Day 5 Black box-Oaklawn Picks

[Handiman]

This track has always been a nemesis of mine. So I will let ole Handifast take it on and see what happens.

R1. 1-7-6-8
R2. 4-7-1-3
R3. 9-5-1-8
R4. 7-4-3-6
R5. 1a-3-2-4
R6. 3-7-10-2
R7. 12-2-6-9
R8. 12-4-2-6
R9. 5-9-6-8
R10. 12-10-3-9

Handifast sure likes the 12 here at Oaklawn.


Good Luck Everyone.

Handi :)

[Dave Schwartz]

I will be out of town until Sunday evening.

Sorry.

[raybo]

AllData PPs Black Box

I'm going to list my top 6 due to the number of scratches, in the contests so far, that have affected my top 4. Still ranked from left to right. (horses with no pacelines are not graded by AllData PPs)

R1----1 5 7 4 8 9
R2----1 7 3 6 4 2
R3----7 8 5 9 11 6
R4----4 6 11 8 3 9
R5----2 3 8 1A 5 6
R6----3 1 10 7 2 9
R7----12 8 9 11 3 1
R8----4 3 6 12 8 5
R9----9 1 2 7 3 8
R10---10 9 3 12 11 4

[douglasw32]

1=1
2=3
3=5
4=7
5=2
6=pass
7=12
8=4
9=9
10=pass

[Jingle]

Homegrown---Top 4

1. 1-7-4-8

2. 5-7-1-4

3. 5-9-1-10

4. 4-6-7-11

5. 1A-8-2-3

6. 3-8-7-2

7. 12-8-4-6

8. 4-6-8-3

9. 9-5-6-7

10. 10-5-12-6

[goforgin]

TIPS (with my custom settings).

R1. 1-2-7-4
R2. 4-7-1-5
R3. 5-8-1-10
R4. 6-7-8-11
R5. 3-7-1A-6
R6. 3-2-7-8
R7. 12-8-7-2
R8. 12-8-6-4
R9. 6-3-4-9
R10. 3-10-12-8

[dartman51]

HHRA software for OP

1> 7,1,4,10
2> 4,3,7,6
3> 5,8,1,10
4> 12,7,4,9
5> 1A,3,4,2
6> 8,3,7,2
7> 12,6,2,9
8> 4,6,12,9
9> 6,9,8,7
10> 12,10,3,9

[REBel]

1. 7-1-8-4
2. 4-6-7-5
3. 5-10-1-8
4. 4-11-7-9
5. 1a-3-8-2
6. 3-7-10-9
7. 12-10-9-4
8. 4-2-6-12
9. 6-8-3-5
10. 12-10-3-8

[Jeff P]

JCapper Oaklawn Park 02-05-2010

Going to use a slightly different value based approach today. First, just so that others can see it, here is a link to my own HTML Report:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/Reports/Report_OPX02052010.html

As I indicated yesterday, my own play is normally centered around making value based play or pass decisions on horses selected by my UDMs. The UDM names appear beneath the names of each horse on the above linked to report.

Yesterday, I pointed out the Consensus for each category... Early, Late, Form, Figs, Class, Power Rating, etc. in the summary section appearing on the report beneath each race... and asked to be scored using the horses listed in the PWR section of the summary.

Today I'm going to do something more in line with the way I actually play. I'm going to post individual selections along with min odds/strike price attached to each of the individual plays... exactly as if I were submitting a conditional win wager.


OPX 02-05-2010

RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R2 #3 4-1
#4 3-1
#7 7-1

RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R3 #5 5-2
#10 8-1


RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R4 #8 10-1
#11 6-1


RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R5 #1A 5-2

-jp

.

[atlasaxis]

Ray Taulbot Pace Comp

R1: 7-8-6-4
R2: 1-5-6-4
R3: 8-1-5-7
R4: 7-10-3-9
R5: 3-1-2-6
R6: 3-7-10-4
R7: 10-3-9-6
R8: 4-6-2-10
R9: 9-6-8-5
R10: 12-10-11-9

[Jeff P]

JCapper

OPX 02-05-2010

Conditional Win Wagers continued...


RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R6 #3 9-2
#9 10-1
RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R7 #3 9-1
RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R8 #4 7-1
#12 8-1
RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R9 #5 7-1
#9 5-1
#3 6-1
RACE HORSE MIN ODDS
---- ----- --------
R10 #10 5-1
#12 8-1


-jp

.

