Who Wins this race.

[Ejmenz]

Secretariat is out with an injury, the field is going 1 1/4 at Churchill, who wins and how?

1. Cigar
2. Affirmed
3. Spectacular Bid
4. Seattle Slew
5. Skip Away
6. John Henry
7. Forego
8. Ghostzapper

[Dahoss9698]

Zenyatta. The other horses would be so intimidated by her paddock antics that none of them would show up with their "A" game and she runs down the speed late.

Trevor Denman is calling the race and he misses her rally until the 1/16 pole because he is too busy saying the others would have to sprout wings to catch Seattle Slew.

TVG is forced to cut to a race at another track when Ken Rudolph spontaneously combusts as she crosses the wire first.

[Stillriledup]

Give each horse a jockey, that would make it more fun!

[Jackal]

Forego would beat a fast closing Spectacular Bid. Not enough speed in the race to tire Forego.

[DJofSD]

Are we going solely by name recognition or do we get some PPs with that handicapping challenge?

[Robert Goren]

At a mile and a 1/4, Seattle Slew wins. Other distances get other winners. JMO

[Kimsus]

At what Distance or what Track?

All carrying equal weights?

[Johnny V]

At a mile and a 1/4, Seattle Slew wins. Other distances get other winners. JMO

I agree and would also add at a mile and a half as well. Seattle Slew, if memory serves, defeated Affirmed twice, once in the Jockey Gold Cup which was run at a mile and a half back then. Affirmed beat Spectacular Bid the next year in that same race. Of course there were age differences, both winners were 4 and the losers 3 yo. My vote goes to Slew.

[Tom]

FOREGO - flying late and just getting there by a head.

[Ejmenz]

Thanks very much guys, I was shocked to see all the Slew votes, but I agree completly, thanks for the responses.

[joanied]

Thanks very much guys, I was shocked to see all the Slew votes, but I agree completly, thanks for the responses.

Hey...I'm late :) ...but gonna add my two cents anyway...glad you left out Big Red:ThmbUp: ...other wise, it's a no contest:D ...
Forego...by a head:jump:

[46zilzal]

FOREGO - flying late and just getting there by a head.
The grittiest and most adaptable animal to come along (other than the exception here) in the last 60 years.
On his best day old John would hit the board as well.

Geldings are the best racers

[joanied]

The grittiest and most adaptable animal to come along (other than the exception here) in the last 60 years.
On his best day old John would hit the board as well.

Geldings are the best racers

I assume you are talking about the Mighty Forego...and I agree, with one tiny exception...watch the '76 Suburban for the little colt with the true grit of a horse the size of Forego:) :) :) (hey, that might be a good name for a horse...'True Grit' .

Ol' John would have been at a disadvantage in this race, Zilly...it's dirt.

[affirmedny]

These are arguably the best horses to have raced in the last 30 years. And every horse on list with possible exception of Ghostzapper is from very ordinary to obscure breeding.

[46zilzal]

I assume you are talking about the Mighty Forego...and I agree, with one tiny exception...watch the '76 Suburban for the little colt with the true grit of a horse the size of Forego:) :) :) (hey, that might be a good name for a horse...'True Grit' .


We had one his conquerers from Saratoga (Quiet Little Table) end up here and was he "used up." Lasted about four races and that was that: bleeding.

At his best John could run on anything.

[PaceAdvantage]

Seattle Slew was quite simply an amazing racehorse.

The following video should be required annual watching (at least!).

Forget about the races Seattle Slew won...watch this one that he lost (one of only three lifetime out of 17)!

zZFr6N2lNY4

[PhantomOnTour]

Neat what if scenario, or what will be scenario.

I cant find the winner(how bout some odds?!) but will mark this in advance as being a possible key race. :)

I will check the splits and final times against the other races that day to see if we have any budding stars in this group :lol:

Stay tuned for my analysis after reviewing the days charts.

[PhantomOnTour]

Preliminarily, and its just a guess, but I THINK this Slew colt will show a lil speed.

[bisket]

i am so happy to see the bid in second :ThmbUp: . i voted for the bid, but couldn't fault anyone for voting for any of these.

[andtheyreoff]

Forego will nail Slew, John Henry 3rd.

M/L:

1. Cigar- 10-1
2. Affirmed- 5-1
3. Spectacular Bid- 5-1
4. Seattle Slew- 5-2
5. Skip Away- 30-1
6. John Henry- 8-1
7. Forego- 9-5
8. Ghostzapper- 20-1

Dahoss9698, :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[joanied]

These are arguably the best horses to have raced in the last 30 years. And every horse on list with possible exception of Ghostzapper is from very ordinary to obscure breeding.

