SPX.x forks

[Racehorse]

here is a short sample of the manner in which I use Andrews Pitchforks in charting the emini for my trading.

as the emini S&P only has a life span of three months, and I like to take a longer term look, the SPX.x index reflects the value of each emini over quite a length of time.

of course, there is a very slight difference in the valuations, as each emini contains some value of premium over the cash, but, for the charting, it serves the purpose nicely.

I have posted three successive SPX.x charts ..
longest term is done on a Daily time frame
mid term is done using 379 and 144 periods
and the short term is drawn up with a 21 period base

I'll be glad to attempt to answer any questions ...

I'm not online all the time, so, if I don't respond immediately, I will as soon as I check in here

horse


http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/index.php

to observe the charts this lind should take you to MyChart home page ..
scroll down to find Racehorse Charting
and
clik on the symbol

[Dave Schwartz]

Racehorse,

WHat are you charting?

Dave

[Racehorse]

Andrews Pitchforks is a technical analysis method of charting

I learned to use the forks about 50 years ago from my Dad.... at that time I was a young and carefree youth barely into being a teenager ....ggggg

I'd done some small degree of discussion with PA on another thread, and had told him I'd post up some forks at which he could look

the emini is what I trade ..... an electronic 1/5 of a full contract
and
the SPX.x is the cash index S&P 500

so, I use the SPX.x for charting a looksee at time ranges of longer than a month or so

the forks provide "mutable" lines of supply and resistance as opposed to "static" fixed points of sup and res

make any sense?

horse

[Dave Schwartz]

Yes, I got that but WHAT is in the horse racing charts?

The price of winners? The effectiveness of last race final time? WHAT?

[PaceAdvantage]

Earth to Dave.....this is Off Topic section....

We're talking stocks here....LOL

[PaceAdvantage]

Racehorse,

I will check out your charts tonight....looking forward to it....

[Dave Schwartz]

PA,

Even the ones about Belmont Park?

Dave

[Racehorse]

I'm not at one of my computers where I have the charting/copying/pasting program available so I can't post a new one right now to the MyChart site.

however, the FOMC yesterday afternoon caused enough of a drop to kill all the forks I had drawn on the three I posted.

I have observed, and put to use over a lengthy period of time, the fact that FA overpowers TA in the short run... and this is definitely illustrated by the FA action on the market of yesterday.

I keep close track of all major announcements and attempt to remove any positions from being in play around that time.

due to the highly leveraged feature of the emini it is self preservation which guides my actions there .... ggggg

I know of two traders of passing acquaintance who were wiped out when Greenspan made the unannounced move of the major drop in overnight rates a while back ...
and
the emini is especially prone to sudden running of the stops which can cause severe depletion of monies in ones account

all in all, I find the forks to be helpful TO ME ....

I'll draw a couple later today and post them

horse

[Suff]

Those of us that are old enough to remember a 15% PRIME RATE and 22% Inflation rate during the Carter Administration should be dumbfounded by the FEDS latest CUT.

1% ....? They're giving money away.

"To good to be true" keeps repeating itself in my head.



Sumthin aint right at HQ's.

Next Month they'll be paying people to invest into this economy.


I see a repeat of the 86 tax repeal. Double and triple Depreciation scales on investment in capital equipment.

[Racehorse]

PA====

I've posted three new charts for anyone who wishes to peek -------


Sufferindowns ======
and, as to your resoning, it is fine and I can tell serves you well

but

I purposefully don't attempt to factor ANY fundamental analysis into my trading ....

a complete technical outlook is my pattern ....

thus the charts I use show the path for ME, rather than trying to import a lot of good information into my feeble brain, assimilate it, attempt to make sense of it, and THEN try to implement it into a course of action to increase my account ...

hey ... I'm not smart enough

so, I just retreat into a mathematical universe replete with charts and figures and NO words ....
that is what it takes for me .... I'm NOT trying to convert anyone from their reliance on FA ....
for me .. TA is it

just as in horse racing .....
and I know this is a sore subject and causes much fuss and bother ....
I rely only on figures .....

my limitations are such that when I start to "think"
I go wrong ...... ggggggg

so, rightly or wrongly, I've done this over an extended period of time on horse and market .....

figures figures figures

[Racehorse]

as I don't mean to make light of your comments
and
I, too, recall all toooooo well the Carter days
and
rampant inflating prices and interest

however, this time and place in the current dilemma of our country I fear DEflation much more than inflation

deflation is an eco killer of huge proportions
whereas
inflation is much more comfortable for most folks

current debt load of the public is unsustainable
so
lower rates and printing more money is the only answer that doesn't intail extreme hardship on the people

that is NOT to say that I feel that this is correct, I just feel that this is what will continue to happen ... for a while ....

