NTRA Handicapping Contest is an unfair sham

[InsideThePylons-MW]

A friend of mine who qualified for the 2nd year in a row was once again given a seat with no TV. I guess there are about 60 non-TV seats.

Last year when he didn't get one, he complained and was told that they were given out in order of finish position in each qualifier, or something along that line. This year he finished 2nd in a major contest and once again was shipped off to the back of the room with no TV. When he complained about it and said he finished 2nd in a qualifier, he was then given a totally different explanation of how they assign them. Many that qualified way below him got TV's. He talked to somebody who seemed to know the process and basically was told the seats are given out to winners and after that, if they know you or are a frequent contest participant, they give you a TV seat.

Unfair disadvantages for those not getting a TV seat.......

With 7 tracks being used in the contest it is vital to have access to each signal when needed (odds, MTP, late scratches/changes, etc).

No access to volume of simulcast feeds.

Impossible to watch post parades or warm-ups.

No electrical outlets for computers which the TV seats have.

Non-TV seats are way in the back of room which makes it more time consuming to put a contest slip in.

They tell all contestants they must sit in their assigned seats, so even if they can maneuver and get a seat in a VIP booth or something, they can't sit there.

So basically.....

Some contestants have access to a TV which gives them an absolutely unconscionable information edge which is an unfair advantage of epic proportions.... .couple that with they also are closer to contest windows, have electrical access for computers and better lighting makes the entire contest a joke.

It's just impossible that this contest can be called anything but an unfair sham.

Could you imagine at The Masters, they randomly tell only a few participants that they are not allowed to use a putter during the tournament?

How can this happen at the so-called "National Handicapping Challenge"?

If you go here http://www.drf.com/nhc/2009/whoswho.html and read about the who's who that are there, I would like to bet that none of the "industry bigwigs" which are listed got shoved to the back of the room with no TV.

Great job DRF and NTRA! Your utter incompetence in not knowing, or caring, how big of an advantage having a TV seat creates has tainted your signature event for horseplayers.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Some very good points.

So what do you think would provide a solution?

- fewer finals contestants so they all get a seat?
- conduct the national finals online?
- find a larger venue?

[statepierback]

I will be very interested in this event as I am familiar with some of the contestants. As for the tv's, yes that somewhat unfair but horses have been known to win from the second tier. Bottom line PICK WINNERS and you will be o.k.

[David-LV]

InsideThePylons-MW
A friend of mine who qualified for the 2nd year in a row was once again given a seat with no TV. I guess there are about 60 non-TV seats.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Why didn't the Red Rock rent 60 TV's for the contest or is it to simple to think of this solution.

These people are completely brain dead.

Electric for computers is easy, just run electric strips to all seats that don't have electric.

It is just that easy to make everybody happy.

Then again, they only had a year to figure this out. :bang:

_________
David-LV

[RichieP]

A friend of mine who qualified for the 2nd year in a row was once again given a seat with no TV.

ITP
I agree with every word of your entire post. :ThmbUp:

I also see that this year Tampa Bay has NOT resigned with NTRA. Year after year they seem to be making all the right moves I.M.H.O

[Jackal]

After hearing this I can't wait to play the next qualifying tournament.

[Zman179]

Wow, ITP. There's no reason why certain players should have a huge advantage over others due to either lacking infrastructure, or wanton disregard for others.

What a scam. It only certifies my feeling about handicapping contests. Amount of contests that I was in this year: 0.

You know what I would love to hear? That one of these non-tv people actually win the title, and when they interview the winner he says, "Oh, I was just picking random numbers and names that sounded cute. I couldn't do any real handicapping from where I was sitting."

[rrbauer]

Once they have your money your leverage is gone. It's the same in every aspect of this game. It's all about horseplayers' money. From top to bottom. DRF and NTRA might have their brands on these contests, but you can bet that Crist and Waldrop will not be going to bat for anybody victimized by the way they're administered.

[cj]

Once they have your money your leverage is gone. It's the same in every aspect of this game. It's all about horseplayers' money. From top to bottom. DRF and NTRA might have their brands on these contests, but you can bet that Crist and Waldrop will not be going to bat for anybody victimized by the way they're administered.

I'd be surprised if Crist didn't say something. Try posting on his blog and see if he answers.

Edit:

Actually, I just did. I'll see if it is allowed and if he responds.

[slew101]

That seems to be an issue he'd tackle, but anything critical of DRF is rarely, if ever, cleared on that blog.

When Luke Kruytbosch died, DRF had it below 5 useless stories on their home page all day. Someone mentioned it on the blog and it was posted. When I posted agreement with the blog post, mine wasn't cleared and the original was deleted.

I'd be surprised if Crist didn't say something. Try posting on his blog and see if he answers.

Edit:

Actually, I just did. I'll see if it is allowed and if he responds.

[PaceAdvantage]

I wonder if our own Light was able to secure a TV seat...maybe he can respond here and let us know.

[Moyers Pond]

It is a contest and things like that happen, but please don't call this some national handicapping championship. It is a joke that you can't buy your way in. It is basically a contest of people that have a ton of free time to play in contest after contest until they qualify. I thought about trying it and took a look at the schedule. Have you ever seen the joke of a qualifier schedule. They put 4 qualifiers in 2 weeks at Fairplex. How many are at a place like Tampa. Zero.

I have to agree though that not having a tv, while others do is a disadvantage. It isn't huge, but there should be nobody put at a disadvantage. They know the # of contestants in advance. If they can't get a tv for each person they are idiots.

I am putting up the $1000 for the Orleans because I refuse to play in silly qualifiers even if they are available online. I have never played in one and never will simply because they barely return any of the money to the contestants. Almost all of it goes to this joke "championship". You can win a qualifier or qualify with a good finish and not be able to attend because you actually have a life and aren't available that weekend and the majority of the money put in the pool doesn't even go in your pocket. Atleast with the Orleans you know when it is and you know you are in it if you just show up with your money. That is a championship.

Personally I think it is sort of silly to have any contest at a place like Red Rock anyway. It is so far from the real Vegas that it is a joke. Atleast at the Orleans you can just get in a little shuttle and you are on the strip in a minute and the place has a gambler atmosphere to it, not some "spa" atmosphere.

I get the feeling the Orleans is going over $1 million this year. They project $700K, but at $1000 a pop, they will easily get to $1 million, especially with multiple entries allowed.

[cj]

That seems to be an issue he'd tackle, but anything critical of DRF is rarely, if ever, cleared on that blog.

When Luke Kruytbosch died, DRF had it below 5 useless stories on their home page all day. Someone mentioned it on the blog and it was posted. When I posted agreement with the blog post, mine wasn't cleared and the original was deleted.

So far it hasn't shown up.

[misscashalot]

:)

No different here with the American business model: Define Goal and then act accordingly. Apparently they want the best, according to their judgment, cappers to win, and they also want second tier types winners who truly overcame their disadvantage to qualify, for they deserve to be considered amongst the best. I think players should opt out of this type of game, because its a-sometimes-thing, and may not be worth the time and aggravation in order to devote their energies and time to working what they know better.

[rrbauer]

I'd be surprised if Crist didn't say something. Try posting on his blog and see if he answers.

Edit:

Actually, I just did. I'll see if it is allowed and if he responds.

Posts on his blog? And this is supposed to resolve the issue and make the folks who were shortchanged, whole?

[cj]

I was just saying that is a way to see if Crist will say anything. He is usually an advocate for bettors. Now if that holds true when the DRF name is attached may or may not be another story. I found it curious that you dropped the name of one of the few guys that sticks up for us sometimes.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Just got back from the contest area and it's just like I thought......

An unfair advantage of epic proportions.

TV's, electrical outlets, comfortable plush chairs, side-walled work stations for privacy and noise reduction, proper lighting and an easy walk to the selection windows.

vs.

Back of room madhouse, no privacy, tables that are only about 18 inches deep, a maze to get in and out of the back section, uncomfortable chairs, a noisy active bar right behind you, average lighting.....just a zoo in the back with a huge number of non-contestants between the front/good section and the back/bad section.

Penthouse vs Outhouse

It was worse than I thought.

I would absolutely let them know how unfair it was and get barred if I got stuck back there.

If you asked 100 people where they would rather sit, it would be 100-0 up front in the TV seats.

If you asked 100 people who sat one day in the TV seats and 1 day in the back seats, it would be 100-0 that sitting in the back is a huge disadvantage.

How can the NTRA and DRF be so moronic and not see how this is unfair?

[rgustafson]

Just wondering where Brian Troop, the first day leader was sitting? In the picture of him on the DRF website it appears he is seated in the "outhouse". So far, at least, he is far from stinking the joint up like some of those in the "penthouse".:D

[Stillriledup]

Just got back from the contest area and it's just like I thought......

An unfair advantage of epic proportions.

TV's, electrical outlets, comfortable plush chairs, side-walled work stations for privacy and noise reduction, proper lighting and an easy walk to the selection windows.

vs.

Back of room madhouse, no privacy, tables that are only about 18 inches deep, a maze to get in and out of the back section, uncomfortable chairs, a noisy active bar right behind you, average lighting.....just a zoo in the back with a huge number of non-contestants between the front/good section and the back/bad section.

