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View Full Version : Curious about other handicapper's reaction to a short price horse


menifee
02-06-2010, 02:23 AM
Please let me know your thoughts and why you think your instinct has developed like that.

letswastemoney
02-06-2010, 02:57 AM
Every 1-2 shot is different. You can't just treat all 1-2 shots the same way. You take it on a case by case basis.

So I'd look at the 1-2 and I'd be curious about why the horse is 1-2. But I can't have a reaction until I see the PPs

Johnny V
02-06-2010, 04:27 AM
I would say "ugh" BUT still take a look at the race. Depending on the size of the field, if I feel there is a very live long shot, I may do something with an exacta. I would not spend a lot of time looking at the race. Generally speaking, I tend to avoid these types of races.

Stillriledup
02-06-2010, 04:29 AM
I dont have a problem with 1-2 shots because a winner is a winner. If i think that 1-2 shot has an 80 pct chance to win, he becomes positive value.

Overlay
02-06-2010, 07:16 AM
My reaction would depend on three factors:

1) My determination of the actual winning probability of the 1-2 horse (i.e., whether, even at those short odds, it might be overlaid);

2) The degree to which the betting on the 1-2 horse was raising the odds on other horses in the race, and turning them into potential favorable wagering propositions, depending on the individual actual winning probabilities of the rest of the horses in the field;

3) The presence of value in exotic wagers (including those involving the 1-2 shot, despite its short odds as a win bet).

Tom
02-06-2010, 01:30 PM
If his name is 85ina50.......:lol::lol:

markgoldie
02-06-2010, 02:25 PM
Any rational handicapper knows full well that you can't make a profit betting a steady diet of 1-2 shots. Furthermore, the chances that your 1-2 shot is overlaid, as suggested by an earlier responder is basic folly. 85% is a near-maximum win rate for any priced horses and that, of course, would include 1-9 to 2-5 shots, let alone the higher-priced (in this group) 1-2 offerings.

It has also been well-documented, here and elsewhere, that in gimmicks, heavy favorites are even worse underlaid than in the straight pools. The reason is simple: All favorites tend to be underlaid in high-combination plays because many players are playing relatively few combinations as a percentage of total possible combinations. In addition, the 1-2 price creates a new group of normal win players who are shopping for a better return by looking to exactas, trifectas, supers, etc.

As a gimmick player who looks to eliminate favorites when possible, I can honestly say that 1-2 shots are not a fertile area for elimination as a general rule. That's because they are most often lacking in certain form defects that may occur more routinely in somewhat higher-priced favorites.

All this is a round about way of saying that I am not particularly enthused to encounter a race where a horse is bet to 1-2. So my answer would be in general that I will probably pass the race.

skate
02-06-2010, 02:27 PM
Every 1-2 shot is different. You can't just treat all 1-2 shots the same way. You take it on a case by case basis.

So I'd look at the 1-2 and I'd be curious about why the horse is 1-2. But I can't have a reaction until I see the PPs

as i see it, xactly.

Overlay
02-06-2010, 02:48 PM
Furthermore, the chances that your 1-2 shot is overlaid, as suggested by an earlier responder is basic folly. 85% is a near-maximum win rate for any priced horses and that, of course, would include 1-9 to 2-5 shots, let alone the higher-priced (in this group) 1-2 offerings.

It has also been well-documented, here and elsewhere, that in gimmicks, heavy favorites are even worse underlaid than in the straight pools. The reason is simple: All favorites tend to be underlaid in high-combination plays because many players are playing relatively few combinations as a percentage of total possible combinations. In addition, the 1-2 price creates a new group of normal win players who are shopping for a better return by looking to exactas, trifectas, supers, etc.

As a gimmick player who looks to eliminate favorites when possible, I can honestly say that 1-2 shots are not a fertile area for elimination as a general rule. That's because they are most often lacking in certain form defects that may occur more routinely in somewhat higher-priced favorites.

All this is a round about way of saying that I am not particularly enthused to encounter a race where a horse is bet to 1-2. So my answer would be in general that I will probably pass the race.

The point of my post was that the guiding principle of response to the presence of a 1-2 horse should be value, wherever it might occur. I agree with you as to the improbability of that as regards either win bets on the 1-2 horse, or exotic combinations with that same horse, for the reasons you stated. However, there's a difference between improbability and impossibility. I was just suggesting those wagers as areas to be looked at and assessed based on the possible presence of value in specific instances and races, rather than tossing the horse or the race without a second thought, or, conversely, betting the "steady diet" of 1-2 shots that you mentioned. As to the third (more likely) alternative that I stated, if I determined that the 1-2 shot was being overbet for reasons that I could identify and refute, I would not hesitate to focus from a win-bet perspective on horses in the field that were overlays as a result of that imbalance.

bisket
02-06-2010, 03:37 PM
i'm an exotics player (exacta and trifecta) you have to be careful how you play the race though. a 1-2 finishing third in the tri doesn't pay anymore than the exacta in this case so why bother with the tri. same goes if you play supers. a 1-2 finshing 4th in the super pays the same as the tri so why bother with the super

misscashalot
02-06-2010, 05:29 PM
Any rational handicapper knows full well that you can't make a profit betting a steady diet of 1-2 shots.
How many 1/2 you see in a week?

It has also been well-documented, here and elsewhere, that in gimmicks, heavy favorites are even worse underlaid than in the straight pools. The reason is simple: All favorites tend to be underlaid in high-combination plays because many players are playing relatively few combinations as a percentage of total possible combinations. In addition, the 1-2 price creates a new group of normal win players who are shopping for a better return by looking to exactas, trifectas, supers, etc.
Instead of underdaid/overlaid how does the 1/2 do in a particular circumstance that you are watching.? Ya bet Exactas? Doubles or whatever your cup-0f-T is. Maybe no Maybe yes. It should not be ignored, but rather studied before being summarily discarded.

dav4463
02-06-2010, 09:06 PM
If I see a 1-2 shot in a race; I pass.

