NeW yAwk sIt taY

[Suff]

Got the bug to break a few down. Going ahead with out with overnights.


Good card. Couple of Marathons in here. Time to break out the Bloodstock info... 12 Maidens going a Mile and a 1/4 on the green in the 5th. Some shippers and lightly raced types going a mile and 3/8's on the green in the 3rd. These two will probably get most of my attention.

I think the key to this card will be having the winner of one or both of these two races. If I can sniff out two nice price horses in the.5th ..should be able to get going with PIK's 3 early and swing into a big day off the 3rd and 5th.

First race sucks. Going to play the 2nd time starter , the 5, Key decision. Daddy only stands for 5 grand. But he did win at two. and he won a bunch going long at NY. Including the Grade 1 Suburban going a Mile and 1/4. at 7 YO's. Note all works are 4 and 5 fur. and they're fine numbers for a Maiden router. Would have liked to see a local Freshening work off the 6 furlong debut. I still think even with no work listed. They had this horse out for a gallop and a look thats not published.


Here's daddy's Numbers.



At 2, WONa maiden special weight race at Aqueduct (1 mi.,
by 4 1/2 lengths).

At 3, WON an allowance race at Saratoga (1 1/8 mi., by 10
1/2 lengths), an allowance race at Belmont Park (1 1/16
mi., by 5 3/4 lengths).

At 4, WON an allowance race at Saratoga (ntr, 1 mi. in 1:34
3/5, by 5 1/2 lengths), an allowance race at Belmont
Park (1 1/16 mi.), an allowance race at Belmont Park (1
1/16 mi., by 10 1/2 lengths), 2nd Stuyvesant H.-G3
at Aqueduct (1 1/8 mi.).

At 5, WON a handicap race at Aqueduct (1 1/8 mi., top
weight of 122 lbs.), an allowance race at Belmont Park
(1 1/16 mi.), an allowance race at Keeneland (6 1/2 fur.),
2nd Stuyvesant H.-G3 at Aqueduct (1 1/8 mi.).

At 6, WONa handicap race at Belmont Park (1 mi.), a handicap
race at Saratoga (1 1/8 mi.), an allowance race at
Belmont Park (ntr, 1 1/16 mi. in 1:39 4/5), an allowance
race at Saratoga (1 1/8 mi.), 2nd Fayette S.-G2 at
Keeneland (1 1/8 mi.).

At 7, WON Suburban H.-G1 at Belmont Park (1 1/4 mi.),
an allowance race at Aqueduct (1 mi.), 2nd Brooklyn
H.-G2 at Belmont Park (1 1/8 mi.), Aqueduct H.-G3
at Aqueduct (1 1/16 mi.).


IN THE STUD
KEY CONTENDER entered stud in 1996.
STATISTICAL SUMMARY
4 crops Lifetime Lifetime 2yo
Foals of racing age 149 149
Starters (/Fls) 69(46%) 26(17%)
Winners (/Str) 45(65%) 3(12%)
Total Starts 882 (66)
Total Wins (/Starts) 119(13%) 3(5%)
Total Earnings $2,430,669
Avg. Earnings (/Str) $35,227 $5,588
Avg. Earnings (/Start) $2,756 $2,201
Stakes Wnrs (/Str) 0(0%) 0(0%)
Stakes Horses (/Str) 2(3%) 1(4%)
Avg. Earnings Index 1.18 0.53
Comparable Index 1.28
2002 Statistics
Starters 43
Winners (/Str) 26(60%)
Total Starts 292
Total Wins (/Starts) 40(14%)
Total Earnings $783,524
Avg. Earnings (/Str) $18,221

[Suff]

race 2.

You could make a strong case that Arjays Flag, can't get it done going this short. But you could make a case that with unrateable 22 and 44 speed in the 1 and 2 hole that this pace will be TORID. So now I go back to her 7 furlong effort 3-23 and I see she was 7 lenghths off 23. 46 and 112. Very slow race. that 3-23 effort was the 4th race. The 5th was also 7 furlongs. They went 6 furlongs in 109. Don Six won at 5-1. The third race of the 3-23 card was a 6 furlong that Finished in 109.3. So you can see that ARJAY caught a very slow pace for the way the track was playing that day. If BOTH INSIDE speeds stick...I give ARJAY a good chance at a nice number.

Class Drop alone makes him a contender.

[Suff]

Looking further.. I mistakenly lumped the Inside horse the two as a speed factor in here. Mainly because it is very difficult to win sprints off the pace from down inside without supersonic speed..

Post Positions For Sprint Races On The Main Course


Post .......... ..1 ... ..2 .....3 ......4.... 5
STARTS...... 161 ..161.. 161 .. 160.. 157
WINS .. ......19 ..15 .. ...33 .. 18 .... 28
PLACE ...... 21 .. 30 .. .. 21.. 20 .. 19
SHOW ........30 .. 33 .... 21 .. 22 .... 22


Clearly see the 2 hole and 1 hole win at much less than the 3 hole. 3 hole wins 110% more than the 2 hole. 33 wins to 15.

The longer I look at that 2. Looks like I'd need him to get suckered by the 1...and with no REAL signs of early speed...I'd need him to get caught up in a pace duel.....and he never has. Only time he had early lead was when they forced him to take it at a 24 going a mile 5 back. .. the two looks awfully tough in the lane. But the stats speak for themselves.