[Light]

Handiman

I dont understand how you are getting your plays.I'm trying to follow along but its not jiving at the default setting. For example yesterdays last race at GP,Targe ($14.20).The Handifest #'s had Targe's Speed figs about midpack in a full field yet you had him on top.

[RichieP]

Ray Taulbot Pace Comp


R7: 10-3-9-6


That is a COLD thousand dollar exacta and 7 grand tri in top 4. WOW!

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[atlasaxis]

That is a COLD thousand dollar exacta and 7 grand tri in top 4. WOW!

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

AMEN BROTHER!!! Ty!!

[Handiman]

Light,

Not sure. I just write them down as they are listed when I run the program. I am using handifast M-T 6 default settings.

I will run again and look at the summary.

Handi :)

[Handiman]

Light,

I just looked and 8 was definitely the top rated horse. The speed figures are only a small part of the over all view.


I don't know what to say. So far at Oaklawn today not doing great. Only 2 out of 9 so far with one more to run. Hit a $4 and $16 winners. So at worse will break even for the day. The 12 is top pick in 10th and going off at 17 to 1 or something like that. Don't expect to hit that one.

Let me know what you show as default settings and I will check to see if the match up with mine.

Handi:)

PS. How did you do in the big Vegas Handicapping contest.

[Light]

Handi

I'm using HHX2.0, but the folder says its 2.1. I did check your $16 winner today and I do get the same 4 horses in the same order as you. But when I do that last at GP from yesterday which I just redid,I get Targe 4th ranked with 80 points and a 9th place Speed rating.

How did you do in the big Vegas Handicapping contest..
23rd.

[Handiman]

There's a bit of difference in HHX and handifast M-T 6. Head changed a few things in his version. so while we get mostly the same picks, so do differ.

handi :)

[dartman51]

1=1
2=3
3=5
4=7
5=2
6=pass
7=12
8=4
9=9
10=pass

Congratulations on a VERY good day!! :jump:

[dartman51]

Ray Taulbot Pace Comp

R1: 7-8-6-4
R2: 1-5-6-4
R3: 8-1-5-7
R4: 7-10-3-9
R5: 3-1-2-6
R6: 3-7-10-4
R7: 10-3-9-6
R8: 4-6-2-10
R9: 9-6-8-5
R10: 12-10-11-9

WOW!!! Killer day. I am curious about your settings as I have that same program and it doesn't come up with the same horses.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by douglasw32:
I am really betting these =)
1=1
2=3
3=5
4=7
5=2
6=pass
7=12
8=4
9=9
10=pass
Nice work Doug! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:




Originally Posted by atlasaxis:Ray Taulbot Pace Comp

R1: 7-8-6-4
R2: 1-5-6-4
R3: 8-1-5-7
R4: 7-10-3-9
R5: 3-1-2-6
R6: 3-7-10-4
R7: 10-3-9-6
R8: 4-6-2-10
R9: 9-6-8-5
R10: 12-10-11-9
Very nice call in R7! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:



-jp

.

[atlasaxis]

WOW!!! Killer day. I am curious about your settings as I have that same program and it doesn't come up with the same horses.

I also use Ray's Pace Calc. My little tweak to the program is to uncheck "block all lines below line X/past X days". In Ray Taulbot's "Lessons in Handicapping", he says to use the fastest pace line anywhere in the horses past performance, where the horse was close to the pace and finished no worse than 5 lengths off the winner. Ideally same distance or within a furlong of today distance.

Has made quite a difference in selections!

Thanks Jeff and Dartman. I had posted this in the 2010 Software/Services Usage thread. In addition I use 5.75 (as per the hand held calc instructions) instead of the default 5 lengths. Hope this helps.

[bigmack]

Thanks Jeff and Dartman. I had posted this in the 2010 Software/Services Usage thread. In addition I use 5.75 (as per the hand held calc instructions) instead of the default 5 lengths. Hope this helps.
21-1 on top of a 52-1 cold?

You could run this BB test for years and never see such a thing.

Remarkable.

[Light]

There's a bit of difference in HHX and handifast M-T 6. Head changed a few things in his version. so while we get mostly the same picks, so do differ.

handi :)

I just tried it with MT6 and got Targe rated 3rd behind the 4 and 2. This was using the $1 Bris files. What files are you using?

[atlasaxis]

21-1 on top of a 52-1 cold?

