Layoff, automatic scratch or possible bet

[Trotman]

Where do you draw the line in regards to layoffs. What is your number of days off before this horse is a no bet. I know for some workouts leading up to first start back will for some play into the decision but if there is no workouts indicated then what's your number.

[Robert Goren]

I generally don't like them. It depends of the caliber of the horse. A stakes horse is more likely run well. What I really hate is a 45-90 day layoff with a bottom claimer.

[Overlay]

Rather than totally eliminating a horse based on days away (or any other criterion, for that matter), which I think skews handicapping toward low-odds underlays, I prefer going with winning probabilities associated with various layoff lengths, and taking them into consideration as one part of a multi-factor fair-odds model for the whole field. The relationship between fair odds and public odds then determines whether and how much to bet on the horse.

[castaway01]

Layoffs are very common in 2010. Check the trainer's record with layoffs and the horse's past speed figures. If the horse fits his current race and you're getting a price, go for it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Do a survey on your circuit or at whatever tracks you are playing.Isolate which class conditions provide the most layoff winners and note the length of the layoff per the condition.Some classes are easier to beat than others off a layoff.You can access the historical charts at Equibase to do this.There are no general rules til specifically applied IMO.

[46zilzal]

With year round racing the stock that are duking it out every three weeks are usually fairly stale. Always look at them

[DeanT]

from a partial db for 09.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 70780.30 71495.30 71691.40
Bet -94364.00 -94364.00 -94364.00
Gain -23583.70 -22868.70 -22672.60

Wins 5662 11285 16608
Plays 47182 47182 47182
PCT .1200 .2392 .3520

ROI 0.7501 0.7577 0.7597
Avg Mut 12.50 6.34 4.32


By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999 0 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0 15 -3916.20 13942.00 0.7191 781 6971 .1120 0.9336
15 30 -9444.10 41104.00 0.7702 2533 20552 .1232 1.0270
30 45 -2698.90 16218.00 0.8336 1137 8109 .1402 1.1684
45 60 -2117.20 6056.00 0.6504 357 3028 .1179 0.9825
60 75 -481.00 2514.00 0.8087 164 1257 .1305 1.0872
75 90 -282.20 1332.00 0.7881 87 666 .1306 1.0886
90 105 -314.20 852.00 0.6312 46 426 .1080 0.8998
105 120 -118.80 658.00 0.8195 36 329 .1094 0.9118
120 135 -280.70 474.00 0.4078 21 237 .0886 0.7384
135 150 36.90 500.00 1.0738 20 250 .0800 0.6666
150 165 -206.70 512.00 0.5963 30 256 .1172 0.9765
165 180 -166.00 498.00 0.6667 30 249 .1205 1.0040
180 195 -235.10 554.00 0.5756 28 277 .1011 0.8423
195 210 -268.50 480.00 0.4406 19 240 .0792 0.6597
210 225 -220.80 450.00 0.5093 25 225 .1111 0.9259
225 240 -193.90 354.00 0.4523 17 177 .0960 0.8004
240 255 -104.00 320.00 0.6750 16 160 .1000 0.8333
255 270 -152.80 254.00 0.3984 12 127 .0945 0.7874
270 999999 -2419.50 7292.00 0.6682 303 3646 .0831 0.6925

Favorites:

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2009Q2\pl_Favorites_1.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 9181.10 9651.40 9679.00
Bet -11164.00 -11164.00 -11164.00
Gain -1982.90 -1512.60 -1485.00

Wins 1908 3057 3746
Plays 5582 5582 5582
PCT .3418 .5477 .6711

ROI 0.8224 0.8645 0.8670
Avg Mut 4.81 3.16 2.58


By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999 0 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0 15 -159.20 1372.00 0.8840 255 686 .3717 1.0875
15 30 -949.60 5044.00 0.8117 853 2522 .3382 0.9895
30 45 -420.40 2394.00 0.8244 414 1197 .3459 1.0119
45 60 -173.30 838.00 0.7932 134 419 .3198 0.9356
60 75 -77.70 316.00 0.7541 49 158 .3101 0.9073
75 90 -38.00 166.00 0.7711 30 83 .3614 1.0574
90 105 -15.30 106.00 0.8557 18 53 .3396 0.9936
105 120 -18.30 64.00 0.7141 9 32 .2813 0.8228
120 135 -9.10 48.00 0.8104 8 24 .3333 0.9752
135 150 -18.50 44.00 0.5795 5 22 .2273 0.6649
150 165 24.30 50.00 1.4860 14 25 .5600 1.6383
165 180 -12.40 54.00 0.7704 9 27 .3333 0.9752
180 195 0.80 40.00 1.0200 9 20 .4500 1.3165
195 210 -33.50 52.00 0.3558 4 26 .1538 0.4501
210 225 -1.30 50.00 0.9740 11 25 .4400 1.2873
225 240 -3.70 36.00 0.8972 7 18 .3889 1.1377
240 255 17.50 24.00 1.7292 7 12 .5833 1.7066
255 270 -19.00 36.00 0.4722 4 18 .2222 0.6501
270 999999 -76.20 430.00 0.8228 68 215 .3163 0.9253


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 -51.40 290.00 0.8228 90 145 .6207
0.50 1.00 -240.20 1870.00 0.8716 472 935 .5048
1.00 1.50 -456.90 2722.00 0.8321 514 1361 .3777
1.50 2.00 -459.40 2810.00 0.8365 438 1405 .3117
2.00 2.50 -417.00 1980.00 0.7894 245 990 .2475
2.50 3.00 -194.70 1032.00 0.8113 114 516 .2209
3.00 3.50 -102.70 334.00 0.6925 28 167 .1677
3.50 4.00 -42.80 98.00 0.5633 6 49 .1224
4.00 4.50 -13.80 24.00 0.4250 1 12 .0833
4.50 5.00 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000

[rwwupl]

60-90 day plus layoffs


My take is very simple. There is nothing any better than a fresh horse. The Tote will tell you if he is "live" or not. If he has positive connections and history and If he passes visual muster too, its a go.