deflation will destroy us
inflation and the current actions will only harm us


you mentioned double and triple depreciation ...
were I still in business, I would've purchased early this year a couple of brand new Suburbans .. one for me and one for my wife .....
instead of having to make do with the three year old one and the eight year old one we have ...
now, she does have a "spare" lil car which she drives all the time .... es300 .... and it is four years old and just turned over 30k on our last trip to Austin this past weekend ..... LOL

as the depreciation schedule available for "heavy trucks" allowed a full write off in a year .....
and the Sub, due to gvw it possesses falls into that catagory ...
I have a bud who lives a few houses away from me buy a new Hummer for his roofing business ....
now .. he needs a Humvie about like I need three Suburbans .... LOL


oh well
as I said
figures and charts ...... that is my area .... lol

horse

[Suff]

No problem. I was just Piping in because I follow Political and economic news. Part news Junkie. Part used to work in the biz. Had my 6, 7, 22 and 63 back in my youngin days.

Used to throw a 1/2 pound of Gel in my Hair....tuck my WSJ under my arm and strut through Boston's Financial district like the next Gordon Gecko. The biz zigged, I zagged. Now I pound dirt.

I enjoy your stuff. Thanks for taking time to share it.

[Suff]

BTw are you talking about your TSAN's charts? The S&P500 charts that you put up on Monday? Or your Snappa Charts that went up Wed? Am I correct in assummming your snappa chart is a Comptuer Index chart? Thats whats I get from $COMPX.

I did'nt see any newer charts?

[Racehorse]

the URL hotlink I provided will take you to the MyCharts area of TTrader

you need to scroll down to the R section of the alphabetical listings
and
locate
Racehorse Charting

I currently have six charts on the SPX.x posted ..
three from yesterday and three for today

the guy who runs the website is very kind to have provided free chart posting for a bunch of us .... anyone can join and use it

but
he does make the request that one not hotlink directly to the charts as that ties up his webspace/demand
and
he does request that one take down (remove) outdated charts to keep from hogging bandwidth ...

so I only have six up right now

see if you can find my charts under Racehorse Charting for right now all I have posted is SPX.x .... no comp or other symbols

here is the entire index area for everyone .. and there are a lot of posters doing lotsa different symbols and different things with them .. interesting to take a look at some different things/aspects/outllooks
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/index.php

you'll need to scroll down to RacehorseCharting to find mine

and here is a direct URL to mine

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display_album.php?id=621

horse

[Suff]

oh...I was reading everyone's charts. oops. Thought they were all yours. I see the directions now, at the bottom of your orginal post. I never read the Bottom paragraph of any post.

I'm to smart for that.

[Racehorse]

I just posted another chart ...
and see that I'd incorrectly identified a time on the previous chart ...
I said "noon today" when it should've been noon tomorrow (Friday)_

sorry bout that ...

but there are some unusual aspects to my use of time/price ...

I don't know of too many folks *(do correspond with a couple of them) who do "time forks" ..
the most common use is simple resistance and support levels ....

and ..
needless to say .. I'm NOT attempting to sway anyone to invest using my work ....

it is for entertainment purposes only ......

horse

[Racehorse]

I do read stuff, even tho I don't factor it into my trading the emini too much, as I'm a verrrrrrrry short term trader ....

this just came and I thought I'd post it


DAILY FINANCIAL MARKET COMMENT

06/26/03
Goldman Sachs Economics

* The FOMC's decision on Wednesday to cut its federal funds rate target by only 25 basis
points was a risky one. It runs counter to the Fed staff's own conclusion from the
Japanese experience that monetary policy should act early and aggressively if deflation is
a risk. It also may put some of the recent easing in financial conditions at risk. In our
view, this easing has given the Fed its best shot at a period of above-trend growth, which
is needed to close the output gap and stabilize core inflation.

* As the Fed's half-hearted move may prove insufficient, we tentatively maintain our
forecast of a 0.75% federal funds rate by the end of the third quarter. However, this
forecast is highly data-dependent.

