Black Box - Custom Settings tracking

[Handiman]

Here are the Handifast defaut settings for Fairgrounds on Monday Feb 1, 2010.

R1. 12-4-5-7
R2. 8-2-7-5
R3. 6-2-4-3
R4. 3-7-8-9
R5. 9-10-2-7
R6. 9-1-4-5
R7. 3-8-5-9
R8. 7-4-3-1
R9. 12-13-4-14
R10. 11-3-2-12

There are the 4 top picks. In case of scratches and for those who may want to see how the top 4 contenders do.

Handi :)

[raybo]

AllData PPs.xls

Black box top 4 selections, in rank order. I did not manually select any pacelines, but did change the default settings that came with the first auto-paceline version.

R1--7 12 2 4
R2--8 9 1 2
R3--2 4 3 1
R4--3 2 4 12
R5--4 8 5 11
R6--9 4 2 7
R7--3 8 4 5
R8--1 7 4 3
R9--7 14 11 13
R10--3 8 11 12

Total time to handicap and post:11 min 32 sec.

[raybo]

Here's a screenshot of the paceline settings I used:

[douglasw32]

Using the combination of both WR-A and WR-P 's top 4, then ranking those using the original FAST FIGURE from V8. to arrive at a consensus based black box. No custom settings.


R1. 12-9-4-7
R2. 8-7-2-9
R3. 6-2-3-4
R4. 3-8-7-2
R5. 2-12-8-6
R6. 9-5-4-2
R7. 8-4-2-9
R8. 7-4-1-8
R9. 7-14-8-11
R10. 3-11-12-8

[goforgin]

TIPS (with my custom settings).

R1. 7-9-4-1
R2. 8-5-3-2
R3. 5-6-4-3
R4. 3-5-7-9
R5. 8-9-2-1
R6. 5-1-7-9
R7. 3-5-6-2
R8. 7-4-1-3
R9. 9-2-3-10
R10. 11-6-3-2

[Jingle]

Homegrown--Top 4

1. 12-9-7-4
2. 8-2-5-9
3. 6-5-2-4
4. 3-7-2-10
5. 12-10-11-6
6. 9-1-4-2
7. 3-4-8-2
8. 7-4-1-2
9. 12-3-8-11
10. 11-6-2-8

[fight]

1-49713
2-8279
3-3652
4-3782
5-97108
6-9165
7-7263
8-7146
9-11914
10-31128

[REBel]

The custom settings in EquiSim for FG, 2-1-10.

1. 7-9-1-3
2. 8-2-5-6
3. 2-6-4-3
4. 3-5-7-2
5. 11-9-7-10
6. 9-4-1-5
7. 2-3-7-4
8. 7-4-1-3
9. 8-3-4-6
10. 6-11-8-3

[atlasaxis]

Ray Taulbot Pace Comp

R1: 7-4-2-9
R2: 2-6-8-7
R3: 6-3-4-2
R4: 8-7-9-5
R5: 8-10-7-4
R6: 3-5-9-4
R7: 1-3-2-4
R8: 4-3-7-1
R9: 1-8-4-5
R10: 1-3-6-8

[Dave Schwartz]

Guys, I just do not have time to handicap each race live (which is how I usually play). However, I can certainly put up my contenders for each race. Understand, that there is no preference to the contenders. That determination is always made as the clock goes from 1 minute to 0 minutes to post.

As a general rule, horses that go off above 7/2 (i.e. 4/1 or higher) are profitable and occasionally will produce a nice $35+ horse. The low odds ones have a tendency to dominate the card but will lose money.

The contenders are in order of their ability to exert pace pressure at the first call, even though some of them will not actually go to the front.

There are two races with an extra contender today just as occasionally there will be races with only 3 contenders and, very rarely, only two.


2/1/10 Fairgrounds

FG02 7-8-2-5
FG06 9-3-6-4
FG07 3-6-5-7
FG08 7-2-1-3
FG09 6-1-10-4-11
FG10 6-3-8-2-1

[fight]

5-7-9-4
7-2-5-8
6-2-4-3
3-7-8-2
8-10-9-11
9-1-5-4
3-4-7-5
4-7-1-3
3-7-1-4
11-2-8-1

[Fwizard]

It seems that most black box selections had the same winners but hats off to the Ray T pace program as it had the last race $$44.80 winner on top....woo hoo!!!

