Beyer: Ziadie's presence a new low for Maryland

[Horseplayersbet.com]

"One statistic in particular suggests that Ziadie, 41, is either a cheater or an amazing horseman. Over the past five years, when Ziadie has claimed horses from other trainers, those acquisitions have won 47 percent of the time in their first start for the new barn. It is a mind-boggling number. Ziadie improves almost every horse he gets his hands on, and he improves upon the work of almost every other trainer."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/29/AR2010012903992.html

[Saratoga_Mike]

Beyer pulls no punches. Thanks for posting that.

[Relwob Owner]

Beyer pulls no punches. Thanks for posting that.


While everyone else seems to ignore the trainers (many of the "best" in the game) that have huge lists of violations but are never strongly punished, Beyer remains one of the few with the balls to comment on it and how it affects racing......

[Saratoga_Mike]

"When I claim a horse I usually don't run them back for three months. I clean them up, retrain them. These things don't happen overnight. And my horses last -- I've got plenty of 9- and 10-year-olds." -Kirk Ziadie

So he usually doesn't run them back for three months - gosh that's hard to fathom, but I'll take him at his word.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm not crying over CD troubles; I just wish Beyer and others known throughout racing would stump more for use of "decree" and for denying stalls.

[Ejmenz]

I'm not naive, he's doing something most likely that is not within the rules.

But I have real problems with race tracks determining due process is to arduous so they just exercise their rights to exclude trainers of their choice.

Fix the system, don't abandon it.

[letswastemoney]

I wasn't aware of this angle....I should put money on his horses lol

[Zman179]

Laurel right now is the bottom feeder of the Northeastern tracks (Suffolk is closed during the winter); the cripples that Penn National and Charles Town used to get now go to Laurel due to its lower purse structure. It's pretty safe to say, with the slots debacle and all, that Maryland racing is finished.

[jonnielu]

Andrew Beyer, Judge/Jury/Executioner/All around knower of all things except that horses aren't motorcycles.

"In race after race, he turned the art of handicapping into an exercise in guessing..."



Since when has the art/science of handicapping been anything else? More priceless babble from the inventor of track propulsion.

jdl

[Bobby Seller]

"The track, owned by Churchill Downs Inc., had a reason for not charging him with anything. If it accused Ziadie of a specific offense, the case could drag through racing's legal system for years."

Nonsense :ThmbDown:

Why should an exclusion by decree, and a separate, officially unrelated investigation be mutually exclusive??

[Trotman]

IMO I'm all for tracks enforcing their property rights and police who they allow to race,it's not perfect but it's a start.
I also think any trainer with a positive should race horses with a probationary license and run out of a 72 hour retention barn with supervised exercise just like a prison.
Some may say how unfair to the horse which is true,but for the trainers that have been charged with multiple positives this might be just right for the horse first time in a long time running clean.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'm not naive, he's doing something most likely that is not within the rules.

But I have real problems with race tracks determining due process is to arduous so they just exercise their rights to exclude trainers of their choice.

Fix the system, don't abandon it.

He had 13 medication violations on his record between 2004 and 2009, according to the Beyer article. The Miami papers also carried an article on Mr. Ziadie when he was ejected from Calder, containing similar numbers. Therefore, I think it is established that Mr. Ziadie has a pattern of medication violations. So one day Calder management decided, "you know what we've had enough of this guy (and his 13 medication violations) and we're kicking him out." He had a chance to appeal everyone of those medication violations, correct? There's no lack of due process here. To argue otherwise, you're arguing 13 medication violations just don't merit track management taking action.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

He had 13 medication violations on his record between 2004 and 2009, according to the Beyer article. The Miami papers also carried an article on Mr. Ziadie when he was ejected from Calder, containing similar numbers. Therefore, I think it is established that Mr. Ziadie has a pattern of medication violations. So one day Calder management decided, "you know what we've had enough of this guy (and his 13 medication violations) and we're kicking him out." He had a chance to appeal everyone of those medication violations, correct? There's no lack of due process here. To argue otherwise, you're arguing 13 medication violations just don't merit track management taking action.
Here are the violations: http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/ziadie-blames-drug-violations-on-chaos/

[Saratoga_Mike]

Thanks for that link. I remember seeing that in the Paulick report when it was published. Here's a good one.

Trainer Kirk Ziadie, DOb 8/22/68, having waived his right to a hearing, is fined the sum of five hundred ($500.00) dollars for entering the horse “STEELIX”, which was on the Vets List at Saratoga, necessistating a scratch from the eighth race at Delaware Park on Sunday, July 27, 2008. Refer to D.T.R.C Rules 3.4; and 10.8.1.2. Fine to be paid within 48 hours. Ruling 70-2008

I'm sure this was a mere oversight.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Thanks for that link. I remember seeing that in the Paulick report when it was published. Here's a good one.

Trainer Kirk Ziadie, DOb 8/22/68, having waived his right to a hearing, is fined the sum of five hundred ($500.00) dollars for entering the horse “STEELIX”, which was on the Vets List at Saratoga, necessistating a scratch from the eighth race at Delaware Park on Sunday, July 27, 2008. Refer to D.T.R.C Rules 3.4; and 10.8.1.2. Fine to be paid within 48 hours. Ruling 70-2008

I'm sure this was a mere oversight.
Not sure if you are being sarcastic. I've seen a few trainers enter horses in other jurisdictions hoping to have the entry get by. Usually happens with low level claimers.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Not sure if you are being sarcastic. I've seen a few trainers enter horses in other jurisdictions hoping to have the entry get by. Usually happens with low level claimers.

Sorry, that was indeed sarcasm. When you're a trainer, you know when you have a horse on the vet's list. If you don't, you probably shouldn't be a trainer.

[bushwick]

Ran at Del on 7-7-08. I dont see how he got on the vet list at Sar. He never shows a race there in his life. Unless they took him there after the Del. race the time frame seems kind of close. This horse was claimed 8-15-08 at Lrl. I am curious about this one.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Ran at Del on 7-7-08. I dont see how he got on the vet list at Sar. He never shows a race there in his life. Unless they took him there after the Del. race the time frame seems kind of close. This horse was claimed 8-15-08 at Lrl. I am curious about this one.

Great question, but I'm assuming if there were nothing to this matter, Mr. Ziadie would have appealed it and had it turned over.

[Grits]

"The track, owned by Churchill Downs Inc., had a reason for not charging him with anything. If it accused Ziadie of a specific offense, the case could drag through racing's legal system for years."

Yes, and most probably due to the reason, they made a helluva mistake when they blindly followed Tampa's actions where Terry Houghton, who filed suit, was not guilty of anything at good ol' sharpely run Tampa, yet was, and still, remains not allowed to ride at Arlington or other CDI tracks.

Houghton, who, as Paulick has said, "I hope owns them (Arlington and CDI) before all is over."

Indeed, Tampa always gets things right! You bet.

Due process? . . . . this was the biggest incident of bafoonery to come to racing in the last decade involving allegations lodged towards jockeys or trainers. Where's Terry now? Still in the hinterlands, after having won how many riding titles? A career ruined.

Give Berube and Tampa Bay Downs the time of day due to their "investigative work" and due process? I don't think so. Wouldn't give them a dime of my wagering dollars.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/38893/hearing-sheds-light-on-trpb-investigation-jockey-bans

Excerpt: from 2007 article

During the Illinois hearing, the TRPB was unable to produce material evidence that expressly implicates Houghton in the fixing of races. Though Houghton voluntarily submitted to a polygraph test that he made available to the TRPB and the FBI, neither organization has made use of that material.
According to TRPB president Frank Fabian, no cell phone records have been secured to connect Houghton with anyone who wagered on the races in question, nor has there been an investigation into Houghton’s bank records to search for unusual deposits.

“I have no information that (Houghton) received money for (holding back) a horse,” Fabian said.

“Do you have any information that he was paid any money to not do the best on a horse?” asked Art Engelland, Houghton’s attorney.

“I do not have that information, no,” Fabian said.

The TRPB also went against the opinion of the Michigan Racing Commission and stewards who reviewed the films of the races in question and found no suspicious activities on Houghton’s part, according to the transcript of the hearing. (It was initially reported here that it was the Minnesota Racing Commission, which was incorrect.)

“The fact that Churchill Downs chose to move against Terry is a slap in the face of every racing commissioner in the country,” Engelland told The Blood-Horse. “Protecting the integrity of racing is the state commission’s job. A racetrack should never move on guesswork. In this TRPB investigation, no one ever talked to the trainers of any horses, never talked to the vets or grooms, never looked at the PPs to see if a race was out of line on a Beyer (speed figure) basis...they’re going on pure speculation and supposition.”



http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/indictment-valdes-threw-races-bribed-other-jockeys/

Excerpt: from 2009 column

Former jockey Ricardo A. Valdes, one of seven riders banned from Tampa Bay Downs in December 2006, was indicted Wednesday along with two Michigan businessmen on 19 federal counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to influence sporting contests by bribery, and unlawful use of a facility in interstate commerce—all in connection with a series of alleged race fixing incidents at Tampa Bay Downs in Florida, Delaware Park in Delaware and Great Lakes Downs in Michigan, from December 2005-December 2006.

