will really good at the belmont.

[bisket]

he's my horse in the belmont. i know everyone is going to be all lover ice box, but that race has drosselmeyer written all over it. you want a horse that continues to chug away, and thats drosselmeyer. i hope he finishes 2nd or 3rd saturday. so the odds will really good at the belmont.
winter you doubt da bisket?

[Tom]

Kudos for sticking with him.:ThmbUp:
I never saw a race from I thought was worth a shit.
Still haven't.:bang:

[Dahoss9698]

winter you doubt da bisket?

Actually it seems like da bisket doubts da bisket.

good play slew
da belmont
dropped some cash on this one. why did nick have to run 2?
1$ tri box
:5: :6: :7: :10: :12:
5$ ex box
:7: :10:
2$ tri box
:5: :7: :10:
10$ win :10:

[WinterTriangle]

Actually it seems like da bisket doubts da bisket.

Good try, Dahoss.

Bisket has been on Drosselmeyer since before the KY derby, posts on other sites, and picks here don't mean those were his only plays. He's posted about this horse for a while now, here, other forums, and in private to friends.

Count on you though, to rain on his parade.


Bisket gets new shoes! :jump: :jump:

sorry I always kid you about staying loyal to your horse. You did it with Richard's Kid and made a bundle on that longshot too. I won't tease ya anymore.

[bisket]

Kudos for sticking with him.:ThmbUp:
I never saw a race from I thought was worth a shit.
Still haven't.:bang:
he has reminded me of summer bird all spring. he just needs more distance than 1 1/8 mile.

[Dahoss9698]

Good try, Dahoss.

Bisket has been on Drosselmeyer since before the KY derby, posts on other sites, and picks here don't mean those were his only plays. He's posted about this horse for a while now, here, other forums, and in private to friends.

Count on you though, to rain on his parade.


Bisket gets new shoes! :jump: :jump:

sorry I always kid you about staying loyal to your horse. You did it with Richard's Kid and made a bundle on that longshot too. I won't tease ya anymore.

He made a nice call before the Derby. Just thought it was interesting he didn't cash in any of his posted bets. Silly me to think anyone actually bets what they post.

You guys make quite the potent team.

[Red Knave]

YARB
(Yet Another Red Board)
but here's the proof

[Dahoss9698]

Great job Red Knave.

[Tom]

Got yourself some extra coffee money, huh? ;):lol:


Nice hit!

[bisket]

anyone doubting my betting should know i never take the "safe" route to collecting. some bets are just throwing a bone on a race, and some i expect to collect on. today, i expected to collect big, and bet accordingly. the same goes for the derby. i missed by a horse today, but theres always the next race.

[Red Knave]

Got yourself some extra coffee money, huh? ;):lol:


Nice hit!
I can stake you to 2 or 3 jugs at Toga, Tom.

To paraphrase the immkortal james brown, "I feel good!".

;)

[Red Knave]

I can stake you to 2 or 3 jugs at Toga, Tom.

To paraphrase the immkortal james brown, "I feel good!".

;)
Geez, somebody's got some 'splainin' and spellin' to do

To paraphrase the immortal James Brown, "I feel good!".

[cj's dad]

Hey RK - r ya comin to Toga this year ya big lug ??

cj and Justin will be there (and me of course)

[joanied]

anyone doubting my betting should know i never take the "safe" route to collecting. some bets are just throwing a bone on a race, and some i expect to collect on. today, i expected to collect big, and bet accordingly. the same goes for the derby. i missed by a horse today, but theres always the next race.

bisket...you sang the praises of Drosselmeyer since day one...you done:ThmbUp: good, dude...after I heard about his egg bar shoes, I dismissed him...although he looked good in the post parade...I had my sights on First Dude to win...
so tell me...did da bisket get new shoes:jump:

[bisket]

i knew about the hoof, but i knew he would be ok for the race. they caught it enough time beforehand, and stated early in the week he wouldn't be wearing the bar shoes. although i didn't collect because i put to many horses in my trifecta and didn't put enough $ on the horses i really liked: dross, fly down and stay put. it was a tough call before the race about whether to eliminate interactif or not. i chose wrong. if i eliminate him; fly down would have been in the exacta box along with dross and stay put. heres my wager
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71301&page=2
i have a new pair of shoes; i need a new pair of lucky underwear. mrs. bisket threw away my lucky underwear a few months ago. she said after 13 years it was time :( . those boxers did me well over the years. many big paydays and through some serious stomach virus' :D ;) its been a tough few months betting wise ever since ;) :D

[joanied]

i knew about the hoof, but i knew he would be ok for the race. they caught it enough time beforehand, and stated early in the week he wouldn't be wearing the bar shoes. although i didn't collect because i put to many horses in my trifecta and didn't put enough $ on the horses i really liked: dross, fly down and stay put. it was a tough call before the race about whether to eliminate interactif or not. i chose wrong. if i eliminate him; fly down would have been in the exacta box along with dross and stay put. heres my wager
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71301&page=2
i have a new pair of shoes; i need a new pair of lucky underwear. mrs. bisket threw away my lucky underwear a few months ago. she said after 13 years it was time :( . those boxers did me well over the years. many big paydays and through some serious stomach virus' :D ;) its been a tough few months betting wise ever since ;) :D

:eek: thanks for sharing, bisket :lol: ...if ya still had those lucky boxers, you'd have had room for all the horses in your tri...instead of tossing those things,
Mrs. Bisket shoulda put them in an air tight container;)

yer funny:ThmbUp:

[Stevie Belmont]

I have followed this horse closely. We watched him develop over the spring. He looked to be getting better and better. And bang wins the Belmont Stakes...

I backed this guy in prior races. The bar shoes in the morning was a turn off, so I opted not use him here. The feet worried me and I did not want to go that route again. I can't believe it. It was a non-issue.

Congrats to all that backed him and WinStar farm on another huge win.

[Robert Fischer]

He made a nice call before the Derby. Just thought it was interesting he didn't cash in any of his posted bets. Silly me to think anyone actually bets what they post.

You guys make quite the potent team.

I actually agree with Dahoss :jump:[QUE R.E.M. song]"It's the end of tha world as we know it"[/R.E.M]:rolleyes:

while the Red-Faced, red-board is good for 1 FREE smile from even the stingiest grinches, and does deserves honerable mention (this is tongue in cheek- nice pick Bisket:ThmbUp:)
- possibly the most interesting story here is whether what appeared to be poor traction on the turf surface for Drosselmeyer, and whether it's an individual issue with traction(shoe??)/hoof confirmation or genetics? or.......whether there has actually been problems dating back significant enough for Mottto have attempted a lower stress/impact early campaign.

[bisket]

heres the bottom line. he wasn't asked for anything in the mornings all spring until last month. so yeah there may have been hoof issues, which only explains why he ran on turf in the first place. i really liked the way he was working the month of may. his fastest work all spring was immediately after a 1 1/8 mile race.
heres a work search from drf
http://drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=07013466

[Space Monkey]

BISKIT!!! When Dross won I said to daughter Ruff:

biskit had this horse from the beginning,,,good for him!!

You thunk tooo much my friend :(

[bisket]

BISKIT!!! When Dross won I said to daughter Ruff:



You thunk tooo much my friend :(
i knew i had 10-1 in the winners circle, and didn't want to miss the tri. thats the way i play, and this happens sometimes..... yes its frustrating :bang: you are correct i kinda syched myself out on this one. :faint:

[Dahoss9698]

I actually agree with Dahoss :jump:[QUE R.E.M. song]"It's the end of tha world as we know it"[/R.E.M]:rolleyes:

while the Red-Faced, red-board is good for 1 FREE smile from even the stingiest grinches, and does deserves honerable mention (this is tongue in cheek- nice pick Bisket:ThmbUp:)
- possibly the most interesting story here is whether what appeared to be poor traction on the turf surface for Drosselmeyer, and whether it's an individual issue with traction(shoe??)/hoof confirmation or genetics? or.......whether there has actually been problems dating back significant enough for Mottto have attempted a lower stress/impact early campaign.

