Workouts

[raybo]

I'm wondering if any others here convert workout times to velocities in fps.

If so, what is your relationship between breezing, handily, and from the gate?

How to you "normalize" these 3 types of workouts?

[MiJan]

Yes, I convert the time-distance to FPS. My use of the FPS for breezing and handily is strightforward. After all, who really knows what and who 'determines' the 'difference'.

For from the gate, I assume there is a 'reason' for the gate workout and penalize the FPS by a factor. That factor is as subjective (I suppose) as the definitions used for the workout comments.

I feel that the type (handily, breezing, from the gate) of workout and FPS are not as important as the fact that there 'was' a workout and the 'date' of the workout. And, to a lesser degree, the distance of the workout. To those, I give more weight than the FPS.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You would have to develop a track workout par to do that though too wouldn't you?Intriguing.

[raybo]

Well, the reason I ask about the "relationship" between the 3 types of workouts has to do, of course, with form.

With some horses and some trainers, not much can be gleaned from looking at workout types and times and distances. Asmussen is a prime example of this. Rarely do his horses work fast. Which tends to make me think that he uses other tools in determining when his horses are ready to race.

Other trainers definitely use workouts in this determination. And, under those circumstances, the handicapper is often able to see horses' form improve from one work to the next, in cases of multiple works between races, especially during layoff periods.

Layoffs are a problem for most handicappers, trying to guess how horses will perform afterwards. Sometimes, under the same trainer, one can see previous layoffs, within the last 10-12 races. Often, again, under the same trainer, you can see what a horse will do after a layoff. At other times, you have only workouts to use as a guide. Thus, my reason for starting this thread.

If one had a "general" relationship between the 3 types of works, one would have a "general" guide to ascertain current form, as displayed by progression in works.

IMO, breezing works are simply for exercise, while handily works are more for form improving, and gate works (while they can be used by some trainers as a "learning" session to improve their break) generally are simulations of real races, telling the trainer when it's time to stop workouts and start racing. Knowing the relationship between "b", "h", and "hg" could mean the difference in hitting a big one or not. Very few handicappers have much faith in wagering on horses coming off layoffs.

While the fact that a horse has worked since it's last race may be meaningful, regarding form, optimally, it would be advantageous to be able to "grade" each workout, normalizing each work type, in order to compare the works, regarding form improvement or decline.

[GaryG]

At one time there was a relationship beween "breezing", "handily", and the rarely used "driving". You never see driving works any more and some tracks (Fair Grounds is one) list virtually every work as breezing. The spacing and distance of the works is more important. There are some trainers who can win off a short layoff with no recent works. It helps when you know who they are.

[raybo]

At one time there was a relationship beween "breezing", "handily", and the rarely used "driving". You never see driving works any more and some tracks (Fair Grounds is one) list virtually every work as breezing. The spacing and distance of the works is more important. There are some trainers who can win off a short layoff with no recent works. It helps when you know who they are.

I agree.

However, I'm not looking for a method that is true under all circumstances. It doesn't take many "long shot" hits to improve one's bottom line.

And, in the case of my wagering type, superfectas, one can, literally, get rich in these cases.

[PhantomOnTour]

Rating workouts by FPS or whatever is a waste of time IMO.
You have no clue if he worked 4 wide, with a stablemate, what weight he carried, when and if the horse was urged during the workout, and on and on...

[skate]

good call Phan

[MiJan]

IMO, breezing works are simply for exercise, while handily works are more for form improving, and gate works (while they can be used by some trainers as a "learning" session to improve their break) generally are simulations of real races, telling the trainer when it's time to stop workouts and start racing. Knowing the relationship between "b", "h", and "hg" could mean the difference in hitting a big one or not. Very few handicappers have much faith in wagering on horses coming off layoffs.

I don't disagree with your descriptions of B, H, HG -- however, until there is a 'uniform' definition adopted by 'all' making these calls 'gospel' it will be difficult to hang a normalcy on them.

From running simulations against real results regarding workouts, the terms and times have no correlation that I can find.

That is not to say there is no correlation -- only that it has evaded me -- I would be extremely insterested in even a hint of such.

[46zilzal]

Go out there in the AM and see how much these exercise sessions have anything to do with racing other than exercise....Frequency is miles more important that speed. If a horse works early or after the break when the course is resurfaced, it completely changes the speed of the course.

Working in company (never reported these days) changes things as do training sessions to teach younger horses to get used to new equipment or to move inside older steady ones.

These are TRAINING sessions designed for exercise, finding out where possible injuries are cropping up, or teaching younger ones new lessons. Go OUT and see for yourself with exercise riders upwards of 150 pounds or many trainers close to or more than that weight wise, often working 4 or 5 OUT from the rail.

See how often an announced work in 4 is changed to 5 after PART of the workout is too fast or too slow. The clocker gets messages all the time to report it differently usually after the animal is not let go early.

WATCH them and this baloney about correlation to races will, with objective evidence, DISAPPEAR from this "grand standers" view of how important they are to a race other than for EXERCISE.

There are the rare ones where a work is MUCH faster but even that is taken with a grain of salt since there are NO DRUG TESTS AFTER WORKOUTS and different equipment is allowed in the AM not allowed on race day (severe bits and other equipment).