And none had a 16 million $$ price tag:D ...which just goes to show that "ya never know" (trainer to Trotter on what horse to bet)...
a blue blooded pedigree isn't a sure thing for getting the 'big' horses:)

In fact, affirmedny...you brought up a really good point:ThmbUp:

[joanied]

Hey PA...thanks for posting that race...phew:faint: took my breath away all over again... makes me really get 'home sick' for the good old days...Cordero and Shoemaker...what could be better than that:jump: What a race:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Kimsus]

How reliable is this poll when no one knows what the terms of the race are? What's the distance? At what track? Are we talking about their best race or a set of races?

Who wins, that's it? How about what tastes better A Big Mac or A Big Mac? Well I guess we know who would win a popularity contest if that were asked.

[only11]

IMO Bid was a better horse then Slew.

[bisket]

IMO Bid was a better horse then Slew.
:ThmbUp:

[Dahoss9698]

How reliable is this poll when no one knows what the terms of the race are? What's the distance? At what track? Are we talking about their best race or a set of races?

Who wins, that's it? How about what tastes better A Big Mac or A Big Mac? Well I guess we know who would win a popularity contest if that were asked.

If you read the initial post in the thread it states where and at what distance this "race" is.

[Kimsus]

I need new glasses, didn't see it. Still why is John Henry here?

[Ejmenz]

You may not like John's talent on dirt, but his greatness on any surface, prolonged excellence at the highest level, and gritty determination, make him a must IMO.

Bid was the 2nd most talented horse I ever saw, but I am surprised Affirmed has not received more love, he did win the Triple Crown Bid did not, and in their only meeting he beat Bid soundly.

Spectacular Bid had a better press agent in Buddy Delp, we all remember the famous "best horse that ever looked through a bridle" quote, but Affirmed was a better race horse, he won when it counted.

[Kimsus]

If the poll reflected an oddsboard I would be put $1000 to win on both Ghostzapper and Cigar. 2.48% popularity in this field would be an enornous overlay for these 2.

[toussaud]

Secretariat is out with an injury, the field is going 1 1/4 at Churchill, who wins and how?

1. Cigar
2. Affirmed
3. Spectacular Bid
4. Seattle Slew
5. Skip Away
6. John Henry
7. Forego
8. Ghostzapper


7F= Ghostzapper
1 mile: Slew
9F: Spectacular Bid
10: Spectacular Bid
12f +: Forego

[toussaud]

You may not like John's talent on dirt, but his greatness on any surface, prolonged excellence at the highest level, and gritty determination, make him a must IMO.

Bid was the 2nd most talented horse I ever saw, but I am surprised Affirmed has not received more love, he did win the Triple Crown Bid did not, and in their only meeting he beat Bid soundly.

Spectacular Bid had a better press agent in Buddy Delp, we all remember the famous "best horse that ever looked through a bridle" quote, but Affirmed was a better race horse, he won when it counted.

I think the losing streak he went on for a while really hurts the way he is viewed by historians (i.e internet horse racing fans)

[Buckeye]

Cigar does not belong in this group nor does Skip Away nor probably Ghostzapper. In my opinion The Bid beats them all at least 5 out of 10 times. Seattle Slew wins 3 times and now we're down to two. Affirmed wins them both.

Shut out are Forego
John Henry along with the rest.

[Buckeye]

and I might add the two girls RA and Zenyatta, who are currently the best in the world, do not belong with this group either. One horse I saw who might win one out of ten though, and is NOT on this list was Broad Brush, with Angel Cordero Jr. up. :eek:

[ranchwest]

It would be interesting to see Wise Times in that field. Not that I think he'd be likely to win, but it sure would be interesting to see how much he could close on a quality field, especially if it rained. I was amazed when I saw him come from 25 back to win the Super Derby. He'd be an interesting horse to round out the field.

[framarco]

Its very nice to see that Slew is being recognized as the best of this group. Buddy Delp might have disagreed but Slew's Champagne remains the best race by a two-year-old in the last 40 years. I believe that he is the only horse of the last half-century that could have run with Secretariat through the entire 12 furlongs of his Belmont. History has never given Slew his proper due as a freak of nature insofar as not only could he streak the first quarter in 22 flat but that he had superior stamina to stay 10 or 12 furlongs as well.

However, since I loved watching the great and mighty Forego close from the Cross Island many times, I would hope that Slew and Forego were only separated by a nose at the wire.

[eastie]

the bid was breathtaking to watch

[ExoticDancer]

Triple Crown winner Affirmed wins with ease.

[Kimsus]

Triple Crown winner Affirmed wins with ease.
With ease?

