Day 1 results-Black Box

[Handiman]

1st day results. I will keep the reults tallied right here. We will continue to post the picks in the Black Box settings thread. Again these are just in the order that they were posted.

Handiman....Black Box Handifast

top 4........7 for 10
Top Pick....4 for 10 40% $20 out.....21.40 back 7% Roi

Raybo......AllData PPs.xls

top 4........4 for 10
Top Pick....3 for 10 30% $20 out....22.00 back 5% Roi

Doug.... Using the combination of both WR-A and WR-P 's top 4, then ranking those using the original FAST FIGURE from V8. to arrive at a consensus based black box. No custom settings.


Top 4........6 for 10
Top Pick.....3 for 10 30% $20 out.....12.80 back -36% Roi

Goforgin TIPS (with my custom settings)

Top 4........7 for 10
Top Pick.....4 for 10 40% $20 out.....26.80 back 34% Roi

Jingle Homegrown--Top 4

Top 4.......7 for 10
Top Pick....5 for 10 50% $20 out....33.40 back 67% Roi

Fight htr

Top 4.........6 for 10
Top Pick.....2 for 10 20% $20 out....9.00 back -55% Roi

Rebel The custom settings in EquiSim for FG, 2-1-10.

Top 4.........8 for 10
Top Pick......3 for 10 30% $20 out.....18.20 back -9% Roi

Atlasaxis Ray Taulbot Pace Comp

Top 4.........8 for 10
Top Pick.....3 for 10 30% $20 out.....57.80 back 189% Roi

Fight my Handifast

Top 4........9 for 10
Top Pick.....3 for 10 30% $20 out....24.40 back 22% Roi

Dave S.*****You need to see Dave's post to see how he plays and what the results were for Fairgrounds. I can't boil it down here because of the complexity of his program as it is a custom mix.

Thanks for everyone who participated. I think we have some very interesting results. But only one day. I will start a new thread for tomorrows Track for pick posting. Everybody interested is welcome to post.

Handi :)

[Dave Schwartz]

I can do that for you.

I average about 4.28 contenders per race. (At least I have over the last 3,000 or so in my sample). Some races will have 5 or 3, occasionally there will be a race with 6 or 2. Today I had 26 contenders in 6 races, 4.33 per race.

What I am doing in this contest is simply posting all of my contenders. There is no order for play but there is certainly a clear-cut instruction.



All Contenders
Races 6
Bets 26
Pays 5 11 14
Pct 19% 42% 54%
Return $70.60 $78.20 $70.50
$Net $2.71 $3.00 $2.71


Thus, all contenders in the 6 races handicapped produced 5 wins and a 1.35 ROI to win. This will not continue. Ultimately, they will lose about 4.5% per wagered dollar.


In addition there were 5 exactas:
$16.80, $80.60, $59.20, $58.60, $177.60



As I stated at the outset, the horses are to be bet at 4/1 or higher.


Bets 17
Pays 1 6 9
Pct 6% 35% 53%
Return $44.80 $60.20 $56.80
$Net $2.63 $3.54 $3.34


The normal hit rate is about 14% and the ROI about 1.11.

They playable horses produced only one exacta, but it was a good one, paying $177.


BTW, the systemology is my own personal black box. I will post a video, if anyone is interested to see how it is done. By "personal" black box I mean that I have hand-selected the factors used in each of 4 handicapping objects. These are all factors that are available to anyone using the software.

The process is simple:
1. Load a race.
2. Click 2 buttons, appropriately numbered "1" and "2."
3. I have created a "wagering system" that marks all the contenders at 4/1 or higher as bets. At the first flash of 0 minutes to post I click this button.
4. I then click the "bang" button and my bets are sent to my bet taker.


Note: In reality, some 7/2 and 3/1 horses sneak in since some horses drop in odds after the gate opens. (Wish that had happened today as the extra horses went 2-4, returning $16.80.) Occasionally, a horse below 4/1 is passed and he wins, although it did not happen today.

Perhaps later this week I will have the time to play live and I'll broadcast the play.

[Handiman]

Thanks very much Dave. I would not have been able to make heads or tails out of your way of playing and so I didn't try.

You made things quite clear. I appreciate that.

Handi :)

[raybo]

My math says AllData PPs black box had a 10% profit, not 5%.

$20 bet, $22 returned. $2 / $20 = .10 (10%)

[Handiman]

You're right Ray. My computer must have been using the new math...where 2+2 = 3 sorry. Will fix it in tonight's numbers.

Handi :blush: