The weekend majors...

[joanied]

We're all caught up with the Apple Blossom, but there are some good races this weekend... the biggies should be very good...

I'm interested in seeing how Munnings does in the Sprint Championship at GP, and like You and I Forever and Biker Boy in there too.
At Tampa...it's a battle between Rule and Uptowncharliebrown...I think Rule takes it.

But the cream of the crop is at SA and I can't wait:jump: ...

Santa Maria:
Life is Sweet (hope her missed traing won't hurt her, and I really want her to win this)
St. Trinians (haven't seen this one yet, so I look forward to it...is she as good as 'they' say?)
Zardana (one of my favorites)
Mushka (should be right there, IMO)

Las Vergenes:
Crisp (I have a bit of a personal connection to this one, but don't think she can beat Blind Luck, unless that one regresses a bit)
Blind Luck (She's awesome)
La Nez (best of the rest)

Robert Lewis:
Tiz Chrome (I love the Tiznow's, and if this one gets the two turns, he'll be one of my top derby horses)
American Lion
Tango, Tango (just because I had a horse names Tango:) )

Strub;
Misremembered
Smart Bid (I think he may take this)
Eagle Poise

La Canada;
I can't wait for this one too...I see Stardom Bound runs Lasix free...large classy field in here...
Stardom Bound (she needed her last, and I want her to be a force this year)
Dream Empress
Unrivaled Belle

On Monday, at OP, the Southwest will be very interesting...Lukas keeps saying not to forget about Dublin...
we won't, if he wins this.

Hope everyone has a bang up weekend:jump:

[toussaud]

St. Trinians is legit joined..

she will beat LIS in her first back since the BCD

[GaryG]

I'm not sure Mike Mitchell knows what to do with a good horse. Sure wouldn't be my choice.

[joanied]

yes, it's Mitchell that kind of turns me off this mare...and Life is Sweet might be a tad short...but, I'll stick with my picks...it's gonna be a great race to see.

[WinterTriangle]

Hard not to be impressed with Dublin when you first see him. He's the kind of big strapping guy who inspires oohs and ahhs.

I'll be at the Southwest Stakes on Monday, so I hope he delivers.

[Bobby Seller]

Hope everyone has a bang up weekend:jump:

Will do and thanks for the weekend headliners

[WinterTriangle]

Nice picks joanied.
I have a nagging suspicion about TizChrome, will not be playing him.

Sam Davis is the race I'm having the hardest time with handicapping.

[Dahoss9698]

Nice picks joanied.
I have a nagging suspicion about TizChrome, will not be playing him.

Sam Davis is the race I'm having the hardest time with handicapping.

What is your suspicion about Tiz Chrome?

[WinterTriangle]

What is your suspicion about Tiz Chrome?

I should rephrase that, Dahoss. He might win this race tomorrow, but it doesn't matter to me. I stick with my "TC superstitions". Only 2 horses in history of KY Derby has won with RAN on broodmare side: Barbaro and MTB.

I've had pretty good luck in the past years *except for last year like most people:D ), handicapping the Derby, and I stick with my rules.
There was also something in a blog somewhere that he was barely getting past his workout partner? Maybe you can find it, maybe DRF blog or something. I never bookmarked it.

OTOH, some could say one would have missed out on MTB by following that rule.......and I did. :D But I don't think that was the problem with my handicapping last year.

BTW dave in dixie has the RAN curse, too.

Now that doesn't mean I ignore them in preakness or belmont. But I won't play the RAN curse for the KY Derby. :)

[Tampa Russ]

Sam Davis is the race I'm having the hardest time with handicapping.

A compact field, but an interesting race. Since I'm almost exclusively a "win only" bettor, I'll probably just watch and enjoy this one. I give the nod to Rule, but with developing 3yo's, we know anything can happen. Middle of the Nite might be the overlooked horse, and Uptowncharlybrown...how cool would that be as a name for a debry horse.

Anyway, hope it's a fun race that adds to the excitement of the triple crown trail. Good luck to everyone today, and always!

[toussaud]

Nice picks joanied.
I have a nagging suspicion about TizChrome, will not be playing him.

Sam Davis is the race I'm having the hardest time with handicapping.

take uptowncharlie

although i dont' like him that much he's won at tampa.. probably the trickiest dirt track in America

[Moyers Pond]

Hard not to be impressed with Dublin when you first see him. He's the kind of big strapping guy who inspires oohs and ahhs.

