Full month System Test,

[rusrious]

Heyyyyy Fellas, took sometime off, quit smoking on Newyears, so trying to stay away from some things for a while, and now Im ready to make my move in the real world of Horse Handicappin

As you all might already know, Im huge On the Progressive betting thing, So Im running a month long log of my activites, and will post them here.

These races below are in time order, and will be progressively betting them,...


Aqu---R1-6----12:30

LRL---R2-3-----1:03

GP---R2-4----1:39

BEU--R3-2----2:11

GP---R4-9----2:28

PHA--R6-6---2:31

TUP--R3-7---3:19

GP---R8-4----4:33

CT---1-11----7:15

LA---R1-4----10:00

[rusrious]

1st Bet, Aqu, R1 #6 going at 4/5

First leg, I want to win $16

$20 Bet on #6 t0 win

[rusrious]

1st Bet, Aqu, R1 #6 going at 4/5

First leg, I want to win $16

$20 Bet on #6 t0 win

Ran 2nd, beat out by a 6/1 horse,

-$20

Laurel cancelled for the day, so next race is GP at 1:39ish

[rusrious]

OK done for the day. My rule is to stop after first win of my day. My tartget was $16, I got $16.80, hitting on my 2nd race of my picks.

My targets for 4 days will be like this,

$16, $32, $64, $128 in 4 days.

So, in 4 days, I should clear in profits, $240 ...

So, for this month, at the end of this run, I should be at $1,920 in profits.

$23,000 a year, not to bad.

Lets see what happens,

[Robert Goren]

Do not try this at home. Rusious makes this stuff work becuase he one of the there is at picking winners.

[cj]

Well, I will say this won't work in the long run. It may in the short. Another very big problem is you don't know the final odds when you bet. You may bet a certain amount based on a horse being 7 to 5 that winds up 3 to 5. That is going to wreak havoc on this type of "system".

[Saratoga_Mike]

Is this like going in and playing red on the roulette wheel for $10, then if it loses you double down and so on until red shows up? On the 10th spin of the wheel with no reds, you've got $5,120 on red and it's red and you win....$10.

[rusrious]

No, nothng like that, This takes skill, in finding a winner, and being confident, My pick will win 50% of the time. Im only going 4 steps deep, and not all my picks are chalk, so I might even have a 7/1 on my 4th race, and still only have to bet $30 to hit my target.

Im confident this will work for ME.

So far, Im up $16.80 after day 1, and 2 races

[rusrious]

Heyyyyy Fellas, took sometime off, quit smoking on Newyears, so trying to stay away from some things for a while, and now Im ready to make my move in the real world of Horse Handicappin

As you all might already know, Im huge On the Progressive betting thing, So Im running a month long log of my activites, and will post them here.

These races below are in time order, and will be progressively betting them,...


Aqu---R1-6----12:30

LRL---R2-3-----1:03

GP---R2-4----1:39

BEU--R3-2----2:11

GP---R4-9----2:28

PHA--R6-6---2:31

TUP--R3-7---3:19

GP---R8-4----4:33

CT---1-11----7:15

LA---R1-4----10:00

Aqu---R1-6----12:30-- PLACE $2.30

LRL---R2-3-----1:03--CANCELLED

GP---R2-4----1:39--WIN--$5.20-

BEU--R3-2----2:11--place--$2.80

GP---R4-9----2:28--lost

PHA--R6-6---2:31--WIN--$4.80

TUP--R3-7---3:19--win--$2.20

GP---R8-4----4:33--place--$2.60

CT---1-11----7:15--Cancelled

LA---R1-4----10:00--WIN---$4.20

10 races
4 wins
3 places
0 show
1 lost
2 cancel

[rusrious]

1-31-10

Hey fellas, same principles, stop after first win, target for the day is $32.



Tam R1-6----12:35

CT R5-6---2:36

TAM R6-5---2:44

TUP R3-3----3:26

TAM R8-7---3:40

AQU R8-1---3:49

SA R2-3---4:01

TAM R9-2---4:07

TUP R5-7---4:24

GP R9-6---5:14

[Backstretch Pirate]

1-31-10

Hey fellas, same principles, stop after first win, target for the day is $32.



Tam R1-6----12:35



This is why this system does not work. Off at 1/5 this horse finished a well beaten 3rd. wow!

[newtothegame]

Actually, if someone had a rather large bank roll.....(providing he can hit the win rate he claims), it could work.
He would never go more then four races deep (again based on his hit rate), and all he has to do is keep piling the money on till he catches that win rate....
(providing I am reading this correctly) lol
Yesterday, two races in and he has his profit he wanted realized...
but I could also see how this would not be for the faint of heart.....
When its 16.00 dollars trying to achive.....not much risk...when its substantially larger...well I am not sure I would want to go four deep when its in the hundreds or thousands...

[Backstretch Pirate]

Actually, if someone had a rather large bank roll.....(providing he can hit the win rate he claims), it could work.
He would never go more then four races deep (again based on his hit rate), and all he has to do is keep piling the money on till he catches that win rate....
(providing I am reading this correctly) lol
Yesterday, two races in and he has his profit he wanted realized...
but I could also see how this would not be for the faint of heart.....
When its 16.00 dollars trying to achive.....not much risk...when its substantially larger...well I am not sure I would want to go four deep when its in the hundreds or thousands...

Do you not know how much he now has to bet on his next horse today?
This system cannot work and will not work, regardless of bankroll!

[Backstretch Pirate]

Actually, if someone had a rather large bank roll.....(providing he can hit the win rate he claims), it could work.
He would never go more then four races deep (again based on his hit rate), and all he has to do is keep piling the money on till he catches that win rate....
(providing I am reading this correctly) lol


As soon as he loses 4 in a row he has taken a real bath, and will not recoup that money with his system. This type of betting has been proven again and again to be a shortcut to the poorhouse.

[newtothegame]

As soon as he loses 4 in a row he has taken a real bath, and will not recoup that money with his system. This type of betting has been proven again and again to be a shortcut to the poorhouse.

Yeah that was kind of my thoughts. But, if he can hit a 25% hit rate, he would in essence never get past four. Just takes nerve I guess to chase "lost" money. But to each his own and I wish him the best with his endeavors. I just think once a money is lost in a given race...its LOST!

[Backstretch Pirate]

Yeah that was kind of my thoughts. But, if he can hit a 25% hit rate, he would in essence never get past four. Just takes nerve I guess to chase "lost" money. But to each his own and I wish him the best with his endeavors. I just think once a money is lost in a given race...its LOST!

Unless he wins at a 100% rate he will most assuredly lose 4 in a row at some point.

[Backstretch Pirate]

His 3/5 shot just won at TAM. I'm sure we're going to hear about how well the system works.

[cj]

And again, nobody knows the final odds, thus the "correct" amount to bet, until it is too late. With the horses he is picking, they will usually go down, and by more than a jump or two at the smaller tracks. Good luck, but you aren't fooling anyone.

[Backstretch Pirate]

And again, nobody knows the final odds, thus the "correct" amount to bet, until it is too late. With the horses he is picking, they will usually go down, and by more than a jump or two at the smaller tracks. Good luck, but you aren't fooling anyone.

We know these horses are chalk for starters. Suppose just one of his horses loses in the sequence. Even if the odds don't go down, he has to dump out a huge amount of money to hit his target for the day. If he ever loses 4 races in a row he is destroyed. This is a mathematical certainty.

[newtothegame]

We know these horses are chalk for starters. Suppose just one of his horses loses in the sequence. Even if the odds don't go down, he has to dump out a huge amount of money to hit his target for the day. If he ever loses 4 races in a row he is destroyed. This is a mathematical certainty.

