Sunday's Longshots

[Ray2000]

Try to keep a mini-slump from turning into a maxi-slump with these
(only 1 $12 Winner Yesterday)

Betting Win if odds > 3/1 and Key Box Exactas

Dover R11...........4 w/2,3 ...Tiamat-15/1
needed that last start, still needs a driver

Flamboro R10........5 w/1,2,3 ...Armbro Brando-12/1
Front ender couldn't clear in last, moving from 4.5k's to 10.2k's... Jody on the deuce

Fraser R4...........1 w/4,2 ...Red Star Yogi-10/1
Rail will help a lot, gets a check when inside

The BigM R4.........8 w/1,5 ...Sadies Place-10/1
Good Qualifier 1/14, good gate speed, 2xLasix W/P/S type

Rideau-Carleton R9..9 w/4,5 ...Zorgwijk Impact-15/1
Horse in front must stay trotting until passing lane opens

Woodbine R5.........4 w/1,7 ...Ciroc-8/1
In too tough? but 26-3 1st Q followed by 28-2 finish missing by 2 lengths

Woodbine R10........3 w/1,2 ...Thavage Boy-15/1
7 yo would have to shave 6 seconds off of LTM, (I'm losing my mind:confused: )

Good Luck to All

[melman]

Ray--I'll do that $100 a day thing you did before. Had three out of four again last night in the pic4. No way I could come up with that leg one winner. The pic3 for races 789 made up for it quite well. :) Plus the cold race nine exacta paid well.

R1 9 Vinegar Hill 8-1 w/24
R2 1 Red Star Catch 5-2 w/52
R3 2 Right Out 3-1 w/17
R4 1 Terroronthebeach 7-2 w/38
R5 8 Real Platinum 8-1 w/47
R6 6 Jk's Getupngo 8-1 w/47
R7 1 Allamerican Titqan 9-2 w/94
R8 8 Kingsandqueens 9-2 w/72
R9 2 Cowgirls n Indians 3-1 w/16
R10 3 Hypnotist 5-1 w82
R11 3 Great Soul 3-1 w/71

Pic4
R6 647
R7 19
R8 872
R9 21

[Ray2000]

It's all gravy from here ... melman, nice 'cappin:ThmbUp:

R2 Winner / Exacta... $5.80 / $22.00
R6 Winner........... $25.40 (close to $300+ ex)
R7 Winner / Exacta... $7.40 / $62.60

[willphorse]

Ray--I'll do that $100 a day thing you did before. Had three out of four again last night in the pic4. No way I could come up with that leg one winner. The pic3 for races 789 made up for it quite well. :) Plus the cold race nine exacta paid well.

R1 9 Vinegar Hill 8-1 w/24
R2 1 Red Star Catch 5-2 w/52
R3 2 Right Out 3-1 w/17
R4 1 Terroronthebeach 7-2 w/38
R5 8 Real Platinum 8-1 w/47
R6 6 Jk's Getupngo 8-1 w/47
R7 1 Allamerican Titqan 9-2 w/94
R8 8 Kingsandqueens 9-2 w/72
R9 2 Cowgirls n Indians 3-1 w/16
R10 3 Hypnotist 5-1 w82
R11 3 Great Soul 3-1 w/71

Pic4
R6 647
R7 19
R8 872
R9 21


Mel,

Heard you like horses 3rd off layoff. 6th at Dover this evening, 6 Roses and Olives is making 3rd start back, and is 10-1 M/L. CC Opted to drive. Looks poor as far as form goes, but maybe with the big driver change? Trainer pretty good too?

[willphorse]

Hope you had time to catch it.

Dead Heat for 1st @ 6-1.

Paid $5.60....$6.60

Ex Box with favorite paid $47.20 total

[willphorse]

Race is now over, but at Dover, Race 8, there was another 3rd back from a small break.

The 4 Super Grover was 3rd back off small layoff, made a "negative" driver change, and finishes a well raced 2nd at 17-1!

Mel, you must really be cleaning up tonight!