Penthouse vs Outhouse

It was worse than I thought.

I would absolutely let them know how unfair it was and get barred if I got stuck back there.

If you asked 100 people where they would rather sit, it would be 100-0 up front in the TV seats.

If you asked 100 people who sat one day in the TV seats and 1 day in the back seats, it would be 100-0 that sitting in the back is a huge disadvantage.

How can the NTRA and DRF be so moronic and not see how this is unfair?


E mail Roger Stein and tell him to talk about this on the air tomorrow morning.

[Stillriledup]

I was just at DRF looking at the contest results....there are like 20 people who have ZERO in earnings. How's that possible? You have 15 mythical bets of win and place and you can't even get 2nd ONE TIME? That's hard to do. I guess all these people are just stabbing at 50-1 horses with no chance. This turns the contest into a bunch of people playing lottery, its got nothing to do with actual handicapping.

[Zman179]

This turns the contest into a bunch of people playing lottery, its got nothing to do with actual handicapping.

Most people who play in handicapping contests would never put real money on the same horses that they are selecting.

[stringmail]

Enough of the whining. Try to qualify, otherwise you simply sound like a "loser".

Troop is sitting in the far right with no dedicated TV. It is a shame that some folks have TVs and some don't. I don't. Wy wife has a TV. Last year, I had no light. Stuff happens. Howver, in my opinion, they should have it in a ballroom or limit the amount to the number of qualifiers so that the playing field is a little more aligned.

For Moyers, your perception is beyond comical. Comparing Orleans and DRF is like comparing PGA to Masters. Yes, you need to qualify. 302 folks shooting for top price. I'll take that over the three day grind at Orleans for same purse prize with double the contestants. If you want pay your $1000 for the HWS, please do so. The more the merrier but I think you are way off base in your perception of the NHC tourney.

As for the comment about playing your picks, it is a difficult situation. If you like a 20-1 shot at GP or SA, you absolutely would play it. At FG or other tracks with lesser handle, you'd quite like pass on the win bet and tie in to exotics as you are playing for $500K with no takeout and you can't afford to knock down your own price on the bomb.

[Stillriledup]

Most people who play in handicapping contests would never put real money on the same horses that they are selecting.

Why pick horses you won't bet in real life? If you dont like it enough to place a real money wager, why pick it in the contest?

[turfnsport]

For Moyers, your perception is beyond comical. Comparing Orleans and DRF is like comparing PGA to Masters.

IMHO, they both seem more like the Hooters Tour. :D

[Dick Powell]

My problem with the NTRA/DRF contest is that they allow media members to play for free in the qualifiers. I know Conn. OTB does this in order to get media coverage of their contest. Someone that doesn't pay to get in certainly has a different risk scenario than those that pay. I brought this to the attention of NTRA but nothing was done. Everyone should have to pay to play.

[cj]

They did post my comment and he responded. They did trim mine down to not include the part about how seat selection was determined:

"What is the deal with a lot of participants not getting televisions?

[Craig (and others who asked about the seating issue): My understanding is that there are about 300 contestants and 250 racebook seats. The NTRA is making the best of a bad situation and working on finding a larger venue, but it's tough because most casinos are downsizing their racebooks. There's a Players Committee panel working on the issue too. --SC]

"

[appistappis]

I've always been surprised by the number of handicappers who play in these types of things. After all, we are playing in a game that tells us if we are a winner in 110 and 3. I get my determination of being a good horse player by the number of trips to the cashiers window, not by somebody elses idea of what good handicapping is.

[exiles]

[QUOTE=Zman179]Most people who play in handicapping contests would never put real money on the same horses that they are selecting.[/QUOTE=

I have no idea why they call them Handicapping contests ,they are nothing but a lottery.

[Zman179]

Why pick horses you won't bet in real life? If you dont like it enough to place a real money wager, why pick it in the contest?

Because the name of the game isn't to turn a profit or to pick winners, it is to have the highest bankroll, and to do so you have to pick longshots.

The NHC Day 1 leader, Brian Troop, was incredibly hot yesterday. After playing 15 races, he picked winners paying $21.60, $25.40, $24.80, $39.60, $26.40, $8. He also ran second with a 20-1 shot. I don't know about you, but that seems like an abnormally high ratio of longshot picking to me (don't get me wrong, he did fantastic yesterday.)

He pretty much sums up what handicapping contests are all about when he said, "I'll be cheering for the 9-5 horses, but I won't be playing them, that's for sure. They can't catch me with 9-5's, but they can catch me with 20-1's."

[Zman179]

I must say that it looks like Mr. Troop is one of the cheap-seaters.

http://www.drf.com/nhc/2009/nhc.html

[rrpic6]

Way too much whining about seat assignments! I'm no expert, but I've played in the Orleans Tournaments a few times, before they got ridiculous, letting in 700 people, as well as one at the Suncoast some years back. They both used ballrooms with round table seating, so there was little privacy there. I was at the Red Rocks sports book a few years ago, and its ok. No big deal about distance to get to a teller. I'd say most of these guys really don't need a TV, just a watch, as its important to write down the post times of your potential bets and of course, the mandatory ones. There are enough big screens around to see if the odds are not to your liking as post time approaches.

RR

[bpiets]

The point is that ALL the contestants should have an even level playing 'field'.....so the casino should NOT be HOST to the final contest but a LOCAL track should do so ( or the casino should 'rent' the 'space' for same )... so that all have the above...lol...and since the contest is today they should list all the race tracks and the 8 manditory races some where on-line' so's 'we' can / may' 'play-along'...lol...

[RichieP]

since the contest is today they should list all the race tracks and the 8 mandatory races so's 'we' can / may' 'play-along'...lol...

Here you go:
Aqueduct, Race 8
Fairgrounds, Race 8
Golden Gate, Race 6
Gulfstream, Race 4
Gulfstream, Race 5
Gulfstream, Race 7
Santa Anita, Race 6
Santa Anita, Race 8

[bpiets]

Here you go:
Aqueduct, Race 8
Fairgrounds, Race 8
Golden Gate, Race 6
Gulfstream, Race 4
Gulfstream, Race 5
Gulfstream, Race 7
Santa Anita, Race 6
Santa Anita, Race 8

...ThankYou....so the remaining races must be from the tracks mentioned above 'i' assume....thanks again...( so now over to drf 'i' go for a 'look-see'...lol..)...

[bpiets]

...ThankYou....so the remaining races must be from the tracks mentioned above 'i' assume....thanks again...( so now over to drf 'i' go for a 'look-see'...lol..)...

Aquaduct..race 8...no.2....barb. roberts 'nag'....7- for a long shot...
Fair Grounds....race 8.....no.1....4-for a long shot
Golden Gate....race 6.....no.1.....2-for a long shot
GulfStream......race 4.....no.7.....5-for a long shot
....."""""...........race 5.....no.8.....2-for a long shot
....."""""...........race 7.....no.5....flying spur...( hard to go against )...3-as a longshot
Santa Anita......race 6.....no.11.......5-for a long shot
...""......"".........race8.....no.9..........4-for a long shot
....note all these 4 year old & up races...lol......give all those in the contests that have been 'around' for smae amount of years at the tracks an OVERVIEW of POSSIBLES / SENTIMENTAL 'FAVORITE'...but at the very least an 'insight' of what each 'nag' in each race has done.....lol...

[bpiets]

...and for the 7 'free' selections....lol...
santa anita...race 1....1-carnival queen...no.7 if sch.
""""""""" ...race 4.....5-euroglide....no.3 if sch.
""""""""" ...race 9.....6-fort sumter.....no.4 if sch.
Gulfstream...race 6.....3-marching tune....no.1 if sch
""""""""" ...race 10...7-fearless eagle....no.1 if sch.
Aqua............race 4.....2-eirie's run.....no.7 if sch.
Golden Gate.race 5.....9-eisenhiem....no.5 if sch....<<< long shot time...lol..
....so that's 15 races...lol................................'i' 'am' going to the track to bet a few of those 'i' listed...mostly in triactors...exactors...lol...3 'nags' in each...but note many of the m /l/ favorites iat each of the tracks mentioned should do well...or at least 'lose' near the finish line when 'they' do...lol...

[InsideThePylons-MW]

They did post my comment and he responded. They did trim mine down to not include the part about how seat selection was determined:"

I asked him if he thought it was unfair and how the seats were determined too.

I guess he didn't want to answer those tough questions.

[bpiets]

IMHO, they both seem more like the Hooters Tour. :D

'Turf'n'Sport'...'you're' HERE too...!!!!!.....nice to 'see' a 'familiar' ....lol... :cool:

[Stillriledup]

Way too much whining about seat assignments! I'm no expert, but I've played in the Orleans Tournaments a few times, before they got ridiculous, letting in 700 people, as well as one at the Suncoast some years back. They both used ballrooms with round table seating, so there was little privacy there. I was at the Red Rocks sports book a few years ago, and its ok. No big deal about distance to get to a teller. I'd say most of these guys really don't need a TV, just a watch, as its important to write down the post times of your potential bets and of course, the mandatory ones. There are enough big screens around to see if the odds are not to your liking as post time approaches.