IF YOU DO NOT SEE A WORKOUT you have NO idea how it was accomplished.

HINT HINT: also the horse identifier misses horses or many an animal gets lost in the crowd and workouts are often mis-reported or not reported at all if there are too many out on the track.

[Tom]

So you use what you have. Workouts are part of some the most powerful plays in HTR. The only thing that counts is results.

[raybo]

So you use what you have. Workouts are part of some the most powerful plays in HTR. The only thing that counts is results.

Oh, didn't you know? His way is the only way.

How can someone be so negative towards any notion he doesn't introduce? Come to think of it, I think he's even negative in some of those. :lol:

[ranchwest]

It seems improper to me to state work ratings in FPS, so I just call it a rating. I give extra points for things such as distance and gate. My system is a 100+- point system because that just seems simplest to me.

Under 100 = unimpressive
100 = typical work for claimers
105 = nice work
113 = fast work

I think you'll need to play with it awhile to see what gives you confidence.

Just like speed ratings, I don't suggest there's much important about a few points difference. However, when I see a horse's speed ratings and work ratings move in the same direction I figure there's probably something important to note. You have to be careful, though, of differences that follow trainer changes.

[raybo]

Just to keep this thread on track, I'm not asking if anyone believes in studying workouts, regarding what I've mentioned. So, try to keep your posts germane to the question I posed. If I wanted an argument concerning whether or not workout types and times have any validity I would have asked that question. I know they have validity, for me, if you disagree then don't post in this thread.

[raybo]

It seems improper to me to state work ratings in FPS, so I just call it a rating. I give extra points for things such as distance and gate. My system is a 100+- point system because that just seems simplest to me.

Under 100 = unimpressive
100 = typical work for claimers
105 = nice work
113 = fast work

I think you'll need to play with it awhile to see what gives you confidence.

Just like speed ratings, I don't suggest there's much important about a few points difference. However, when I see a horse's speed ratings and work ratings move in the same direction I figure there's probably something important to note. You have to be careful, though, of differences that follow trainer changes.

Thanks, ranchwest, for your take on it. I used to do something similar, giving each workout a "speed" figure. I've moved away from "figures" and prefer working with times vs distances, ala Sartin.

[Dave Schwartz]

In our software we have a workout rating system. It is a rigid parallel time chart given to me over 20 years ago by someone who claimed it worked. In the early '90s I spent many hours trying to improve upon it without success.

I tried all kinds of track-to-track, variant and rating adjustments. Nothing improved it.

The most powerful use of it is the "best workout in last 45 days" angle. Haven't checked it in a long time but years ago FTS that ranked 1st and went off at 13-1 or higher were flat bet profitable.


Dave

[HUSKER55]

JMHO,

I don't consider workouts in any race except maidens and FTS.

I use a simple rating of <12=105, 12=100 and 12.8=95 and etc.

Longer distance workouts , for me, provide more confidence than shorter ones and the further up the list of horses that worked that day is also a plus.

If I think a race is tight and I am looking for an edge then sometimes I look at workouts.

One of the things I have been noticing is that a lot of jockeys even when they win seem to run the horse into the first turn. I have been ("sort of") keeping track and some of the horse some back and pay well. (>4:1).

You might do better to do some research on that,...or not.

Keep in mind I only bet about 4 or 5 races a day. Health problems have forced me to a hobbiest at best.

[JohnGalt1]

In our software we have a workout rating system. It is a rigid parallel time chart given to me over 20 years ago by someone who claimed it worked. In the early '90s I spent many hours trying to improve upon it without success.

I tried all kinds of track-to-track, variant and rating adjustments. Nothing improved it.

The most powerful use of it is the "best workout in last 45 days" angle. Haven't checked it in a long time but years ago FTS that ranked 1st and went off at 13-1 or higher were flat bet profitable.


Dave

William L. Scott was an advocate of using the fastest 5f work out in the past 30 days for maiden races if run by the betting favorite.

I have had good results even if the best is not run by the favorite.

I prefer at least 2 ticks faster but prefer 3/5ths. I may also subtract 1 second if breezing, depending on the track.

[bisket]

I'm wondering if any others here convert workout times to velocities in fps.

If so, what is your relationship between breezing, handily, and from the gate?

How to you "normalize" these 3 types of workouts?
the best way to do it in my opinion is to only look at works as far as how fast the time is against others at the same track and distance. if its near the top its a work for improvement of form. if its mid to to bottom its maintenance. this will take the subjectiveness out as far as handily or breezing. it will also take into account how fast the track was playing. its a very subjective type of thing though. you also have to know whats good for claimers versus allowance versus stakes quality. i use the 12 second furlong as a gauge also. faster than 12 is generally improving form above 12 maintenance. although you have to take that into consideration with the horses class level. as far as off the bench i use workout pattern and the trainers winning pctg. off the bench. i use drf formulator pps

[plainolebill]

Nothing to do with fps - I read an essay by Joe Colville some years ago where he listed pars for workouts in Socal. the angle was fastest overall work for the day regardless of distance (I don't think 3F was included).

If only one or two horses worked at a certain distance, 7f for instance, one could have fastest work of the day without even getting a bullet.