Pick 4s for Saturday 2/6

[Ray2000]

Balmoral Pic4 15% take... 40 tkts

R7 #5 (6 horse field) Coldheartedrevenge
R8 all
R9 #2,#1 (a twofor, #1 is coupled) Fox Valley Absolut & Fox Valley Glitz & Smiling Angel
R10 #1,#9 Peekasoogly & Just Call My Name


BigM Pic4 15% take... 16 tkts

R6 #4,#5 Andy Roo & Extender N
R7 #4,#1 Pangiorno & Handsome Harry
R8 #9,#5 Smellthecolornine & Hennessy Hanover
R9 #6,#1 Blue Claw & A And G's Winner


GoodLuck

[markgoldie]

Trying my hand at the BMLP pick 4:

R7 #2,3,5 (Even though #5 Coldhearted Revenge may well have the edge, giving some respect to the possibility that two shippers may find the oval to their liking.)

R8 #1,2,4,5,6,8,10 Acknowledging that this is an open race, but feeling that there are a few legitimate throwouts.

R9 #1,2,4,7

R10 #2,9,10

$1 Investment $252 which sounds like a lot but I have a strict rule that I must give myself the proper comfort level to make a legitimate attempt to cash the ticket. Otherwise, I simply pass the gimmick.

BONUS:

Race 12 offers up what I feel is a legitimate special. The situation arises due to a mixture of classes which can often prove profitable for those on top of the differences. The class is written for F&M NW $2500 L5 and this is an interesting class in and of itself because it can offer wildly varying strengths of competition. It can be very tough when the track is offering many classes of better mares. During those times, the high degree of competition means that many better mares will not be earning much due to their facing tougher stock. Hence, drop downs to this class may be actually very good. How good? Well, Trackmaster class levels in this division can range into the low-mid 80's, which is not bad at all since I believe that the BMLP numbers hold up well across the nation. Such numbers (even low 80's) can be rightfully associated with $20,000 claiming mares. At the moment, however, BMLP is not filling the races for the better mares and so the level of competition has fallen drastically. Consequently, the current TM class levels for the FM NW $2500 are in the upper 70's. The 12th tonight has a rating of 77.

Into this class moves #1 Boltin Bride from the F&M NW6/$8000 claimer. This group of mares has maintained their normal upper 70's level of competition strength. In fact, the last two races for Boltin Bride found her facing 79 class-rated mares. So whereas, this move would normally be a step up in competition, tonight it's actually a step down. Such anomalies may add to the value. Boltin Bride is very likely in career form at the moment. She was saddled with the 7 hole in her last two and closed well both times. In fact, she possesses a closing move unknown by the current competition. She has Sutton driving and he is familiar with her, having driven her two starts back. Boltin Bride hails from the sharp Erin Elliott barn.

The ML odds are listed at 5-1. We won't get that, but this mare has a strong edge over this competition and in a 7 horse field, I think the fair-value odds may be in the area of 4-5. That or above makes her a highly-recommended play.

[markgoldie]

Mistake on pick 4 numbers at BMLP: First leg should have read 2,4,5 but with scratch of #2 will now be 4,5 Sorry.

[Ray2000]

Balmoral

I believe we both used the right approach to this pic4 and would have caught a fair return if it wasn't for a very strange 5 horse field race in the 7th with the co-fave getting parked the entire mile. I didn't get to see the race, but figured it would be a sprint from the top of the stretch. What the hell was Sutton trying to prove?

Pick 4 (6-1-1-9 $1,414.70)

[markgoldie]

Sutton may have had a bit of an unmanagable horse on his hands. But you're right, it wound up a as a cut-throat duel which cost both of them the race.

I was much more disappointed in the loss of Boltin Bride who had no excuses in not reeling in Devachan. I know Widger is a better driver than Leonard, but this mare was all out to narrowly beat the F&M NW 3 in her last with favorable fractions. Boltin Bride has been facing much, much superior mares and has been closing with authority from unfavorable posts and positioning relative to fractions. I thought the price on her at nearly 2-1 was almost a belated Christmas gift. But that's racing for you.

[Stick]

Mark,

Although I agree with you that Boltin Bride looked best off the PP, you have to be aware that the #4 Devachan is a private buy for Pacitti who is a drastic improvement over the previous trainer. Given the fact that this horse had only 13 starts in her life, the up side could be huge. 9/5 odds were because of the trainer change. Widger is just Pacitti's main driver.

Maybe some cappers can explain how they handle this type of situation. A positive trainer and driver change off of a private buy or claim with a horse that is in form but has been competing against much easier.

[DeanT]

Stick,

The classic line from Beyer that trainer changes have changed the art of capping fits right there huh?

Ed Bain in tbreds deal with it by looking at what percentage something happens, then betting it at that strike rate i.e. if Kesmodel off the claim is 33%, he will bet the horse at anything over 2-1.

I have thought about it quite a bit and I have no model to use for them - maybe someone else does. The horse you mention was due for a monster improvement for sure - but a 5 length one, a ten length one, a 12 length one? Who the hell knows (imo).

Here is an old time off the claim that I bet. Yep, I actually bet this horse. Did I use capping? Of course not. With the old trainer this colt was 20-1 fair more than likely, with the new one he was probably 2-5 fair. How can ypu handicap that? Impossible, imo.

NW6000L6CD

M
$14,000 26.1 54.4 1:24 1:532 6/6H 7/7H 8/6H 8/7H8/8 1:54.3 18.20 Arthur, D - Trainer


$14,000 27 55.3 1:22.2 1:51
6 1/1T 2/1Q 1/2H 1/4H 1/8Q 1:51
3.45 Robinson, B - Trainer