[melman]

Willphorse--You heard correctly third off a layoff is one angle I give serious attention to. IMO "CC" a good man to have driving your horse. To bad "Roses" nose was not a little bit bigger. Still the DH exacta paid quite well. Nice capping on your part.

[melman]

Willphorse---I prefer the layoff to be of at least sixty day even better ninety days or more. However Super Grover with giant odds was worth the shot. Hope you cashed some on that race. Race 12 the 2 with cc driving looks very strong. Problem may be very short odds.

[melman]

Willphorse---Dover's R13 may be interesting. The nine is 2nd of a layoff but he gets the nine (trailer) post which is quite often underbet. Have to watch the odds on that one.

[willphorse]

Willphorse---Dover's R13 may be interesting. The nine is 2nd of a layoff but he gets the nine (trailer) post which is quite often underbet. Have to watch the odds on that one.

Mel,

In the 12th, the 2 won for fun at 2-5. Your were right in both aspects, very strong, and short priced, but hey a winner is a winner!

[willphorse]

Willphorse---Dover's R13 may be interesting. The nine is 2nd of a layoff but he gets the nine (trailer) post which is quite often underbet. Have to watch the odds on that one.

Does look interesting. A few notes about the race that confuses me just a little.

3 Giddy up n giggle gets good post, and Morgan, but was last race legit? Parked 1/4, tucks pocket and comes home in stretch. Will be overbet.

8 What A View drops in class after winning in 1:54.2 and being parked the 1st quarter? And has been off 17 days. WHY?

9 One Eyed Jack broke in NW3, qual looks good, gets 2nd lasix, and comes to this spot? Why not a NW3? Gets good driver!


In my opinion a horse to watch out for at longer odds here is 1 McKenzies Treasure. Was favorite at Yonkers at this class. Yonkers has much better horses than Dover! Draws rail, and George Dennis. Worth a def. look.


Thinking 1-9-8 Ex Box. Any pre-race thoughts?

[Ray2000]

Just one Exacta but it made my day...:)

Dover R11..............126 no
Flamboro R10..........635 no.............showed $6.90
Fraser R4...............475 no
The BigM R4...........731 no
Rideau-Carleton R9..954 Winner $44.40 Exacta $303.30 Tri $1369.70
Woodbine R5...........453 Winner $5.50
Woodbine R10........2103 no


Bets in $74, Back $353, net $279


Good luck guys...

[willphorse]

Talking about poor luck. 3 Gets ANOTHER pocket trip to win. Guess what was right behind! 8-1-9! Oh well lol. It happens! Nice drive by Morgan

[willphorse]

Just one Exacta but it made my day...:)

Dover R11..............126 no
Flamboro R10..........635 no.............showed $6.90
Fraser R4...............475 no
The BigM R4...........731 no
Rideau-Carleton R9..954 Winner $44.40 Exacta $303.30 Tri $1369.70
Woodbine R5...........453 Winner $5.50
Woodbine R10........2103 no


Bets in $74, Back $353, net $279


Good luck guys...

Phenomenal Hit Ray! Excellent! :jump:

[lamboguy]

Just one Exacta but it made my day...:)

Dover R11..............126 no
Flamboro R10..........635 no.............showed $6.90
Fraser R4...............475 no
The BigM R4...........731 no
Rideau-Carleton R9..954 Winner $44.40 Exacta $303.30 Tri $1369.70
Woodbine R5...........453 Winner $5.50
Woodbine R10........2103 no


Bets in $74, Back $353, net $279


Good luck guys...nice hit there ray, keep up the good work. i have no clue how much you had the exacta for, but whatever it was happened to be a huge part of the pool!

[Ray2000]

Thx guys

I'm just a 2$ punter at the "B" tracks in winter, but

Rideau did have $2692 in the pool

[melman]

Willphone-I'll be watching that nine for his next start. He went off 5/2 which was much lower than I was looking for, You did as nice capping of that race. Might be a few winners coming back out of that race.

