Trifecta or Superfecta

[azmike]

I have found the neighboring thread of Pic 3 vs Trifecta interesting.

Caused me to wonder how you all felt about the merits of betting either of these bets.

Which do you like and why?

Has anyone tracked the stats on average payoffs etc?

[Shacopate]

Because it can be a life-altering score.

[Fastracehorse]

They often pay too well and are economically efficient if you are good at picking at overlays.

fffastt

[Suff]

I'm using a 30 day calander instead of # of race days I play to figure out where my action is going and what is returning the most PROFIT and the Most Action. IMHO, its better to be in ACTION less. If your churning 10 grand a Month in the WP place pools and breaking even. Thats alot of bets with no ROI. PIK'3's can keep me in action through a race card. But they were not profitable.

If I think of what bets I spend the most time on. It would be my WP, followed closely by PIK3's, Then doubles, Then exacta's, Then PIK4's, Then Trifecta's and I played ONE super this month.

I play PIK3's at 3X rate I play Trifecta's. I average 4 pik3's a day and I average 1 trifecta a day. I average 1 PIk4 a day.
25% of my bets are PIK3's.

My main bet is WP. They say the tale is in the tape. I pulled my numbers for June 1 through June 27th. This is how the various straight and exoctics treated me this month.

Column Headers.


# of bets/ Win%/ $1 roi/ wagered/Payoff/

Trifecta

41 2.44% +6.49 $442.00 $3309.00 $+2867.00

Double's

71 7.04% +0.38 $976.00 $1346.60 $+370.60

PIK3's

117 5.13% -0.42 $1684.00 $969.05 $-714

Exacta's

72 8.33% +0.95 $723.00 $1410.85 $+687.85


PIK4

27 0.00% -1.00 $482.00 $0.00 $-482.00

Superfecta

1 0.00% -1.00 $24.00 $0.00 $-24.00

win ONLY

15 20.00% -0.22 $259.00 $202.50 $-56.5

WIN & PLACE

74 35.14% +0.56 $2110.00 $3299.90 $+1189.90

Totals for the Monnth all wagers.

423 11.35% +0.57 $6735.00 $10543.15 $+3808.1


TVG lured me in for a few days this month and I have some action over there as well...but at a -$200 for the month.

I'll have to give this a Long look this week and see where I am wasting my time. Appears to me, I'm wasting alot of time and money on PIK3's.

Because I went and pulled my PIK3 Numbers for the last 90 days and they are'nt much better than this Months

316 3.48% -0.58 $3224.00 $1348.80 $-1875.20



Glad I did this. PIK3's are Killing me. Did'nt realize how badly.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by Shacopate
Because it can be a life-altering score.

Great comment!

If you want a big score, this is how you get it. If not, then something else is better.

It also depends a lot on how deep your pockets are, your ability to complete the big score and your ability to wait until you do.

I have no patience, I'm a win type of guy for the most part.

[azmike]

Obviously in looking at and comparing ROI's with Tri's vs Super's we have to look at the amount of money invested. It costs more to bet Supers since there are more combo's.

What has been your experience with different betting methods/formats?

Some like the 3 w/5 w/5 w/5, others like to key 1 with 4 or 5 and some throw in the "all" horse.

Curious what your data and experience tells you.

[so.cal.fan]

I know nothing about either, but I do have a friend who hits his fair share of supers......he says it is actually easier to hit the super than the tri...........I'll have to get the details on this and post back to you all.
Of course, we are talking a "deep pockets' guy here.

[azmike]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
I know nothing about either, but I do have a friend who hits his fair share of supers......he says it is actually easier to hit the super than the tri...........I'll have to get the details on this and post back to you all.
Of course, we are talking a "deep pockets' guy here.

Sounds interesting. Look forward to your post.

I also heard about a friend of a friend that only bets supers and does real well. But again he may lose several days in a row before he hits big. Likewise, he has the proverbial deep pockets too. I don't know and couldn't find out his betting methods so what you learn will be interesting to say the least.

[Derek2U]

If you a Win type of guy try the P4. It's now my Main Bet.
It involves both Picking to Win + Ticketing Strategy.

[freeneasy]

the strenght and weakness of the field and there odds. this will usually determine the size bet i make. first i lay the entire bet out on paper no matter how much it adds up to cost wise i just lay it all out on paper. win contenders, place and show contenders. all i want to do in this process is straight up hit the bet on paper,
thats it. i lay the bet out again with the odds only. if it looks like decent money i might play.
the times i definently try to make a play is when i have a strong win/place single and what follows that single.
if you got a good single then basicly the tri comes down to an exacta and the super comes down to a tri.
the super is where the money is at and if you have a horse that shoudnt be worse then 2nd for a tri and two horses, one that shouldnt be worse then 2nd, 1st is better, and the other that shouldnt be worse then 3rd for the super then you have a good chance and that if you dont start in on that saving money bs or the cost is to rich crap. if thats the case then skimping is basically just throwing the cost of making a half bet straight down the shitter. nothing wrong with throwing some money out there on a little flyer bet but when know you have, not feel you have, but know you have some very strong candidates to make you some money with then lay it all out there in front of you, count the cost, and make the bet that needs to be made. i say its better to make a $150 bet and be confident that everything concerning your bet is covered then to half play the bet.
friday nite at hollywood the last race was a $63 dollar winner. the horse went right by me, didnt see him, but the next day this horse jumped right out at me and to make a lss, had i of seen the mistake i made in missing him i would have probably made him the strongest bet on the card. but i know for a fact that whatever bet i would have made with him that i would not have jepordized any potential profits by holding back on including any horses that could have beat me.
the superfecta is the higher payout bet and when you have a winner and a sure thing 2nd 3rd or 4th place horse, then dont hold back with what can get you beat. if you do your better off playing the tri or the ex.

[azibuck]

if you dont start in on that saving money bs or the cost is to rich crap.

if thats the case then skimping is basically just throwing the cost of making a half bet straight down the shitter.

make the bet that needs to be made

This is a key point.

It took me a long time to figure this out. As a mostly recreational player, I used to swing for the fences with these toothpicks. Finally, I wrote it down with some other notes in the binder I use when I go to the track. I wrote, "Don't be halfhearted. If you're playing the Pick 4, INVEST in it. 2x1x2x2 will NOT win the Pick 4."

I still like to go lean and mean with the exacta, as Gordon Pine says. No sense boxing and wheeling my way to poverty. But if I'm going Pick 3 or 4, or with a trifecta, I'm bringing heavy lumber.

It can really simplify things too. I went to FL a few weeks ago and hit the only trifecta I played. Played it A/BC/All. "All" is a pretty good horse. Almost got 2nd on me.

az