Jayce Killaen

[llegend39]

I was just inquiring to see if any has a copy of Killaen's Formula Handicapping: a Professional Career If you would like to sell or trade give me a shout THANKS!

[Warren Henry]

I was just inquiring to see if any has a copy of Killaen's Formula Handicapping: a Professional Career If you would like to sell or trade give me a shout THANKS!
Just type Jayce Killaen into Google and you will find several currently available. They are a little expensive!!

[thaskalos]

I have a copy that I paid $125 for...are u interested?

[FORGO]

I had his oridginal program at one time. Its only Value today is as a collectors Item it brings a good price.
If you are trying to learn something from it move on to some of the latter day Pro's. Dick Mitchell DVD's are a great learning tools to use Pro and Amature a like.
I owned them both and I just told you where the value is.
Dick Mitchell was one of the Best Balanced Players of our time we owe him DEARLY for his contribution to our sport.
FORGO:ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

Is this the same Dick Mitchell who used to claim that he got 40 - 60% return on his exotic bets, that all the race tracks were his personal ATMs and all he had to do when he needed money was to go in and make a withdraw? Oh yes, I remember him...I bought an overpriced "sharp" calculator from him 20 years ago, that promised to make me an investor instead of a gambler. Sadly, it didn't quite deliver on it's promise. I also attended a seminar once in which he spoke. He stated with pride that if his son did not become a horse player, he would consider himself a failure as a parent. When he was asked why he wasn't rich using his "platinum stratergies," since they were so wildly successful, he told the crowd that his plays were very selective and couldn't provide him with the "Rolls Royce" wages he needed to make. He wished he could move to Las Vegas, he told us, where he could make a great living betting the horses, but business and family responsibilities prevented him from doing so.
As it turned out, of course, he didn't need to move to Vegas...with full card simulcasting, Vegas moved to him. Did he become rich playing the horses? Not quite...he moved back to Washington, to his first love...teaching math. The challange of playing the horses was gone...he supposedly said. Whatever that means.

[Warren Henry]

Who was observed with Ron Ambrose in Kansas City publicly selecting one horse, but betting another. Small pools here then, so if he mentioned a horse in his seminar, all others became overlays. Great way to make money, but ethical? not so much.

[Overlay]

It might not have been unethical if there had been acceptable odds associated with the horse, especially if there had been such fair-odds figures provided for each horse in the race (although I gather from the tone of your post that the horse in question was given out as the selection that Mitchell was recommending or backing, regardless of odds).

[Warren Henry]

It might not have been unethical if there had been acceptable odds associated with the horse, especially if there had been such fair-odds figures provided for each horse in the race (although I gather from the tone of your post that the horse in question was given out as the selection that Mitchell was recommending or backing, regardless of odds).
In those days, Mitchell and I were friendly competitors. We never officially met, but we spoke several times on the phone , discussed differing handicapping perspectives and traded mailing list names. He was considerably higher profile than I was - my name was known by some, but my face was not. I made it a point to follow them out of the clubhouse area that day with the intentions of introducing myself. They were deep in discussion, so we did not intrude immediately, but were behind them on the escalator. By the time there was a lull in their conversation I no longer wanted to let them know who I was. When we got to the car, my wife informed me that if I had said a word, she would have killed me.

A customer of mine (also a customer of Mitchell) attended the actual seminar. He reported what was said there without any knowledge of what I had heard. It is my opinion that what happened was deliberate. I often wondered if that was a one time happening or if that was their normal pattern.

[lsosa54]

Warren: I obviously can't speak to your experience, but I attended an all day "private" seminar at HOL with Dick, Ron, and Barry Meadows. They booked a private room in HOL and there were probably a total of 10 people, including them, so maybe 7 people that bought in. I don't recall the fee being that expensive. This had to be 1989 - 1990 time frame.

My wife at the time was with me and part of the deal was getting a pic taken in the winner's circle - P. Val was the jock.

I can tell you that nothing of the sort you describe was done at that seminar. Ron, Dick, and Barry were seriously handicapping but each was very nice and willing to answer any questions. They all exemplified the approaches we've come to know them for and as far as I could tell, bet the same way.