I'll be at the Southwest Stakes on Monday, so I hope he delivers.

The Southwest should be a great race. Too bad Oaklawn takes forever to get their entries out. Basically 48 hours away and we still don't know who is running on monday.

[WinterTriangle]

Middle of the Nite might be the overlooked horse

I'm not wagering the race, but I'll take him for an upset LOL

[FenceBored]

And on the filly side, don't forget the Martha Washington today at Oaklawn.
The group includes Decelerator, winner of the Grade 3 Debutante last summer at Churchill Downs; Shotgun Gulch, a two-time stakes winner who is 4 for 5; and Tiz Miz Sue, the runner-up to future champion She Be Wild in last year's Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie. There's also a Florida shipper in Funny Feeling, a serious speed horse in Cosmo Girl, and an undefeated filly in Eve Giselle.
-- http://www.drf.com/news/article/110731.html

[joanied]

Hard not to be impressed with Dublin when you first see him. He's the kind of big strapping guy who inspires oohs and ahhs.

I'll be at the Southwest Stakes on Monday, so I hope he delivers.

me too...wouldn't mind seeing ol' Lukas on the Derby road again...root for him for me:jump: he runs well, he's on my Derby list (again):)

[toussaud]

i got conveyance in the southwest...but lukas is making alot of sense about dublin.. it didn't sound like trainer speak. in his DRF article.. i'm scared.

[WinterTriangle]

i got conveyance in the southwest...but lukas is making alot of sense about dublin.. it didn't sound like trainer speak. in his DRF article.. i'm scared.
conveyance and dryfly are the highweights I think. If they don't carry it, then that is not a good sign. There are a few others in this race ---don't have PPs yet, that I've seen at OP who impressed me. Gotta wait til I get the PPs tomorrow. If you've ever seen Dublin in person he is quite impressive looking. I like him, dunno if we will see his best on Monday, but I expect he will make it count in later stages if he doesn't run a real clunker on monday. If I get a chance I'll post the others, but I'm going to the race so I might not have time to get back here.

[cj's dad]

FWIW-

Sprint Challenge:
5-Munnings
6-Motovado
3-Solar Flare

SF Davis:
1-Rule
4- Middle of the Noght
6- Uptown C B

RB Lewis:
1-dave in dixie
4-Caracortado
2- Tiz Chrome

Santa Maria:
4- Mushka
8- Life is Sweet
5-Zardana

Strub:
8-Rendezvous
1- Misremembered
4- Gallant Son

[Bruddah]

Triangle, you are very wise to ignore those runners with RAN on the Dam's side. Not many folks are aware of the stats you quoted. RAN on the Dam's side has produced exceptionally fast and precocious runners with very weak ankles. (can we say Barbaro)

Yes, there have been two recent exceptions, but they were the exceptions and not the rule. I have studied the RAN lineage as a hobby since the 1990's and believe this sire line has produced the best Champions.

Good info Triangle. I am impressed with the knowledge you have gained. :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

I'm just trying to learn.

IF anyone has a copy of Modern Conduit Mares they'd like to part with, please PM me. Lathrop retired and now I can't get the book it's out of print. I sure do miss the website.

[Tee]

Sam F Davis Stakes
#2 Schoolyard Dreams

Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship
I give #4 Biker Boy a itm shot.

[toussaud]

what is this RAN everyone speaks of? sounds interesting

[WinterTriangle]

what is this RAN everyone speaks of? sounds interesting

Raise a Native. Son of Northern Dancer and a most influential sire of stallions.....he sired Mr. Prospector.

[Tee]

I'm a bit interested in what kind of run Dave In Dixie will put forth here in a minute.

[toussaud]

what is this RAN everyone speaks of? sounds interesting
oh I know who raise a native is but what is the stat? he can't be on the dam side?

[cj's dad]

I'm a bit interested in what kind of run Dave In Dixie will put forth here in a minute.Dead last at top of stretch- ran a closing 2nd to Caracortado.

