Newbie with a great capping program

[BiigBlue]

Hello all,

I am a newbie here. I was told by some people on the DRF forum that this place might be of interest to me. I have developed a program that reads the exported files from the DRF Formulator and ranks the horses according to the information in the form.

I am new (about 6 or 7 months) to horseracing and I program in VB for fun. I made this program and want to get help with making it stronger than it is. Had 8 of 13 winners at calder yesterday and am killing at church and belmont today.

Oh well, if anyone is interested, I look forward to being a long term member here.


thanks, and good luck all.

[JimG]

Originally posted by BiigBlue
I made this program and want to get help with making it stronger than it is. Had 8 of 13 winners at calder yesterday and am killing at church and belmont today.



Sounds strong enough to me.

[zenstat]

Hi Blue,

Glad to see another newbie here.

Please take a look at my recent post about setting up a db.

I could use some help.

thanks

z

[BiigBlue]

Sure, that's good. But most of the horses were chalky at best. The sleeper horse is what I want it to find. The average placement of the winner at belmont and churchill is around 4.5. This is good, but the winners sometimes come from the last placed horses in the system. I want to try and reduce this number. At calder and hollywood, that number is almost and even 3. So it takes an extra pick and a half to get the winner at bel and CD. I want to get this number down below 4.

bla bla bla. anyway.

[andicap]

1. Are you making money?

2. If so, (and it continues to work) don't get greedy.

You can't win every race.

[BiigBlue]

Making enough money to buy myself a new Gibson and a Fender to boot. I don't really bet that much since I am new to the sport. I have an addictive personality so I must constrain myself when it comes to betting. I am mainly the smarts man, and my buddies are the money men. I just get a portion of their winnings most of the time cause I don't like to loose my own money. I started off in the begining of May with $50. We made 4 weekends of sat and sun betting where we killed and raked a bunch of cash. Then the loosing streak came. It was 3 weekends of sat and sun. But, my buddies and I managed to come out ahead with smart money managment skills. Took 2 weekends off and were going back at it this weekend.

Oh yea, I posted my picks at the DRF post your picks forum and killed at belmont. Lost by 1 horse at Churchill too. :D

The program works better at smaller tracks. Any ideas why

[zenstat]

Blue,
Are you backtesting your 'angles' against old races?

Once I get my db up and running, my plan is to purchase at least a year's worth of drf back issues (if possible) and results for my local circuit (SA, HOL, DMR) and see how the 'angles' stack up over the course of the year.
Further, if possible, I want at least 3-5 years worth of data to see if my angles stand the test of time.

re: smaller track advantage

I wonder if it's because larger tracks draw a higher quality of horse that might be difficult for your angles to weed out.
Just a thought.

Also wondering, are you and your buddies actually going to the track to make the bets or doing it all remotely. Just wondering if seeing the horse and what condition it's in is affecting your final play.

Great your getting at least a guitar out of it. I play guitar too, but could never afford a real LesPaul or Strat. If you can afford a new LP, that's good $.
z

[Tom]

I hit a big double back in 1968 and used the money to buy a Gibson "Beatle" bass. Still have it. The bass cost more than all the money the band ever made.

[BiigBlue]

funny. My buddie is moving and all his good basses are up north. One day we were on our way to the track during our winning streak and went to the music store and bought a $200 Ernie Ball base before we went the track. Now that's guts. Or stupidity, take your pick.

A '68 base. That's got to be worth some cash. I don't know much about bases, but a guitar from back then in good shape is worth a bundle.

[John]

BigBlue,
post your selections on our selection page. I for one play Belmont all the time.


Thanks

[BiigBlue]

I will when I get a chance. Thanks for the invite.

[midnight]

When will this program be offered for sale?

[BiigBlue]

It's not for sale. You can have it if you want it now.

[BETKING]

Sounds interesting. Send me a copy and I will try it out and give you some feed back.

BETKING
whitede32@hotmail.com

[BiigBlue]

I may have spoken prematurely. I am in the process of calibrating the program model and have not yet given consideration to the different tracks that people play.
At this point I will not be giving the program away. I will however be glad, no more than glad to run the program on a drf formulator file that anyone would send. It takes about 5 mins to run the model and put the results into excel. I use excel for the output because the creation of a final output that can be sent to the printer is the last step in my programming. Want to make sure all the bells and wistles are in order before taking on that tremendous task.

Once again. I would be happy to run the program for anyone who sends me a Final version of a DRF Formulator file.

Sorry for the inconvience.
Oh yea, look at the selections page for today. I posted some picks. Hit 6 out of 10 winners at Churchill and no horse came from higher than the 4th position in the programs rankings. Not too shaby eh.

[zenstat]

What would have been your ROI if you bet 1 unit per race?