[andtheyreoff]

Based on vote totals.

1. Cigar- 28-1
2. Affirmed- No votes placed.
3. Spectacular Bid- 5-2
4. Seattle Slew- 6-5
5. Skip Away- 60-1
6. John Henry- 18-1
7. Forego- 6-1
8. Ghostzapper- 28-1

[tzipi]

Based on vote totals.

1. Cigar- 28-1
2. Affirmed- No votes placed.
3. Spectacular Bid- 5-2
4. Seattle Slew- 6-5
5. Skip Away- 60-1
6. John Henry- 18-1
7. Forego- 6-1
8. Ghostzapper- 28-1

I would take 30-1 on Zapper or Cigar at his top. Good value.

[46zilzal]

Old Buddy Delp making excuses every time Bid breathed wrong and Laz being the class act he always was.

I talked to a groom at Claiborne while we approached Bid's stall right across the way from Secretariat's and I said :"he had more class than the owners," to which I got a very broad smile.

[bisket]

now if were wagering on this race 100$ on forego's nose. all this speed he'd get'm at the wire

[bisket]

Old Buddy Delp making excuses every time Bid breathed wrong and Laz being the class act he always was.

I talked to a groom at Claiborne while we approached Bid's stall right across the way from Secretariat's and I said :"he had more class than the owners," to which I got a very broad smile.
dem trainers from md love to shoot their mouth off!!! dicky dutrow is the latest model
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD6ghskNKa8

[Kimsus]

For Affirmed lovers, I doubt Affirmed ever did anything with ease or maybe I
was just hullicinating all those wins over Alydar to be hard close wins.

[Buckeye]

I gave Affirmed a 2 out of ten chance so He deserves some consideration. He was the last horse to win the Triple Crown for cryin out loud. How bout Tiznow? Would he win this race? I know one thing and that is for sure Cigar would be in big trouble.

[tzipi]

I gave Affirmed a 2 out of ten chance so He deserves some consideration. He was the last horse to win the Triple Crown for cryin out loud. How bout Tiznow? Would he win this race? I know one thing and that is for sure Cigar would be in big trouble.

Well Alydar was right there too against Affirmed. I just don't think Affirmed could hang with this group. But you never know. Cigar could sit off the pace and at his height of his career(not his last 3-4 races) I think he could def be in the mix at the wire. He was explosive on the turn and stretch.

[Buckeye]

Do not completely disagree, but the turn and the stretch are not the finish line. Cigar won many races including the Dubai World Cup, which troubles me most in dismissing him here. He didn't really beat anyone of note in the Breeders' Cup.

[Ejmenz]

Affirmed BEAT the Bid. He could hang with any group, and he beat Alydar, that was a great accomplishment, and he beat him again and again, Affirmed was an amazing horse, look at his Cali prep races before the derby, he may not have beaten Alydar by much, but he beat the rest by a bunch.

[Ejmenz]

I love handicappers.

16 people pick Spectacular Bid.

0 people pick Affirmed.

Yet Affirmed beat Spectacular Bid on the track.

How many nails can one horse step on?

[tzipi]

Do not completely disagree, but the turn and the stretch are not the finish line. Cigar won many races including the Dubai World Cup, which troubles me most in dismissing him here. He didn't really beat anyone of note in the Breeders' Cup.

L'carrirer. Soul of the Matter(Won Super Derby,Goodward,2nd Dubai), Peaks and Valleys(3yo Canadian Champion and Horse of the Year) Unaccounted for(G1 winner and multiple stakes placed), Concern(Oaklawn H,Californian,Arkansas Derby,BC Classic). Amongst others stakes winners..
pretty darn good field and he set a new record in the race. Hard to toss Cigar at his height. Scary good.

[bisket]

you could probably argue this point forever, but i think bid was not at his best that summer and fall after the triple crown races. most times the handicap horses arent asked for their best races until fall, and the 3 year olds have already been through the ringer with the crown races. now i think the spectacular bid that raced in california and then came back east in his 4 year old year rates with any horse on that list, and deserves second billing. he set 2 track records at santa anita that winter. at 7 furs and a 1 1/4 mile that still stand today. not a small accomplishment at a major track like that. the 4 year old bid was an all time great :ThmbUp:

[Buckeye]

L'carrirer. Soul of the Matter(Won Super Derby,Goodward,2nd Dubai), Peaks and Valleys(3yo Canadian Champion and Horse of the Year) Unaccounted for(G1 winner and multiple stakes placed), Concern(Oaklawn H,Californian,Arkansas Derby,BC Classic). Amongst others stakes winners..
pretty darn good field and he set a new record in the race. Hard to toss Cigar at his height. Scary good.