Yeah that was my concern earlier.....
From a mathematical perspective though, it would appear safe as long as ya have the stomache fot it....
If chalks win at about a 31% clip......(not my number, i thought i heard it here), then if he bet the chalks, in theory he would win every third to fourth race. So, again in theory, he would never have to fo past four or more deep to hit. But math probabilities are just that. Probabilities! There is nothing to say it happens ALL the time. Its just over a PERIOD of time. What that period is?? If we knew that, we could all be rich. If you flip a coin long enough, you will get 50%. It may be in the first two flips, or the first 5000 flips ;)

[Backstretch Pirate]

Yeah that was my concern earlier.....
From a mathematical perspective though, it would appear safe as long as ya have the stomache fot it....
If chalks win at about a 31% clip......(not my number, i thought i heard it here), then if he bet the chalks, in theory he would win every third to fourth race. So, again in theory, he would never have to fo past four or more deep to hit.

This is where you are wrong newtothegame. Favorites win about 1/3 of the time. However, you could go a whole card or 2 without 1 favorite winning.
Do you understand this concept?

[Backstretch Pirate]

If his win rate is 50% he will lose 4 in a row 1 in every 16 sequences.
1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2 =1/16. This isn't just theory either.

[newtothegame]

This is where you are wrong newtothegame. Favorites win about 1/3 of the time. However, you could go a whole card or 2 without 1 favorite winning.
Do you understand this concept?

thats what I said......read my post again...I said favorites win about 31% ....then I went on to say "In THEORY"...and I explained that with probabilities.....
I am fully aware he could loose ten in a row if thats how the horse betting gods would have it....

[Backstretch Pirate]

then I went on to say "In THEORY"...

There is no mathematical theory in the world that would support this betting scheme. That's the point you are missing. You said in an earlier post "in theory he should never have to go 4 deep". That's plain wrong.

[newtothegame]

There is no mathematical theory in the world that would support this betting scheme. That's the point you are missing. You said in an earlier post "in theory he should never have to go 4 deep". That's plain wrong.

ok...this will be my last post on this subject as I think we have gotten off of his topic.....and maybe your just not understanding that I am saying the SAME THING as you even if you do not agree with my words...
but the fact still remains that over a period of time....(again, it could just so happen to turn out that way today or it may not) but, chaLKS WIN 31% of the time.
if that is true...which it has been proven, then in THEORY he SHOULD win one out of every three to four races.There would be no need to go past fouor races IN THEORY. Now , that thats not reality. You can pick ten different tracks and see that chalks will not win at that clip. Meaning that you may find a card where the chalk wins more...or less. Again, we agree....
But it doesnt change the 31% win rate. Those are larger samples.
But again, this is not about whats reality. Again, you and I both agree that at some point, betting as he does, it could be a costly venture. He may find five winners on a card...it proves nothing in the big scheme of things. (As he has already stated that when he hits, thats it).
You and I agree backsttretch...I dont see where the issue is that you are thinking I dont comprehend....:bang: :lol:

[Backstretch Pirate]

if that is true...which it has been proven, then in THEORY he SHOULD win one out of every three to four races.There would be no need to go past fouor races IN THEORY.
Who's theory?? In theory??? There is no theory out there that says this! :bang:

[douglasw32]

http://math.ucsd.edu/~anistat/gamblers_ruin.html

Scroll to the bottom and play the simulation a few times =)

[castaway01]

Who's theory?? In theory??? There is no theory out there that says this! :bang:

It was confusing because he keeps saying "in theory", which as you point out is obviously 1000% wrong, but then he seemed to understand the whole coin-flip thing (where it could come up heads a bunch of times in a row even though obviously it would be 50-50 in the long run).

Hey, you tried.

[rusrious]

LA

R2-4---2:57
R4-3---3:51

PM

R2-5---4:31

[rusrious]

Beu

R4-3---2:30

Sun

R12-5---6:49

TUP

R1-7---2:33