Ray Taulbot on Consistency

[JimL]

Assume a low level claimer is entered in a 6K race today. Further assume this horse has a lifetime record of 27-9-4-2
Reduce the number of starts by one third and chalk them up to conditioning races. This would leave us with a 18-9-4-2, record. Could not this idea work today? I would never be able to dismiss this horse. JimL

[andicap]

Racing so much different today than when taulbot was alive. Horses are more fragile, they don't race as often, they are bred for speed, not soundness.

I'm not saying no, but wondering if the changes in the game would affect this strategy adversely. If your horses are racing so much less than they used to can you really afford to spend 1/3 of your races getting them into shape.

I'm skeptcal -- but open minded.

[JimL]

Andi, that is my main concern. I think at class B and C tracks they still overwork them. Another sound idea that will probably float to the ceiling! JimL

[BETKING]

I have the slide rule that figures the 33% off. It came with Ray Taulbot's booklet "Positive Factor Handicapping". I could never make money with this system and the rusults form the slide rule did not seam to be very predictive. I do think it worked well during Taulbots time. The game has changed so much since then that I doubt the theory will work at all now.

BETKING

[alysheba88]

Following simplistic formulas like that are the quickest road to ruin. There are no shortcuts

[Racehorse]

>>>>>>>>"Following simplistic formulas like that are the quickest road to ruin. There are no shortcuts"
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
oh no ....
wish you'd NOT told me

I've been diligently searching for forty plus years and now I find I'm doomed .....

oh no ...

gggggggg



btw
I do use something similar to what was originally posted at the top of the discussion here

I really do chunk out the first race after a layoff of several months ... say .. roughly two per year .. or three sometimes (unless that race is an actual win or place) in calculating a "rating" for each animal ...

I deduct two per racing year in the career of the horse AND the ones that are visible in the pps ....
so
if the horse is 7yrs old and has run 100 time and has a record of 100-15-10-15 and one visible starts this year from a layoff
I allow a decuct of four years times 2 = eight and, say, one this year for a total of 9
100 minus 9 equals 91 divided by 25 ...
this gives me a numerical rating for this horse .....

I use starts (minus the aforementioned one or two or three that are visible in the pps) and divided that net total by the sum of wins and places .....

it seems to help me ...
and
dang, I've discovered that it won't work ....
oh no .. I'm doomed ....... LOL

horse

ps
I'm still gonna keep on doing it tho .... LOL

[JimL]

Did not mean to imply that all I do is subtract one third of a horses starts and I am ready to play. I do know that some of the starts in a horses pp are no goes. Knowing how many would be a valuable piece of information. JimL

[Jaguar]

In the 60's and 70's Ray's methods worked great, but the chemicals knocked the whole thing galley west.

Glad Ray didn't live to see it. Sad to say, Clenbuterol rules.
Ray's consistency factors and elimination rules would doom a horse bettor today.

I treasure my copy of Positive Factor Handicapping, wish it was an autographed copy.

All the best,

Jaguar

[cj]

Jaguar,

I'm shocked, you were able to find a way to bring drug use into the discussion as usual. I NEVER consider what drugs horses are getting or not getting, but I seem to do OK. I truly don't understand why people who think drugs rule the sport or that the races are fixed by the inside connections even bother playing this game!

[Shacopate]

I have a tremendous amount of respect for this man and I think that many of his ideas will still work today.

And I never owned a pace calculator.

I think that the "Taulbot Box" is at least as good as Quirin Speed Points.

[JimL]

Shacopate!! You know it is coming. What is the Taulbot Box? I simply will not dismiss outright any angle he ever wrote or talked about. Most angles need to be updated for todays racing however the general ideas still work. Simply the best racing writer ever. JimL

[Tom]

Originally posted by Jaguar
In the 60's and 70's Ray's methods worked great, but the chemicals knocked the whole thing galley west.

Glad Ray didn't live to see it. Sad to say, Clenbuterol rules.
Ray's consistency factors and elimination rules would doom a horse bettor today.......

Jaguar
Hey, that would be a cool name for a horse...Clenbuterol Rules!
"And as they turn for home, "Hay and Oats" has led all the way, but as they near the wire, it is Clenbuterol Rules! "

:rolleyes:

[Shacopate]

Now explain the Taulbot Box.

Ok.

Take the last three races. No major layoffs. For sprints, you use the position at the half and stretch call. You should have 6 numbers. Taulbot awarded points in the box as follows: 5 points for 1st, 4 points for 2nd, 3 points for 3rd, 2 points for 4th.

He required at least a 20 point total to warrant a bet. Of course, he had his RULES. All points must have been earned in the last 90 days. Points should have been earned in the same class or higher.

It's based on being in position to win, and it's not that bad for what it is.

The original article was written for the casual fan, someone who may attent the races only 3 or 4 times a year.

[GameTheory]

Taulbot Box -- that is extremely similar to Dan Geer's old "Pro Rated Longshots" method...

[Jaguar]

Cjmilkowski, perhaps I should have explained my point that racing has changed.

The point of contrast between the way racing worked 15 and 20 years ago and the way the game works today is that when Ray Taulbot was handicapping in the 50's, 60's, and 70's, factors such as a horse's consistency and its workouts were quantifiable and were valid components of a handicapper's arsenal.

Whereas today my models show me that other factors, particularly money and trainer patterns, are far more significant statistically.

Therefore, I surmise that the chemical flood has changed the game- since, for example, layoffs mean nothing today- nor do form cycles, -and 15 years ago I made nice money using David Brown's form cycle chart.

I didn't mean to imply that overall the racing game is "gimmicked"-although there is certainly alot of larceny at a few tracks- which continues to be discovered and reported in the racing press- but that even hall of fame trainers are being set down occasionally- for violating the drug rules.

In other words, there have been and continue to be certain actions by trainers today which can be measured and which become part of the handicapper's track models.

Thus, today's models are considerably different from those generated by analyzing horse racing in years past.

Just a small point of clarfication.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Tom]

I thought you were refering to the one he is buried in!
D'Oh :eek:

[cj]

All excellent points Jaguar, I definitely agree!

[Shacopate]

American Turf Monthly had an article a fews years ago called "Mining the Taulbot Gold". They tried to update the "box" for todays standards. Ray was big on horses coming back in 14 days.