Bunch of World beaters.

The Bid went Nine for Nine as a four-year-old and overall I think he was better than Affirmed. I think I got it right.

The Bid

Seattle Slew

Affirmed.

No Cigar.

[tzipi]

Bunch of World beaters.

The Bid went Nine for Nine as a four-year-old and overall I think he was better than Affirmed. I think I got it right.

The Bid

Seattle Slew

Affirmed.

No Cigar.

World beaters? Sorry but I don't think that was the worst field in BC history. I didn't even list all the horses or their wins.

All the raw speed. I'll take Cigar or Forego at a price. Is this most talented poll or who'd win? Because there's a TON of speed that's going to burn itself out in this race. Affirmed,Seattle Slew,Ghostzapper,Bid all bust hard from the gate.
You're saying the Bid, Seattle Slew and Affirmed run 1-2-3 with all that speed battling eachother from the start?? Wow. Forego would have trouble closing into all that speed?? Again, wow.

[Kimsus]

L'carrirer. Soul of the Matter(Won Super Derby,Goodward,2nd Dubai), Peaks and Valleys(3yo Canadian Champion and Horse of the Year) Unaccounted for(G1 winner and multiple stakes placed), Concern(Oaklawn H,Californian,Arkansas Derby,BC Classic). Amongst others stakes winners..
pretty darn good field and he set a new record in the race. Hard to toss Cigar at his height. Scary good.

He also beat Smart Strike.

[Kimsus]

The one thing I will say about Cigar is he was campaigned agressively during the 2 years he was on top, plus he was wasted on the wrong surface for almost 2 years before being put on dirt. Maybe he didn't run the fastest races numbers wise but had he started on dirt sooner and had he picked his spots more wisely to preserve his freshness, there's no telling he may have been even better than what he showed.

[tzipi]

He also beat Smart Strike.

He might've beat him in another race during the year but Smart Strike wasn't in the 95 BC Classic.

[PaceAdvantage]

Cigar's numbers weren't anything to sneeze at either...he ran some pretty fast races if I recall...but Seattle Slew was, in my opinion, in another world on his best day compared to Cigar.

[Norm]

A tough call between Seattle Slew and Forego. I voted for Forego. That big, lumbering giant of a horse was hard to beat in a stretch run. Might be a tougher race if you switched out Affirmed for Dr. Fager and replaced Skip Away with Kelso.

[tzipi]

Cigar's numbers weren't anything to sneeze at either...he ran some pretty fast races if I recall...but Seattle Slew was, in my opinion, in another world on his best day compared to Cigar.

I agree,Seattle Slew is in another world but I was just wondering if all these raw high speed horses would wear him down a bit and set it up for a strong closer. Ghost,Seattle,Bid, and Affrimed will be at eachothers throats from the start. ALOT of speed put in this race.

[mountainman]

Affirmed beat Spectacular Bid the next year in that same race. Of course there were age differences, both winners were 4 and the losers 3 yo. My vote goes to Slew.

Bud Delp once acknowledged privately to me that he thought Shoemaker blundered in the race you allude to, and I totally agree. With moderate rather than testing fractions, this virtual match race became a test of guts rather than talent. And remember also that the then 3-yr-old Bid improved considerably the next season. Like many who witnessed him (and so keenly appreciated his breaking the long drought of triple crown winners)) I have long knelt at the temple of mighty Secretariat, but my gut says 4-yr-old Spectacular Bid was indeed 'the best horse ever to look through a bridle.'

By the way, for a 'dream race,' this field seems a little lacking in raw speed.
Dr Fager would have wired this bunch toting 140.

[tzipi]

By the way, for a 'dream race,' this field seems a little lacking in raw speed.
Dr Fager would have wired this bunch toting 140.

So Affirmed being able to click off 21.3 in a short race(Dr. Fager never did) and 45's in longer races is no speed? Seattle Slew clicked off 45's in his races. Throw in the Bid and Ghostzapper. No raw speed,huh??
Nothing against the Dr but no speed in this race? We looking at the same one? :)

[mountainman]

So Affirmed being able to click off 21.3 in a short race(Dr. Fager never did) and 45's in longer races is no speed? Seattle Slew clicked off 45's in his races. Throw in the Bid and Ghostzapper. No raw speed,huh??
Nothing against the Dr but no speed in this race? We looking at the same one? :)

Bottom claimers at TD 'click off' sub 22 quarters in short races. My observation wasn't about fractions, it was about running style. But as long as we are talking splits, have you even checked out Dr Fager's?? 45 was a canter for him.