RR


The problem is it seems like the Red Rock has changed their story about who gets premier seats and who does not. The friend of the OP was under one impression from the previous year and then got a different story this year.

Also, this is very important, big money is at stake, you want to take every advantage that you can get.

[David-LV]

I guess it really doesn't matter where you sit or stand even if they put you in the toilet, because when it is your day nothing else really matter.

This is a quote that comes from a player in the Red Rock contest.

"A couple of notes for what was a truly amazing contest. Three of the four top players on the leader board, including Brian, Bob and Russell Weber, were sitting about 5 feet from each other - in the cheap seats. So much for the idea that you need a carrel with a TV to do well in this thing."

________
David-LV

[toetoe]

Congratulations to aged mare Elaine Kowaleski, resident of Berkeley and 23rd -place finisher this weekend. :jump: .






Mrs. Kowaleski is not a member of any public groups.

[Stillriledup]

I guess it really doesn't matter where you sit or stand even if they put you in the toilet, because when it is your day nothing else really matter.

This is a quote that comes from a player in the Red Rock contest.

"A couple of notes for what was a truly amazing contest. Three of the four top players on the leader board, including Brian, Bob and Russell Weber, were sitting about 5 feet from each other - in the cheap seats. So much for the idea that you need a carrel with a TV to do well in this thing."

________
David-LV


Too small of a sample to mean anything. Toss a few hundred million trials into a big computer and you'll see that the better seated people will do better in the longest of long runs. This is too short of a run to matter.

[rrpic6]

Too small of a sample to mean anything. Toss a few hundred million trials into a big computer and you'll see that the better seated people will do better in the longest of long runs. This is too short of a run to matter.

Now that really makes no sense. Sounds like "girls who wear glasses never get passes". More realistically, if you put this same group together for 50 two day tourneys, I'd bet you'd have 48 or 49 different winners.

RR

[Zman179]

Now that really makes no sense. Sounds like "girls who wear glasses never get passes". More realistically, if you put this same group together for 50 two day tourneys, I'd bet you'd have 48 or 49 different winners.

RR

I think you'd get 50 different winners. The NHC is nothing more than to determine which dog is about to have his/her day.

[Zman179]

Congratulations to aged mare Elaine Kowaleski, resident of Berkeley and 23rd -place finisher this weekend.

She actually finished 5th.

[rrpic6]

I think you'd get 50 different winners. The NHC is nothing more than to determine which dog is about to have his/her day.

In its present form you are somewhat correct. The 300 people the madatory races, the capping at 20-1 Win, 10-1 Place makes for a little excitement and a little control of freakish results.

If I were King of NHC/NTRA I'd do it this way. Keep the same qualifying rules. Limit the final World Series to 333 people. Reward these handicappers with 30K each for making it to Vegas (a million bucks which is close to the present total purse). Each contestant gets 2 debit cards for 15K. One is used for exotic bets, the other for win/place bets. The 15 races a day including mandatory races still exist, except players must bet $500 in any way win/place, which goes directly into the track that was wagered pools. All other win/place bets must also total $500. The debit card is now used up. 30 times 500 equals 15,000. The exotic debit card is the wild card. I'd probably spend my 15K on a Pick 6. Any exactas, tris, supers, etc. are in. Once the 30K was spent, the winner is determined by how much profit they showed, of course keeping that money. The top 10 get trophies and are invited to the Eclipse Awards the next year.

Now you have a Handicapper and Horseplayer of the year!

RR

[toetoe]

If it's even possible, the 23rd finisher and her husband are my friends without my knowledge of their last name, even. The name is not Kowaleski, as I posted.

My problem, besides being clue-challenged, is that I depended upon Twinspires and the hardhitting Jill Byrne ... :sleeping: , :sleeping: ... for my information. While she was chatting up geniuses such as Mr. Conte and Mr. Watchmaker, I could just make out the Top Ten leaderboard, and I jumped to a conclusion whilst carrying an onerous misconception.

Okay, so who finished where ? Here's the "news" from Twinspires:

"Congratulations to Brian Troop Barry, Onatrio (sic) ...

Conratulations also go out to Robert Gregory, Judy Raydo and Sam Decicco, who all finished top 15, and all qualified through Twinspires' 25-seat Guarantee Tournament [isn't that special ? Ooh !].

Congratulations also to Brisnet.com's Rich Nilsen, 29th place [etc., blah blah].



This is what Allen Ginsburg once called being caught in flagrante bl _ _ - jobbo. Where's the news, Miss Byrne ? :ThmbDown: .

[InsideThePylons-MW]

If I were King of NHC/NTRA I'd do it this way. Keep the same qualifying rules. Limit the final World Series to 333 people. Reward these handicappers with 30K each for making it to Vegas (a million bucks which is close to the present total purse). Each contestant gets 2 debit cards for 15K.

That's why you are not King.

But then again, your proposal fits the main criteria of the people in charge of racing.....so maybe they would go with your idea and make you king.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Disturbing that it happened for the 2nd year in a row.

[Light]

Let me clarify what toetoe is saying. He is referring to me and my friends who were a team at this contest. My "friends" are a husband and wife team. The name under 23rd place is the wife's name.

After the first day we were in 10th place. You can see her name on the leaderboard in the first of the Jill Byrne video's for day 1.I never thought we would do that good,but my goal was to make $100 the first day. We ended up with $121 after the first day. Brian Troop was unbelievably ahead of everyone with around $221. I then watched a video of him on Twinspires with Jill Byrne after the first day and he said he was going to get up at 3 A.M and start studying for day 2. So I go up at 6. A.M to start. BTW,I had picked 2/3rds of our bankroll up to that point. We split the workload. I took FG,Lrl, Aqu and OP. But I also had to reference the mandatory races for the other tracks and corroborate on the optional races at those tracks I was not assigned to do. This is not something I thought would be a factor in this contest but as I found out it is a HUGE factor.

I did not go to Vegas,the husband and wife team did. I decided I would be more useful having my desktop computer with my homemade computer program and all my files handy rather than expend my energy in airplanes,hotels and tranportation. I communicated with the husband over the phone. But his cell phone kept dropping the calls and we had to call eachother numerous times and half the time I couldn't understand what he was saying due to static, so it was hard to discuss the races.

I saw this thread and I asked him if his wife was sitting at a desk with a television. He said yes,(and she is a nobody to the casinos) but that there are television monitors everywhere as you can also see by the Jill Byrne video's.

Day2 was a disaster for us in my opinion. They scratched 3 of my tracks that I was assigned to,and now I had to switch gears and you really are pressed for time in day2 because you cannot prepare a few days ahead of time as in day 1. My friend started to freak,saying we are running out of optional races to play and I should be looking at this or that race at SA and GG.Then he'd call me again on a phone that was garbled and cut out. We were getting nowhere. He finally switched to a wired phone from the room,but now the quality of picking horses was gone. He would say,what about this one,what about that one. Then he said,"you know I'm fishing,right?". I said "I know". I was getting a headache and losing interest.

The interesting thing I noticed was the leader,Brian Troop,hardly had increased his total level,just like us. He ended with only a $30 or so increase in his totals for day2. I noticed Richard Goodall from HTR make a big run towards the end of the day to come within $14 or so of our total. But he also ended up only adding $6 to his final bankroll on day 2. I had been very interested in a $37 horse at GG on day2 but changed my mind when I saw the trainer is 1-50. A no-no is a go-go in these type of contest but I passed and when the horse came in I realized,I'm burnt out. Making dumb mistakes.

That is one major lesson I learned from this contest: Burnout. Even the winner said after day1,that these contests are stressful. I think one reason we did so well was because 2 heads are better than one when you have such a large workload. Plus discussing the races out in the open is better than just in your head after you've done about 20 of them

I'm not really that pleased with our result. I thought we had a big shot to finish in the top 3. But maybe you need this kind of experience to finally hit the big one. I just watched a TVG interview with Briane Troop and he said that he was in this contest last year and finished 13th. But on the last bet last year,he had a choice between 2 horses and had he picked the other one he would have finished 2nd which is a difference of almost $150,000. So I think experience paid off for him this time and is a major underrated factor in these contest.

[Donnie]

In the future, anyone who wishes to follow the tournament you may want to check out either DRF.com or twinspires.com....

This link was posted on the HTR board the night before the contest http://www.drf.com/promotions/email/mailing_nhc_012810-2.html

I personally don't think it affected too many people's play by not being in one of the "better" seats... the monitors are huge at The Red Rock, so EVERYONE could immediately see the same information. If you think you got privacy in one of the carrels...hahahahaha!! You have no clue! I came down with a MAJOR head cold the day before Day One. I sniffled, sneezed, coughed, hacked, blew my nose, sneezed some more, blew my nose again....I was the kind of person I hate sitting next to. I felt terrible...for the people on either side of me!

The Red Rock staff did an EXCELLENT job in making sure that everyone who needed electricity got it. The staff not only bent over backwards for you, they came around again to make sure everything was working as a contestant expected. They even set up betting windows behind the back seating area so the people "all the way in the back" (hahahahaha) could just turn around and take a few steps backward to get their bets in. The hosts were on top of all post time changes as the races progressed and informed the crowd to potential post time changes for the mandatory races.