I also attended a multi evening handicapping course (probably 2-3 hours each night) that Dick gave over at his office on Ventura Blvd in Studio City,CA (Cynthia Publishing) for a very reasonable fee. I remember Kitts Anderson, who is on this board, manning the front desk. Again, Dick was a good guy willing to answer all questions and be helpful and you could tell he enjoyed teaching. Nothing shady, just his philosophy on handicapping and betting.

I've heard Doc Sartin and Michael Pizzola accused of betting every horse in a race just to produce a winner, but I never experienced that while anytime around Doc. No experience with Pizzola but I had a good friend that did, and his experience was always on the up and up.

If you feel that what you and your wife heard left no room for doubt, that would be pretty sad if Dick had resorted to such tactics. Do you remember what year it was?

[banacek]

I bought this when it came out..$50 and I was a teenager...a ton of money to me. Never regretted it. Although I didn't use the strategy as such...it helped me concentrate in early speed and that paid dividends. I think his strategy might have worked back then, but probably not now. Lots of things like that, though.

Last year was my best year in a long while and one of the reasons was I was playing 2 or more horse to win in a race. Killaen did that (this is well before Sartin). In big letters in the book "IF YOU GET THE PRICE, DUTCH. IF YOU DON'T, PASS." Not saying it's the right or wrong way to go, but it works for my personality.

Through the years my copy had so much writing and was so dogeared that it was hard to read. But I found a mint copy of it a couple of months ago for $50 and bought it..more for old times sake.

There was no cover of a handicapping book that an aspiring teenaged horseplayer could have liked more:

http://i833.photobucket.com/albums/zz253/banacekno1/1207479891.jpg

Well maybe one..must have been the pipe:http://i833.photobucket.com/albums/zz253/banacekno1/61lbdlFKa7L__SS500_.jpg

[Warren Henry]

If you feel that what you and your wife heard left no room for doubt, that would be pretty sad if Dick had resorted to such tactics. Do you remember what year it was?

This event was probably in the second or third year that the Woodlands was open. Maybe 91 or 92.

We know what we saw/heard.

However, in all fairness, Mitchell was a value bettor. The Woodlands pools were pretty small. If you held a seminar in those days giving out selections from your methods, they would be pure chalk. The only way to make money was to try to beat those selections.

I often would show up at the track to see two or three of my serious customers were there too. One in particular bet with both hands. On those days, there was no way to bet my programs top selection and make any money. Thus, I attempted to find angles and odds plays in order to try to make a profit. I remember one particular day when I left the track and a patron who knew me and used someone else's software asked me how I did. I replied that it was an "artistic success". (My software had picked the winner on top in all but one of the Tbred races on the card). Then he asked me how I made out and I reported truthfully "lost a couple hundred".

I actually don't blame them for betting against their pick, but I felt that acting like the cat that got the canary was somewhat classless.

Overall, I think Mitchell was one of the better vendors in those days.

[Warren Henry]

[color=black]
http://i833.photobucket.com/albums/zz253/banacekno1/1207479891.jpg

Well maybe one..must have been the pipe:http://i833.photobucket.com/albums/zz253/banacekno1/61lbdlFKa7L__SS500_.jpg


Is that the Voegele method that used impact values?

[banacek]

Is that the Voegele method that used impact values?

No impact values..just stuff like 83% raced in the last 30 days..so throw the rest out..bad stats.

[Tiger Hopkins]

One of the biggest frauds ever perpetrated on the racing public. Jace didn't understand the first thing about statistics and probability, and probably got his figures from The American Racing Manual. I bought this in 1976 and tried it Extensively. Don't waste further time. Like Lawrence Voegle's book, Jace uses the percentage of Winners only, rather than winners and total number of horses. The only good advice in the whole book is to wager at 4-1 plus only and Dutch. You ain't missin' nuttin'!

[dansan]

if anyone had the holy grail do you seriously think they would sell it? Im not selling mine :lol:

[Overlay]

Is that the Voegele method that used impact values?
If I recall, Voegele used only the percentage of winners possessing a given characteristic to weight his factors, without considering that figure in light of the percentage of all horses that also shared that same characteristic. It was better than just betting blindly, but, in my opinion, it wasn't in the same league with impact values from an accuracy or usefulness standpoint.

As far as I know, Fred Davis developed the impact value metric (which many others have also used since then).