[OntheRail]

I choose Affirmed he had no votes in this poll and that's not right... The horse had chops and could win in the field just as much as any other horse listed. He had load of heart... grit... spirit and class. It would be a horse race anything can happen... I'll take Affirmed for the Win as long as it's not as SA on plastic.. :lol: .

I see someone else agrees.

[tzipi]

Bottom claimers at TD 'click off' sub 22 quarters in short races. My observation wasn't about fractions, it was about running style. But as long as we are talking splits, have you even checked out Dr Fager's?? 45 was a canter for him.

Trust me I know all about Dr. Fager and love him but if your saying Affirmed or Seattle Sleww are comparable to bottom claimers with their times, thats nuts. Affirmed and Slew can rattle off same fractions as Fager at longer distances and no, they were'nt panting and 30+ lengths up the track at the end. Plus there's other speed in there(Bid and Zap). Its a very heavy speed race this field IMO. I think Forego might be licking his chops at top of the stretch.

Hey, if your going to just add The Doctor to the race I could add Damascus who beat Fager twice and there's enough speed in there to maybe beat him a third time. :)

[only11]

I love handicappers.

16 people pick Spectacular Bid.

0 people pick Affirmed.

Yet Affirmed beat Spectacular Bid on the track.

How many nails can one horse step on?
AFFIRMED WAS 4 BID WAS A 3 YEAR OLD

[mountainman]

if your saying Affirmed or Seattle Sleww are comparable to bottom claimers with their times, thats nuts.

No, if you're saying that a sub 22 quarter attained in a so cal sprint puts a horse in Dr Fager's league speed-wise, THAT'S nuts.

[tzipi]

No, if you're saying that a sub 22 quarter attained in a so cal sprint puts a horse in Dr Fager's league speed-wise, THAT'S nuts.


Who said that???? Are you making stuff up? You said that, not me! I said Affirmed could run 21 and change. That was a juvenile stakes race,not a bottom claimer. Look at his other races. Not such a slow horse. Geez,read your own posts. You came back and said bottom claimers can tick that off. We are talking about world class horses here, not bottom claimers.
Affirmed and Seattle can run the same fractions as Dr. It's a speed race with also Zap and Bid maybe up there. Not saying none would win. But where is this a lone speed race with Dr. fager just running up front? You think the jockeys would even allow that with all the speed?

[mountainman]

Who said that???? Are you making stuff up? You said that, not me! I said Affirmed could run 21 and change. That was a juvenile stakes race,not a bottom claimer. Look at his other races. Not such a slow horse. Geez,read your own posts. You came back and said bottom claimers can tick that off.
Affirmed and Seattle can run the same fractions as Dr. It's a speed race with also Zap and Bid maybe up there. Not saying none would win. But where is this a lone speed race with Dr. fager just running up front? You think the jockeys would even allow that with all the speed?

You clearly implied that a sub 22 first quarter(attained in a so cal sprint) qualified Affirmed as a pace factor in this mythical race. I invoked btm claimers to illustrate how ridiculous that contention was. Your subsequent post introducing class to the pace equation only underscored my point.

[tzipi]

You clearly implied that a sub 22 first quarter(attained in a so cal sprint) qualified Affirmed as a pace facor in this mythical race. I invoked btm claimers to illustrate just how meaningless raw first quarter fractions can be. Your subsequent post introducing class to the pace equation only underscored my point.

No I said Affirmed could run fast and his PP's show that. What's Affirmed's speed and class have to do with bottom claimers?? What about Slew,Bid,Zap,etc? Ok whatever, you think in a race with The Bid,Ghost,Affirmed and Slew that Dr. fager who not even in the field I should say would have a easy win upfront. OK. Well again, you add the Dr to the field but where's Damascus who beat him twice :)

[mountainman]

No I said Affirmed could run fast and his PP's show that.

No, that's a revision of your original comment which clearly implied that a sub 22 quarter posted in a sprint race (in so cal, for the record) made Affirmed a pace factor versus the immortals. And that's nonsense.

[tzipi]

No, that's a revision of your original comment which clearly implied that a sub 22 quarter posted in a sprint race (in so cal, for the record) made Affirmed a pace factor versus the immortals. And that's nonsense.

Ok so Affirmed was cheap speed and never held it in distance races. Still off your point of Dr being only speed. Slew? Bid? Zap?