They handled the Saturday cancellations as best they could and when one track';s mandatory race was lost, they simply opted to switch from 8 mandatories/7 optionals to 7 mandies/8 optionals....definitely the right call. They anticipated bad weather for a few of the contests tracks and omitted them as potential mandatories.

Personally I was very impressed with the way the tournament was run. The management was very receptive to feedback and very quick to make it as easy as possible for all players. The seating arrangment was related to me in this way in an email from Michelle Ravencraft a week before we flew out:

Here is how seating will work.

1st place finishers in tournaments, tour members or not, will get first priority seating (“computer lottery” generated).

Next priority will be ALL Tour members no matter how you finished in tournament (“computer lottery”)

Next all rest of contestants (computer lottery).

Call me silly, but I think this is a fair way to work the seating arrangements. I think if you actually won a tournament, you should get some preference over someone who won a seat out of 15 given away in one contest; maybe especially over that 15th qualifier.

The wife and I had a GREAT time. She spent her days in the spa, which was part of the reservations as well. Everyone was treated with HUGE amounts of respect. I cannot encourage you enough....try to get qualified, which ever form fits your style, the trip alone is well worth it!

[Donnie]

Light--
although you got frustrated and burned out, congrats! But that IS the nature of tournaments. It sounds like you played well with all of the distractions and roadblocks jumping up in your way!
Regarding experience, I suspect you will work the kinks out of your communications next year (try IM-ing instead of phoning). But this was Bob Gregory's (2nd place finisher) first NHC Championship experince. He uses HTR as well. Bob has grown over the past year as a tournament player, and he intimated to me after the banquet last night that he made the mistake at the beginning of trying to use his day-to-day approach in tournaments. He has now adjusted that approach and it really paid off for him this weekend. He is one of the nicest guys you would ever meet! I am very happy for him. He earned that 2nd place finish thru hard work and perservance. I think you will continue to see his name in the standings. But his experience came from multiple contests over this past year. It all adds up!
BOL!

[Ian Meyers]

I finished 3rd (as part of a team) in the 2006 NHC Finals. We were in contention to win until the very end. We ended up splitting $75k, but had we finished with $10 less our prize would have fallen to $25k; $25 less and we would have gotten zip. I think that year they only paid top 20.

Although the end result was OK I thought it was way too random, and not worth the grief and decided I would never do another contest. JMHO.

[toetoe]

Congrats to Terry Toczynski, 22nd runner-up. ;) . Yeah, baby.





Mrs. Toczinsky is not a member of any public groups.

[toetoe]

You corroborator, Sir.



Hey, to tell the truth ... that Troop guy ? He sucks !!! ;) .

[Stillriledup]

I finished 3rd (as part of a team) in the 2006 NHC Finals. We were in contention to win until the very end. We ended up splitting $75k, but had we finished with $10 less our prize would have fallen to $25k; $25 less and we would have gotten zip. I think that year they only paid top 20.

Although the end result was OK I thought it was way too random, and not worth the grief and decided I would never do another contest. JMHO.

Its random and there's so much luck involved because of it only being 2 days. Even the best players can have a bad 2 days, there should be a better way to work this contest to take at least some of the luck out of it and make it more of an actual handicapping contest and not a contest where people are just stabbing at 20-1 shots hoping its their day.

[rrpic6]

That's why you are not King.

But then again, your proposal fits the main criteria of the people in charge of racing.....so maybe they would go with your idea and make you king.

My idea of having a guaranteed extra Million bucks bet at Red Rocks does suck. Red Rocks, the NTRA, Gulfstream, etc. would be the only ones for it. Not the guy that can't get into 30th place to win $1000? My idea gives all 333 people a chance to pocket some cash! How much of that 500K do you think the winner put thru the machines in 2 days?

If your lucky number was 6 and you like to watch Gulfstream, Saturday could have been a big day for a tourney player.
http://drf.com/static/results/30/rGP30.html?rn=196468

RR

[BIG HIT]

Have a question never been to the contest have only played online free contest no prize money and one trk.But the guy that won the half million was on the phone talking to tvg guy. What puzzled me in conversation was he said used only drf if that true i have to think he is very good.As alot of guy's have computer's and are very astute handicapper's in there own right that being said the contest is about price and even in real life handicapping you need value to be a winner. As luck go we all need some.I'am longshot player so you may have good days and your fair share of bad lol How come htr or the home growin program of any kind givein the good program's and very good hdcr's that use them not have the horse's he did.
I'am not slamming anybody or program just asking how it could happen.The guy's on pa board are very sharp and program are great tools.?

[turfnsport]

Have a question never been to the contest have only played online free contest no prize money and one trk.But the guy that won the half million was on the phone talking to tvg guy. What puzzled me in conversation was he said used only drf if that true i have to think he is very good.As alot of guy's have computer's and are very astute handicapper's in there own right that being said the contest is about price and even in real life handicapping you need value to be a winner. As luck go we all need some.I'am longshot player so you may have good days and your fair share of bad lol How come htr or the home growin program of any kind givein the good program's and very good hdcr's that use them not have the horse's he did.
I'am not slamming anybody or program just asking how it could happen.The guy's on pa board are very sharp and program are great tools.?

30 races is too small a sample...My dog could beat me, HTR, RDDS, etc over a 30 race sequence on occasion. Stretch that out to 100, 200 or 500 races, and my dog would have no shot, and would be back licking himself.

[BIG HIT]

Is that 10 race or 30 race those horse were there for everybody to choose.The contest i won was at hol only 1 trk out of all people think was 4 or 5 hunderd people that day i was winner had 2 longshots and one medium price horse another finished thrid 3 other times no where.What the deal is you have everything with your program's to break down a race with trainer angle's pace spd jky that other people plus skill don't know how many longshots he had that won.And if remenber correctly he was useing fundmental stuff.He just thought more of chance for a win then the other guys.
TurfnSport people say mutal's are getting lower on horse every day i see $20.00 and up mutals you have had them i use to fig average day at least two double digits a day horse's one of those paying $20.00. Curious thing we all look at but few see it and win.Personaly nobody with boxie program won as longshot is what it for.? If any of them entered my self used pro pace simple and helped a lot lost prgm when got new computer and decided as a few of you know spent more time learnig then playing horse went back to pen and pencil

[Donnie]

BigHit--
all computer-based programs are tools and everybody uses the same tool different ways. Ever use the end of a screwdriver to pound a brad back into a wall because you didn't want to run out to the garage to get the hammer? Same thing. Brian Troop's tool is The DRF. Mine is HTR.

I caught that $167 horse on my entry not by stabbing, but by liking what the program told me, IF you read between the lines; and that is what has to be done in these contests to get the large mutuels.

Two other HTR users also had that horse ($167)....second placer Bob Gregory, and Paul Parker who finished 30th overall.

I was sicker than a dog on Fri, but played, hitting only $8. Came back Saturday feeling much better; although Friday night was considering just dropping out, due to my poor play and the cold/flu that was making me hurt all over the day before. I went into Saturday shooting for Day Money. Hit my first 2 out of 3 optionals, started feeling much better, then nailed that $167 bomb. I was not price shopping. My strategy the entire day was to grind out a total that would put me into the Day Money. That horse fit a "profile" I look for...the 80-1 was just an unbelievable gift from the public.

Regarding sample size, I guess a person could point to the continued success of HTR players and say it's the real deal for longshots. From Ken on his board:

In the last 5 years HTR players have finished 3rd or better 4 of 5 years

1st (1) Goodall 2008
2nd (2) Gregory 2010, Massa 2007
3rd (1) Moser 2006

Lots and lots of other top 30 placings during that period as well.

Total cash out for HTR Subscribers at the NHC during this 5yr period =

nearly $1 million dollars

Our group represents barely 1/10% of the commercial handicapping marketshare and yet have pulled in more than 20% of the available cash from the NHC in the last 5 years.

You need to now add Bob Gregory to the top of that list.

[Light]

BH

Whether you are looking at a printed DRF form or a computer printout,it's still the user that makes the final decision.

Donnie

I continue to be impressed by HTR users. If I didn't have my own computer program,that would be my choice.

As far as this argument about the contest being "a stab at longshots",this is not true. There are longshots in every race and most don't win so it takes some intelligence to select the ones that do win from a limited number of plays. Furthermore,isn't this the more profitable way to play in normal everyday handicapping if you are a win player? Do the math. If you hit 3 chalk in 10 races (30% hit rate) averaging 2-1,you'd have $18,a $2 loss. If you hit 2 very modest longshots in 10 races (20% hit rate) averaging 5-1, you'd have $24. A $4 profit.

[Donnie]

Oops...looks like Ken already had Bob on the list!

Light--
The only caveat I would have about the "stab at longshots" is: as the contest winds down, that is the strategy that must be employed. But Bob is a good contest player and he totally understands the strength of value over number of winners. He had 2 $100+ days back to back, if I remember properly. 15 picks of win/place = $60 bankroll each day. To have a 60%+ ROI each day is what is needed in the contest. Brian Troop had a phenominal run on Day One. And he was the first to say in his interview he personally knew 20 contestants who could do what he did on any given day. He did enough to hold off the others on Day Two, but it was nowhere near his consistentcy of Day One. He also pointed out, "I haven't won a dime yet". He knew he was the target and he knew someone would be playing ALL 30-1's and above for the entire Day Two. When the 80-1 hit I am sure that probably shook him up pretty good. Brian did not have a horse over $25 the first day, I believe. Now, a quarter of the way into Day Two, a cap horse hits. That negated 2 of his previous day winners....people started to move on him.

I also agree with you that there are live longshots in just about every race. The approach I take is in which races are the others actually weaker than they appear on paper?

And I agree, the day to day player has to ask for value on the board. Without it you lose.

[BIG HIT]

You guys are right donnie light what i meant no matter what it will come down to knowledge and price.Not surprized at htr sucess in the contest donnie glad it been doing so well over years.
Don't know ken m dozen't win read alot of his article on web site they are helpful and great thanks guys for your insight

[InsideThePylons-MW]

If I were King of NHC/NTRA I'd do it this way. Keep the same qualifying rules. Limit the final World Series to 333 people. Reward these handicappers with 30K each for making it to Vegas (a million bucks which is close to the present total purse). Each contestant gets 2 debit cards for 15K. One is used for exotic bets, the other for win/place bets. The 15 races a day including mandatory races still exist, except players must bet $500 in any way win/place, which goes directly into the track that was wagered pools. All other win/place bets must also total $500. The debit card is now used up. 30 times 500 equals 15,000.


That's why you are not King.

But then again, your proposal fits the main criteria of the people in charge of racing.....so maybe they would go with your idea and make you king.


My idea of having a guaranteed extra Million bucks bet at Red Rocks does suck. Red Rocks, the NTRA, Gulfstream, etc. would be the only ones for it. Not the guy that can't get into 30th place to win $1000? My idea gives all 333 people a chance to pocket some cash! How much of that 500K do you think the winner put thru the machines in 2 days?

Obviously you are having a slight problem for a second time understanding that 333 X $30,000 is not $1 million.

You are only off by $9 million. That's why you would be an insta-hire for a top level racing position....maybe King as you suggested.

Scary that you, or nobody else who read your proposal, figured out you were only off by a measly $9 million.

[toetoe]

Pretty proud of myself. On the NTRA site's front page, I found an article, "Troop hangs on ..." or some such pith, and sure enough, it had a link to --- wait for it --- the 2010 N.H.C. final standings. :jump: .

[bcgreg]

Hello Everyone:

My name is Robert Gregory. I finished 2nd at the Red Rock this past weekend. I just discovered this thread and I want to post my feelings about a couple items mentioned here...

There are a lot of opinions expressed here about the Tour...good and bad. The NTRA recently conducted a survey regarding the Tour and the NHC. Over 3,000 players responded. Here is a link to the questions asked and the responses:

http://www.ntra.com/content/NHC_Survey_Final_Summary_Results.pdf

Mike Mayo, the Chairman of the Players Committee also sent out a letter with his comments on the results and on other issues. Here is his letter:

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/MayoLetter.pdf

I hope that the above will at least answer some of your questions. One point I feel worth placing emphasis upon is the fact that the Players Committee is made up of 13 "Players" who donate their time and efforts to improving the Tour. Chairman Mike Mayo is a good man...and a "player".

Is it perfect? Not by a long shot! Is anything?

A lot of discussion here regarding the seating at the NHC. Mr. Mayo's letter addresses this issue. The survey results by 3,000 respondents indicated a preference for racebook-type venues by 2 to 1! Why?

The NHC was only the 3rd tournament that I have played in. The other 2 were in "Ballrooms". I MUCH prefer racebooks! Ballrooms are for, well...Balls!

By the way, I was in the "cheap seats". And so was Brian Troop (the winner). And so was Russell Weber (6th place). If I ever am lucky enough to qualify for another NHC, I sure hope I am unlucky enough to sit in the "cheap seats" again. I much prefer using my time to handicap than switching through 7 TV channels!

There have been comments to the effect that these type of tournaments are just "long shot stabbing" contests. Maybe that is the way some play but not this player. I got 6 hours sleep total in the 2 nights prior to the contest days and I promise my time was not spent on "bed play". Maybe I would have won if it had been. :lol:

I hit 7 winners and 1 place over the 2 days and 30 races. Taking out the 80-1 horse, my plays averaged approximately $19 win and $9 place. Personally, I do not consider a $19 win horse a "long shot".

And about that 80-1 at GP race #3...what do YOU think the fair odds are for a horse that is:

2nd time starter
Dropping from MSW to MCL
2nd in Workout Rating
2nd in Pedigree Rating
Moving from Dirt Route to Turf Route and Pedigree Rating jumps 46 points
Trainer is ONLY 6 for 18 in Turf Routes and ONLY 7 for 14 when moving horse from Dirt to Turf AND Trainer is going with one of his "go to" jocks!

Is this horse a "stab". Well, these are the kind of "stabs" I make every day, tournament or no tournament.

Donnie...thank you for your kind words. You are a gentleman and a scholar and I am so happy to know you. You have been a tremendous help to me since the first day we met in 2006 and I will not forget this. Good luck to you in 2010. I hope we both make it to the "cheap seats"!

Regards,
Robert (Bob) Gregory

[bcgreg]

I hit 7 winners and 1 place over the 2 days and 30 races. Taking out the 80-1 horse, my plays averaged approximately $19 win and $9 place.

Correction to the above...I had one race not listed on my play sheets:

I hit 8 winners and 1 place...Avg Win was $16.83 and avg Place was $8.20...these are once again excluding the 80-1.

Regards,
Bob Gregory

[andymays]

Correction to the above...I had one race not listed on my play sheets:

I hit 8 winners and 1 place...Avg Win was $16.83 and avg Place was $8.20...these are once again excluding the 80-1.

Regards,
Bob Gregory


Good Job at the tournament and good job explaining the conditions. :ThmbUp:

[Donnie]

Re: the 80-1 shot =

we both read the exact same stats on the horse and to me (as to you as well) this horse was nothing but a TOTAL miss by the public. He was exactly what a tournament player looks for in a playable horse. And he was the furthest thing from a "stab". As I earlier posted, he was a total blessing from an odds stand point.

Congrats again on a well played tournament, Bob!

[the little guy]

First of all, congrats on an amazing job.

I also think it should be pointed out, and I imagine Mr. Gregory would agree, the 80:1 shot while being a great bet to cash, was not a theoretically " great " tournament play anyway, as who is happy when they get only $42 for a $160+ winner. Obviously it helped him cash for a lot more, but I highly doubt he went into the tournament thinking " let me stab with some huge longshots that are worth 25% of their win mutual in the contest. "

Tremendous job.

[Moyers Pond]

The NTRA contest is a sham because it requires mandatory races for over half the picks. Absolutely ridiculous.

You want a real contest go to the Orleans. No mandatory picks. No only playing 1 horse per race, and it is over 3 days.

Any contest you can win money is great, but let's stop calling this thing a national handicapping championship. It is a championship of people with a ton of free time to play in silly qualifiers week after week until they qualify. It is a contest of silly mandatory races. It is sort of ridiculous.

Go to the Orleans. Pay your $1000 and you are in. You are not at a disadvantage to people who play in qualifier after qualifier because they have much more free time than most people should have. Play any races you want, not some $5000 claimer race at Golden Gate that some idiot at the NTRA picked out.

[bcgreg]

First of all, congrats on an amazing job.

I also think it should be pointed out, and I imagine Mr. Gregory would agree, the 80:1 shot while being a great bet to cash, was not a theoretically " great " tournament play anyway, as who is happy when they get only $42 for a $160+ winner. Obviously it helped him cash for a lot more, but I highly doubt he went into the tournament thinking " let me stab with some huge longshots that are worth 25% of their win mutual in the contest. "

Tremendous job.

the little guy,

You are correct!

I had it on my play sheet as a play at 15-1 or better. I was amazed when the odds went to 80-1! My other 7 hits averaged right at $17 for win.

Regards,
Robert Gregory

[Donnie]

Andy-
you bring up a point that I personally struggle with in a contest = reality is maybe 2% of this type of horse wins, when based on their tote odds. So informed contest players sit there wondering "Do I put 6% of my total daily play on too many horses who realisticly only hit 2% of the time in real life?" Every bullet counts. When you only have 15 bullets per day in a contest, you seriously cannot be shooting at 20-1's and up too often. So you are very accurate in that, with caps in place in this type of contest (20-1 to win, 10-1 to place), a player will not be playing a whole lot of these horses unless there is a high confidence level towards that horse; at least not early on in the card. Keep in mind this was only race 3 at GP...there was a LOT of day left at this particular time. As the day progresses and you start to spin your wheels, the 30-1 and up longshots become easier to digest. I believe this is why there were only a handful of players who actually backed this horse at this time of the day. It was not yet time to start stabbing. Too early.

In a non-capped contest, this horse woulda been worth 230 points alone. We very likely woulda seen a lot of different players near the top standings, but Bob woulda still been there because of his excellent play and his conviction on this horse that simply escaped the public.