[Relwob Owner]

FWIW-

Sprint Challenge:
5-Munnings
6-Motovado
3-Solar Flare

SF Davis:
1-Rule
4- Middle of the Noght
6- Uptown C B

RB Lewis:
1-dave in dixie
4-Caracortado
2- Tiz Chrome

Santa Maria:
4- Mushka
8- Life is Sweet
5-Zardana

Strub:
8-Rendezvous
1- Misremembered
4- Gallant Son



Well done with the Lewis exacta....Dave in Dixie could be one to watch

[Bruddah]

Raise a Native. Son of Northern Dancer and a most influential sire of stallions.....he sired Mr. Prospector.



Actually, Raise A Native was sired by the great Native Dancer who also was the great grand sire of Northern Dancer. Natalma was Northern Dancers Dam and the daughter of Native Dancer. It's thru Native Dancers son Raise A Native that we get the Mr Prospector line.

In my humble opinion, Native Dancer was the Best and most influential sire of the last half century. He won 21 out of 22 races and ran second only in the Ky Derby while winning the Preakness and Belmont.

Native Dancer's nick name was the Grey Ghost. When I see a grey or roan 3yo with the RAN line, he is an automatic WATCH when it comes to TC races.

[WinterTriangle]

I have a nagging suspicion about TizChrome, will not be playing him.

All hype, didn't even hit the board in a 5 horse field. Not looking good for a 20 horse field. (I wish I remembered where that post was from the clocker who said he thought he had a hard time getting past his workout partner.)

But hey, horses improve fast at this age, however, big guns will be coming out the woodwork. Like I said, a lot of the early-hyped horses will fall by the wayside.

There are some solid improving types on the trail.

Good for Caracortado (how can a horse who hasn't lost a race, was 4 for 4 coming in, who beat La Nez, Evening Jewel and actual routers) and who has already won at 1 1/16 miles go off at the 2nd to last highest odds in a race in a field of 5???? PR, that's how.) :D

[WinterTriangle]

Well done with the Lewis exacta....Dave in Dixie could be one to watch

yeah, the rest of 'em too. :ThmbUp:

Dave in Dixie has some nice power at the end there. But he has the RAN curse. Just slap me, I can't help but indulge my superstition...... I'd still consider him for the ITM but not for the derby "win".


Bruddah, thanks for the correction. native dancer, not northern dancer as I mistakenly wrote.

[Dahoss9698]

All hype, didn't even hit the board in a 5 horse field. Not looking good for a 20 horse field. (I wish I remembered where that post was from the clocker who said he thought he had a hard time getting past his workout partner.)

But hey, horses improve fast at this age, however, big guns will be coming out the woodwork. Like I said, a lot of the early-hyped horses will fall by the wayside.

There are some solid improving types on the trail.

Good for Caracortado (how can a horse who hasn't lost a race, was 4 for 4 coming in, who beat La Nez, Evening Jewel and actual routers) and who has already won at 1 1/16 miles go off at the 2nd to last highest odds in a race in a field of 5???? PR, that's how.) :D

All hype? The race just ended. Maybe he wants no part of two turns, maybe something was wrong, whatever. Let's see how he came out of the race before we conclude he stinks.

Ironically, as good as Baffert was going, he's gone in the opposite direction. He had a horse die (not his fault) and another off the trail, and Concord Point and Tiz Chrome both looked dull in the last few days. A lot can change in a few weeks, especially with this mediocre crop.

[Tee]

In the Santa Maria, let's see if Zardana can overcome the SA Pro Ride surface.

Acclamation is my live somewhat of a longshot in the Strub.

[WinterTriangle]

i got conveyance in the southwest...but lukas is making alot of sense about dublin.. it didn't sound like trainer speak. in his DRF article.. i'm scared.

Just got my prelim PPs. Dublin got a far outside post #10. Looking over the field, its pretty good, I have to handicap it. i like Pleasant Storm to be ITM and he also got far outside post, but he will be on my tickets.

Looking it over briefly, not sure I would play conveyance for the win, JMHO, but he's among the speed herehere's the field:

Kitty's Turn
Conveyance
Cardiff Giant
Mission Impazzible
Domonation
Dryfly
Crider
Cool Bullet
Pleasant Storm
Dublin

[WinterTriangle]

All hype? The race just ended.

BEFORE the race, Dahoss.

He went off at EVEN odds, after running and winning a sprint race.

No, there was no hype. :rolleyes:

[Dahoss9698]

BEFORE the race, Dahoss.

He went off at EVEN odds, after running and winning a sprint race.

No, there was no hype. :rolleyes:

I understand the hype was before the race. You missed the point. The race that got him the hype was a pretty nice race.

All I'm saying is before we start crossing horses off our Derby Lists :rolleyes: let's see what happened. He's much better than what he showed today.

[toussaud]

I understand the hype was before the race. You missed the point. The race that got him the hype was a pretty nice race.

All I'm saying is before we start crossing horses off our Derby Lists :rolleyes: let's see what happened. He's much better than what he showed today.
not really, he really isn't.

[Dahoss9698]

not really, he really isn't.

:lol:

Now I know something must've been wrong with him. You're never right.

[Tom]

Well, the Strub sure sucked. I remember when that used a b real stakes race.:rolleyes:

SA just has nothing anymore. Sad.

[WinterTriangle]

All I'm saying is before we start crossing horses off our Derby Lists :rolleyes: let's see what happened. He's much better than what he showed today.

Dahoss, with all due respect, what's with the "we" and "our"?

I am giving my opinion here. I am crossing horses I don't like off my derby list.

Hope that's okay with you, and also okay that I share my opinion. ;)

Why don't you just say "before I start crossing horses off my derby list I'm going to wait and see what happened, because I think he's better than what he showed today."

Because, I can deal with that, respect your individual decision and thoughts. But your tone here is one where you seem to be telling me what to do with MY OWN derby list. :lol:

addition edit: I'm sure he IS much better than today. At 6F. ;) Until he runs a route around 2 turns, he's simply NOT on my list.

[Dahoss9698]

Dahoss, with all due respect, what's with the "we" and "our"?

I am giving my opinion here. I am crossing horses I don't like off my derby list.

Hope that's okay with you, and also okay that I share my opinion. ;)

Why don't you just say "before I start crossing horses off my derby list I'm going to wait and see what happened, because I think he's better than what he showed today."

Because, I can deal with that, respect your individual decision and thoughts. But your tone here is one where you seem to be telling me what to do with MY OWN derby list. :lol:

The Derby list thing is a joke. I don't have one, nor plan on having one ever. I could care less who is on yours. In my experiences the people who make such lists don't bet much, so the list themselves become their "bets". I don't play that game. Not saying this is your case, but it's something I've noticed.

I just think it's worth noting the horse is better than he showed today in MY opinion. These aren't machines and they have an off day. Is Tiz Chrome the Derby winner? Probably not. But he's better than he showed today.

Hope it's okay I share my opinion about the horse.

[bisket]

good call on the strub winter :ThmbUp:

[bisket]

tiz chrome is just another in the long line of distance challenged baffert wonder horses :rolleyes: sorta like misremembered. one in the money derby finisher is in training at sa: lookin at lucky

[WinterTriangle]

good call on the strub winter :ThmbUp:

thanks bisket! A $24.80 winner in a stakes race at SA is hard to come by, countin' my blessings here. :lol: :lol: almost a miracle

[joanied]

thanks bisket! A $24.80 winner in a stakes race at SA is hard to come by, countin' my blessings here. :lol: :lol: almost a miracle

Ditto da bisket :ThmbUp: you go, girl:jump:

[Relwob Owner]

Not sure if anyone gave you props, JoanieD....nice thread....got me more interested than normally in all of the races, instead of just a few.....

[WinterTriangle]

Yeah Joanied:jump: I think you should keep one going every weekend there are big stakes races, up to KY Derby time.

Make it a tradition, I really liked it too and you always give good picks (which I have used)


Hey Dahoss, you must be a young 'un. I have to keep a derby list......and every other kind of list, at my age, it all disappears from my brain very quickly .:D

[bisket]

i think its a good idea.

[Relwob Owner]

Yeah Joanied:jump: I think you should keep one going every weekend there are big stakes races, up to KY Derby time.

Make it a tradition, I really liked it too and you always give good picks (which I have used)


Hey Dahoss, you must be a young 'un. I have to keep a derby list......and every other kind of list, at my age, it all disappears from my brain very quickly .:D



Isnt having a Derby list part of the fun? I remember last year, it was my first time on here and I liked seeing the Derby list change from week to week.....made it fun.....Joanied, a weekly thread would be sweet.....