[Dave Schwartz]

Here's my score as I see it:


2/1/10 Fairgrounds
Contenders in no particular order

FG02 7-8-2-5
FG06 9-3-6-4
FG07 3-6-5-7
FG08 7-2-1-3
FG09 6-1-10-4-11
FG10 6-3-8-2-1


FG02 7 6/1 bet 3.80
FG02 8 1/1 no bet 4.20 2.80 2.40
FG02 2 7/2 no bet 3.40 2.60
FG02 5 5/1 bet -

FG06 9 7/5 no bet -
FG06 3 16/1 bet -
FG06 6 15/1 bet 9.60 5.20
FG06 4 3/1 no bet 8.20 3.80 3.20

FG07 3 3/1 no bet 8.60 4.20 2.80
FG07 6 7/1 bet 6.80 4.60
FG07 5 5/1 bet -
FG07 7 7/2 no bet

FG08 7 7/5 no bet 4.80 3.80 2.60
FG08 2 14/1 bet 11.40 5.80
FG08 1 5/2 no bet
FG08 3 5/1 bet -

FG09 6 25/1 bet 13.20
FG09 1 5/2 no bet
FG09 10 11/1 bet -
FG09 4 9/1 bet 8.40 6.40 (heartbreaker)
FG09 11 7/1 bet -

FG10 6 5/1 bet -
FG10 3 9/2 bet 4.20
FG10 8 5/1 bet -
FG10 2 4/1 bet 6.00 3.60
FG10 1 21/1 bet 44.80 18.00 10.00


Horses qualified to bet at 4/1 up
FG02 7 6/1 bet 3.80
FG02 5 5/1 bet -
FG06 3 16/1 bet -
FG06 6 15/1 bet 9.60 5.20
FG07 6 7/1 bet 6.80 4.60
FG07 5 5/1 bet -
FG08 2 14/1 bet 11.40 5.80
FG08 3 5/1 bet -
FG09 6 25/1 bet 13.20
FG09 10 11/1 bet -
FG09 4 9/1 bet 8.40 6.40 (heartbreaker)
FG09 11 7/1 bet -
FG10 6 5/1 bet -
FG10 3 9/2 bet 4.20
FG10 8 5/1 bet -
FG10 2 4/1 bet 6.00 3.60
FG10 1 21/1 bet 44.80 18.00 10.00


Not Qualified (under 4/1)

FG02 8 1/1 no bet 4.20 2.80 2.40
FG02 2 7/2 no bet 3.40 2.60
FG06 9 7/5 no bet -
FG06 4 3/1 no bet 8.20 3.80 3.20
FG07 3 3/1 no bet 8.60 4.20 2.80
FG07 7 7/2 no bet
FG08 7 7/5 no bet 4.80 3.80 2.60
FG08 1 5/2 no bet
FG09 1 5/2 no bet




Horses qualified to bet at 4/1 up

Bets 17
Pays 1 6 9
Pct 6% 35% 53%
Return $44.80 $60.20 $56.80
$Net $2.63 $3.54 $3.34




Not Qualified (under 4/1)

Bets 9
Pays 4 5 5
Pct 44% 55% 55%
Return $25.80 $18.00 $13.60
$Net $2.87 $2.00 $1.51

[raybo]

Well, AllData PPs made $2 for the day. :sleeping:

1st pick hit 3 winners and paid $22 :sleeping:

2nd pick finished 2nd 2 times (2 scratches) :ThmbDown:

3rd pick finished 3rd 5 times

4th pick finished 4th 4 times (3 scratches)

Hit only 1 exacta ($16.80) and no trifectas :ThmbDown:

13 of the top 4 picks were in the money. :ThmbDown:

Nothing to write home about. A little disappointing.

[douglasw32]

R1. 12-9-4-7 / 3rd best won...best after scratches placed. 9.20

R2. 8-7-2-9 / best won, 2nd best showed, 3rd best placed, 4.20w, 16.80 ex, 81.20 tri

R3. 6-2-3-4 / best won, 4th best placed, 3.80w, 13.20 ex

X-R4. 3-8-7-2 / 3rd best won, 2nd best placed, 9.80w, 58.2 ex

X-R5. 2-12-8-6 / 6 & 12 scratched, best showed.

R6. 9-5-4-2 / 3rd best won, 8.20w

X-R7. 8-4-2-9 / 9 & 8 scratched best showed

R8. 7-4-1-8 / best won, 2nd best showed, 4.80w

X-R9. 7-14-8-11 / 14 scratched, nadda

r10. 3-11-12-8 / 12 scratched, best showed

The Way I Play:

Top one after scratches $2.00 to win, $6.00 to place.
(no mdnswt, no turf, no 2yolds (I do not bet them))

<48.00> 27.60, 12.60, 11.60, 16.20 = 68.00 , +20.00

I think I did the math correctly ?

[bigmack]

Flat bet top selection -- $20 bet

REbel: $18.20
Handi: $21.40
Jingle: $21.40
Gofor: $26.80
Atlasaxis: $57.80

[raybo]

Flat bet top selection -- $20 bet

REbel: $18.20
Handi: $21.40
Jingle: $21.40
Gofor: $26.80
Atlasaxis: $57.80

AllData = $20.00