[BiigBlue]

I am not too familiar with how to compute ROI. But here are a few stats from the day

6 out of 10 winners
all winners came from position 4 or better in the rankings
The average payout for the winners was $8.73
There were 2 horses that paid over $15
the total collected with the 6 wins was $52.40

For a 1 (I'm assuming you mean $1) unit investment in each race. the return was $26.20. and 10/26.20 = .38

so I am guessing the ROI on the dollar was 38%

If this is wrong. let me know.

[Dave Schwartz]

I don't mean to be a pain here, but are you saying that you selected 4 horses per race and had six wins out of 10 races?

Unless I am mistaken that would not be considered a stellar performance.

You wagered 10 x 4 = 40 x $2 =$80 and returned $52.40, meaning that you lost 34.5% per wagered dollar or about twice the takeout.

Again, I am not trying to be a wise guy, but that seems to be what you posted. Could you clarify that?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[BiigBlue]

Nope that's not what Im saying.

I took only the first pick. And I had 6 winners from the first pick.

1
1
2
2
1
1
4
1
4
1


These are the ranking of each of the winners. And as you can see for 2 races did the winner come from the 4th spot in the ranking. And two races did the winner come from the 2nd place in the ranking.

Now I don't know about you but to me. Thats pretty good.:)

[Dave Schwartz]

Now that makes more sense.

Thanks.

[John]

Ya Dave,

Not only did BigBlue have a outstanding day at Churchill Downs. Also had a good day at Belmont. & winners were among his first three rankings. Including some nice pick- 3's

BigBlue,good handicapping...

[zenstat]

Uh, sorry Blue, but you're losing me with this ranking information.

In your example, are you saying that in six of the races that you bet on the Favorite, and in two races you bet on the 2nd fave, and races you bet on the 4th favorite?

z

[BiigBlue]

nope, I don't bet like that. And I wouldn't either. I would pick my selction based on all the facts present. Meaning, I ALWAYS look at the form because there is stuff in there the program can't analyze.

Why whould I bet the first pick on a whole bunch of races and then switch to the 2nd or 3rd or 4th. I am not a W/P/S bettor. I am strictly an exotic bettor. And for that, the system works.

And one or two of those races are 2yr olds and I wont even touch those with someone elses money. lol.

[Richard]

BiigBlue,
What would be the possibility and/or requirements for aquiring a copy of your program?Any reply at all would be most appreciated.

[BiigBlue]

I would need to talk with you in person some how. The program is not really ready for distribution. But we might be able to work around that. I would be happy to run the program and send out the results.

[Rwahi1]

BiigBlue

After reading your posting I am wondering if you know Tom Consloe. I think you know Tom Console!.

Raman

[John]

watch out BigBlue here they come !!!!

[ Rwahi1 ] Why don't you go and see what BigBlue posted in the Selection section for Wednesday. What more proof do you need. This guy is as honest as the day is long. Give him a chance to prefect his method. You want more proof. Bigblue said, Send him any DRF Formulator file and he will send you the selections for that track. all it will cost you is $2.50 for the Drf PP.

[BiigBlue]

yea, someone started firing at me on the DRF too. Thanks for being such a great guy.

[Fastracehorse]

When you got something good you attract something bad.

I'm glad you found this board - and when are we going head to head at Wdb again??

:) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

fffastt

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by BiigBlue
I would need to talk with you in person some how. The program is not really ready for distribution. But we might be able to work around that. I would be happy to run the program and send out the results.

=============================

:D Why, oh why, do you want to distribute a program that is winning for you? Keep it to yourself and when you become a millionaire and are totally bored with horse racing then and only then should you consider distributing it. IMHO. By the bye... good luck :D

-L.C.

[BiigBlue]

thanks fast,
I would be honored to go to wdb with you today. I will not be around like last time. But at least you'll get that shot at showing how good you really are and what I know you can do.

[BiigBlue]

Lousycapper,
I think that's a good idea. However, I am not that type of person.

[canuck]

I will buy you guys a couple of frosties at Greenwood otb--I dont go to Woodbine--too damn far!!!

[BiigBlue]

Too damn far is right. I live in Florida. :D
I'll take a tall Sam Adams in a frozen frosty mug.

[canuck]

My bad--thought you and fffast were from these parts.

Sam Adams is my fav Yank brew when I'm down there....

[BiigBlue]

Quite alright and you have a nice day.

[BiiG]

HIIII!!!!!!!!!!

BiiGBlue is back!!!!!!!!!

BiiGreen, my next version of my software, has been developed.

I will be seeking constructive critisim in the next day or two.

Just bringing this thread up to remind everyone about me.


GOOD LUCK ALL and have a GREAT DAY!!!!