Ray---Old "triple digit" Ray strikes again. That cash just keeps flowing into Western Penna. :)

[willphorse]

1 More for the night. Longshot in the 14th at Dover. W-P-S opportunity, and could Key in Exacta.

6 Oreti Beach N 8-1

Seems to be rounding into form, and has had bad posts in last 5 races. Draws somewhat better here, not to mention alot to play against in this race. Many are bumping from Delaware Owned to Open NW 5501L5. Other threats look to be 7 and 8, and there is NO WAY Tony Morgan wins back to back on chalk. Especially from the outside. Maybe Givins on the 8, but right now, that even dropped in odds.

Liking 6 Oreti Beach N, W-P-S, as well as a 1-6-8 Ex Box

[willphorse]

6 Dropped to 7/2, and was very rough gated. Stayed in stride, but rough. 5 Came home late, with 3-1.

Ray, any chance you have some database data for the following.

ALL horses 3rd off 20+ day layoff with ANY driver change.

1 Negative I am looking for also. How about TONY MORGAN back to back wins?


Again, Ray, excellent hit!

Mel, put 1 and 9 on watchlist. Could be a key race for sure!

[melman]

Willphorse--I'll finish off the night with the 9 in R15. Looking for 3-1 or better.Ex's of 9 with 412 and a 49. Nice chatting with you. That Ray (the computer guy) has database info on just about anything. :) That driver change question might pose a problem.

[LottaKash]

Glad to see you guys are doing just fine....:jump:

Me I am an on an 0 for 7 shcneid these past 2 weeks....I have a hard time with that, so I will laying low for a little bit more, at least until my types start doing their respectives jobs more correctly....:D ...

best,

[Ray2000]

Will

USTA has 3269 starts and 566 wins for Morgan in 2009
My base isn't as complete

I have 2835 starts with 508 wins, and 97 back to backs, including last race one day followed by win with first start the next day


The 3rd start back records will take a little more time, not sure I can do it. (that driver change is a problem.)

[willphorse]

Ray---- Thanks for the reply so quickly!! How about just 3rd off layoff??
I appreciate running the query for me!


Mel---- It was nice chatting with you also. This is the most informative Harness place on the web. And what other site can you get this type of capping ability. Plus the cappers in this harness section are so personable as well!

LK---- Cold Streaks happen. If you remember correctly, I was on quite a cold streak when I started e-mailing you in August, and you had e-mailed me some PRICELESS information. Even though the e-mails have stopped, I still look over all you sent to keep up to date. "Trinity" tells all LK, and I owe all to you!


Have an excellent night guys, and hope the winners keep coming for ya!

[Ray2000]

will

In my base for 2009

Using criteria
1st start back after 20 or more days of rest,
then a start within 14 days
then the next start (3rd back after layoff) within 14 days


__________________ Starters......... Win%............ ROI%
1st start back.... 46390............ 11.5%.......... -26.4%
2nd start back.... 33139............ 12.8%.......... -22.4%
3rd start back.... 24400............ 13.2%.......... -23.3%

[melman]

Ray--How about this set-up. Third start back from a layoff of 90 days or more with the third start back within ten days of the second start back. Still nothing with this is "automatic" still looking at what the horses past figs were and who is driving today.

[LottaKash]

will

In my base for 2009

Using criteria
1st start back after 20 or more days of rest,
then a start within 14 days
then the next start (3rd back after layoff) within 14 days


__________________ Starters......... Win%............ ROI%
1st start back.... 46390............ 11.5%.......... -26.4%
2nd start back.... 33139............ 12.8%.......... -22.4%
3rd start back.... 24400............ 13.2%.......... -23.3%

Ray & Mel, I believe, from just off of the top of this old head, that the age of the horse, has much to do with 1/2/3 off of layoffs....Older horses (depending on each animal and his trainer) don't do as well on these layoff angles as younger ones....I would be curious about what the numbers may reveal more precisely, when looking at the prime-ripening horses, those being the 4 & 5 year olds, and to a somewhat lesser extent, the 6-yr old horses, may be....I give horses 7 & up, less credit than the younger ones in comeback races, as it takes them a bit longer, I think, to comeback , and many good trainers prefer to race them more slowly into racing shape, to bypass, I would suspect, further harm to these types, coming off of their vacations....Still again, it must surely have all to do with the individual horses themselves, as well as the specific trainers (and that, would be hard to keep track of on a global scale)...The 2 & 3yo's, are in a category all to themselves, just like human children, as often the case, they are a world apart from the older still-maturing, and the more mature ones....