You could run this BB test for years and never see such a thing.

Remarkable.

The biggest exacta it's hit for me was back in '08 @ MNR. I had 1/2 of $2061.60 as I boxed the top 3 when the top 2 cold had it. As the saying goes, even a blind pig finds an acorn every now and then. :)

[Handiman]

use the Multicaps files.

Handi

[Handiman]

I will have today's update a little later. I'm playing a contest with some people and we are playing Delta. Handifast top pick has hit 5 out of the first 7 races. I am leading the contest.

Back soon.

Handi :)

[lsosa54]

use the Multicaps files.

Handi

Shouldn't the Multicaps files produce the same results? The program doesn't use any of the extra data in the Multicaps files that I'm aware of. 1st vs. 3rd rank is a big difference.

[Handiman]

Depends on whether the speed figures are the same I believe. I'm not sure what the difference is......I will look at my default settings I have programmed and make sure they are the same as originally laid out.

Handi

[douglasw32]

Shouldn't the Multicaps files produce the same results? The program doesn't use any of the extra data in the Multicaps files that I'm aware of. 1st vs. 3rd rank is a big difference.

Pretty sure it is the speed figures, or something with the pace figures maybe but the multicaps usually do better but cost more.

[raybo]

Pretty sure it is the speed figures, or something with the pace figures maybe but the multicaps usually do better but cost more.

The only "figures" that .mcp has that .drf doesn't are the CR and RR figures. So, unless your program uses RR or CR then the results should be identical, because, both files' pace and speed figures are identical.

[douglasw32]

$2.00 to win, $6 to place as usual

1=1 w 4.00/2.80
2=3 w 10.8/5.4
3=5 show
4=7 w 16.00/7.20
5=2 w 14.20/7.4
6=pass
7=12 4th
8=4 5.40/3.8
9=9 4th
10=pass


<64.00> 130.6 +66.60
or something like that?

[Handiman]

Great Job Doug. Haven't got to the results yet. But now at Delta Top pick has hit 6 out of 9 winners.

Tomorrow will probably be a disaster.

Handi

[headhawg]

Shouldn't the Multicaps files produce the same results? The program doesn't use any of the extra data in the Multicaps files that I'm aware of. 1st vs. 3rd rank is a big difference.I think that there is some other difference if I remember. I want to say that in some races horses that might have zeroes in AW, TF, or Mud with $1 Bris have values with Multicaps. Handi has said that he eliminated the zero issue with MT-6 so I am speaking of the original/HHX Handifast programs. I could be wrong but I think that early on a user asked me what the difference was and I could swear that what I mentioned above was the case.

[Jeff P]

My results for Fri...

OPX 02-05-2010

RACE HORSE MIN ODDS ODDS BET FIN WIN PLACE SHOW
---- ----- -------- ----- ---- --- ----- ----- -----
R2 #3 4-1 4.40 2.00 WON 10.80 5.40 3.20
R3 #5 5-2 3.00 2.00 3RD 3.60
R4 #8 10-1 10.60 2.00 4th
R4 #11 6-1 6.30 2.00 OUT
R6 #9 10-1 14.00 2.00 OUT
R7 #3 9-1 52.30 2.00 2ND 38.00 16.60
R9 #5 7-1 8.30 2.00 3RD 4.80
R9 #3 6-1 7.00 2.00 OUT
R10 #12 8-1 8.30 2.00 OUT
---- ----- -------- ----- --------- ----- ----- -----
TOTALS 10.80 43.40 28.20
AMT BET -18.00 -18.00 -18.00
--------- ----- ----- -----
GAIN/LOSS -7.20 25.40 10.20

1/9 2/9 4/9
.PCT .1111 .2222 .4444
ROI/$1.00 0.600 2.411 1.567


Handi, despite the place and show prices on the 50-1 in R7 that ran 2nd, score my day as 1 for 9 with a $1.00 roi of 0.60... The selections I posted were done as conditional win wagers - a strategy I'm completely comfortable with in the long run.


-jp

.

[cloud9]

I will have today's update a little later. I'm playing a contest with some people and we are playing Delta. Handifast top pick has hit 5 out of the first 7 races. I am leading the contest.

Back soon.

Handi :)Handi when you play default are you picking the top fast scores to get your selections ?

[Handiman]

In relation to that post, I was using the top fair odds horse. I am trying different things in an effort to figure the best way to use it.

Handi :)