Value minded players, in my opinion, can still have a mental ceiling (or "cap" if you prefer) that they carry into the contests as well. I feel there is a feeling of too much value from a selection. Read that as "too good to be true" type mentality. I had it. And it cost me the World Series last year. Instead of playing my convictions on Day Three, I sat on my hands as a $20 horse romped home early, followed by a $30 horse that I liked, followed by a 17-1 that I actually did play. But these 3 horses were in the first hour and a half of the contest, and I thought it was too good to be true. Wrong. I was taught to save my bullets. See what others around you are doing. Wrong. Play your convictions. And when the gift horse is handed to you (Dreamed To Dream), accept it as what it is = a gift.

[bcgreg]

Any contest you can win money is great, but let's stop calling this thing a national handicapping championship. It is a championship of people with a ton of free time to play in silly qualifiers week after week until they qualify. It is a contest of silly mandatory races. It is sort of ridiculous.

I have 200 employees, most between the ages of 16 to 25. Free time! Are you kidding me!!! :lol:

And BTW, I wish they were ALL mandatory! That would be the true test of handicapping skill...not choose your own familiar circuit, or distance or class or surface. Regardless, I will be at the New Orleans tournament...maybe we can have a beer and discuss this further. Hell, first one is on me. :)

Regards,
Robert Gregory

[Donnie]

Posted by MoyersPond:

It is a championship of people with a ton of free time to play in silly qualifiers week after week until they qualify. It is a contest of silly mandatory races. It is sort of ridiculous.

I believe 151 of the 302 participants qualified for the first time this year. 4 of the 5 qualifiers sitting at our table at the banquet were first time qualifiers. I don't believe any of the 5 of us chased the qualifications around the country. You are using a pretty broad brush to paint an entire group. Yes there are people who chase the qualification, but the money they spend doing this goes into the final prize fund. So God bless 'em. If you re-read Bob's post, this was only his 3rd tournament, so I am sure he is very appreciative of those who have the time to travel.

I know this may shock you, but MANY of the "travellers" fell down the list of Finalists, and here is why: when you travel and play MANY tournaments, many times you buy as many entries as that tournament will allow. But in the Finals you get one choice in each race and you have one entry on which to play. The shotgun approach is taken away from you. It now comes down to having a little skill involved as well as the luck that is ALWAYS needed. But now it's not a case of "which horse do I assign to which ticket?".

Personally, I believe the mandatories are the "equalizers"...everybody has to play them, so "how good are you at this type of race". If we all have to play the same races at different points in time, then our strengthes should lie in the optionals. How fair is it to a turf master when all of the turf races for a weekend are pulled from the turf? How fair is it to a fast dirt sprint handicapper when it rains? Do we always see the best handicappers win? No. racing is not held in a vacuum. Contests should not either. This reminds me of the arguments of Zen vs. Rachel. They each have their strengthes and weaknesses; they each had their pros and cons for HOY. We do the best we can.

I wish you well at the World Series in 2 weeks! That is where you should be able to battle well.

[JimG]

I also think it should be pointed out, and I imagine Mr. Gregory would agree, the 80:1 shot while being a great bet to cash, was not a theoretically " great " tournament play anyway, as who is happy when they get only $42 for a $160+ winner. Obviously it helped him cash for a lot more, but I highly doubt he went into the tournament thinking " let me stab with some huge longshots that are worth 25% of their win mutual in the contest. "



Hi tlg,

Actually it is a very good tournament play if you like the horse because many of the other players in the tournament will pass due to the logical reasons cited by you that I quoted above. Landing on a cap horse that few if any others in the room play is the ultimate for a tournament player. Even with the maximum tournament payout of 20-1 to win and 10-1 to place. A play like that can separate the winners from the also rans and BobG is proof of that.

Jim

[mountainman]

What puzzled me in conversation was he said used only drf if that true i have to think he is very good.As alot of guy's have computer's and are very astute handicapper's in there own right

In my opinion, there is a fine line between tool and crutch as each applies to handicapping. At one extreme end of the spectrum might be trip or bias notes made from personal observation, at the other end perhaps the sort of commercially circulated class ratings that entrance players possessing no real understanding of the game. And somewhere in between, lies the grey area that most modern handicappers inhabit.

Randy Moss once wrote an illuminating article recounting his initial experience at tournament play. It was his impression that many of the participants relied heavily on systems and computer-generated ratings. Moss felt that this more mechanical approach to handicapping enabled players to be better prepared and more organized amidst tournament chaos. Free- form handicappers, on the other hand, with less cut and dried methods, continued grappling with past performances during time crucially needed to stay abreast of odds and post times.

Does this mean that successful tournament players are robots with no real knack for the art of handicapping? Of course not. Then does it indicate that players with the sort of comprehensive approach perhaps unsuited to tournaments know less than the computer set? Probably not. Tool? Crutch? You be the judge.

[Bettowin]

No comments on the "team" approach? Do teams working off the same entry not have a significant advantage over individuals? My common sense would tell me yes but I have never played a tournament yet. Really don't know if I would want to go against a team of players but then again how would you regulate it?

[Donnie]

Bet-
Teams usually split the tracks to save time on analysis. But you have to trust the teammates to be good 'cappers. I know of more than one team that has dissolved because of friction among the decisions made by various team members when others would have picked a different horse. Ken and I have split a ticket before, but he allowed me to quarterback the entire ticket. We finished 5th in the Summer Classic at the Gold Coast. We discussed various horses but he always allowed my opinion to be the final say. Worked out wonderfully.

I can see where 2 sets of eyes watching the toteboards would be a huge advantage as well. One of the biggest mistakes a player will make in a tournament is when a race goes off, and you had a horse whose odds you wanted to watch leading into that race, but you totally missed it. More than once I missed a good horse simply because I got tied up doing something else. I have adapted over time. Once I put a pick in, I move on to the next race. I don't even watch the race I just put a pick into, unless there is plenty of time before the next post time. Too many times as well I end up missing a race because I got interested in watching how my horse is doing while the next one is almost loading into the gate. Time management is crucial!!

That extra set of eyes is also very helpful as the scheduled post times start to deviate from the actual post times. What times you have listed on your tracking sheet suddenly flips upside down on you. That second set of eyes helps ensure you don't miss any of the races - mandatory or not.

[Donnie]

Mountainman wrote:

Randy Moss once wrote an illuminating article recounting his initial experience at tournament play. It was his impression that many of the participants relied heavily on systems and computer-generated ratings. Moss felt that this more mechanical approach to handicapping enabled players to be better prepared and more organized amidst tournament chaos. Free- form handicappers, on the other hand, with less cut and dried methods, continued grappling with past performances during time crucially needed to stay abreast of odds and post times.

Does this mean that successful tournament players are robots with no real knack for the art of handicapping? Of course not. Then does it indicate that players with the sort of comprehensive approach perhaps unsuited to tournaments know less than the computer set? Probably not. Tool? Crutch? You be the judge.

Personal opinion, but I think the person who can do both succesfully will become excellent tournament players. I use Access to organize the data into a format I can better understand. But I am not dependant on the cold numbers. They help "guide" me to proper contenders. I then free-form it from there.

One of the beautiful things about this type of approach is that I can quickly scratch out horses as needed and immediately rerun my reports. The new numbers may "guide" me to a totally different set of contenders. But I still free-form it from there.

[Bettowin]

Bet-
Teams usually split the tracks to save time on analysis. But you have to trust the teammates to be good 'cappers. I know of more than one team that has dissolved because of friction among the decisions made by various team members when others would have picked a different horse. Ken and I have split a ticket before, but he allowed me to quarterback the entire ticket. We finished 5th in the Summer Classic at the Gold Coast. We discussed various horses but he always allowed my opinion to be the final say. Worked out wonderfully.

I can see where 2 sets of eyes watching the toteboards would be a huge advantage as well. One of the biggest mistakes a player will make in a tournament is when a race goes off, and you had a horse whose odds you wanted to watch leading into that race, but you totally missed it. More than once I missed a good horse simply because I got tied up doing something else. I have adapted over time. Once I put a pick in, I move on to the next race. I don't even watch the race I just put a pick into, unless there is plenty of time before the next post time. Too many times as well I end up missing a race because I got interested in watching how my horse is doing while the next one is almost loading into the gate. Time management is crucial!!

That extra set of eyes is also very helpful as the scheduled post times start to deviate from the actual post times. What times you have listed on your tracking sheet suddenly flips upside down on you. That second set of eyes helps ensure you don't miss any of the races - mandatory or not.


Thanks for the response. I guess team playing is common. I would have thought it would be frowned upon just for the reasons you state and the advantages over single players. Guess I don't now of many contests billed as individual contests that allow teams to participate. Why don't they list the entire team on the final standings? Can you list more than one person on the entry?

[Donnie]

In most contests it is frowned upon, but it is tough to enforce.

Actually, the better contest players don't mind. You are just as able to talk someone off a horse as you are to talk them onto a horse. This is why many teams go with the choice of the person whose job it was to disect a specific race or races.

Also, the teamates sometimes don't understand the directions given by another team member. Communication can sometimes become real bungled in the middle of the entire process. And if someone mucks up, the whole team gets PO'd. And that's cool, because you really need to turn your emotions off.

I've seen before where a team member didn't get the team's pick in before the race was run. He got sidetracked talking to another player and missed the entry deadline.

If you stand down over the opinions of the other team members, and then your horse wins, but it was not the group choice, what do you think is going on inside that person's mind? Being the ego-driven game that it is, there are just as many disadvantages as there are advantages.

At the NHC they do not allow you to switch seats with others. But this does not discourage players conferring with one another during the tournament. I doubt you could ever take it to that level.

[toetoe]

Hello Everyone:

....


Regards,
Robert (Bob) Gregory








Welcome, Mr. G., and well done. :ThmbUp: .

[Stillriledup]

Thanks for the response. I guess team playing is common. I would have thought it would be frowned upon just for the reasons you state and the advantages over single players. Guess I don't now of many contests billed as individual contests that allow teams to participate. Why don't they list the entire team on the final standings? Can you list more than one person on the entry?

Just check the names in the list of participants and see who shares the same last name. Good chance they're sharing picks and info and in even some cases, one of the 'relatives' is just a 'beard' who knows nothing about racing and is just being 'fed' selections by someone who does know the game.

[Donnie]

I can tell you the Goodalls and the Wagners are actually husband and wife independant players. They each handicap and come up with their own plays. If you look at players from the World Series, John and Barb Buckley are also very good independant players, while being husband and wife. All six of these people are very good players in their own right.

[bcgreg]

Thank you Toetoe!

It was quite the experience for me.

Regards,
Robert Gregory

[PaceAdvantage]

Hello Everyone:

My name is Robert Gregory. I finished 2nd at the Red Rock this past weekend. I just discovered this thread and I want to post my feelings about a couple items mentioned here...Awesome job Bob! Congrats!

[Bobzilla]

Two years ago I had a television and never turned it on. I finished 9th. This year I used it and finished, I think, 165th. Red Rock Resort and Spa offered complimentary massages to players this year during the tournament which I continually declined and found the constant offers a bit of a distraction. At one point during the tournament both players on each side of me were getting worked on and I had to leave my seat as there was so much going on within my personal space I couldn't concentrate. Maybe I should have accepted and had some blood pumped to my brain because I was absolutely awful this year. The most complaints I heard from other contestants was when Aqueduct cancelled after R3 on day 2. Many of the contestants feel that March would be a better month as to decrease the possibilities of cancellations. Some players made their feelings known to members of the players' committee. We were without Oaklawn both days. As for Tampa Bay, I didn't even know the track had been replaced by Laurel until Donnie explained it to me a week before. So much for all the Tampa Bay studying. Not knowing which tracks were going to be running and what the actual surface conditions were going to be made it tough to prepare.

bcgreg, great tounament and congrats!!

[bcgreg]

PA...TYVM!

Robert Gregory

[Light]

Two years ago I had a television and never turned it on. I finished 9th. This year I used it and finished, I think, 165th. Red Rock Resort and Spa offered complimentary massages to players this year during the tournament which I continually declined and found the constant offers a bit of a distraction. At one point during the tournament both players on each side of me were getting worked on and I had to leave my seat as there was so much going on within my personal space I couldn't concentrate. Maybe I should have accepted and had some blood pumped to my brain because I was absolutely awful this year. The most complaints I heard from other contestants was when Aqueduct cancelled after R3 on day 2. Many of the contestants feel that March would be a better month as to decrease the possibilities of cancellations. Some players made their feelings known to members of the players' committee. We were without Oaklawn both days. As for Tampa Bay, I didn't even know the track had been replaced by Laurel until Donnie explained it to me a week before. So much for all the Tampa Bay studying. Not knowing which tracks were going to be running and what the actual surface conditions were going to be made it tough to prepare.

bcgreg, great tounament and congrats!!

I hear what you're saying. I think all players go through things like that,and I think in order to win, besides being a good capper ,you must be in the right space in mind, body and spirit.

Look at Joe Conte. Last years champ finished with only $40. Brian Troop only made $32 his second day. I think this has more to do with their mental state rather than their ability. The second day we made numerous mistakes. We changed our minds at the last minute on a $37 winner. A $30 place horse. A $17 place horse. These are the type of horses we did play on day 1. Plus I think there is the element of luck involved to a certain degree. The first day my 5-1 at Lrl got dq'd while barely touching a fading horse while winning by 3. We lost on a 22-1 shot by a neck. We got nosed out of a 7-1 shot because the jock took the overland while the other stayed inside. I could go on making excuses for our performance but the bottom line is that there is more to it besides just being a good capper. And I dont think if I play this contest next year,the lessons from this year by themselves will be enough to put us on top. We still have to put the whole package together. Your A game must be there,you must have a clear mental state and the breaks have to go your way.

[cato]

Wow, this thread may set a record for the huighest number of complaints about an event that's actually great for horseplayers (among other things, a chance to win $500,000).

I did not see if anyone ever addressed the seating issue but it was PRINTED IN THE RULES that seatng priority would be given to NHC tour finish and then NHC members. Not sure how it went after that but seriously if anyone is suggesting they were in a bad place and disadvantaged becuase they were not seated in the main part of the sports book or did not have a TV... I mean that's just sad.

While I was seated in the main part of the sports book (proud NHC tour member) my tv never worked. While I made an effort to get RR to fix it, it was clear that it was going to take up way too much time and energy (and probably never happen) so rather than waste time and energy in complaining, I focused my energy on the task at hand.

For those of you who are interested in doing something positive, do what you can to support the NHC Tour and the NHC -- its one of the few things that supports and is focused on the horseplayer.

Cheers, Cato

[bcgreg]

For those of you who are interested in doing something positive, do what you can to support the NHC Tour and the NHC -- its one of the few things that supports and is focused on the horseplayer.

Cheers, Cato

Agree Cato! And HANA too!

bcgreg

[njcurveball]

Wow, this thread may set a record for the huighest number of complaints about an event that's actually great for horseplayers (among other things, a chance to win $500,000).



Thanks for typing what most are thinking. :ThmbUp:

I find tournament complaints are the most narcisstic comments anywhere. Seems like if Horseplayers were golfers they would want the entire course tailored to their strengths.

The players who have won the NHC and finished high in the standings are the best of the best.

I enjoyed listening to an interview with the winner where he said that on the 2nd day he specifically played longshots to make sure if one of those horses won, they would not catch him with it. Most would not have had the guts to do that and played favorite after favorite praying no one would catch them.

I have never had a chance to win 500,000 and doubt I will with the money I bet. Yet, I can put up a couple hundred and on my best day get a roll in Vegas for this huge amount. There is no downside to that. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Wow, this thread may set a record for the huighest number of complaints about an event that's actually great for horseplayers (among other things, a chance to win $500,000).

I did not see if anyone ever addressed the seating issue but it was PRINTED IN THE RULES that seatng priority would be given to NHC tour finish and then NHC members. Not sure how it went after that but seriously if anyone is suggesting they were in a bad place and disadvantaged becuase they were not seated in the main part of the sports book or did not have a TV... I mean that's just sad.

While I was seated in the main part of the sports book (proud NHC tour member) my tv never worked. While I made an effort to get RR to fix it, it was clear that it was going to take up way too much time and energy (and probably never happen) so rather than waste time and energy in complaining, I focused my energy on the task at hand.

For those of you who are interested in doing something positive, do what you can to support the NHC Tour and the NHC -- its one of the few things that supports and is focused on the horseplayer.

Cheers, Cato


NHC is a great thing, but why stand pat, why not try and get better?

[Light]

The players who have won the NHC and finished high in the standings are the best of the best.


I disagree. I think alot (and I mean alot) of players can win this contest. This contest proves nothing. It's just who is in the right place at the right time within themselves and the races they play. I really thought I was going up against sharks when I went into this contest. I was not impressed. I personally know one of the first winners of this contest and I think his everyday handicapping is subpar. All I can say is he got hot around the contest period. As handicappers we all have form cycles, just like horses.

What happened to Conte, Goodall, Rippey, and other former champions? Give me a break. I dont say this as sore loser as I did get a cash prize in this one and beat every other former champion and I'm like in last place in an online contest on this board. So do I suck or am I really good? It's neither. Its all relative. I think Troop said it well in his first interview,that he knows alot of players who can earn $200 in a day. Don't get me wrong. I'm not against this contest and I think they should have more of them. But as far as proving one's ability it is such a short snippet in a handicappers life that whether you do well or not,is negligile as far as longterm ability. It's fun and exciting (besides nerve racking) but don't get misled by idolizing the winners. A winner today is a loser tomorrow.A loser today is a champion tomorrow. The universe is not static.There's only one reason this contest is glamorized: The prize money. And that's where I draw the line.

[the little guy]

I'm shocked that Light wasn't impressed.

[Bobzilla]

For those of you who are interested in doing something positive, do what you can to support the NHC Tour and the NHC -- its one of the few things that supports and is focused on the horseplayer.