I'm not really sure what you are saying here. But, the only point I was trying to make is horseplayers stand behind their opinions by betting them. You don't win any money for internet opinions. I realize everyone doesn't bet and that is fine.

But I assume bisket is a horseplayer. If I liked a horse for a race a month or two in advance, then the horse wins and I don't bet him....then it means nothing. And if I actually bet the race and bet another horse to win, I don't see how you take credit for anything.

[bisket]

my win bet isn't necessarily on the horse who i think has the greatest chance to win. its obvious you have a different philosiphy on betting than i do. i post my bets because i think just saying i like this horse doesn't help others. if you follow what i do you will know that i don't post bets to impress anyone. i give and take information with many people. i don't have an agenda. i would normally ignore you, but i think its pretty crummy the way you follow winter triangle around and bully her constantly. so in this instance i'll explain this to you. winter triangle knows how i play, and i tell her who i think will win. i thought the odds on stay put warrented money on him to win and in the exacta. it was a tough call to not include fly down in the exacta, but i didn't want to miss the trifecta. which is the bet i base my plays on. all the others are basically savers. you will see that i put the majority of my money on the two with the longest odds that i LIKED. i took money from the horse with the shortest odds in my trifecta to add interactif, and it cost me a 5$ exacta on the first two finishers. i would usually put 5$ on 3 horses in an exacta box for a 30$ bet when i'm going all in on a race. this whole wager was based on the fact that i was pretty sure that drosselmeyer was gonna win at 10-1. betting 10 or 20$ to win on a 10-1 horse is a worthless endeavor in my opinion. if you look at my wager you will see the 3 that i liked most was dross, stay put, and fly down.

[Space Monkey]

I'm strictly an exacta player nowadays. The ex usually has at least a 5% lower takeout than the tri, is easier to hit, and it keeps you away from the tax man. Since the tri is the most popular exotic bet, the tracks keep the takeout high. I haven't seen a whole lot of value in trifecta payoffs lately. i'd much rather load up on a few exacta combinations than invest the same $ spreading out on the tri. I will also play my key horse to win if the odds are over 5-1. A friend of mine loved Winchester in the Manhattan. Like you biskit, he didn't cash a ticket. Whats wrong with $10 or $20 to win on a 10 or 20-1 horse? Thats a scenario that I long ago vowed wouldn't happen to me anymore.

[bisket]

when i think i have a race pegged i go for it. the trifecta offers value when an unexpected horse finishes first. not so much value if odds on or second choice finishes first. why? because the majority of the trifecta pool is wheeled bets with the favorte finishing first. i only bet a tri wheel if i think odds on will finish 1st and second. i then up the wager amount. a great example of this type of wager is the met mile. i collected on a 10$ trifecta for a net of 300$ on that race.

[Dahoss9698]

my win bet isn't necessarily on the horse who i think has the greatest chance to win. its obvious you have a different philosiphy on betting than i do. i post my bets because i think just saying i like this horse doesn't help others. if you follow what i do you will know that i don't post bets to impress anyone. i give and take information with many people. i don't have an agenda. i would normally ignore you, but i think its pretty crummy the way you follow winter triangle around and bully her constantly. so in this instance i'll explain this to you. winter triangle knows how i play, and i tell her who i think will win. i thought the odds on stay put warrented money on him to win and in the exacta. it was a tough call to not include fly down in the exacta, but i didn't want to miss the trifecta. which is the bet i base my plays on. all the others are basically savers. you will see that i put the majority of my money on the two with the longest odds that i LIKED. i took money from the horse with the shortest odds in my trifecta to add interactif, and it cost me a 5$ exacta on the first two finishers. i would usually put 5$ on 3 horses in an exacta box for a 30$ bet when i'm going all in on a race. this whole wager was based on the fact that i was pretty sure that drosselmeyer was gonna win at 10-1. betting 10 or 20$ to win on a 10-1 horse is a worthless endeavor in my opinion. if you look at my wager you will see the 3 that i liked most was dross, stay put, and fly down.

Your whining is getting funny. The same person I "follow around and bully" was pm'ing me just 3 weeks ago asking for handicapping help. I thought I explained my position well enough that even you could understand it. Guess not.

If you want to thump your chest fine. But gamblers don't thump their chest when they lose. Like I said, you guys make a potent team. :lol:

[JPinMaryland]

... the trifecta offers value when an unexpected horse finishes first. not so much value if odds on or second choice finishes first... i only bet a tri wheel if i think odds on will finish 1st and second....

what is it I am missing here? It only offers value if the chalk doesnt win and you only wheel if chalk will finish first or second? seriously, can you explain a little more?

[bisket]

what is it I am missing here? It only offers value if the chalk doesnt win and you only wheel if chalk will finish first or second? seriously, can you explain a little more?
the majority of money in the trifecta pool are wheeled bets with the favorite most prominate in the first two finishing positions. so if you are playing the trifecta on a regular basis you will go broke doing it like that. i box horses the majority of the time because of this. the only time i will wheel a trifecta is if i am almost positive the favorite will win. i then increase my wager amount on each ticket and play fewer tickets.

[Dahoss9698]

the majority of money in the trifecta pool are wheeled bets with the favorite most prominate in the first two finishing positions.

Just curious what you are basing this on. Any sort of proof, or is this an opinion?

[Bettowin]

Just curious what you are basing this on. Any sort of proof, or is this an opinion?

Don't know how to prove it without someone with a big database but it does fall into the common sense category especially on days where there are a lot of "big day bettors".

I do remember reading a somewhat related study on P3's that paid much more when the favorite lost the last leg. Human nature is to want to be alive as long as they can and hate to single a horse in the first leg so they look for huge favorites that can close out a P3 or P4.

[Dahoss9698]

Don't know how to prove it without someone with a big database but it does fall into the common sense category especially on days where there are a lot of "big day bettors".

I do remember reading a somewhat related study on P3's that paid much more when the favorite lost the last leg. Human nature is to want to be alive as long as they can and hate to single a horse in the first leg so they look for huge favorites that can close out a P3 or P4.

It's common sense that the majority of trifecta bets are just mindless wheeling the favorite in the top two spots? Sorry, I don't agree. I think bettors are a bit more savvy than that.

As far as the pick 3 and 4 stuff, it seems the opposite to me. I have no proof and it's just an opinion. But it seems like multi race plays pay more when you are able to beat a heavy favorite in the first leg. The thought behind it is people will single a heavy favorite in the first leg, so they can spread in the later legs. I understand the logic of wanting to be alive as long as possible, but am not sure if it is true. Would be interested in reading that study if you have a link or something though.

[WinterTriangle]

The same person I "follow around and bully" was pm'ing me just 3 weeks ago asking for handicapping help.

You made a play that I thought was excellent. I asked you to explain how you arrived at it. :) It was a super good play.

I believe you are a good handicapper.

That does not mean that I believe your behavior here couldn't use some improvement. You're very hard on people. Maybe you know that already.

That I would PM you to congratulate you on a play shows that I bear you no bad feelings, and by answering me we actually had a pleasant exchange.

It was a stark departure from your "public" personna. (I have no idea what that's all about. Here, lie down on the couch.......:lol: )


If you want to thump your chest fine. But gamblers don't thump their chest when they lose. Like I said, you guys make a potent team. :lol:

Dahoss, coming here from other boards, I have always thought that players give their picks to help others, (as well as have bragging rights if they hit right.) that's sort of the style a lot of people play with on forums.

