How Musicians Handicap and Win!

[VetScratch]

Last night I got lucky with the bass player from a touring band that has been in Erie about a week.

This morning, he taught me how musicians handicap.

(1) You select your eight favorite performance ratings.

(2) For the eight most common surface/distance/condition events at any track, keep a history of the winner's ratings for each factor.

(3) After eight weeks, calculate the harmonic mean for each of the eight winning-effort factors in each of the eight event categories.

(4) You now have eight winning profiles, one for each of your eight common event types.

(5) Handicap each of the eight event types by entering your winning profile horse as an extra horse, then evaluate only your preferred octave of performance ratings for all horses.

(6) In any race where all starters rank below your winning profile horse, box Trifectas using the two highest ranked starters with the two lowest ranked starters (musicians refer to this wager as a resonating chord).

(7) Start watching MTV to pick up tips and pointers for "Living Large" because it won't be long before you will be shopping for your "signature" jewelry and rides.

(8) Oh yeah... one more thing, as the first member of your posse, hire the nerd that you tormented in math class to calculate the harmonic means for you!

HMEAN = reciprical of ((Sum of recipricals of X) divided by n)

[JustRalph]

I understood most of the post...... I am wondering how you would apply the circle of fifths to get the numbers for a tri box.
I understand all but:

"I got lucky with the bass player" What does that mean? LOL

:D :D :D :D

[VetScratch]

LOL!

;) I mean't lucky to have encountered a learning experience, just as your titilating reply motivated me to find out what the circle of fifths might be? When I looked around this morning, I was merely surrounded by the usual clutter of empty pints!

[JustRalph]

Very nice.... reply......


I am curious about the avatar......is that a self portrait? Mine is....

[VetScratch]

Keilan,
I’m really not the least bit interested reading about some new love interest. This is not the place to practice coming out of the closet.
You would have my vote without reservation on this issue if only you had adopted a more gender specific handle for this board.

In my case, VetScratch stands for V.S. (my real initials), which is a common way for gals to avoid getting crank calls and getting approached by freaks. I don't know what to make of you. :eek:

[keilan]

Scratchy

"In order to avoid being called a flirt, she always yielded easily."-Charles, Count Talleyrand


P.S.

Regardless of which way you fly I’m still not interested in your “affairs of the heart”. Your posts are far too masculine.

FYI this is a discussion forum for horseplayers -- we don’t pass out phone numbers or municipal addresses so while I appreciate a lady’s safety IT IS NOT POSSIBLE to receive crank calls or be approached by anyone from this board.


Keilan is the first 3 letters of both my first and last name FYI.

[VetScratch]

Keilan,
I’m still not interested in your “affairs of the heart”.
FYI this is a discussion forum for horseplayers.

I assume you must mean exclusively for "somber" horseplayers. Can you say "two plus two equals four" without squinting and gritting your teeth?

Let's see what you know about the affairs of the horses.

What did you get out of my original post to this thread (except maybe dizziness)?

For example, how would you characterize the only races that would qualify as playable races?

Why would the public find such races difficult to focus on and challenging to handicap?

For the two top ranked horses, what unappealing aspect of their previous performances probably earned top ratings (hint: most consistent mediocrity)?

In such a race, what probably makes the two bottom ranked horses more attractive than the public may perceive?

Do you have a sense of humor when you are cashing rather than gnashing? If not, as Colin Powell warned the French, you run the risk of becoming irrelevant in a world ruled by the X-generation. We all find truth and humor when we watch "Friends."

[kenwoodall]

I like arabians- only 4 notes in their music!!
I played a jazz bass and now play harmonica.

[B. Comin']

Originally posted by JustRalph
ooooohhhh man..... The F word....... !!!!

:o J. Ralph;

By the looks of your post, you appear to be bored with EQUISIM.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes this thread has been edited....and no I don't feel the need to provide an explanation as to WHY....however:

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[keilan]

Can you say “I act like a turtle when I drink all those pints” without falling over!

Yeah it really appears like you have sought to be gender anonymous. A girl can’t be too careful with all the weirdo’s in the world.

You love the attention that’s the reason you come onto a horse discussion forum hours afterwards and brashly talk about your one-night-stand with some band member passing through town.

Do you really think people here are that interested in you? Grow up and show some class.

And yes I have a great sense of humor -- those that know me think I’m a pretty funny guy.

See ya

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by B. Comin'
:o J. Ralph; By the looks of your post, you appear to be bored with EQUISIM.