I have been doing a bit of research lately, just looking, "solely" at 4th place finishes in this regard, as well as in drops in class....I like horses that finished 4th (no more or less) that have shown an early try for the lead, at some point in the comeback races (or the race prior to a drop), and finishing evenly to 4th, as well as a good close to 4th from a disadvantaged post-position.... A solid 1/4 when making that bid, included with this type, helps much...

Perhaps it is too much to ask to break it down by age & trainer, I suppose...

Well, just some thoughts and questions, on the matter...

best,

[Ray2000]

Mel, here's what I get for an extended layoff (90 day) and 3rd start within 10 days of 2nd and 20 days of 1st start back

Stats are always full of surprises.
The 3rd start back is still slightly better than the 2nd or 1st start (on Win%) but apparently gamblers shun 1st start back after a long layoff so much that the ROI (-24.3%) is relatively much better.

But caution here, this pays no attention to odds, track, meds or drivers


__________________ Starters......... Win%............ ROI%
1st start back.... 4977............ 10.1%.......... -24.3%
2nd start back.... 2589............ 12.1%.......... -33.2%
3rd start back.... 1377............ 12.7%.......... -31.8%

[Ray2000]

LK and anyone interested..


At the bottom of my To-Do list is "Transfer race data to a real database like Microsoft Access". :)

Right now I'm using an Excel spreadsheet file, 488,000 rows (starters) by 78 columns, including qualifiers and scratch lines, one file for each year.

So I can't write a simple Query and wait for the computer to come back with a report. Instead, I can do simple searches by sorting but for criteria relating to previous starts, I have to do that by hand using formulas, and boy do errors sneak in un-announced. :confused:


So soon as I get some free time, I'll take a look at the age/trainer effect.

[LottaKash]

LK and anyone interested..


At the bottom of my To-Do list is "Transfer race data to a real database like Microsoft Access". :)

Right now I'm using an Excel spreadsheet file, 488,000 rows (starters) by 78 columns, including qualifiers and scratch lines, one file for each year.

So I can't write a simple Query and wait for the computer to come back with a report. Instead, I can do simple searches by sorting but for criteria relating to previous starts, I have to do that by hand using formulas, and boy do errors sneak in un-announced. :confused:


So soon as I get some free time, I'll take a look at the age/trainer effect.

Cool Ray.....I don't envy you, but, I am glad that you like to do such things, tho....Good luck with this....

I would be glad to see the results of this, or any further results, at that...

I will pray that you do not receive any more un-announced interlopers...:jump:

best,

[Ray2000]

Johnny

Here's the breakdown I have on aged horses coming back after a 90+ day rest.
The sample size is getting small, that old "Margin of Error" is getting bigger.:)

For trainers, the number of starters is too small to mean much.
Some track websites (like The Meadows) have free links to TrackMaster stats for trainers with:

..."Starts with horses making their 1st start off a layoff of >= 30 days".

but very few starters doesn't mean much



4 and 5 year olds

__________________ Starters......... Win%............ ROI%
1st start back.... 1959............. 9.2%.......... -27.9%
2nd start back.... 1058............ 11.0%.......... -30.0%
3rd start back.... 540............. 14.6%.......... -17.8%


aged horses 6+

__________________ Starters......... Win%............ ROI%
1st start back.... 1819............. 9.3%.......... -32.8%
2nd start back.... 972............. 11.3%.......... -40.5%
3rd start back.... 575.............. 9.7%.......... -47.8%


Like you said, 2 and 3 year olds are in a category all to themselves...

[LottaKash]

Thanks for the speedy post on this, RAY....Not as good as, I once would have surmised at first thought....But, facts are facts...

Trainer's style in the comebacks is "still" the key....No shortcuttin' that, I wouldn't think...Especially after seeing the reality of these numbers....Age is mostly irrelevant for me now...Sobering..

Thx again....:jump:

best,