That seems to have gone away here. I noticed that on Belmont day, there were about 9-11 topics down in Selections, with everyone giving their picks for the card. I thought to myself, what happened, it's not like the old days, when somebody would start the topic and a lot of guys here played along with each other (or at least everyone put their picks into the same topic.) Guess those days are gone.

If I have ONE horse in my trifecta, and let's say you didn't have it, maybe you will consider putting it in if you think I'm any good. That is the part where I think it's really about *sharing*. What if that *one* horse I like, and which I placed in the wrong spot in my wager, comes in for somebody else, because they used it AND put it in the right spot?

I made a post on another forum with a winner on Sat. I had 2 people write back at the end of the day, thanking me. That sure felt good! I didn't need bragging rights--------I just felt really good about helping them, actually. Because other people have helped ME with their picks.

There's a few people I handicap here with, both publically and in PMs. I wouldn't call any of us a "team" but I would call us people who like to share their impressions, mainly because we think we might "have something" to help the other guy out. Bisket is the kind of handicapping buddy who is very forthcoming, and very collaborative. His ego isn't all wrapped up into being right. He has some interesting ways of looking at things, and I get something out of that.

Maybe I'm missing the point. But that's the way I think it SHOULD BE.

[Space Monkey]

I stopped getting involved in message board personality fights long ago. I saw it destroy 1 board and even now has greatly harmed another former "friendly" board. I won't say anything negative about any poster here, but I will say that I know biskit from other boards and hes what I would call an honest handicapper. He puts it all out there and doesn't mind leaving himself open for criticism. He doesn't degrade anyone else and participates in the true spirit of what boards were designed to be. Unfortunately there are many who think they are "God's Gift To Handicapping". These types will take their shots at guys like biskit. I know my daughter and I look forward to meeting biskit someday. We could care less about the GGTH types.

OH, you too WT :ThmbUp:

[Dahoss9698]

Maybe I'm missing the point. But that's the way I think it SHOULD BE.

Maybe you are. Or maybe I am. Understand I look at this stuff from a gamblers perspective. When I post a play here, I am putting the bet in, in real life. I understand everyone here doesn't bet and that's fine. We are all entitled to participate in the game as we choose.

But if I liked a horse for over a month, and he wins and pays $28 and I don't cash a ticket in the race, I did something wrong. I would not be happy with saying I called a race right and wouldn't be thumping my chest about it. I don't know any real horseplayer that would. And that is probably where this whole is getting confusing.

I do appreciate your constructive criticism and lecture. I happen to believe your posting could you some improvement also. The know it all routine for someone who clearly doesn't stinks of arrogance. Not to mention the holier than thou routine and morality lectures. This board reminds me of the track. The track isn't a church. There is foul language and opinionated people. You wouldn't go around lecturing people at the track, so I'm not sure why you do it here.

Just so you know, I post on other boards too and share handicapping opinions with people here and other places. The give and take is great and I am constantly learing from people. I'd like to think maybe someone is getting helped out by my opinions also.

[joanied]

I consider da bisket one of my forum friends...he's one of the members here I would love to meet one day...some of us here do seem to get drug over the coals more than others, myself included...there are a few here that poke fun at some of my posts, and have seemingly gone out of their way to nit pick things I write...sometimes my feelings get hurt, sometimes I get pissed...
but ya know, what comes around, goes around, and it's my thinking that folks that poke fun, degrade and otherwise give other members a hard time, will, eventually find that friends are hard to find.
I cannot understand people that hurt other people, even on an internet board...it's just not the right thing to do.