The other jockeys banned by Tampa Bay Downs in December 2006 were Terry Houghton, Joseph Judice, Derek Bell, Jorge Bracho, Luis Castillo and Jose Delgado. Of that group, only Houghton and Bell rode in any of the races cited in the indictment. Bell finished seventh in the Jan. 29 race on Greatest Creation, who showed early speed at 8-1 odds. Houghton finished third Jan. 31 on Camilles Castle, a 6-1 shot who “chased the leaders but failed to respond in the drive,” according to the chart.
Bell told the Thoroughbred Times (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2007/January/31/Banned-jockey-questioned-about-race-at-Tampa.aspx) in January 2007 he was questioned by the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau about the Jan. 29, 2006, race in question but denied any wrongdoing.

None of the other jockeys banned by Tampa Bay was named in the indictment. The Tampa Bay ban on all seven jockeys still stands.

Peter Berube, the Tampa Bay Downs vice president and general manager, declined to comment on the indictment, which provided no specific details about alleged race fixing at Delaware Park or Great Lakes Downs.

[illinoisbred]

That was a travesty of justice in regards to Houghton,Derek Bell, and several others.

[Bobby Seller]

Here are the violations: http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/ziadie-blames-drug-violations-on-chaos/
"oxyphenbutazone holds the title for the highest possible score for a single play under American tournament Scrabble rules, scoring 1,780 points across three triple-word-score squares, joining seven tiles to eight already played tiles."

[Saratoga_Mike]

That was a travesty of justice in regards to Houghton,Derek Bell, and several others.

But you aren't relating this back to Kirk Ziadie, are you?

[illinoisbred]

No

[Kimsus]

He has 1 horse entered today Sir Allahad in the 5th listed at 8-1ML, wonder if that will drop to 3-1 at post time.

[Grits]

But you aren't relating this back to Kirk Ziadie, are you?

You should've asked me instead of putting Illinois on the spot. He didn't post the comments. And no, it doesn't relate to Zaide, but the post does allow us to be reminded, the stellar run management of TAMPA doesn't always get it right. Just ask Houghton and others. (We tend, though, to have short memories; this long having been forgotten.)

Zaide is a problem, just as Gill is a problem. But, as DeanT noted, it seems Canada is doing a much better job of their problems than WE ARE!!!

[Saratoga_Mike]

You should've asked me instead of putting Illinois on the spot. He didn't post the comments. And no, it doesn't relate to Zaide, but the post does allow us to be reminded, the stellar run management of TAMPA doesn't always get it right. Just ask Houghton and others. (We tend, though, to have short memories; this long having been forgotten.)

Zaide is problem, just as Gill is a problem. But, as DeanT noted, it seems Canada is doing a much better job of their problems than WE ARE!!!

I wasn't trying to put him on the spot, just asking him a question. Sorry if I misdirected the question.

If you want to talk about the Tampa case, you might want to start a different thread. I'm sure mgt at Tampa isn't perfect, but they sure do seem to put up good results.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

You should've asked me instead of putting Illinois on the spot. He didn't post the comments. And no, it doesn't relate to Zaide, but the post does allow us to be reminded, the stellar run management of TAMPA doesn't always get it right. Just ask Houghton and others. (We tend, though, to have short memories; this long having been forgotten.)

Zaide is a problem, just as Gill is a problem. But, as DeanT noted, it seems Canada is doing a much better job of their problems than WE ARE!!!
Canada does have super trainers too, like Terry Jordan. He is just as remarkable a trainer as Ziadie is.

[Grits]

There's no need for another thread at all, this is a case of, once again, Andy Beyer speaks out to everyone involved on the problems of this sport. Zaidie happens to be today's topical ointment, for what's becoming a diagnosis of Stage Four cancer, and rightfully so.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I don't care if there's another thread, but the owner of the forum doesn't like things to stray too far off-topic.

[Grits]

I don't care if there's another thread, but the owner of the forum doesn't like things to stray too far off-topic.

Thanks, I'll keep that in mind.

[PhantomOnTour]

How do these bozozs(Hall and Pogue) ignore Ziadies huge list of violations?
Maryland deserves what it gets. However, this is a chance for them to do the Philly thing and deny him entries or take away his stalls.

If no national ruling body exists to address these things then the tracks themselves must do whats right...they are the police in this matter (or at least the jury).

Time to do something right.

[illinoisbred]

I think that this Zaidie episode and the Gill fiasco point to one thing. We need a National Racing Commissioner and uniform rules applied to all jurisdictions.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Ran at Del on 7-7-08. I dont see how he got on the vet list at Sar. He never shows a race there in his life. Unless they took him there after the Del. race the time frame seems kind of close. This horse was claimed 8-15-08 at Lrl. I am curious about this one.

He certainly didn't need to run at SAR to make the list there, but I know you didn't outwardly imply that - the best question is whether or not he was entered at SAR - if he wasn't, then it does become a bit curious as it would seem reasonably tough to make the list, though not impossible, without at least an entry.

[Saratoga_Mike]

On July 23, 2008, Steelix was in race 10 at Saratoga and scratched out of the race by his trainer, according to the Equibase chart:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=07/23/2008&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB

[johnhannibalsmith]

What if the horse was entered at Saratoga, scratched at the gate by the state vet, then put on the vet's list? Wouldn't that explain the situation?

That was one of the two likeliest scenarios that I was suggesting - the other being a simple vet scratch that required either a work (sore/lame/et al) or simply waiting some time period (sick/tied-up/bled/et al) before being taken off the list.

[Saratoga_Mike]

That was one of the two likeliest scenarios that I was suggesting - the other being a simple vet scratch that required either a work (sore/lame/et al) or simply waiting some time period (sick/tied-up/bled/et al) before being taken off the list.

I was apparently wrong about that scenario, as I subsequently found out the horse in question was scr'd out of a Saratoga race by the trainer, at least that's what the Equibase chart indicates (see my prior post for the link).

In any case, even outside of that instance, Mr. Ziadie seems to have a pattern of violations.

[JustRalph]

"In race after race, he turned the art of handicapping into an exercise in guessing..."

Since when has the art/science of handicapping been anything else? More priceless babble from the inventor of track propulsion.

jdl

Wow! Are you sure you don't work for MSNBC.........?

You cut that quote off to fit your comment, reminds me of some of the editing work at MSNBC............ you are a hoot............

We get it...........you hate Beyer and you don't pay taxes....... :lol:

[jonnielu]

Wow! Are you sure you don't work for MSNBC.........?

You cut that quote off to fit your comment, reminds me of some of the editing work at MSNBC............ you are a hoot............

We get it...........you hate Beyer and you don't pay taxes....... :lol:


What are you talking about? Anyone that bets horses has got to love the fact that Beyer is out there everyday trying to convince everyone that horse races should figure by simple arithmetic, and the only reason it doesn't is because of the dope, tides, bias, artificial surface, and incompetent jockeys. With Beyerism, no one really loses, so they will always come back to bet that fast horse one more time.

This One's For Phil is dancing around the GP winners circle again because that supertrainer Dutrow pump him full of enough dope to win a 2nd Sunshine Millions sprint, and I look forward to the Beyer article tomorrow to set the racing world back on its axis.

I wish 10 million people would start betting the Beyer, right now for the 9th. If I win by some fluke, I won't owe any income taxes on it.

jdl

[Saratoga_Mike]

What are you talking about? Anyone that bets horses has got to love the fact that Beyer is out there everyday trying to convince everyone that horse races should figure by simple arithmetic, and the only reason it doesn't is because of the dope, tides, bias, artificial surface, and incompetent jockeys. With Beyerism, no one really loses, so they will always come back to bet that fast horse one more time.

This One's For Phil is dancing around the GP winners circle again because that supertrainer Dutrow pump him full of enough dope to win a 2nd Sunshine Millions sprint, and I look forward to the Beyer article tomorrow to set the racing world back on its axis.

I wish 10 million people would start betting the Beyer, right now for the 9th. If I win by some fluke, I won't owe any income taxes on it.

jdl

Andy Beyer's never said that, but don't let the facts get in the way of an otherwise fine post.

[Bobby Seller]

BEYER is addressing an important issue here, and it goes deeper than his philosophy of handicapping.

[illinoisbred]

He seems to be the only one willing to go after the so-called "supertrainers". In fact, didn't he coin that word?

[jonnielu]

He seems to be the only one willing to go after the so-called "supertrainers". In fact, didn't he coin that word?

When will he go after one with anything beside inuendo? Unsubstantiated accusations do nothing for the sport except send another thousand to the poker table.

jdl

[Saratoga_Mike]

Thirteen medication violations between 2004 and 2009 - yeah Beyer's making stuff up again to fit his speed-figure agenda.

[toetoe]

"... the whole regulatory system broke down ..."

I can put you in touch with some Nazis --- guaranteed 100% regulation, no judgement or insight required.




"... Maryland racing has eroded so badly, maybe it doesn't matter ..."

How about the erosion of racing reportage ? God help me, but I think it still matters.

[DeanT]

Thirteen medication violations between 2004 and 2009 - yeah Beyer's making stuff up again to fit his speed-figure agenda.
You gave me my laugh for the day :)

What are the odds Beyer is betting the 11 in the last at GP right now? After last year's Wolfson article he has to have a few bucks on this one I would think, speed figs be damned.

[illinoisbred]

When will he go after one with anything beside inuendo? Unsubstantiated accusations do nothing for the sport except send another thousand to the poker table.

jdl
Not so much innuendo, its just at this point adjusted speed figures are not quite the proof accepted by many in positions of authority. Beyer isn't the only public figure/number maker to notice these kind of things,Jerry Brown of Thoro-graph has been very involved too. In fact anyone who makes figures will spot the trainers that get big moveups. I make them for just the Illinois circuit and we have a couple here that moveup,moveup really big and often.

[jonnielu]

BEYER is addressing an important issue here, and it goes deeper than his philosophy of handicapping.

No, it doesn't. Last year he accused R. Dutrow of doping when This One's For Phil won the same race he won again this afternoon. Last year the proof was the low Beyer that TOFP came into the race with.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Thirteen medication violations between 2004 and 2009 - yeah Beyer's making stuff up again to fit his speed-figure agenda.

What are the specific violations?
Why aren't all medication violations published for all trainers all of the time?

jdl

[Horseplayersbet.com]

No, it doesn't. Last year he accused R. Dutrow of doping when This One's For Phil won the same race he won again this afternoon. Last year the proof was the low Beyer that TOFP came into the race with.

jdl
Are you saying they are using different meds on This One's For Phil than they used last year in the same race? I wouldn't have changed it.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

What are the specific violations?
Why aren't all medication violations published for all trainers all of the time?

jdl
How many different ways are there to train a horse so that one trainer can be 40% and others are in the 10-15% zone? What do you think these 40% trainers do differently?

[Saratoga_Mike]

What are the specific violations?
Why aren't all medication violations published for all trainers all of the time?

jdl

To be clear, I was referencing Kirk Ziadie and his 13 medication violations, not Rick Dutrow. Please click on the following link and you can review his violations for yourself (the link was previously provided by another poster):

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/ziadie-blames-drug-violations-on-chaos/

We agree on something: medication violations should be published. I was just thinking the same thing earlier today. It seems like only racing authorities and journalists have access to the violation lists.

[jonnielu]

Not so much innuendo, its just at this point adjusted speed figures are not quite the proof accepted by many in positions of authority. Beyer isn't the only public figure/number maker to notice these kind of things,Jerry Brown of Thoro-graph has been very involved too. In fact anyone who makes figures will spot the trainers that get big moveups. I make them for just the Illinois circuit and we have a couple here that moveup,moveup really big and often.

Why don't you just start fining trainers when their horses don't run some kind of minimum time for the distance. Couldn't possibly be that the figures aren't reflective of how horses run... could it?

jdl

[jonnielu]

To be clear, I was referencing Kirk Ziadie and his 13 medication violations, not Rick Dutrow. Please click on the following link and you can review his violations for yourself (the link was previously provided by another poster):

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/ziadie-blames-drug-violations-on-chaos/

We agree on something: medication violations should be published. I was just thinking the same thing earlier today. It seems like only racing authorities and journalists have access to the violation lists.

Maybe Mr. Beyer can tell you why it isn't published like everyday news.

jdl

[Saratoga_Mike]

No, it doesn't. Last year he accused R. Dutrow of doping when This One's For Phil won the same race he won again this afternoon. Last year the proof was the low Beyer that TOFP came into the race with.

jdl

Again, Beyer did NOT say that. In essence, he said it strained one's credulity to believe that a trainer could improve a horse so radically in such a short time frame. The article was published in the Washington Post last January.

So the horse wins back the same race this yr - and that proves exactly what? If he won back this yr with a different trainer, it might be interesting, but he didn't.

[Dahoss9698]

No, it doesn't. Last year he accused R. Dutrow of doping when This One's For Phil won the same race he won again this afternoon. Last year the proof was the low Beyer that TOFP came into the race with.

jdl

It wasn't the same race.

[illinoisbred]

Why don't you just start fining trainers when their horses don't run some kind of minimum time for the distance. Couldn't possibly be that the figures aren't reflective of how horses run... could it?

jdl
I'm not saying or infering that. What I am saying is when trainers claim 5-6yr.+ horses from other competent trainers who did get very good races from them speed figure-wise and proceed to get 3-4 races 6-10 lengths better than these animals ran at 3 or 4 yrs. of age suspicion is warranted.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Maybe Mr. Beyer can tell you why it isn't published like everyday news.

jdl

I'll direct the question to Steve Crist on his blog. I don't know how to contact Andy Beyer, outside of first-class mail. Anyway, Andy isn't a hard-news journalist. He's a columnist - therefore, his writing is peppered with opinions.

[cj]

What I find sad, and the low point, is that officials in Maryland had no idea who this guy was or what his history had led to at Calder. It just shows agains how FUBAR horse racing is right now.

[jonnielu]

How many different ways are there to train a horse so that one trainer can be 40% and others are in the 10-15% zone? What do you think these 40% trainers do differently?

Most people do things the same way they have always been done. Not much of a way to learn anything, but millions of people like it that way. A city was discovered recently where all of the homes had in-door toilets with sewer lines that took the s**t out of town. The place was 5000 years old. Seems it got buried suddenly by a volcanoe. The secret of plumbing died with it.

For about 4800 years, men were content to s**t in the woods, or s**t in their hats and throw it out the window, if they happened to be in a french palace, they would s**t in the stairwells. Never once pondering for long that there might be a better way. People are funny critters.

Like all other trades, I imagine that some horse trainers are better then others, and if one knows something that the other ones don't, it probably doesn't get much publicity. Few people will work their trade completely backwards just to see if there is something to learn, most people prefer to assume that they already know it all.

But, I am sure that if any trainer believes that a horse is nothing but a dumb animal, they won't spend much time trying to teach it something.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I'm not saying or infering that. What I am saying is when trainers claim 5-6yr.+ horses from other competent trainers who did get very good races from them speed figure-wise and proceed to get 3-4 races 6-10 lengths better than these animals ran at 3 or 4 yrs. of age suspicion is warranted.

So then, it just isn't possible for a horse to run a very good race and come in 4th? The trainers number one job is to keep the horse in training. The #2 job is to find the horses ability, and hide it from everyone else. The #3 job is to win about 1 out of 5 races without losing your horse.

If any trainer can do those things to a high degree of competence, nobody making speed figures will ever know what any of his/her horses should or should not be able to do.

jdl

[illinoisbred]

So then, it just isn't possible for a horse to run a very good race and come in 4th? The trainers number one job is to keep the horse in training. The #2 job is to find the horses ability, and hide it from everyone else. The #3 job is to win about 1 out of 5 races without losing your horse.

If any trainer can do those things to a high degree of competence, nobody making speed figures will ever know what any of his/her horses should or should not be able to do.

jdl
Granted. But to take your style of logic and twist it a bit,I don't see that many Einsteins or Edisons training race horses. These type of supreme training feats should be a rarity. A lot of these guys couldn't screw in a light bulb without a manual ,let alone invent one.

[Saratoga_Mike]

So then, it just isn't possible for a horse to run a very good race and come in 4th? The trainers number one job is to keep the horse in training. The #2 job is to find the horses ability, and hide it from everyone else. The #3 job is to win about 1 out of 5 races without losing your horse.

If any trainer can do those things to a high degree of competence, nobody making speed figures will ever know what any of his/her horses should or should not be able to do.

jdl

1) Keep the horse in training - makes sense.

2) Find the horse's ability, and hide it from everyone - why would you hide it from everyone? For betting purposes/maybe to place claimers, I assume.

3) Win 1 out of 5 races - that seems reasonable. What doesn't seem reasonable is winning at an almost 50% clip off the claim.

If your whole point is Beyer speed figures are less useful today, given they're published in the DRF, than when Andy Beyer had them all to himself (and a few others like Mark Cramer), I agree with you. But if your overall point is Beyer speed figures have no predictive value, you're simply mistaken.

[PaceAdvantage]

But if your overall point is Beyer speed figures have no predictive value, you're simply mistaken.All one has to do is look at the small fortune one would have won using Beyers in a rudimentary fashion for the 2009 Breeders' Cup. And on synthetics no less, a surface the Beyer-bashers REALLY LOVE to bash Beyer on...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=63621 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=63621)

[Saratoga_Mike]

As you've pointed out before, it appears Beyer speed figures can be a very powerful tool on synthetic tracks, too, as evidenced by this past yr's Breeders' Cup. But nothing satisfies the Beyer-detractors. Why do they have so much resentment for Beyer? His writing is punchy and interesting (Exhibit A: the Ziadie piece). Why the big problem with him? I can only conclude his detractors are jealous, but I guess his detractors should speak for themselves.