Cheers, Cato

I agree. Some of the most fun I've had as a horse player has been while participating in tournaments over the years and this would include participation in the NTRA tour over the last two years. Not only is it a great way to compete for sizeable cash prizes but it's also a great way to meet other people and make friends with those who share a passion for horse racing. I've often been surprised by some of the negative commentary I've seen in regard to these tournaments. An example would be what I've seen on some of Mr. Waldrop's NTRA blogs that have addressed the NTRA tour/ NHC. Though I'm sure there are areas that can be improved upon I do think that organizers, as well as members of the players' committee, are making every effort to hear out suggestions and concerns that players may have.

My sense is that tournaments are becoming increasingly recognized as one of racing's true positives and may very well prove to be an avenue that can attract more interest in horse racing. I share your desire to see increased support of the NTRA Tour / NHC and hope more people who love to handicap and play the horses will consider getting more involved in this truly fun way to enjoy the game.

[Stillriledup]

I disagree. I think alot (and I mean alot) of players can win this contest. This contest proves nothing. It's just who is in the right place at the right time within themselves and the races they play. I really thought I was going up against sharks when I went into this contest. I was not impressed. I personally know one of the first winners of this contest and I think his everyday handicapping is subpar. All I can say is he got hot around the contest period. As handicappers we all have form cycles, just like horses.

What happened to Conte, Goodall, Rippey, and other former champions? Give me a break. I dont say this as sore loser as I did get a cash prize in this one and beat every other former champion and I'm like in last place in an online contest on this board. So do I suck or am I really good? It's neither. Its all relative. I think Troop said it well in his first interview,that he knows alot of players who can earn $200 in a day. Don't get me wrong. I'm not against this contest and I think they should have more of them. But as far as proving one's ability it is such a short snippet in a handicappers life that whether you do well or not,is negligile as far as longterm ability. It's fun and exciting (besides nerve racking) but don't get misled by idolizing the winners. A winner today is a loser tomorrow.A loser today is a champion tomorrow. The universe is not static.There's only one reason this contest is glamorized: The prize money. And that's where I draw the line.


I agree with you. I was in the NTRA finals a bunch of years ago and went in there all cocky and came out the other end blaming the 'short run' and thinking that there was more luck involved than skill. If this was a year long tournament, i would be more comfortable with losing. The feeling i had was that the shortness of this 'handicapping' competition turned it into drawing straws. I do like the 'super bowl' feel and even though a lot of luck is involved because of the short run effect, it does end up being somewhat of a skill competition....you just have to find a way to pick the winning horses and if you do, you deserve to win under the rules setforth.

I would be more interested in these competitions if they had more of a long run aspect to them. If they had a contest that lasted 1 year (lets say there was a contest every weekend, 52 weekends, 104 days, Saturday and Sunday) and at the end of the year, you add up the bankrolls and the biggest bankroll is the winner. If the contest was 104 days, people would be more likely to select 5-2 shots who look great on paper instead of stabbing at 20-1 shots that have nothing to do with real handicapping. This would make it more of an actual handicapping contest and the winner would really have to be good to win because lucky players would eventually get weeded out. You won't be able to win this contest being an average handicapper who had one hot weekend.

When you say "do i suck or am i good" my idea of the yearlong contest would truly crown the best handicapper, the handicapper of the year would actually be the best handicapper and not someone who had a hot weekend.

If we want to find out who's the best, we lengthen the contest. Maybe 1 year is excessive, but a one month contest is totally within the realm of possibility.

[post time]

Just got back from the contest area and it's just like I thought......

An unfair advantage of epic proportions.

TV's, electrical outlets, comfortable plush chairs, side-walled work stations for privacy and noise reduction, proper lighting and an easy walk to the selection windows.

vs.

Back of room madhouse, no privacy, tables that are only about 18 inches deep, a maze to get in and out of the back section, uncomfortable chairs, a noisy active bar right behind you, average lighting.....just a zoo in the back with a huge number of non-contestants between the front/good section and the back/bad section.

Penthouse vs Outhouse

It was worse than I thought.

I would absolutely let them know how unfair it was and get barred if I got stuck back there.

If you asked 100 people where they would rather sit, it would be 100-0 up front in the TV seats.

If you asked 100 people who sat one day in the TV seats and 1 day in the back seats, it would be 100-0 that sitting in the back is a huge disadvantage.

How can the NTRA and DRF be so moronic and not see how this is unfair?
give me a form and would sit in the bathroom for a chance to win 500,000

[cato]

Responding to a couple of posts...I agree with most of what has been said recently.

It is a matter of luck, skill, nerves, concentration, decision making and time management. But a lot of luck. So is every sporting event.

It's a short term measure of performance. Same as sports and/or just about every competitive event. We don't remember much who had the best regular season (long-term) record in football, baseball, basketball, etc. , but who won the final game (short term measure).

It is not a measure of who is the best handicapper -- it is who scored the most points in that two day period. That's it. They are called Handicapper of the Year but they are really handicapper of the 2 day tournament that awards $500,000.

The long term measure in this business is (i) officially the NHC Tour which covers a year and takes your 5 best scores and yes this can be manipulated a little if someone wants to go to a bunch of tournaments but they still have to perform, and (ii) unofficially by the money you win. It's more of a self measuring game and always has been.

Candidly (probably becuase I have a short term attention span) I don't follow the desire to design a long term seemingly never ending tournament with the goal of identifying the BEST HANDICAPPER ON THE PLANET. That would be too long and nerve racking for me.

Having gone to some of these tournmanents (in person and on-line) I see hundreds if not thousands of people (most of who are on this board) who, given a good couple of days, could win any of the tournaments. SO I proclaim evreyone whodesrves it as among the BEST HANDICAPPERS ON THE PLANET...now let's go see who wins the money!

Cheers, Cato

[Bobzilla]

As much can go wrong during the running of any race to hurt one's chances of scoring it's true that luck does have to be on your side. But I think it needs to be remembered that to have the kind of numbers produced by NHC winners (while having approx. 135 races to consider at seven different tracks and only 15 plays per day) then it undoubtably requires a high degree of handicapping accumen in the first place to position oneself to take advantage of whatever luck was coming their way over the two day contest. I'll agree with LIGHT insofar as there were others amongst the 302 that could have won if it had simply been their two days along the eternal plane of handicapping time, but I don't agree that everyone in that race book over those two days possessed the ability to put themselves in that position. At least when you win this thing you prove you're one of the ones who can. Brian Troop won because he's a top level handicapper to begin with who made more right decisions than anyone else over those two days. He deserves it as did the ten who won before him.

[bcgreg]

Brian Troop won because he's a top level handicapper to begin with who made more right decisions than anyone else over those two days. He deserves it as did the ten who won before him.

Absolutely agree with this!

Regards,
bcgreg

[maxwell]

Even Troop said he felt like he slid in through the back door. But he struck when the iron was hot, and that was the difference. And that's all that really matters.

[skate]

Pile on with the NEGATORIES and then complain load enough for the media, then read up on all the invented neer do wells.

cry cry cry

Hey hey hey now,why not start your own tourney, rent a few TVs and bingo.
As a mater of fact, why not start your own Bingo Tourney?

:(

[Donnie]

For me, personally, I thought it was a wonderful, positive experience. I can't wait to get qualified for next year!!! :jump:

[toetoe]

Most would not have had the guts to do that and played favorite after favorite praying no one would catch them.





I find Curvaceous One very disrespectful to "most" of his handicapping brethren, accusing "most" of gutlessness. :ThmbDown: .

Gosh, a man playing longshots in a tournament. My hero. :kiss: .

[njcurveball]

I find Curvaceous One very disrespectful to "most" of his handicapping brethren, accusing "most" of gutlessness. :ThmbDown: .

Gosh, a man playing longshots in a tournament. My hero. :kiss: .

Don't really know if you play a lot of tournaments, but my experience which dates back to the World Series held at Penn National in the late 70s is that when someone gets a big lead they play favorite after favorite trying for "easy money".

It is also my experience with cash money tournaments that the late races are filled with very large place and show bets on favorites.

The gentlemen who won showed a lot of guts that I have not seen with other players in his position.

Perhaps you have a different experience, but I can tell you from mine, less than 5% of players would have had the guts to pick longshots in that position.

Who knows, maybe next year you will have big lead and do the exact same thing. I wish you the best.

Jim

[Stillriledup]

Pile on with the NEGATORIES and then complain load enough for the media, then read up on all the invented neer do wells.

cry cry cry

Hey hey hey now,why not start your own tourney, rent a few TVs and bingo.
As a mater of fact, why not start your own Bingo Tourney?

:(

I think plenty here would run their own tourney's if it was legal.

[Bobzilla]

For me, personally, I thought it was a wonderful, positive experience. I can't wait to get qualified for next year!!! :jump:


I'll second that one. Even when one's results are disappointing it's still a whole lot of fun to experience the excitement first hand, not to mention the feeling of accomplishment of having qualified in the first place. Here's hoping you're able to get back out to the Rock in 2011. Best of luck Donnie.

[Donnie]

Likewise Bob! If we both qualify, first drink is on me!

[skate]

I think plenty here would run their own tourney's if it was legal.

oh that's a good one

[Stillriledup]

oh that's a good one

Thanks.