I am not lecturing here, just saying...to each his own, but I beleive that putting the feelings of others first is always the best way to do things...
everyone has their own way of doing things...in this thread, bisket has been crucified because he loved Drosselmeyer all along, then messed up his wagers...so freakin' what!?! it was his wagers, he has been kicking himself in the ass for it, so why should anyone here feel it is their place to say all this crap about it...he made light of it and it should have stayed that way...he's honest, and he's fun...and I have no doubt he's a teriffic guy.
We have some expert handicappers here...they can read the form, crunch the numbers, make huge scores, yet have no clue how to be, well....nice!

In this case...bisket didn't place the bet he should have...for whatever reason...it ain't no skin off your backs.

[Dahoss9698]

Get over yourself already Joanied. I didn't crucify bisket at all.

But as always, your lectures are appreciated. If your feelings get hurt by stuff strangers on a message board say, maybe you aren't emotionally stable enough to be posting. WT plays a message board shrink. Maybe you need to lie down on her couch.

[JPinMaryland]

I really dont think she needs a lecture on where to post. You sound condescending. :ThmbDown:

[Dahoss9698]

I really dont think she needs a lecture on where to post. You sound condescending. :ThmbDown:

But I need a lecture on how to post? I need a lecture on "being nice?" Isn't that condescending?

[PaceAdvantage]

I noticed that on Belmont day, there were about 9-11 topics down in Selections, with everyone giving their picks for the card. I thought to myself, what happened, it's not like the old days, when somebody would start the topic and a lot of guys here played along with each other (or at least everyone put their picks into the same topic.) Guess those days are gone.They're gone? Really?

I see it all the time...in fact, it just happened @ Belmont on Wednesday in TWO threads:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71483

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71466

Unless that isn't what you mean when you say "somebody starts a topic and a lot of guys here played along with each other."

[Robert Fischer]

Quote:
Originally Posted by
images/statusicon/user_offline.gif images/buttons/green/report.gif (report.php?p=911235) images/buttons/green/quote.gif (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=911235)where in the world is Bobby Fischer?
I actually agree with Dahoss :jump:[QUE R.E.M. song]"It's the end of tha world as we know it"[/R.E.M]:rolleyes:

while the Red-Faced, red-board is good for 1 FREE smile from even the stingiest grinches, and does deserves honerable mention (this is tongue in cheek- nice pick Bisket:ThmbUpimages/UBGX/E1.gif
- possibly the most interesting story here is whether what appeared to be poor traction on the turf surface for Drosselmeyer, and whether it's an individual issue with traction(shoe??)/hoof confirmation or genetics? or.......whether there has actually been problems dating back significant enough for Mottto have attempted a lower stress/impact early campaign.



I'm not really sure what you are saying here. But, the only point I was trying to make is horseplayers stand behind their opinions by betting them. You don't win any money for internet opinions. I realize everyone doesn't bet and that is fine.

But I assume bisket is a horseplayer. If I liked a horse for a race a month or two in advance, then the horse wins and I don't bet him....then it means nothing. And if I actually bet the race and bet another horse to win, I don't see how you take credit for anything.
images/statusicon/user_offline.gif images/buttons/green/report.gif (report.php?p=911235) images/buttons/green/quote.gif (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=911235)I'm not really sure what you are saying here. But, the only point I was trying to make is horseplayers stand behind their opinions by betting them. You don't win any money for internet opinions. I realize everyone doesn't bet and that is fine.

But I assume bisket is a horseplayer. If I liked a horse for a race a month or two in advance, then the horse wins and I don't bet him....then it means nothing. And if I actually bet the race and bet another horse to win, I don't see how you take credit for anything.


Alll that I say hiere in the dilapitated stuper of either a sort of madness or or a finer master, is that deco,mating the helpless targets asisde, there are more pertiinent associations to the Drosselmeeeyer situation. This was one of my top 3 2yos(with foresight into the triple crown season) then he raced on grass and couldn't show the traction in spite of gamely striding on. Then he was moved to bar shoes. Whatever Bisket said is secondary although he deserves credit for noticing the hores. I'm more interested in understanding the path of the horse than belittling some guy on pace advantage.

[Dahoss9698]

Translation?

[joanied]

Get over yourself already Joanied. I didn't crucify bisket at all.

But as always, your lectures are appreciated. If your feelings get hurt by stuff strangers on a message board say, maybe you aren't emotionally stable enough to be posting. WT plays a message board shrink. Maybe you need to lie down on her couch.

Get over myself ? You have a very condenscending attitude, and can be quite mean spirited.
Did I mention your name in my post...nope...so I guess you know who you are, Dahoss.
Bisket has been crucified here...it was said, in effect, that a real handicapper backs up his touts...so because Bisket somehow missed his tri, he's been pretty much forced into an explanation...and IMO, the entire triad over this has been nothing less than assinine!

Beleive me, I am more than "emotionally stable" to post here...regardless of the fact that sometimes words do hurt...even from strangers on a message board, and if you cannot relate to that, then you are the one with a problem...I am the kind of person that considers the feelings of other folks...you, evidently, are not.

I gave my opinion, expressed myself, and sure don't need you to jump on my case for doing so...but, hey, go ahead if it makes you feel good...fact is, I kinda expected it.

[Dahoss9698]

It's not even worth responding how I'd like to. It's like arguing with a child. Good call on First Dude getting carried wide though. :lol:

[joanied]

It's not even worth responding how I'd like to. It's like arguing with a child. Good call on First Dude getting carried wide though. :lol:

Who's arguing...not me. Talk about being childish...you'd think I was the only one that thought First Dude might get carried wide...even the TV guys talked about the possibilty...and I never said he WOULD get carried wide...I said if he didn't break well, he might get drifted out on the first turn...your memory is slipping, or you are grasping at straws.

Open your eyes...by saying it's like arguing with a child...you proove my point.

[Dahoss9698]

Who's arguing...not me. Talk about being childish...you'd think I was the only one that thought First Dude might get carried wide...even the TV guys talked about the possibilty...and I never said he WOULD get carried wide...I said if he didn't break well, he might get drifted out on the first turn...your memory is slipping, or you are grasping at straws.

Open your eyes...by saying it's like arguing with a child...you proove my point.

Again, I'm really trying here. You aren't making it easy.

[joanied]

Again, I'm really trying here. You aren't making it easy.

Trying what ?
Making what easy?

[Dahoss9698]

Trying what ?
Making what easy?

I'm trying not to argue with you. It's like arguing with my 3 year old niece. Only she makes more sense most of the time.

[joanied]

I'm trying not to argue with you. It's like arguing with my 3 year old niece. Only she makes more sense most of the time.

Are you kidding me...what a crock...you enjoy arguments...it gets you off...and once again, the snide remarks referring to me as a 3 year old...typical :faint:

[Dahoss9698]

Are you kidding me...what a crock...you enjoy arguments...it gets you off...and once again, the snide remarks referring to me as a 3 year old...typical :faint:

You are right. I shouldn't have compared you to my niece. She's a much better speller.

[bisket]

i am truly humbled so many think so highly of me, and i've enjoyed exchanging opinions with all of you also. hopefully next time i won't screw up the wager.

[joanied]

You are right. I shouldn't have compared you to my niece. She's a much better speller.

Ah, there it is...petty bull$hit...again.

[joanied]

i am truly humbled so many think so highly of me, and i've enjoyed exchanging opinions with all of you also. hopefully next time i won't screw up the wager.

bisket...I do think highly of you...and you are not the only one to ever screw up a wager...although, you'd never know it from the crap that was thrown around over it. Lest we forget, some of the the handicappers here are perfect, ya know!!

:)

[Dahoss9698]

Ah, there it is...petty bull$hit...again.

So much for not arguing. Weren't you putting me on ignore weeks ago anyway? Guess you can't help yourself. It must get you off to trade barbs with me. I just threw up in my mouth a little thinking about that.