Dropping off a win

[coachgonzo]

Many of you have tremendously large data bases that have proved most helpful in the past.

If any of you have any #'s on the % of winners which drop in claim price off of a win, it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance for your help.

[BlueShoe]

Do not have db numbers to post, but we had a recent thread on this topic. See the "Suspicious drop" thread on the general racing discussion forum. It is currently on page 8. Most of us believe that in claiming races a horse dropping in price off of a win is an awful wager. You get a short priced runner that may have a serious physical problem and be unsound. My policy is to never wager on these types, and to try and beat it. If I cannnot come up with the logical winner the race is passed.

[PhantomOnTour]

To add to the previous post, the contrary is often a good bet.
That is, a beaten favorite moving up in class.

If the horse belongs to a good outfit you may be in business. Throw in a + jock switch or distance change or equipment change and my confidence grows. Ofcourse, those who follow trainers closely know which barns pull this move off.

[kenwoodallpromos]

How about dropping from NWL to NWY?

[PhantomOnTour]

How about dropping from NWL to NWY?
I dont think that is a class drop. Non winners lifetime (lets say N3L) is a lower class than non winners year (like N2Y)...the N2Y horse could be 6 for 8 lifetime and making his first start of the year, N3L is well...N3L.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You'll have to make those restricted distinctions more clear a lot of the time.

Later in the year a N3L horse has a class advantage over the time restricted horses.If it's N1Y(current year) and horses have been racing all season,they are chronic losers.And it gets even more underlined when it's N1Y,N2Y(2 years),those horses are the very worst on the grounds at low level tracks and haven't won in 2 seasons.

If you have a 3yo or late blooming 4yo who broke it's maiden and won a N2L recently it qualifies as a multiple winner if in form now.

But early in the season this horse in a N1Y(current year or 6 months)could be facing multiple winners from last season and horses who have racked up 8-15 wins lifetime and will be at a disadvantage.

The N2y,N3y(current year)races get pretty competitive and will dominate the lifetime horses nearly always.

The new (B) condition out there brings together horses who haven't won 2 or 3 in 2 years and/or haven't won 3 or 4 lifetime.These can be pretty competitive events bringing 2 two polar opposites of horses together,but both are in shape.


As to the topic.What everyone else has said is pretty accurate.Except towards the ends of meets.Many trainers will drop horses off wins looking for more purse money/claim money before the meet ends and I would suspect they might even want to unload a few horses for travel purposes.

[Dave Schwartz]

Here you go. Not much to be excited about.

Derived from 2009, Clm & OC, 5-9 fur, older (no N2Ls)


Last Race Winners + Class Level Change Today
(+1 means dropping 1 level)

2009-claiming.
503-LRPos4+207-CLst
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st -3 2,003 255 12.7 $1.38 0.94 0.98 0.95
1st -2 1,971 338 17.1 $1.78 1.26 1.09 1.15
1st -1 3,505 618 17.6 $1.64 1.33 1.04 1.11
1st 0 6,343 1,185 18.7 $1.68 1.47 0.98 1.11
1st +1 3,801 681 17.9 $1.48 1.48 0.95 1.06
1st +2 842 174 20.7 $1.42 1.63 0.97 1.09
1st above 1,641 326 19.9 $1.54 1.63 0.98 1.12

[Johnny V]

Here you go. Not much to be excited about.

Derived from 2009, Clm & OC, 5-9 fur, older (no N2Ls)


Last Race Winners + Class Level Change Today
(+1 means dropping 1 level)

2009-claiming.
503-LRPos4+207-CLst
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st -3 2,003 255 12.7 $1.38 0.94 0.98 0.95
1st -2 1,971 338 17.1 $1.78 1.26 1.09 1.15
1st -1 3,505 618 17.6 $1.64 1.33 1.04 1.11
1st 0 6,343 1,185 18.7 $1.68 1.47 0.98 1.11
1st +1 3,801 681 17.9 $1.48 1.48 0.95 1.06
1st +2 842 174 20.7 $1.42 1.63 0.97 1.09
1st above 1,641 326 19.9 $1.54 1.63 0.98 1.12



I just want to be sure I am reading this table correctly. It is for horses who have finished 4th or better in their last in this category (after the 503?). The impact values for example are 1.26 for horses that have gone up in class 2 levels and 1.63 for horses dropping 2 levels. Is this correct??
What do PIV and HV stand for??
Thanks Dave, I am just not familiar with some of these terms .

[Sham]

Not to speak for Dave, but just in case he missed your question...

LRPos4 is Last Race position 4, which is the finish position

PIV is Pool Impact Value, described in this post:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=278821&highlight=Pool+Impact#post278821

[46zilzal]

Sounds like a dermatology office is taking a sample to pathology.

A wen is a type of benign skin growth related to a sebaceous gland. Once removed one would DROP off the WEN to the pathologist.

Sounds just like it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow.

[bcgreg]

Have to be careful with droppers off a win for sure but...

There are owners and trainers chasing the money right now as things aren't as good for some in the "bills paying" department. They might be trying to steal another purse while the horse is in form and sell the horse at the same time...just me 2 cents (and that is probably all it is worth :lol: )

bcgreg

P.S. What Cincy said...sorry.

[DeanT]

Wow.

:D

[Jackal]

You can't always group optional claiming races in with claiming races. An optional claiming race is pretty much the same as an allowance race. Personal Ensign was raced in a optional claimer as a tune up.

[Dave Schwartz]

Not to speak for Dave, but just in case he missed your question...

LRPos4 is Last Race position 4, which is the finish position

PIV is Pool Impact Value, described in this post:

Sham,

You are right on.

This table is last race winners, and class rise or drop today. Thus, "1st & -3" means the horse is actually rising 3 levels today.


BTW, thanks for that link. It was precisely something I needed at this very moment for something I was working on.


Dave

[Johnny V]

Not to speak for Dave, but just in case he missed your question...

LRPos4 is Last Race position 4, which is the finish position

PIV is Pool Impact Value, described in this post:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=278821&highlight=Pool+Impact#post278821
Thank you Sham. That was also an interesting link.