* Now that the rate decision has been taken, we are closing our recommendation to be
long the July 2003 fed funds futures contract at Wednesday's closing price of 99.005.
The Fed's 25-Basis-Point Move: Half-Hearted and Risky
The Federal Open Market Committee opted to reduce its federal funds rate target by only
25 basis points on Wednesday. The decision was contrary to our expectation of a
50-basis-point cut, and it triggered one dissent from San Francisco Fed President Parry
(who was in favor of larger step). The statement explaining the decision emphasized
scattered signs that the economy was improving. It also indicated confidence that
economic growth would pick up to a 'sustainable' rate, but noted that the risk of an
unwelcome decline in inflation outweighed those of an unwelcome rise. There was no
discussion of 'non- conventional' monetary policy tools, as expected.
The decision to cut rates only modestly may be understandable given the widespread
expectation that growth will improve in coming quarters -- which we share -- and likely
concerns among FOMC members that conventional monetary policy might run out of
room to cut further. That said, there are several reasons why it is a risky one.
First, the FOMC leaned heavily on signs of economic improvement that, to date, are still
quite difficult to discern in the hard data. In particular, the evidence for the 'firming in
spending' cited in the statement seems to be confined to an increase in core retail sales
during May that was barely sufficient to put spending back on the slow-growth track that
prevailed before a sharp weakening in April. So this rationale for a go-slow policy is a
weak one at best.
Second, it is unclear what a 25-basis-point cut really accomplishes. If it had occurred
soon after the November 6, 2002 cut, it may have been seen as part of a 75-basis-point
package. As a free-standing cut with no clear indication that further easing is to follow,
one may well view it as a 'lowest common denominator' decision that will have little real
impact.
Third, the Fed staff's conclusion from the Japanese experience in the 1990s was that,
when faced with deflation risks, monetary policy should ease early and aggressively.

[Dick Schmidt]

Racehorse,

Very interesting thread. Funny how we both trade the same instrument and yet I can't make sense out of your charts at all. Obviously I don't use pitchforks, and have no idea how to make or interpret them. Guess I better dig out my copy of Murphy on TA and see what's what.

Personally I've become enamored of Japanese Candlestick charts and find them exceptional at calling turns in the market. Their weak point is forecasting the duration of a move. When I handicap, I always try to find two factors that confirm one another without overlapping. I have been looking for a complement to candlesticks now for a while and haven't come up with anything that is both complementary and yet not based on the same price data. It would appear that your pitchforks may be something that I can blend into my TA.

Thanks for bringing a new (to me) technology to my attention. Any sites you can recommend that would shed additional light on the subject would be appreciated.

Dick

[Racehorse]

Dick ...

so you use candles, eh?

my attempts over the years of "reading candles" has achieved the same result as if I'd been "reading BY candles" ...

hanging dojis and exploding bozos led me the same place --- utter chaos in my trades ...... heh heh heh

one difficulty I had is ---- I would fail miserbly to properly interpret them AFTER the fact, much less as a forcasting tool before the event....
so, I left the world of sticks many years ago to the more adept folks with reasoning ablilites exceeding my grasp

now forks, that is another story

I guess I llike them, and have liked them since Dad taught me thier function long ago, for the simple reason that there is precious little deductive powers required in implementation

here are a couple of sites that might assist you

I know a couple of folks who've taken this email course and have found it useful http://www.pitchforkprimer.com/
and the other site melds in some other philosophies with the forks http://www.medianline.com/
I know several folks who follow Tim and his theories

on other outlooks, I've tried and failed to incorporate Gann's wave due to my feeble intellect along with Murrey math leaving me in the dark

fib numbers make a good example ---- absolute numerical value --- no room for "fudging" ... I use them all the time, along with the forks ....
my typical trading screen has over fifty windows running streaming charts of various parameters and time frames and is still waaaaaaaay to much subject to MY intrepretations .... I want and am trying to find a mech system .. both in horses and market ....
long time looking and most likely will prove to be as elusive as the Holy Grail .....
but, I do enjoy the search ..... gggggggg

my search for making profit has led me to many doorsteps and I seem to favor the simple ones that demand no guessing .. similar to my simplistic handicapping ....

take a look at those two sites and see if some light is shed for you

horse

[Dick Schmidt]

Racehorse,

Dojis, engulfing patterns and dark cloud cover are my meat and potatoes. I love the 'sticks. I think one of the reasons I feel at home with candlesticks is that they respond to the same pattern recognition skills I honed at the races.

Thanks for the sites, I'll check them out this weekend. Maybe they can help me make some sense out of today's market. The candlestick signals got me in yesterday at 972 and out today at 985, so I did OK, but that is not what I was expecting at all. Oh well, 13 points is a nice hit. I just wish I had some way of predicting turns so I didn't have to sit and watch the market for hours at a time. Spoiled, I guess.