[Tuffmug]

Given the tone of Beyer's article, I expect next week he will call for all trainers with medication violations and all suspicious super trainers to be GELDED! without the benefit of due process or pain killers. :lol: :lol: :lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't see why all the Beyer bashing either.Aside from the the figures that changed the landscape of the game and inspired new figure makers to take it many steps beyond and in different productive directions,the guy is a winning horseplayer respected by most all of the heavyweights.Forget his figures.The guy is a winner.And in recent years he has addressed a lot of what is wrong in this game.Plus he is a good read.What's not to like or at least respect??

[Tuffmug]

Hey Andy,

Maybe Ziadie is just an expert at claiming horses from trainers who have been consistently "stiffing" their horses to pop their odds up for the big score!!! Why don't you write about these scum bags. This is a better explanation for extraordinary form reversals than miniscule drug positives.

[jonnielu]

1) Keep the horse in training - makes sense.

2) Find the horse's ability, and hide it from everyone - why would you hide it from everyone? For betting purposes/maybe to place claimers, I assume.

3) Win 1 out of 5 races - that seems reasonable. What doesn't seem reasonable is winning at an almost 50% clip off the claim.

If your whole point is Beyer speed figures are less useful today, given they're published in the DRF, than when Andy Beyer had them all to himself (and a few others like Mark Cramer), I agree with you. But if your overall point is Beyer speed figures have no predictive value, you're simply mistaken.

If you don't care about losing the horse, winning off the claim is much more do-able. There is little difference between a 5k and a 25k claimer in today's game. While you are slicing up seconds, 2/5's could be miniscule and it could be huge depending on where you lose it or gain it. 6.5f is a different world from 6f, so is a 2 turn mile from 1 turn.

Show me where speed figures ever had more predictive value then the ML.

jdl

[Grits]

Some of you guys kill me. Every time Beyer opens his mouth, and 99% of the time its for the benefit and interest of horseplayers, you always resort back to "he's useless, his figures are of no consequence to the game. Who needs him or them?"

Yet, I'd bet my house and the land its sitting on--that neither one of you could come within a snowball's chance in hell of duplicating his net worth. Since he's so useless and all.

What a hoot.

[Jackal]

Steve Asmussen has had way more positives in various jurisdictions. He wins multiple Eclipse Awards for his cheating.

Mr Beyer wrote:
He already has started four horses at Laurel and won with three of them. One of those horses, Black Gabriel, had made his career debut at Philadelphia Park in early January under the care of Behrens, and lost by 27 lengths. On Thursday, now officially in the care of Ziadie, Black Gabriel was bet down to odds of 5 to 2 and improved sharply to win by nearly four lengths. It was a scenario familiar to anyone who has followed Ziadie at Tampa Bay and Calder. In race after race, he turned the art of handicapping into an exercise in guessing how much the Ziadie horses were going to move up over their published form.

Maybe Mr Ziadie is an expert horseman who does bend the rules just like everyone else. The quickest way to get everyone on the backside of a track to hate you is to win a bunch of races. No medication can make a horse run faster than it is physically capable of running. All Mr Ziadie is doing is getting these horses to perform at their best. If Mr Ziadie is banned from the backside all the current top 25 trainers should be banned. They all have more positive tests and rule infractions than Mr Ziadie.

[jonnielu]

As you've pointed out before, it appears Beyer speed figures can be a very powerful tool on synthetic tracks, too, as evidenced by this past yr's Breeders' Cup. But nothing satisfies the Beyer-detractors. Why do they have so much resentment for Beyer? His writing is punchy and interesting (Exhibit A: the Ziadie piece). Why the big problem with him? I can only conclude his detractors are jealous, but I guess his detractors should speak for themselves.

Let's reckon it out together, horse racing used to be the #1 spectator sport in the country. What was the last year that this was so?

jdl

[Saratoga_Mike]

If you don't care about losing the horse, winning off the claim is much more do-able. There is little difference between a 5k and a 25k claimer in today's game. While you are slicing up seconds, 2/5's could be miniscule and it could be huge depending on where you lose it or gain it. 6.5f is a different world from 6f, so is a 2 turn mile from 1 turn.

Show me where speed figures ever had more predictive value then the ML.

jdl

For awhile, I actually thought you were a Beyer-basher. I now see you weren't serious, and you're just making your posts more absurd to prove it.

[proximity]

Hey Andy,

Maybe Ziadie is just an expert at claiming horses from trainers who have been consistently "stiffing" their horses to pop their odds up for the big score!!! Why don't you write about these scum bags. This is a better explanation for extraordinary form reversals than miniscule drug positives.

if these horses are so obviously fit then why is it taking mr ziade three months (his words) to run them back??

[proximity]

The quickest way to get everyone on the backside of a track to hate you is to win a bunch of races.....

not necessarily. maryland should start an hbpa affiliate and they could elect mr ziade president!!

[Relwob Owner]

Some of you guys kill me. Every time Beyer opens his mouth, and 99% of the time its for the benefit and interest of horseplayers, you always resort back to "he's useless, his figures are of no consequence to the game. Who needs him or them?"

Yet, I'd bet my house and the land its sitting on--that neither one of you could come within a snowball's chance in hell of duplicating his net worth. Since he's so useless and all.

What a hoot.



:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[jonnielu]

For awhile, I actually thought you were a Beyer-basher. I now see you weren't serious, and you're just making your posts more absurd to prove it.

Hey... just give me one year in the past 40 where speed figures were more predictive then the ML.

jdl

[Relwob Owner]

Hey... just give me one year in the past 40 where speed figures were more predictive then the ML.

jdl


If you take a deep breath and count to 10, you may realize just how unrealistic your request is and that it is just plain antagonistic.....if you dont see this, then I suggest you find one year in the past 40 where the morning line was more predictive than speed figures. It is 10PM now and I will be waiting for some results from you soon...........................

[illinoisbred]

Nothing is more subjective,even arbitrary than the morning line. At some tracks its not worth a damn.

[Relwob Owner]

Nothing is more subjective,even arbitrary than the morning line. At some tracks its not worth a damn.


I agree and that is what makes any comparison of speed figures to the morning line a pointless comparison

[Tuffmug]

Nothing is more subjective,even arbitrary than the morning line. At some tracks its not worth a damn.


At BC, bet return on all ML favorites beat all but one DRF handicapper (Beyer included). It even beat them if you gave DRF guys all 3 of their picks per race to get it right. Pretty good for something "subjective, even arbitrary".

[proximity]

At BC, bet return on all ML favorites beat all but one DFR handicapper (Beyer included). It even beat them if you gave DFR guys all 3 of their picks to get it right. Pretty good for something "subjective, even arbitrary".

did it beat the top beyer figure though??

sometimes mr beyer can get in his own way..;)

[Jackal]

On a given day chimps throwing darts can predict more winners than anyone.

At certain tracks under certain conditions Beyer speed figures are very accurate. But determining what track and conditions speed figures will be accurate is very difficult.

In the end, the chimps might win more often than Beyer speed figures. There are far to many variables in a given race for any speed or pace rating to produce a winning ROI over several years.

[illinoisbred]

Yeah,but I don't trust my chimp with my Twin Spires account.

[jonnielu]

If you take a deep breath and count to 10, you may realize just how unrealistic your request is and that it is just plain antagonistic.....if you dont see this, then I suggest you find one year in the past 40 where the morning line was more predictive than speed figures. It is 10PM now and I will be waiting for some results from you soon...........................

I see nothing unrealistic about it, the top 4 ML winning 70% of races is well established going back to the 70's, at least. The ML favorite is 26%, and the post time favorite approaches 33%. Have Beyers ever done better?

jdl

[jonnielu]

Nothing is more subjective,even arbitrary than the morning line. At some tracks its not worth a damn.

What a great spot for examples.

jdl

[Relwob Owner]

I see nothing unrealistic about it, the top 4 ML winning 70% of races is well established going back to the 70's, at least. The ML favorite is 26%, and the post time favorite approaches 33%. Have Beyers ever done better?

jdl


Please site your sources

[illinoisbred]

What a great spot for examples.

jdl
I suppose I could check that out. I have the last 3 years of programs from 1 of the 2 tracks I play. Its had the same ml maker for several years. I don't want to say too much because I personally like him and feel he does all he can to promote racing at his venue. His judgement when it comes to the ml is clouded by the poor stock he owns,the other miserable stock in his trainers barn, and other horses owned by family and friends.

[turfnsport]

We agree on something: medication violations should be published. I was just thinking the same thing earlier today. It seems like only racing authorities and journalists have access to the violation lists.