[bisket]

you have to admire the way slew ran his races. in a speed type race like this slew could run horses into the ground. look where affirmed ended up in that race with slew and exceller. i still say slew was lucky to have billy turner as his trainer when he was young. how many trainers would have spent days upon days trying to rate him. turner just let the horse run his race from the beginning. slew's style was i'm going to run as fast as i can for as far as i can. lets just see if you can beat me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2w83zPr6wU&feature=related

[bisket]

this race shows the greatness of slew. he was a bully. watch the whole video. the last minute explains the greatness of slew.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWO0QgZKoYY&feature=related


another point i'd like to make: i think big brown would have appreciated the chance to do this in the belmont. his trainer told kent to let him go at the beginning, but the idiot decided to fight the horse and attempted to rate him. when aggressive horses are on the inside it only ramps up the aggressiveness to another level. the trick that dutrow used with brown in the derby and preakness was to run him outside. the horse was much more passive when he wasn't on the rail or between horses. there is another horse thats like this: ZENYATTA!!!!!!!!!

[only11]

this race shows the greatness of slew. he was a bully. watch the whole video. the last minute explains the greatness of slew.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWO0QgZKoYY&feature=related


another point i'd like to make: i think big brown would have appreciated the chance to do this in the belmont. his trainer told kent to let him go at the beginning, but the idiot decided to fight the horse and attempted to rate him. when aggressive horses are on the inside it only ramps up the aggressiveness to another level. the trick that dutrow used with brown in the derby and preakness was to run him outside. the horse was much more passive when he wasn't on the rail or between horses. there is another horse thats like this: ZENYATTA!!!!!!!!!
The only thing about Slew...the only time he left the east coast he got beat..the Bid went everywhere and set records East and West coast

[bisket]

The only thing about Slew...the only time he left the east coast he got beat..the Bid went everywhere and set records East and West coast
hey don't get me wrong; i'm from md and the bid is one of my favorite horses all time. the one time slew did go west it was directly after the belmont and his form was comprimised significantly. billy turner was against it, but the owners insisted, and than fired billy after the horse didn't perform all that well.

[tzipi]

hey don't get me wrong; i'm from md and the bid is one of my favorite horses all time. the one time slew did go west it was directly after the belmont and his form was comprimised significantly. billy turner was against it, but the owners insisted, and than fired billy after the horse didn't perform all that well.

Yeah, they shouldn't have gone right to California after the Triple Crown. Shame Billy took the hit for that.

[Buckeye]

I answered the question-- "who wins this race?" with a probability estimate. Cigar gets almost a zero because anything can happen right? Such as Broad Brush winning this race IF he could get in. :) Soul of the Matter? Give me a break please. Let's just agree to keep Cigar OUT of any discussion relating to all time greats. Slew was an all time great, he won the TRIPLE CROWN and was undefeated when he did. Next, he did a few more "good things." However, the Bid was better which answers the question posed.

[tzipi]

I answered the question-- "who wins this race?" with a probability estimate. Cigar gets almost a zero because anything can happen right? Such as Broad Brush winning this race IF he could get in. :) Soul of the Matter? Give me a break please. Let's just agree to keep Cigar OUT of any discussion relating to all time greats. Slew was an all time great, he won the TRIPLE CROWN and was undefeated when he did. Next, he did a few more "good things." However, the Bid was better which answers the question posed.

Wow hate Cigar do we :D Here comes the no I really like him but....
Yeah he was overrated horse who ran slow times against garbage fields who really showed no talent in the stretch? Cmon now. He belongs in the top all time greats and is on every "top horses of all time" lists.

[Ejmenz]

I understand Affirmed was a year older then the Bid, but Riva Ridge was older then Secretariat and we know how that worked out.

Spectacular Bid was a great horse.

but he did not win the triple crown, that counts for a lot in my books.

and he lost to the best horse he ever faced.

he belongs on this list without doubt.

But his list of excuses don't wash, Franklin cost him, he stepped on a nail, Shoemaker cost him.

Fact is, IMO he was the most talented horse on the list, but the third best race horse, behind Slew and Affirmed.

[Dahoss9698]

Ok so Affirmed was cheap speed and never held it in distance races. Still off your point of Dr being only speed. Slew? Bid? Zap?

Ghostzapper wasn't really a speed horse. Not how you are describing him. He was a closing sprinter who was closer to the pace as he stretched out. In the Woodward it was basically a match race, so he was on the lead and in the Classic he set a pretty comfortable pace.

I suppose if asked he could have run fast early, but he didn't during his career.

[tzipi]

Ghostzapper wasn't really a speed horse. Not how you are describing him. He was a closing sprinter who was closer to the pace as he stretched out. In the Woodward it was basically a match race, so he was on the lead and in the Classic he set a pretty comfortable pace.

I suppose if asked he could have run fast early, but he didn't during his career.

Yeah, I wouldn't say he's speed of the speed here but he'd be up pressing close enough I think. I was just saying I think there's ALOT of speed and pressure in this race that Forego might be rolling by them late. Wouldn't say this a race void of speed. Tough one because I don't think any jock would let any of these class speed horses get away alone.