I don't know where you get that from? not sure where you are going with it, but I am very excited about the new release that is coming up. I can't wait for the latest version. It should be out in a week or so........

[VetScratch]

Hi Mr K,

Would it appease you if PA will let me change my handle to "Ava Tars?"

After you re-read the message board rules, go back and figure out the Musicians' Handicapping Method. It's really all about horses and the statistical virtue of using harmonic mean to develop pars and profiles. Check any text on Descriptive Statistics and you will soon understand the difference between arithmetic, geometric, and harmonic means, and learn why harmonic is preferred for most horseracing variables.

[ranchwest]

That would be "among", not "between".

[VetScratch]

Ranchwest,
That would be "among", not "between".

Sorry Charlie, but nowadays Starkist catches both kinds of tuna: those that taste good and those with good taste!

When difference is plural as in "differences among means" some publisher's style manuals still prefer "among." Otherwise, most grammarians published after Texas gained statehood have no preference among/between "among" and "between." Just among/between us, were you trying to be helpful, or were you just fishing?

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by VetScratch
After you re-read the message board rules, go back and figure out the Musicians' Handicapping Method. It's really all about horses and the statistical virtue of using harmonic mean to develop pars and profiles. Check any text on Descriptive Statistics and you will soon understand the difference between arithmetic, geometric, and harmonic means, and learn why harmonic is preferred for most horseracing variables.

Actually, most statistics book talk very little about what "is preferred for most horseracing variables". Harmonic mean is appropriate for calculating average velocity based on the velocities of more than one segment, although generally not needed because we know the total distance & time and can calculate it directly. Why would I want to use it otherwise?

[VetScratch]

Most texts describe these attributes for arithmetic mean (AM), geometric mean (GM), and harmonic mean (HM):

AM is easily skewed by value extremes within a partial population sample. Both GM and HM are less sensitive to extremes; therefore, if "most representative" is a desired attribute, GM or HM would be preferred.

Both GM and HM produce values equal to or less than AM, and the more AM is skewed high by value extremes, the more AM will exceed GM or HM.

Samples of pace or final speed ratings at any class/condition level usually contain values that skew AM high because of the way a few very talented young horses will romp through their conditions or because of risky but opportunistic big class drops by older horses (i.e., when a 15-25k horse is risked once at 5k/Claiming in order to become eligible for a series of Starter Allowance or Handicap events). Furthermore, almost any romping win by a wide margin may signify that the winner belonged with better company, and will often produce ratings that skew AM high. The potential for skewing AM is usually illustrated by examples in most texts.

This is why HM or GM produce "more representative" par or profile figures than AM.

The same concept applies to many other variables, but it is often necessary or desirable to convert raw data to a positive range of ratings before GM or HM is calculated.

Most texts suggest that HM is most appropriate for samples of comparative indices, prices, rates, velocities, speeds, etc. ("The canonical problem in which the harmonic mean is employed is that if a car drives 50 miles at 30 mph, 50 miles at 50 mph, and 50 miles at 60 mph, what is its average speed?"). GM is usually preferred when samples are taken periodically to measure rates of growth or decline over a span of time, and is widely used in statistics for forestry and agriculture.

For most horseracing data, I think HM and GM are definitely better than AM. Also note that HM will always be equal to or less than GM (usually by a small margin). I prefer HM, because the number of figures that exceed HM will be slightly greater than the number of figures that exceed GM (i.e., HM qualifies more figures as "in contention").

In my "Musicians Handicapping Method" the race screening tactic is clearly aimed at finding races that filled so easy that none of the starters will exhibit many (if any) of the obvious characteristics that make handicapping easy for the general public.

I have noticed that at least one handicapping package uses HM, and a few others use GM (at least according to what they say). Which ones? Sorry, but that reaches beyond theory and serves no purpose since we are all in the same pari-mutuel cauldron.

[JustRalph]

She is a sassy little thing......... I like it!

What a reply....... kudos Vet. You guys better watch out. She seems to be able to defend herself very well.

[Diamond K]

Game Theory

Wouldn't the use of harmonics reduce the figures you are working with to a condensed mean so that they would be 'ticks' apart? I am referring to 360 degree harmonics where, for instance, the 4th harmonic actually brings the 360 degree scale to 90 degrees.

This may be workable as patterns would develop here.

Diamond K

[gino]

have joe takach, barry meadow, and bob dylan ever been seen in the same room together?...also did jim castle ever sing backup with the BeeGees?...now i need to go over to the whatever happened thread and see about Sprint Rogers...