Anyway, thanks again, and may the pitchforks point your way.

Dick

P.S. If you are truly looking for an automatic method of trading, I have a friend who swears by Larry Williams' stuff. Claims his software gives clear, automatic buy signals with clearly defined exit points and with a little backfitting and testing he is hitting over 70% of his trades. People on this board would faint if they saw Larry's prices (Trade Navagator software $2,500, data and exchange fees $2-300 a month, seminars $5,000) but my buddy tells me he paid for all of this in 6 weeks trading one contract of the full S+P. I like my way of going, but I may have to look into this.

[Racehorse]

LOL

I know two people who've paid those high prices you mentinoed.

as you say .. folks here on PA will have a fit when they read how much ......

LOL

actually, I know three ...
this one lady took the course at full price....
she became SO enamored that she decided to take her thirtyplus son ..
AND
her broker .......

yep .. her broker got to attend for free, as he promised to only use the information he was taught to "help" his lady client and her son in their trading ....

as I had trained the broker somewhat in a few TA matters, and used his firm some, too, he gave me all the books, phamplets, etc

Dick ...
not to break my arm patting myself on the back, but I'm a lot better than Larry .... heh heh heh heh

actually, the broker and I found nearly nothing of us to us ... now, I doubt not that your friend is doing well with the program ... I know of , but not personally, two more gents who've taken the course and trade in that manner ....

the risk/reward ratio is waaaaaaaaay too high for me....
and his method of taking losses makes for too great a drawdown for me to use.

thanks for mentioning it, though

and I'm really serious about the mech system of trading ...
I've two in the final stages ....
no need to go into my stuff tho .. it is too "strange" for normal folks tastes ....

and, it sounds like bragging ... and I shall NOT do that ....

I've been at this (trading and horses) in a serious manner for a long time ...
the year I sold my buisness, close to twenty years ago I atteneded OP 50+ of the 57 day season and the same year LaD for over 100 of thier 125 day season ....
made more money than I had the last year I owned my small business *(17 employees) ...
but
it was TOO HARD .. gave me no chance for a life ...
entailed 16 hour days ... and next to no way to take a day off ...
recall now, that was in the days before highpower computers ...
I was running a RadioShack TRS80 ... before I bot an IBM 8086 .... LOL

and I bought my first equity when I was 13yr old .. back in 1954 with part of my first paycheck from working in my dad's company.

and I'm still searching for the mech system in both ...

have gotten a lot further down the road than I used to be .. but a ways yet to go .... gggggg

hope you enjoy the forks sites

horse

[Dick Schmidt]

Horse,

Thanks for the info. I sent you a private e-mail, but I find that the e-mail functions on this board are less than reliable. I think we all ought to refuse to pay PA's monthly fee until he fixes this. Oh, wait, he doesn't have any . . . Nevermind. (PA, this really isn't a complaint, but I do hear from people who tell me they sent me e-mail that I never got. Just an observation.)

Anyway, I ordered the first lesson on pitchforks just today and am waiting to get started. Hope you don't mind if I ask a few questions once in a while. Let me know if I can help test anything (a sly request asking to be included in your research!).

I agree completely on how much work it is handicapping professionally. I used to average a 14 hour day, and much of that was incredibly boring. I do hate record keeping, though I hate losing even more, so I do it. Surprising that the famously difficult and stressful commodity trading would be so much more relaxing! Especially with so much more money involved.

I've been resisting Williams as too mechanical and also for not taking advantage of longer trends, but I've got to admit than anyone who can take $10,000 in a publicly traded contest to $2,500,000 in eight months has something going. Of course, he then took the 2.5 mil to $800,000, then back to $1.25 mil in the remaining four months of the contest, so your comments about drawdown are well warranted. Think I'll keep looking for a bit.

Thanks again.

Dick

[PaceAdvantage]

Dumb question regarding e-mail:

The address with which you originally registered on this board is still the address you check for new PA e-mails, correct?


BTW, I just sent you a test e-mail...did you get it?

[Dick Schmidt]

PA,

Haven't changed a thing and yes, I did get your test. I also heard from a couple of guys who had sent me e-mail and never got a reply because I never received it. I wonder if this board's software has a bug. Or maybe my ISP has trouble with messages from a board or considers them spam or whatever.

Of course, it could be just a losing (e-mail) streak. The internet does eat a small percentage of messages, though I'm sure it's still more reliable than the post office. Anyway, just thought I'd mention it in case people thought I was ignoring them.

Dick