[Ejmenz]

Slew took Affirmed's pressure in 1:09 and change on the slop going a mile and a half, great horse's overcome everything including pace.

TVG did a special on the horses that won two parts of the triple crown, they touched on things that cost them the crown.

Pleasant Colony got caught behind a slow pace, they tried to slow the pace on Secretariat in the Preakness, one of the greatest moves ever was the result, Secretariat would make his own pace.

War Emblem lost the Belmont cause he stumbled at the break and never got the lead, Seattle Slew had to fight through the Derby field just to make the lead, after a bad break in the Derby, Slew wasn't going to be a victim, he was going to be a triple crown winner.

Real Quiet and Smarty Jones ran to fast to early in the Belmont, I think the splits were in the 1:11 range for 6f, Secretariat went 1:09, then he really started running.

The point isn't to diminish winning two parts of the triple crown, it's to stand back in amazement of how great those 11 horses were, simply incredible.

[mountainman]

I understand Affirmed was a year older then the Bid, but Riva Ridge was older then Secretariat and we know how that worked out.

Spectacular Bid was a great horse.


he belongs on this list without doubt.

But his list of excuses don't wash,

Fact is, IMO he was the most talented horse on the list, but the third best race horse, behind Slew and Affirmed.

Affirmed lost 4 in a row at one point in his career. How's THAT for a horse in need of some excuse making?

[mountainman]

Slew took Affirmed's pressure in 1:09 and change on the slop going a mile and a half, great horse's overcome everything including pace.

TVG did a special on the horses that won two parts of the triple crown, they touched on things that cost them the crown.

Pleasant Colony got caught behind a slow pace, they tried to slow the pace on Secretariat in the Preakness, one of the greatest moves ever was the result, Secretariat would make his own pace.

War Emblem lost the Belmont cause he stumbled at the break and never got the lead, Seattle Slew had to fight through the Derby field just to make the lead, after a bad break in the Derby, Slew wasn't going to be a victim, he was going to be a triple crown winner.

Real Quiet and Smarty Jones ran to fast to early in the Belmont, I think the splits were in the 1:11 range for 6f, Secretariat went 1:09, then he really started running.

The point isn't to diminish winning two parts of the triple crown, it's to stand back in amazement of how great those 11 horses were, simply incredible.

Some of this is HIGHLY debatable.

[mountainman]

Ok so Affirmed was cheap speed and never held it in distance races. Still off your point of Dr being only speed. Slew? Bid? Zap?

During his unbeaten 4-yr-old season, Spectacular Bid made the lead at the first call a grand total of one (1, uno, single) time. And that was the walkover.

[tzipi]

During his unbeaten 4-yr-old season, Spectacular Bid made the lead at the first call a grand total of one (1, uno, single) time. And that was the walkover.

What about his 3yo season and his 2yo season? Why just 4??

I just said there was alot of up on the speed and pace horses here. They are not all midpack horses and closers. If you think not,than go look at all their races.

[tzipi]

By the way, for a 'dream race,' this field seems a little lacking in raw speed.
Dr Fager would have wired this bunch toting 140.

Ok Dr. Fager whips this "no speed" field toting 140! :lol: Fager would whip Slew? OK

#1 How about I just add in Secretariat to run Dr fager into the ground? You could add any horse to this field.

#2 Or maybe add Damascus, who beat The Doctor twice.

Sorry, I just dont agree with you on the speed horses and that Dr would walk.

[mountainman]

#1 How about I just add in Secretariat to run Dr fager into the ground?

Secretariat was a speed horse? With all respect sir, I'm going to venture a wild guess here that running style and race shape aren't your strongsuits as a handicapper.

[tzipi]

Secretariat was a speed horse? With all respect sir, I'm going to venture a wild guess here that running style and race shape aren't your strongsuits as a handicapper.

Hey Mountainman I'm guessing you're not the best handicapper and also don't know racing history. Secretariat when put out front in the 1 /2 Belmont and ran 23,46.1,1:09.4,etc,etc. Yeah when they put him out front for speed he was SLLOWWWWW. That is so slow for a 1 1/2 race. Turcotte wasn't even asking him. He obvioulsy was a talented speed horse who could run horses in to the ground if need be.