The problem is it will be just like a Steve Asmussen horse at Lone Star.

If I think I can beat it..........I can't. If I use it in exotics.........it loses.

proximity
02-07-2010, 02:48 AM
The problem is it will be just like a Steve Asmussen horse at Lone Star.

If I think I can beat it..........I can't. If I use it in exotics.........it loses.

don't mean to hijack the thread, but this guy just gets all the breaks.

like tonight in the 7th at hou. the crowd bets a speedless assmussen horse down to 5/2 and i try to counter with a karl broberg runner coming off a ridiculous speed duel two back at rp and who appeared capable of getting and nursing an easy lead in this spot. (was i wrong to do this getting 12-1 going into the gate????)

well my horse did get the lead, but jockey larry taylor showed absolutely no interest in attempting to rate the horse as he sped the half in an off the (horsestreet pars) charts 46 4/5...... setting it up for assmussen (of course) who charged home from 21 lengths behind. :rolleyes:

letswastemoney
02-07-2010, 03:38 AM
I realize this is redboarding but....the Pick 4 with Wildcat Frankie, Court Vision, Quality Road, and some horse who I can't remember in the last race was really easy....

paid $53.90 I believe for $1 and I hit it for $4, so it returned around $211

I considered Wildcat Frankie a lock...and obviously Quality Road who was even lower than 2-5 was a lock in my book.

I was torn between Court Vision and Never On Sunday but ended up using both of them

Then I used a bunch of random horses in the last race, and I can't remember the name of the filly because their PPs all looked kind of the same lol

But using Quality Road as the example, I think that's how you play a 1-2 shot once you get over your initial reaction and end up liking the horse on paper.

Not every horse is Quality Road though...I realize

Stillriledup
02-07-2010, 05:01 AM
I realize this is redboarding but....the Pick 4 with Wildcat Frankie, Court Vision, Quality Road, and some horse who I can't remember in the last race was really easy....

paid $53.90 I believe for $1 and I hit it for $4, so it returned around $211

I considered Wildcat Frankie a lock...and obviously Quality Road who was even lower than 2-5 was a lock in my book.

I was torn between Court Vision and Never On Sunday but ended up using both of them

Then I used a bunch of random horses in the last race, and I can't remember the name of the filly because their PPs all looked kind of the same lol

But using Quality Road as the example, I think that's how you play a 1-2 shot once you get over your initial reaction and end up liking the horse on paper.

Not every horse is Quality Road though...I realize

I've been very successful on Pick 4s and Pick 6s in my betting career and the one rule i have is don't single a horse who is 'everyone elses' single.

If a horse who is obviously the 'most likely winner' pays 2.80 in the win pool, he's probably a 2.20 horse in horizontal exotics.

raybo
02-07-2010, 12:16 PM
First of all, I never look at odds until I've handicapped the race and prepped my super ticket.

Then I start watching the tote. If the 1-2 horse is legitimate, I'll probably pass the race, because if it's a legitimate 1-2 it will be on the top of my ticket, along with everyone else's. No payout = no interest, for me.

If the 1-2 isn't legitimate and not on the top of my ticket, I look at the odds spread on the remaining horses on my ticket, if I can get at least $300 for a $1 super, on the 4 lowest odds combination on my ticket, I'll place the wager, if not I'll pass.

CBedo
02-07-2010, 02:19 PM
That's an easy one....it depends. Could be any of the above depending on the race.

point given
02-07-2010, 08:34 PM
depends on the race, your poll choices are slanted. As a horizontal player these races are killers of potential plays unless i can beat it. OTOH, I have hit some nice tri's using longshots underneath. ;)

menifee
02-07-2010, 11:22 PM
depends on the race, your poll choices are slanted. As a horizontal player these races are killers of potential plays unless i can beat it. OTOH, I have hit some nice tri's using longshots underneath. ;)

I know it depends on the race and pp's. I'm just curious about the initial gut instinct. Some people don't look at the odds before they look at the race so this question is not for them. I look at the odds first before the pp's. I think that is a habit I picked up from my father (not sure if this a good habit). He would write the current odds in the pp's of each horse.

My gut instinct use to be to get discouraged and even though I would look at the race, I would tend to not bet on it. Now, I focus on these races because if I can beat that favorite, it can make my day.

Horseplayersbet.com
02-08-2010, 01:10 PM
I usually think that this represents a good race to play because the race probably contains a few overlays. Of course, I still want to make sure the overlays have a reasonable chance....in other words, that they are not just slight overlays.

46zilzal
02-08-2010, 01:22 PM
I often make a killing, particularly in maiden races, by hooking this ODDS ON horse with many of the unknowns and let THEM ride on the short priced horse coat- tails to a BIG exotics...Happens all the time.

the FOUR here much the best in this race, ran THIRD as the anchor for the randomness to finish ahead and at a nice price for the tri.
3rd race - Aqueduct - February 03, 2010

Off at: 1:26 Race Type: Maiden Claiming
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Sex Restriction: Fillies
Value of Race: $19,000
Distance: Six Furlongs On The Inner track
Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:14.79
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 Quitters Never Win Charles C. Lopez 10.00 5.50 3.50
3 Roaring Aly Antonio Lopez 26.60 7.80
4 Musicsetsmefree Victor Santiago 2.60
Also ran: 1 - Illgiveyouwattever , 6 - Sweethearts Kiss , 2 - Centrina , 7 - My Choclate Shake

Trifecta $922.00