[raybo]

RE:<Oh yea, look at the selections page for today. I posted some picks. Hit 6 out of 10 winners at Churchill and no horse came from higher than the 4th position in the programs rankings. Not too shaby eh.>

Are you saying that you had 6 winners with your top pick and none of the winners for all 10 races were lower than 4th pick? If so, and it's not just a fluke, you better copyright it or patent it or something! If, on the other hand you meant that of the 6 winners you had, none of those 6 were lower than 4th pick, you better keep your nose to the grindstone. 6 winners with your top pick only, is very, very good. Hope it continues.

How much do the Formulator files cost?

[raybo]

Disregard the last post, I went back and read the rest of the thread. Sounds like you really have something there Biig. I have hit 42% winners with my top pick at Houston and Oaklawn in the current meets. I also don't bet "blind" I verify all output from my program. I also bet strictly superfectas if one is available, otherwise I revert to trifectas and wager the same total dollar amount as my standard superfecta ticket,($24 to $48), depending on tied grades for all 3 or 4 rows. My program is all Excel, 13 MB without the race data inserted, just the formulas and macros. I use Bris' "Multicaps" comma delimited files because they contain Class Ratings and Race Ratings along with the pace figures and speed figures one would expect. Are you tied into a database yet for analysis purposes? I have that set up for my program so I can run "what if" scenarios to check new strategies.

[BiiG]

Raybo,
I am off to work now. Can't talk much. Look for my post later tonight. I will elaborate then.

thanks and good luck out there!!!!

[Richard]

Big Blue,
Could you sendme a copy of your program?
Richard

[BiiG]

Not really. Not because of the usual reasons. I just don't think it's worth others using.

I've tried but most are not as sharp as I. Don't mean to be snooty, just 90% of the people who ask say that's ok after I talk to them.

Need VB and Access.

I am huge fan of racing and I built it to help with my capping and cappin style. and most either don't do VB and Access or they have a hard time committing the time to learn how to use it effectivley. And some just try to make money with it right off the bat and have a bad day and that's the end of it.

Then there is the whole thing about... ITS MY BABY!!!

I have tried to put my true giddy fruitloop personality out here because that's who I am and......... so.... really... the answer is I'm not sure. I am getting even punchier and fruitloopier as time goes on because of the time and effort that I put into it. I may be asking for some to help out with that. Then ofcourse they would get a copy.

Bla bla bla ... yackety schamekeeety... gotta go watch da 8th at GP!!!

[freeneasy]

what was it in the 8th at gp that you was to recommend worth watching?

[BiiG]

free,
Had to go cash on a $9 winner. :-) that's why.

[freeneasy]

thought you were making a recomendation on a horse to watch in the 8th at gp and forgot to mention his name. i did that sunday. put a horse on the selection board and forgot to mention his name, but i caught it.

[midnight]

Calder and Hollywood run shorter fields, so the ranking placement would naturally be lower.

A better way to do it might be the percent placement in the field, a simple formula of (rank/field * 100), rounded. Lower numbers equate to better results. 100 would be a last place finish in any size field, and 1st in a 14 horse field would yield a 7. This would equate a horse finishing 3rd in a 6 horse field to a horse finishing 6th in a 12 horse field (both would get a score of 50). It isn't perfect, but it's an improvement over a raw placement ranking regardless of field size.


Originally posted by BiigBlue
Sure, that's good. But most of the horses were chalky at best. The sleeper horse is what I want it to find. The average placement of the winner at belmont and churchill is around 4.5. This is good, but the winners sometimes come from the last placed horses in the system. I want to try and reduce this number. At calder and hollywood, that number is almost and even 3. So it takes an extra pick and a half to get the winner at bel and CD. I want to get this number down below 4.

bla bla bla. anyway.

[Fastracehorse]

I haven't had time to use your scoring template - Scott is doing scoring anyways.

Your program is evolving nicely - GL.

fffastt

[BiiG]

FFFast... I checked out that led zep dvd after the win in the FL Derby. My buddy and I went out and bought it. Been meaning to say thanks!! I think it would give any musican a better appreciation for them.

Thanks on the program. It has been a lot of work. Now I'm at the point where I can tune it into the classic rock station to pick biiger payouts or turn on the soft rock station to find the most winners. :-) It sure has done good for me this year as far as bottom line goes... and... I guess... that's the bottom line.. LOL

Take care of yourself and have a groovy!!!

[Fastracehorse]

The neat thing about LZ is that they experimented with many genres of music.

For ex., the solo lick in 'California from Earls Court - was derived from a Celtic influence.

'That's The Way' from folk, and the list goes on.

fffastt

BTW,

Kee seems chalky today. Wdb next weekend :)