You can find many of them here:
https://www.arci-members.com/publicpages/publicrulings.asp

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's reckon it out together, horse racing used to be the #1 spectator sport in the country. What was the last year that this was so?

jdlYou're operating under the old paradigm, when racing was the only game in town.

Eyeballs at the track don't count as much as $$$$ in the pools, pouring in from across the country thanks to simulcasting.

[jonnielu]

You're operating under the old paradigm, when racing was the only game in town.

Eyeballs at the track don't count as much as $$$$ in the pools, pouring in from across the country thanks to simulcasting.

By either unit of measure, in old paradigm, or new... is horse racing up or down across the last 40 years? What has happened during the last 10 years?

jdl

[jonnielu]

Please site your sources

It has been tracked by myself and my family since 1980. The source of that idea was the 5000 race study that Larry Voegle based his book on, and that Beyer mentioned in picking winners.

jdl

[Bobby Seller]

Andy Beyer is a hall of famer and still one of the most recognized and respected voices in the game today.

[Trotman]

I'll second that Bobby Seller. Andrew Beyer took what was before him and came up with a methodology for speed in horse racing, way ahead of his time and the publishing of his book Picking Winners I would guess 95% of all of us read it and was amazed. For anyone to bash Andy you need your head read.

[illinoisbred]

Speed Figures aside, who else in the racing mainstream media stands up for the bettors?

[castaway01]

In the dictionary next to "Ignore List", there's a picture of jonnielu.

[Greyfox]

Speed Figures aside, who else in the racing mainstream media stands up for the bettors?

:ThmbUp: Andy is as entertaining as they come when it comes to any topic related to racing. He's the best National columnist on Horse Racing in North America and does stand up for the bettors.

[Bobby Seller]

did a negative thread just turn into a positive thread??

signs of the apocalypse ?? :eek: ;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I see nothing unrealistic about it, the top 4 ML winning 70% of races is well established going back to the 70's, at least. The ML favorite is 26%, and the post time favorite approaches 33%. Have Beyers ever done better?

jdl

Top 4 ML choices?Serious?

OK let's level the playing field and use the top 4 BSF in a race.

Top 4 ML horses vs Top 4 BSF horses?

Who wins?

[jonnielu]

Top 4 ML choices?Serious?

OK let's level the playing field and use the top 4 BSF in a race.

Top 4 ML horses vs Top 4 BSF horses?

Who wins?

Sure, GP today:

1st R - W=4th ML
2nd R - W=1st ML
3rd R - W= 3rd ML
4th R - W= 4th ML

I imagine you could slap on the Beyers.

jdl

[Greyfox]

At many tracks the morning line maker probably uses Beyers or similar figures when he/she starts making the odds.

[jonnielu]

At many tracks the morning line maker probably uses Beyers or similar figures when he/she starts making the odds.

That might explain those tracks where the ML is a little out of kilter with the past half century.

jdl

[Relwob Owner]

It has been tracked by myself and my family since 1980. The source of that idea was the 5000 race study that Larry Voegle based his book on, and that Beyer mentioned in picking winners.

jdl


Wow. I would love to see the results, broken down by each year, and separated by each track. It will be interesting to see how it has changed over the years. Since you and your family has tracked the performances of morning lines for the last 30 years, I am assuming you have these results available? Looking forward to seeing them.

[Relwob Owner]

I see nothing unrealistic about it, the top 4 ML winning 70% of races is well established going back to the 70's, at least. The ML favorite is 26%, and the post time favorite approaches 33%. Have Beyers ever done better?

jdl



I find it interesting that you base the success of a handicapper on how many straight winners his/her picks have and use the performance of the morning line picking winners as a gauge... .most astute handicappers that I know make it clear that simply betting to win is near impossible and that the exotics are the way to go. That being said, your attempt to judge Beyer based on a morning line comparison seems to be quite limited and outdated as well.

[turfnsport]

That might explain those tracks where the ML is a little out of kilter with the past half century.

jdl

Jon,

Your continual bashing of Beyer, one of the most influential handicappers and writers in the history of the industry, proves what an absolute ignorant troll you are.

You seem so out of touch with everything about horse racing, and by a pole.

And now you are the first I have ever used the ignore button on.

I'd rather get a prostate exam than read another one of your posts.

[Robert Fischer]

Yikes

[jonnielu]

I find it interesting that you base the success of a handicapper on how many straight winners his/her picks have and use the performance of the morning line picking winners as a gauge... .most astute handicappers that I know make it clear that simply betting to win is near impossible and that the exotics are the way to go. That being said, your attempt to judge Beyer based on a morning line comparison seems to be quite limited and outdated as well.

The first part of your post might make some sense if I had ever said anything about what I base the success of a handicapper on. I've never said anyone was unsuccessful.

For the second part of your post, someone said that Beyers were very predictive. I offered a reasonable comparison to the ML as a measure of very predictive. Then you want to run to 9 out of 10 astute handicappers have said that win betting is near impossible anyway. My simple question is, how do both stand in the same place at the same time.

Beyers are very predictive, win betting is near impossible anyway. Which is it? Do you know either, or are you just reciting what you heard?

You think the comparison is limited and outdated, what is that based on?

Let's take a look at the Forward Gal from today. A simple 7f G2 on one of them good old fashioned genuine dirt tracks. A race where form, and Beyers should weigh in well, with all available predictiveness.

12 Bickersons Bravo Joe 116 21.00 10.40 6.40

This horse was 4th ML at 8 - 1, I'm assuming not that high on the Beyers because there didn't seem to be many takers.

4 Joanie's Catch Lopez Paco 116 30.20 13.00

At 20-1 ML, I'm going to guess here also that this horse wasn't real high on the Beyer list, although I have to wonder why not with a better performance in the Oldhat then what the winner held on for. Must have been a case of "track propulsion". Neither of these two were amongst the 7 horses coming into this race off of a win. I'm wondering if either of them broke into the top 4 of the predictive Beyers.

13 Liam's Dream Rose Jeremy 117 8.00

Maybe this one has a decent Beyer, after all, the Beyers were designed to take up for differences in racetracks, so that the user could be on all the right shippers. I'd think that after 35 years of sharpening, they'd be doing that pretty good by now.

Let me know if Beyer landed a top 4 on the board, cause if so, we could say that the Beyers are just as predictive as the ML for the winner of this race. Even though, predicting a winner is near impossible, these days. Of course, the ML is not supposed to be predictive of the winner, it is supposed to be predictive of the public take on the race. It is a tool intended for use by the fan that does not want to handicap. You know, those two generations of people that have been chased off to the poker tables, and scratch-off stand.

The ML is for them, so that they can not handicap, and still play the game with a degree of intelligence between the ML and track handicapper(s).

It is not to predict the winner, the ML is a reflection of the past performances, 2-1 has positive PP's, 30-1 is fairly dismal. The ML enables the non-handicapper to glimpse at the PP's, since that is all he/she wants.

The ML guy made the #6 the ML favorite because it won the BCJUV a few months back, and bettors love that sort of thing. If the Beyers are in order, it is a definite go. But, let's look at whether the ML designation is predictive. Especially, since we already know that the Beyer is "very" predictive.

The ML favorite wins 26% of the races, and 2 favorites have already won today in the 6th and 8th. If that is not enough, the 2nd ML choice in the 2nd got pounded down to the PT favorite, so that means that the handicappers have already been right three times today. Since 9 out of 10 astute handicappers agree that it is almost impossible to pick winners these days, we non-handicappers can rest assured that the favorites are done. This ML was very predictive.

Of course the second ML choice has an 18% shot. And the ML guy makes #7 that 2nd choice. It goes off at $4.30-1, pretty close. #11 is 3rd - 15% - at 6-1, and goes off at $3.70 - 1. #12 is 4th ML at 8-1 and wins at $9.50-1.

The consistency of the ML points out that the game is not quite as up and down as the publishers of past performances would have you believe.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Jon,

Your continual bashing of Beyer, one of the most influential handicappers and writers in the history of the industry, proves what an absolute ignorant troll you are.

You seem so out of touch with everything about horse racing, and by a pole.

And now you are the first I have ever used the ignore button on.

I'd rather get a prostate exam than read another one of your posts.

Well... I've tried to perservere through many serious lambastings and name calling sessions on this board, but this one really hurts. I'm sure glad that the Mon-Tue break is coming up because I can see that I'll be spending many hours in pensive reflection considering all of my sins.

Even if I could somehow get over you telling me that I'm ignorant, I fear that you putting me on ignore may just do me in completely. I don't know if I could live knowing that you won't read my posts anymore. Especially after I've tried so hard to impress you and win your favor.

I'm probably not going to get 2 seconds sleep tonight trying to figure out how to get you back in my fan club.

P.S. On the prostrate exam, is it really because of me? Or is it because your guy gives you a shoulder massage too.

jdl

[Robert Fischer]

Back to the thread topic, Jonielu will be OK in Maryland so long as he can reduce the positive test results...

[Saratoga_Mike]

So JohnnyLou is using the morning line odds to make his selections, or so it appears, and he wants to question Beyer? Too funny.

Two things JohnnyLou: 1) Did you ever stop to think the morning line odds are heavily influenced by the Beyers? Perish the thought. I'm sure your family work has incorporated the interconnectivity into your 30-yr study. No doubt. 2) Beyers are predictive, but who the hell said just bet the horse who produced the top last-out Beyer, as you continually imply? Certainly not Andy Beyer.

[Saratoga_Mike]

JL,

I just checked out your profile and clicked on the link to your website. I now understand your agenda. Why not be honest and forthright in your posts and say, "I think I have a better approach to Andy Beyer and I'm trying to sell it to people?"

[cj]

JL,

I just checked out your profile and clicked on the link to your website. I now understand your agenda. Why not be honest and forthright in your posts and say, "I think I have a better approach to Andy Beyer and I'm trying to sell it to people?"

He was formerly a paid advertiser here. I think the sad episode with Patrick brought that to a halt.

[Saratoga_Mike]

He was formerly a paid advertiser here. I think the sad episode with Patrick brought that to a halt.

Oh, I wasn't aware of that, but he's still trying to hawk his product. I think he should just say that. From reading his posts, it appears there's professional jealousy, too, but maybe I'm way off base.

[cj]

Oh, I wasn't aware of that, but he's still trying to hawk his product. I think he should just say that. From reading his posts, it appears there's professional jealousy, too, but maybe I'm way off base.

I don't think you are off base at all.

[Relwob Owner]

The first part of your post might make some sense if I had ever said anything about what I base the success of a handicapper on. I've never said anyone was unsuccessful.

For the second part of your post, someone said that Beyers were very predictive. I offered a reasonable comparison to the ML as a measure of very predictive. Then you want to run to 9 out of 10 astute handicappers have said that win betting is near impossible anyway. My simple question is, how do both stand in the same place at the same time.

Beyers are very predictive, win betting is near impossible anyway. Which is it? Do you know either, or are you just reciting what you heard?

You think the comparison is limited and outdated, what is that based on?

Let's take a look at the Forward Gal from today. A simple 7f G2 on one of them good old fashioned genuine dirt tracks. A race where form, and Beyers should weigh in well, with all available predictiveness.

12 Bickersons Bravo Joe 116 21.00 10.40 6.40

This horse was 4th ML at 8 - 1, I'm assuming not that high on the Beyers because there didn't seem to be many takers.

4 Joanie's Catch Lopez Paco 116 30.20 13.00

At 20-1 ML, I'm going to guess here also that this horse wasn't real high on the Beyer list, although I have to wonder why not with a better performance in the Oldhat then what the winner held on for. Must have been a case of "track propulsion". Neither of these two were amongst the 7 horses coming into this race off of a win. I'm wondering if either of them broke into the top 4 of the predictive Beyers.

13 Liam's Dream Rose Jeremy 117 8.00

Maybe this one has a decent Beyer, after all, the Beyers were designed to take up for differences in racetracks, so that the user could be on all the right shippers. I'd think that after 35 years of sharpening, they'd be doing that pretty good by now.

Let me know if Beyer landed a top 4 on the board, cause if so, we could say that the Beyers are just as predictive as the ML for the winner of this race. Even though, predicting a winner is near impossible, these days. Of course, the ML is not supposed to be predictive of the winner, it is supposed to be predictive of the public take on the race. It is a tool intended for use by the fan that does not want to handicap. You know, those two generations of people that have been chased off to the poker tables, and scratch-off stand.

The ML is for them, so that they can not handicap, and still play the game with a degree of intelligence between the ML and track handicapper(s).

It is not to predict the winner, the ML is a reflection of the past performances, 2-1 has positive PP's, 30-1 is fairly dismal. The ML enables the non-handicapper to glimpse at the PP's, since that is all he/she wants.

The ML guy made the #6 the ML favorite because it won the BCJUV a few months back, and bettors love that sort of thing. If the Beyers are in order, it is a definite go. But, let's look at whether the ML designation is predictive. Especially, since we already know that the Beyer is "very" predictive.

The ML favorite wins 26% of the races, and 2 favorites have already won today in the 6th and 8th. If that is not enough, the 2nd ML choice in the 2nd got pounded down to the PT favorite, so that means that the handicappers have already been right three times today. Since 9 out of 10 astute handicappers agree that it is almost impossible to pick winners these days, we non-handicappers can rest assured that the favorites are done. This ML was very predictive.

Of course the second ML choice has an 18% shot. And the ML guy makes #7 that 2nd choice. It goes off at $4.30-1, pretty close. #11 is 3rd - 15% - at 6-1, and goes off at $3.70 - 1. #12 is 4th ML at 8-1 and wins at $9.50-1.

The consistency of the ML points out that the game is not quite as up and down as the publishers of past performances would have you believe.

jdl


Wow....that is a lot of words..let me respond to one of your questions contained in that diatribe...I said "outdated" because you are comparing Beyers to Morning Line wins as a measure of the worthiness of Beyers...this is outdated because just betting to win and judging success based on that is something that could have been done years ago before exotics....I had expected you to catch on to that inference but that was clearly a mistake.

I had requested the track by track results of the morning line success that you claimed you and your family had.....when should I expect it?

[Saratoga_Mike]

I had requested the track by track results of the morning line success that you claimed you and your family had.....when should I expect it?

It's HIGHLY proprietary, I'm sure, handed down from generation to generation.

[Relwob Owner]

It's HIGHLY proprietary, I'm sure, handed down from generation to generation.

Well, I requested it a few days ago and still nothing back....time passes slowly but I still hold out hope that I will receive this golden nugget of historical information

[Saratoga_Mike]

Well, I requested it a few days ago and still nothing back....time passes slowly but I still hold out hope that I will receive this golden nugget of historical information

We all hope and pray your request is answered.

[Trotman]

I have to agree with CJ, SM I think your on the right track. Maybe that historical bit of info is in the mail RO :D

[jonnielu]

Wow....that is a lot of words..let me respond to one of your questions contained in that diatribe...I said "outdated" because you are comparing Beyers to Morning Line wins as a measure of the worthiness of Beyers...this is outdated because just betting to win and judging success based on that is something that could have been done years ago before exotics....I had expected you to catch on to that inference but that was clearly a mistake.

I had requested the track by track results of the morning line success that you claimed you and your family had.....when should I expect it?

No, this is what I said:


For the second part of your post, someone said that Beyers were very predictive. I offered a reasonable comparison to the ML as a measure of very predictive.


I also said that I don't believe that Beyers are as predictive as the ML is, and has been. I was trying to establish some baseline for the concept of "predictive" before we forged ahead with a rousing and rip-snorting discussion of what is, and is not "very predictive".

The reason that I bring the ML into it, is to illustrate with something known to all, and known to be consistent, perhaps you aren't aware of its consistency, I am. It always surprises me to find that these things are widely deemed too elementary for consideration, because even the most complex of things are composed of their various elements. Usually the pieces and parts are quite simple.

But, my contempt for Beyer has nothing to do with his numbers. I think that it is great that 97% believe that they are "very" predictive. And, maybe they are, I never see a horse with bad PP's and a high Beyer, but they still win races. 97% is the magic number.

My pal TurfNSport is right "Beyer is the most influential horse racing writer in all of N. America", which seems to have lead to "Horse racing... the dying sport".

jdl

[jonnielu]

Well, I requested it a few days ago and still nothing back....time passes slowly but I still hold out hope that I will receive this golden nugget of historical information

I guess facts just aren't your forte'. If you want to do some research on the ML, Keeneland has got a nice library for those that don't wish to do the day to day work.

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

Why have we allowed Jonnielu to take another thread off topic that contains the name Beyer? This thread isn't about the merits of Beyer speed figures.

It's about the article Beyer wrote on Ziadie. You don't need Beyer speed figures to notice Ziadie and his move ups.

Either get the thread back on track, or I close another one...

[turfnsport]

He was formerly a paid advertiser here. I think the sad episode with Patrick brought that to a halt.

The Patrick episode showed him for what he is.

[Warren Henry]

It has been tracked by myself and my family since 1980. The source of that idea was the 5000 race study that Larry Voegle based his book on, and that Beyer mentioned in picking winners.

jdl

Which Larry Voegle book? The one where he used Fred Davis numbers without giving credit for the origin?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I guess facts just aren't your forte'. If you want to do some research on the ML, Keeneland has got a nice library for those that don't wish to do the day to day work.

jdl


Why rely on a morning line?

If you are a solid handicapper your personal oddsline should exceed any predictability even an above average morning line might produce.And wouldn't that instill you with a greater faith in your bets?

That your method is predicated on someone else's ability seems as inept as the people you condemn for slavishly betting Beyer's figures.

In the short run of 5 days(a typical betting week) the top 3 contenders on my oddslines have won 70% of the time.It hasn't made me rich and I'm not ready to declare myself the world's greatest handicapper,much less denounce an icon who has changed the game enormously and is always looking out for the bettor and the health of the game in his articles.

It just seems excessive JL.

[jonnielu]

Why rely on a morning line?

If you are a solid handicapper your personal oddsline should exceed any predictability even an above average morning line might produce.And wouldn't that instill you with a greater faith in your bets?

That your method is predicated on someone else's ability seems as inept as the people you condemn for slavishly betting Beyer's figures.

In the short run of 5 days(a typical betting week) the top 3 contenders on my oddslines have won 70% of the time.It hasn't made me rich and I'm not ready to declare myself the world's greatest handicapper,much less denounce an icon who has changed the game enormously and is always looking out for the bettor and the health of the game in his articles.

It just seems excessive JL.

I'm not a handicapper, my method is not predicated on anyone elses ability, although it could be said that it was instigated by someone elses ability.

So, you make a line on your criteria as to which are likely to win today. And, that line is found to be consistent and "predictive". Very good. I would imagine that your oddsline might be just as "predictive" as anyone elses for the most part, and you might find that it is just as "predictive" as BSR's.

If that were found to be the case, would you be comfortable accusing trainers of cheating based on your line? Or, do you think that might be a bit presumptive and arrogant on your part? Like saying there is nothing more for you to learn, so obviously, no one else could learn something new either.

Sure, it is safe to assume that there are horsemen out there that cheat, just the same as with bankers, bakers, and candlestick makers. That doesn't mean that they all cheat, and it doesn't mean that everyone that can improve a horse cheated in doing so.

Just the same as every winner can not just continue winning endlessly, every loser might not be a permanent loser.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm not a handicapper, my method is not predicated on anyone elses ability, although it could be said that it was instigated by someone elses ability.

So, you make a line on your criteria as to which are likely to win today. And, that line is found to be consistent and "predictive". Very good. I would imagine that your oddsline might be just as "predictive" as anyone elses for the most part, and you might find that it is just as "predictive" as BSR's.

If that were found to be the case, would you be comfortable accusing trainers of cheating based on your line? Or, do you think that might be a bit presumptive and arrogant on your part? Like saying there is nothing more for you to learn, so obviously, no one else could learn something new either.

Sure, it is safe to assume that there are horsemen out there that cheat, just the same as with bankers, bakers, and candlestick makers. That doesn't mean that they all cheat, and it doesn't mean that everyone that can improve a horse cheated in doing so.

Just the same as every winner can not just continue winning endlessly, every loser might not be a permanent loser.

That's hardly what Beyer is doing at all and he wasn't the first to bring up Ziadie's name.

And that you aren't a handicapper says a lot.At the very least stop telling people they are fools for using the racing form or any other product since you don't even handicap.You wouldn't know what they're talking about anyway!!

Nice immortal line to finish off your post.Are you going to have that etched on your tombstone??!!!:lol:

[GameTheory]

Despite the thread drift, and despite Jonnielu's abrasiveness, isn't there a nugget of truth here? I mean, Beyer DOES have a habit of accusing trainers of cheating with the main thrust of his argument being something along the lines of "these horses don't run to form as predicted by my figures, therefore something's up".

Doesn't anyone else find that troubling? I do. Am I just a "Beyer basher" for saying so?

[cj]

Despite the thread drift, and despite Jonnielu's abrasiveness, isn't there a nugget of truth here? I mean, Beyer DOES have a habit of accusing trainers of cheating with the main thrust of his argument being something along the lines of "these horses don't run to form as predicted by my figures, therefore something's up".

Doesn't anyone else find that troubling? I do. Am I just a "Beyer basher" for saying so?

He is saying the horses improve dramatically no matter the quality of trainer from which the horse was claimed. Sure, he probably uses his figures as a reference, but I don't think you need figures to see what happens with these horses.

This was the main point:

One statistic in particular suggests that Ziadie, 41, is either a cheater or an amazing horseman. Over the past five years, when Ziadie has claimed horses from other trainers, those acquisitions have won 47 percent of the time in their first start for the new barn. It is a mind-boggling number. Ziadie improves almost every horse he gets his hands on, and he improves upon the work of almost every other trainer.

In fact, nowhere in the entire article will you find any of the following words: speed, figure, Beyer.

[DeanT]

Didnt racing hire/partner with Jerry Brown of thorograph to help build evidence that some trainers are blowing figs out of the water inexplicably, in the likes which have never been seen before, as a guise to put them on watchlists?

What Beyer is doing is nothing new. He does not have to use his own figs to make his point, he can use virtually any metric he wants. It is as plain as day.

[DeanT]

ps: It is also nothing new in other avenues. If a bond trader has a hit rate of X% which is never seen before he can and has been convicted of fraud with circumstantial statistical evidence. It's like the head of the national lottery living on Pine Street in New York. His relative wins a prize one week, then the next his neighbor, then the next his dentist two streets over. He will be charged and he is probably going to jail.

[GameTheory]

That's even more vague. Does winning mean improvement? Where the horse is placed also has to be considered. The thing that bugs me most is that he seems to want to deny the whole concept of improvement, as if a trainer has no right to improve a horse when of course that is the whole point of claiming a horse in the first place -- you take those you think you can improve (or that are simply good deals that you can run at a higher level in their current form). I never hear from him any inkling that there could be an alternative explanation, namely that:

A) The vast majority of trainers are terrible horseman AND total idiots when it comes to placing their horses. And many are actually not out to win races, but simply to hang on to their stock. This is especially true in the claiming ranks. He talks about super-trainers but never mentions that their competition are super-bunglers.

B) There are 1001 ways to improve a horse. Fixing a horse's teeth will produce vast improvements overnight, for instance, and yet is ignored by most trainers. Has Beyer inspected these animals? How can he divine which were due to drugs and which were due to fixed teeth, or whatever? Someone asked "how many ways are there to train a horse"? More than you might think.

C) The whole point of claiming an animal is to improve it, and get it into the winner's circle ASAP. For trainers with skill at claiming, the horses they claim are practically guaranteed improvement because they only claim those where they have identified the problem beforehand and already have a plan in place before the claim occurs. Beyer seems to think these supertrainers claim at random and give them all a magic elixir that fixes any problem. As if that would work.

Now then, drugs are a big problem in the sport, and your point about the Maryland people being totally clueless about this guy is well-taken. BUT it still bugs me that Beyer feels is ok to sully the name of who ever he likes filling his article not just with facts (the actual drug positives for trainer X -- that's fair game), but with a lot of innuendo as if drugs or a miracle are the only possible explanations for a form reversal.

[cj]

How is he supposed to define improvement? The guy raised the majority of the horses in class and won. We all know horses can be improved a lot of ways, but this guy did it off the best trainers on the circuit and continues to do it wherever he goes.

Nobody says there are logical explanations sometimes, but come on, 47%?

[DeanT]

You tend to get diamonds in the rough in the claiming game which improve. Everyone who claims wants one and dreams of one. Sometimes you go years without one, even though you are an excellent horseman, and an excellent handicapper of horseflesh.

Some guys seem to get one every three weeks. With those folks I doubt it has anything to do with doing their teeth.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

You tend to get diamonds in the rough in the claiming game which improve. Everyone who claims wants one and dreams of one. Sometimes you go years without one, even though you are an excellent horseman, and an excellent handicapper of horseflesh.

Some guys seem to get one every three weeks. With those folks I doubt it has anything to do with doing their teeth.
Maybe they trim a bit from the mane and tail too making the horse less wind resistant.

[classhandicapper]

I accept the premise that Ziadi is improving his horses by more than is typical of other trainers (and more consistently) , but I also have a bit of a problem with using speed figures alone to demonstrate it. I felt the same way about This One For Phil last year.

1. We've all seen huge discrepancies in figures between various figure makers for the same horse and race.

2. Some handicappers think bias, pace, race setup, track condition and other factors can impact final time and contribute to a very fast figure.

3. Just as there are varying levels of ability in other occupations, there are varying levels of ability among trainers and some have greater resources available to work on their horses.

So basically there are accuracy and other subjective considerations that IMO should be part of the evaluation. When you look at it that way, IMO it's often much more difficult to build a case against the trainer than just looking at the speed figures.

The most obvious defense is the one Ziadi used himself. He's not moving horses up after a week in his care like some of the juice trainers of the past. He's often moving them up after they have been freshened for a couple of months, treated for their problems, and retrained etc... (or so he says)

Do I believe him?

NO!

The combination of the evidence I have seen plus all the drug positives is enough for me. But that's different than trying to prove it using speed figures alone.

[cj]

I accept the premise that Ziadi is improving his horses by more than is typical of other trainers (and more consistently) , but I also have a bit of a problem with using speed figures alone to demonstrate it. I felt the same way about This One For Phil last year.



Did you read the article? Speed figures are never mentioned. The words never appear either alone or in tandem.

[classhandicapper]

Did you read the article? Speed figures are never mentioned. The words never appear either alone or in tandem.

Yes I read it. But in light of his previous article on This Ones for Phil and his reputation as a speed handicapper, I think the assumption is that he is measuring improvement based on figures alone is not far fetched. I concede I could easily be jumping to conclusions though.;)

[jonnielu]

That's even more vague. Does winning mean improvement? Where the horse is placed also has to be considered. The thing that bugs me most is that he seems to want to deny the whole concept of improvement, as if a trainer has no right to improve a horse when of course that is the whole point of claiming a horse in the first place -- you take those you think you can improve (or that are simply good deals that you can run at a higher level in their current form). I never hear from him any inkling that there could be an alternative explanation, namely that:

A) The vast majority of trainers are terrible horseman AND total idiots when it comes to placing their horses. And many are actually not out to win races, but simply to hang on to their stock. This is especially true in the claiming ranks. He talks about super-trainers but never mentions that their competition are super-bunglers.

B) There are 1001 ways to improve a horse. Fixing a horse's teeth will produce vast improvements overnight, for instance, and yet is ignored by most trainers. Has Beyer inspected these animals? How can he divine which were due to drugs and which were due to fixed teeth, or whatever? Someone asked "how many ways are there to train a horse"? More than you might think.

C) The whole point of claiming an animal is to improve it, and get it into the winner's circle ASAP. For trainers with skill at claiming, the horses they claim are practically guaranteed improvement because they only claim those where they have identified the problem beforehand and already have a plan in place before the claim occurs. Beyer seems to think these supertrainers claim at random and give them all a magic elixir that fixes any problem. As if that would work.

Now then, drugs are a big problem in the sport, and your point about the Maryland people being totally clueless about this guy is well-taken. BUT it still bugs me that Beyer feels is ok to sully the name of who ever he likes filling his article not just with facts (the actual drug positives for trainer X -- that's fair game), but with a lot of innuendo as if drugs or a miracle are the only possible explanations for a form reversal.

Not to mention that form reversals are an everyday occurrence, with many trainers being involved. Every day we see the evidence present itself. In the ability to run a route of ground, there simply is not a huge amount of difference in race horses.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Did you read the article? Speed figures are never mentioned. The words never appear either alone or in tandem.

Maybe he has learned something since the TOFP episode of last year.

jdl

[Tom]

Yes I read it. But in light of his previous article on This Ones for Phil and his reputation as a speed handicapper, I think the assumption is that he is measuring improvement based on figures alone is not far fetched. I concede I could easily be jumping to conclusions though.;)

Listen to hour 2 of Steve Byk today. Good discussions about both Gill and this guy. Satish Sana apparently had some horses with him and found out what he was using and took them away.

http://thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/images/stories/audio/020210b.mp3

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Listen to hour 2 of Steve Byk today. Good discussions about both Gill and this guy. Satish Sana apparently had some horses with him and found out what he was using and took them away.

http://thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/images/stories/audio/020210b.mp3
I wish he'd speak his mind more :lol:

But seriously, I don't like his game plan, because it isn't necessary to get rid of the smaller tracks or trainers, etc. if the pricing of the game changed.

He is another one who who wants to market horse racing how he wants horseplayers to think and want, not on how horseplayers actually think or what horseplayers actually want.

Yes, uniform drug rules are necessary. A czar is a great idea. But if you want the game to grow it will be all about attracting gamblers because the game has a chance to be beaten.

Under his plan, there are going to be a lot of cheap horses looking for a home, moreso than today.

Part of the biggest growth can happen with new owners who come in and make some money or wind up close to even....but the purse structure for low claimers have to be at least at a point where this can happen.

[Mineshaft]

Listen to hour 2 of Steve Byk today. Good discussions about both Gill and this guy. Satish Sana apparently had some horses with him and found out what he was using and took them away.

http://thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/images/stories/audio/020210b.mp3





What was he using?

[TejanoRun]

Did anyone notice that the medication results came in a few weeks ago for Sunshine Millions Day?

This One's for Phil, winner of the Sprint and mentioned previously on this thread, had an overage of bute, but since bute isn't one of the class penalties in florida, Dutrow was only fined. Thus he and his owners were allowed to keep the $110,000 winners purse. If bute had been a Category "C" penalty, the owner's purse would have been taken away.

Meanwhile Marty Wolfson did have a class V positive, which is also considered a Category "C" penalty. I'm not sure which of his five horses the violation applied to. If I recall, he finished the day with two firsts, two seconds and one out of the money. Since this would have been Wolfson's first violation for a Class V this year, according to Florida law, he should have been fined and the owner's purse taken away.

Ridiculously, the stewards gave Wolfson only a reprimand (!) instead of a fine. As a result, he shows no first offense, didn't have to pay anything, and received absolutely NO PENALTY FOR CHEATING.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Did anyone notice that the medication results came in a few weeks ago for Sunshine Millions Day?

This One's for Phil, winner of the Sprint and mentioned previously on this thread, had an overage of bute, but since bute isn't one of the class penalties in florida, Dutrow was only fined. Thus he and his owners were allowed to keep the $110,000 winners purse. If bute had been a Category "C" penalty, the owner's purse would have been taken away.

Meanwhile Marty Wolfson did have a class V positive, which is also considered a Category "C" penalty. I'm not sure which of his five horses the violation applied to. If I recall, he finished the day with two firsts, two seconds and one out of the money. Since this would have been Wolfson's first violation for a Class V this year, according to Florida law, he should have been fined and the owner's purse taken away.

Ridiculously, the stewards gave Wolfson only a reprimand (!) instead of a fine. As a result, he shows no first offense, didn't have to pay anything, and received absolutely NO PENALTY FOR CHEATING.

So no matter how high the level of bute found in the urine and/or blood, it would not disqualify the horse from the purse in FL?

[Mineshaft]

So no matter how high the level of bute found in the urine and/or blood, it would not disqualify the horse from the purse in FL?






it wouldnt disqualify the horse in Louisiana. Thats why trainers will take the fine if they get caught.

[affirmedny]

too much bute doesn't make a horse run faster

[cj]

too much bute doesn't make a horse run faster

It will make him run faster than he would without it if he is hurting.

[affirmedny]

It will make him run faster than he would without it if he is hurting.
It might make him run faster than running on no bute at all. But the difference between an acceptable level and an overage is probably no more than the difference of you taking 2 advil instead of one. I think calling this "cheating" is a reach.

[Saratoga_Mike]

It might make him run faster than running on no bute at all. But the difference between an acceptable level and an overage is probably no more than the difference of you taking 2 advil instead of one. I think calling this "cheating" is a reach.

Why? Bute has much stronger painkilling properties than Advil especially at high level dosages.

[46zilzal]

Bute causes erosive arteritis and all manner of gastrointestinal problems even when it us used within dosage guidelines...

[46zilzal]

Why? Bute has much stronger painkilling properties than Advil especially at high level dosages.
Where did you get that???......they both work via the same mechanism blocking an enzyme system as all non steroidal anti-inflammatories do. Pain reduction is secondary to diminishing swelling thus less traction on sensory nerve endings.

There is NO direct analgesic action like you get with the opiates.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-steroidal_anti-inflammatory_drug

[Saratoga_Mike]

Where did you get that???......they both work via the same mechanism blocking an enzyme system as all non steroidal anti-inflammatories do. Pain reduction is secondary to diminishing swelling thus less traction on sensory nerve endings.

There is NO direct analgesic action like you get with the opiates.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-steroidal_anti-inflammatory_drug

Well it's settled - I mean who can argue with wikepedia. :rolleyes:

[46zilzal]

Well it's settled - I mean who can argue with wikepedia.
handy references do not mean incorrect references............Bute was taken off the market for human consumption due to aplastic anemia.

Advil is just a brand new for Ibuprofen

[JustRalph]

Advil is just a brand new for Ibuprofen

Advil 7.65 a box.......... Generic Ibuprofen 4 bucks a box

never buy the "Advil" when a generic is sitting on the shelf next to it

[Saratoga_Mike]

How things turned out in 2010 for Kirk Ziadie...

2010 58 8 5 4 $110,010 (Maryland)
2009 273 70 57 42 $ 1,207,674 (Florida)
2008 433 100 70 64 $ 1,861,542 (Florida)

[DSB]

Apparently, Maryland's presence was a new low for Ziadie....

[JohnGalt1]

Is it time to seriously consider having a national commisioner and a board of directors to handle situations like these? And not affiliated in anyway with the feds, but established by our industry.

1.) Houghton/Bell should either be allowed to run at all tracks or none. They are either guilty or not. A nations commisioners/board would not let this go on for so long.

2.) Fines and punishments for trainer infractions should be standardized and pertain to all tracks. (If the commisoner/board feel Ziadie should be barred from a track, it should be all tracks until allowed to train again--at all tracks.)