:ThmbUp:

[CBedo]

I combine some of everything everyone else has talked about. I look at the specific circuit and probability of ranges there. I look at the horse and how he has done before and factor that in. I look at the trainer and his pattern matches or lack there of with similar horses; this usually includes looking at workout patterns. I look at the class of the horse. I look at the toteboard.

I'm probably forgetting something, but that about covers it. All of those factors go into a probability increase or penalty. This game is easy huh? :rolleyes:

[Stillriledup]

Try and determine if the layoff is by design or by necessity. RG makes good point, if a cheap claimer is off a long time, that's more alarming than if Zenyatta or Rachel misses 7 months of action.

[Onion Monster]

I like short layoffs. Give me a horse off a bad effort, with some back class, after a month or two away. They usually rebound quite nicely. With these layoffs, I don't pay much attention to the trainer stats (unless a conditioner is especially adept at such a trick). Many of these horses are overworked anyway.

The longer the layoff, the more important the trainer becomes. I look at workouts too, but I've found trainer stats trump works off longer breaks.

[Space Monkey]

look at the trainer and his pattern matches or lack there of with similar horses; this usually includes looking at workout patterns. I look at the class of the horse. .

I'll just add one more thought. It seems to me that horses are winning off layoffs more now than ever. No hard data to support that. Just my impression.

As far as cheap claimers coming off 45 day layoffs goes. They are some of the best bets in the game. They may have been running 3 times a month for 6 months and had their form decline. 45 days is a good "freshening" and you can expect them to revert back to the good form they had previously. What you have to discern is whether the layoff was due to a tired, over raced animal, or injury. 2 things to look for are the addition of front bandages and whether there was a workout prior to the return.

[DeanT]

Good thought Monkey. I often have wondered if horses of yesteryear had a way worse win percentage off + 90 days than now. If anyone has an older DB I would love to compare it to 09.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I'd like to see a stat for races under $7000 claiming, 32-59 day layoff, trainer 18%+, trainer 12-17.99%, trainer under 12%

[bisket]

I'll just add one more thought. It seems to me that horses are winning off layoffs more now than ever. No hard data to support that. Just my impression.

As far as cheap claimers coming off 45 day layoffs goes. They are some of the best bets in the game. They may have been running 3 times a month for 6 months and had their form decline. 45 days is a good "freshening" and you can expect them to revert back to the good form they had previously. What you have to discern is whether the layoff was due to a tired, over raced animal, or injury. 2 things to look for are the addition of front bandages and whether there was a workout prior to the return.
i use this angle frequently, although i need to see a work or two. although if this is the claimers winning level and distance even without the works its a play :ThmbUp:
hope the anni was enjoyable

[Trotman]

RG and Stillriledup thoughts are much the same as mine.
With the better class horses the layoff is not much of a concern for me with the added trainer angle. Low level platers I'll stick with recent form.

[CBedo]

I forgot to add age and time of year as well. Nothing like catching a young quality three year old who has been laid off since the end of his two year old campaign.

[stu]

Let's complicate things:

We are ignoring two big variables in muscle physiology - age and muscle types.

"In animal studies, there is some indication that disuse atrophy affects these two different types of fibers at a different rate." (McComas A. Skeletal Muscle: Form and Function. Champaign: Human Kinetics, 1996.)

Using ideas from the previous and following article (http://www.ptjournalonline.net/cgi/content/abstract/74/1/71), one can assume:

1. Younger horses can come back from layoffs quicker than older horses.
2. Horses with a higher percentage of slow-twitch to fast-twitch ratio can come back from a layoff quicker than horses with a lower percentage.

The problem gets trickier when slow-twitch training (slow long gallops) doesn't get publically recorded in the same way as fast-twitch training (3f breezes).


Scientifically, you want to measure the time between exercise to record disuse/layoff and not the time between races. If a distance horse maintains a steady gallop routine between races, it might be able to come back quicker from a six month layoff than a horse who spent two months in a stall with no training.

Without knowing the day in-and-out of a horse, a handicapper is only guessing on the effect of the layoff on muscles fitness.

My simple solution is to handicap the trainer on layoffs and not the horses,

[redeye007]

" the nearest thing to a cinch at ANY track is a sharply conditioned horse of substantial class, when entered at a suitable distance against inferior animals."

tom ainslie

I see these kind win even after a 1 year layoff

[nobeyerspls]

Layoffs are one of three profitable angles that are gender specific. The mantra is "fresh fillies/cold colts" which holds that the boys need a race and the girls don't. The exceptions occur with individual trainers and, in some instances, with breeding. For example, the male offspring of Meadowlake and Phone Trick run well cold.
As you handicap races for fillies and mares, take a hard look at those with a little freshening. It helps if the work pattern confirms that they are sittting on a strong performance.