What Tracks Favor Front Runners!

[monistee]

I'm looking for tracks that favor, or give front runners an equal shot. The tracks I'm betting on, like Santa Anita. In my opinion seem to favor closers.
Your opinions do mean a lot to me! Monistee

[Overlay]

I don't have current data to back me up, and the various types of artifical surfaces may have changed the equation. But past statistics that I've seen (such as from Quirin and Nunamaker) indicated that early speed was what Quirin referred to as a universal track bias. There were no tracks where come-from-behind horses had an actual advantage over those that got to the front quickly. It was just that some tracks put late-running horses at less of a disadvantage than others.

[Robert Goren]

Most dirt tracks favor front runners to some degree. If you look at some smaller tracks you can find real bias. It tough to pick a track out too far ahead because they change from year to year. If it gets too bad at a major track the tractors come out. At a small track, they some times will let this go on for a while especially near end of the meet. There no way around it, you just have to look at the charts or better yet the video. JMO

[46zilzal]

inner AQU, regular AQU, old Stampede, Philly, Penn National, Fort Erie, Pimlico at times, Tampa often as it varies, Oaklawn, Hastings in mid Summer and Fall.....Some days many of these courses are ripe for the stealing of the front end.

ALL tracks vary but when these are right they are amazing and this list is NOT exhaustive at all.

[so.cal.fan]

Hollywood Park much more than the others, because it's not really a synthetic surface anymore. Much more sand as the "cushion" material has all but broken down and disappearing.
I understand Santa Anita will be reverting back to turn at the end of this meet. Hopefully Del Mar will follow suit, as the synthetic is very costly to keep up, doesn't decrease injuries as was expected and most handicappers doen't like it, many Cal Breds don't like it.

Anyway, most modern dirt tracks always favor speed at most distances.

[Robert Goren]

many Cal Breds don't like it.

There in lies the rub.

[Kimsus]

All the dirt tracks. Though I do believe Churchill Downs is pretty fair.

[BombsAway Bob]

The last two racing nights @ Delta Downs, Speed has been king!
Naturally speed-friendly with its' short stretch run, this week Delta really has been a front-runners paradise. Once rains come & the track has work done on it closers might have a better shot, but for now, stick to Speed capping...
Matt Carothers would be cleaning up!

[woodtoo]

The last two racing nights @ Delta Downs, Speed has been king!
Naturally speed-friendly with its' short stretch run, this week Delta really has been a front-runners paradise. Once rains come & the track has work done on it closers might have a better shot, but for now, stick to Speed capping...
Matt Carothers would be cleaning up!

Agree 100% find the speed at Delta=cashing tickets

[Hanover1]

Depends what day you show up imo. However I believe Monmouth has a rep for holding speed well on a consistent level.
The purists amongst handicappers know, as well as the trainers do, that even a speed favoring track can be off on any given day, and Im not just alluding to mud. Many factors affect them such as humidity, dewpoints, and track maintenance on any given day........

[BillW]

I'm looking for tracks that favor, or give front runners an equal shot. The tracks I'm betting on, like Santa Anita. In my opinion seem to favor closers.
Your opinions do mean a lot to me! Monistee

In the last year 21% of races were won wire to wire at SA on the main track with an average field size of 8.16. With a neutral bias one would expect a wire to wire rate of 1 in 8.16 or 12.25%. I think the guy that said that early speed was the universal bias has something! :)

[monistee]

Thanks everyone! That's great information. I know every race is different.
It all depends, on the type of horse you bet on. And if there's other speed to go with it. I just like to know, when I'm betting a horse who has speed. And should get the lead alone. Is on a track that is not tiring all the time.

Have a Good One! Monistee :ThmbUp:

[BillW]

The last two racing nights @ Delta Downs, Speed has been king!
Naturally speed-friendly with its' short stretch run, this week Delta really has been a front-runners paradise. Once rains come & the track has work done on it closers might have a better shot, but for now, stick to Speed capping...
Matt Carothers would be cleaning up!

BTW @ DED wire to wire winners sit at 23% for the last year with a 9.08 avg. field size.

[46zilzal]

I often see horses run wire to wire late. War Emblem's last Derby prep was a good example, Go the lead, no challenges and crept along and only picked it up after the 6 furlongs to run a % median in the mid 66 range. LATE

[Moyers Pond]

They change day to day, but any dirt track gives an edge to horses with speed. Sometimes Aqueduct is essentially a conveyor belt, but not always.

When the Big A becomes a conveyor belt though you get nothing but front runners winning at short prices because everyone bets anything with speed and they usually get the lead and never look back.

[Dahoss9698]

All the dirt tracks. Though I do believe Churchill Downs is pretty fair.

Interesting....all, except the one you think doesn't. Just out of curiousity how closely do you follow NY racing?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Only at certain times and places does a track favor speed ridiculously.Does any horseplayer NOT appreciate the virtues of any creature that runs?That the most talented of runners put themselves in a position to win by running fast,staying out of traffic trouble,and not losing ground.

These blanket statements about dirt all being speed favoring is an illusion and false.Talent puts itself in a position to win races.

[46zilzal]

Only at certain times and places does a track favor speed ridiculously.Does any horseplayer NOT appreciate the virtues of any creature that runs?That the most talented of runners put themselves in a position to win by running fast,staying out of traffic trouble,and not losing ground.

These blanket statements about dirt all being speed favoring is an illusion and false.Talent puts itself in a position to win races.

For many years I thought so too as I had no OBJECTIVE way to evaluate that and the majority of tracks listed as have huge biases were all in the East. Once I began playing them, it was remarkable how one could pick up on huge bias shifts for a few days at a time and cash huge wagers on horses that, on other days of the same track, would have stopped like a Chinese watch (Japanese ones are great),

I have years of energy profiles that show that early wins far more than it should on any dirt race track and that big time closers are disadvantaged all the time.

It is true it happens and there are numbers that allow one to follow the shifts. dramatically where weather becomes a big factor.

After ANY deluge at Fort Erie, the first horse out of the gate usually hangs around EVERY Race. That has changed a little with resurfacing,,,,but not much

[Kimsus]

Interesting....all, except the one you think doesn't. Just out of curiousity how closely do you follow NY racing?

I was being facetious, but we all know dirt tracks generally reward speed don't we? I watch enough of NY racing though not religiously, and from what I have seen it's sporadic, some days speed is all the rage, other days it's a mixed bag of results...

[Dahoss9698]

I was being facetious, but we all know dirt tracks generally reward speed don't we? I watch enough of NY racing though not religiously, and from what I have seen it's sporadic, some days speed is all the rage, other days it's a mixed bag of results...

Would it be fair to say synthetics generally reward closers?

[Kimsus]

Would it be fair to say synthetics generally reward closers?

If you are asking do closers fare a better chance on synthetics, I think we all know the answer to that is yes. The question should be which surface would be most fair for both. One that doesn't reward inferior speed winning nor does it allow a 'hanging closer' to beat a legitate speed horse capable of carrying his/her speed. A track like Keeneland for years was so heavily speed biased that the winner of the Bluegrass stakes couldn't be taken seriously especially if it were done in front running fashion, in some cases horses that finished farther back in either the Bluegrass or Lexington have gone onto winning the derby.

[Dahoss9698]

If you are asking do closers fare a better chance on synthetics, I think we all know the answer to that is yes. The question should be which surface would be most fair for both. One that doesn't reward inferior speed winning nor does it allow a 'hanging closer' to beat a legitate speed horse capable of carrying his/her speed. A track like Keeneland for years was so heavily speed biased that the winner of the Bluegrass stakes couldn't be taken seriously especially if it were done in front running fashion, in some cases horses that finished farther back in either the Bluegrass or Lexington have gone onto winning the derby.

You get no arguement about old Keeneland from me. Although what is often misunderstood about that track, at least in my opinion, is it was one of those tracks that certain horses just couldn't handle.

I follow NYRA pretty closely and have for a long time. There are days on the inner that resemble a merry go round, but that is more the exception and not the rule. I think Belmont and Saratoga are very fair surfaces. Again, each has their days when speed is either great or awful, but day in, day out I find the racing to be fair.

[ranchwest]

The last two racing nights @ Delta Downs, Speed has been king!
Naturally speed-friendly with its' short stretch run, this week Delta really has been a front-runners paradise. Once rains come & the track has work done on it closers might have a better shot, but for now, stick to Speed capping...
Matt Carothers would be cleaning up!

In the old days, DED was usually wet fast after rains. In fact, the old QH 550 record was set in a driving storm. I think the horse was Bugs Alive In 75 IIRC. I believe that record has since been broken.

I haven't followed DED as closely in recent years, but I'd guess that it still runs that way. The nights I've watched when it was wet it seemed fast.