Last time I checked Dr ran 1 1/4. He ran 6f in 1:09.2 and lost by almost 3. The time before that,that he ran 6f in 1:09 and change he lost by 10. Secretariat ran those fractions in a 1 1/2 race and won by how much?
Guessing history and horses abilities isn't your strongsuit at all. Wow good job saying I dont know much about running style and how to handicap. :D

[mountainman]

Hey Mountainman I'm guessing you're not the best handicapper and also don't know racing history. Secretariat when put out front in the 1 /2 Belmont and ran 23,46.1,1:09.4,etc,etc. Yeah when they put him out front for speed he was SLLOWWWWW. That is so slow for a 1 1/2 race. Turcotte wasn't even asking him. He obvioulsy was a talented speed horse who could run horses in to the ground if need be.

Last time I checked Dr ran 1 1/4. He ran 6f in 1:09.2 and lost by almost 3. The time before that,that he ran 6f in 1:09 and change he lost by 10. Secretariat ran those fractions in a 1 1/2 race and won by how much?
Guessing history and horses abilities isn't your strongsuit at all. Wow good job saying I dont know much about running style and how to handicap. :D

You are referencing a TWELVE-furlong race with a 23 and change first fraction to characterize Secretariat as a 'speed horse????' Are you remotely familiar with ANY of these horses? Have you actually looked at their forms? Do you at all understand the concept of running style?

[tzipi]

You are referencing a TWELVE-furlong race with a 23 and change first fraction to characterize Secretariat as a 'speed horse????' Are you remotely familiar with ANY of these horses? Have you actually looked at their forms? Do you at all understand the concept of running style?

uhh how about the 46 and 1:09 and 1:59 fractions too!

Forget it you have no idea. The last two times Fager ran 1 1/4 where his fractions were 1:09 and change at the 6F mark he got beat in the stretch good. Secretariat ran those fractions in a 1 1/2 race and wasn't even being asked. Pretty sure he could do it in a shorter race if he wanted. Secretriat ran 1:08 and change in a race up to the 6F mark. Say what you want about his speed. Pretty sure if Ron asked him ,he could run fast as hell up front.

Yeah we know Dr. Fager would whip Secretriat,Slew,Affirmed,Bid, and whoever else in a race even with weight poured on him. :rolleyes:

[mountainman]

uhh how about the 46 and 1:09 and 1:59 fractions too!

Forget it you have no idea. The last two times Fager ran 1 1/4 where his fractions were 1:09 and change at the 6F mark he got beat in the stretch good. Secretariat ran those fractions in a 1 1/2 race and wasn't even being asked. Pretty sure he could do it in a shorter race if he wanted. Secretriat ran 1:08 and change in a race up to the 6F mark. Say what you want about his speed. Pretty sure if Ron asked him ,he could run fast as hell up front.

Yeah we know Dr. Fager would whip Secretriat,Slew,Affirmed,Bid, and whoever else in a race even with weight poured on him. :rolleyes:

Variables like surface-speed, run-up distance, race distance and track configuration all render the raw fractions you fling around as nearly meaningless in attempting to forcast the race-flow for a field like this.

Awwwww, on second thought just forget it. I bow to your superior knowledge.

[tzipi]

Variables like surface-speed, run-up distance, race distance and track configuration all render the raw fractions you fling around as nearly meaningless in attempting to forcast the race-flow for a field like this.

Awwwww, on second thought just forget it. I bow to your superior knowledge.

Nope not superior knowledge. Just questioning you saying Dr Fager would whip this "slow" field with weight poured on him!
Seattle Slew ran 45 and change all the time at 1 1/4 races. So that's no speed to keep up with Dr? Dr Fager ran 45's and slower ones too. Why do you think Fager would just walk home over Slew and whoever else with alot more weight put on him. Anytime Fager went 1:09 and change in 1 1/4 race he got beat solidly. That's why I said Secretariat would outlast him on speed. The Bid could go 1:09 and change and walk home.

Unless your making this dream race with you adding Dr. Fager to it a 5f or 6f race. That seems wrong. But hey if you want to beat all your money on Fager at a classic 1 1/4 dream race with all these guys and good speed and more weight on Fager, go for it! Bet it all :)

[letswastemoney]

There would be a blazing pace in a race like this. I think a stalker would win, because when multiple horses that like to go 45 and change in a 10 furlong race are running, something has to give in the last few seconds. Some horse is going to pull an Exceller type race and take it at the end.

[bisket]

i think the pace would be pretty darn quick. you take two horses that have to be in front whenever possible: slew and affirmed. thats all you need because none of the chasers: bid, zapper, cigar, and skippy would let them get to far ahead. sometimes pace can get out of hand enough that it even comprimises the chasers. this is what happened to afleet alex in the derby. now i don't think just any closer would be able to catch this crowd. i wouldn't say this field would be backing up, but they may be comprimised enough that a horse of forego's quality could get them.
buckeye i like your taste in horses broad brush is one of my all time favs :ThmbUp: