When do you decide to stop betting?

[mwilding1981]

I assume that a lot of you use multiple methods of finding selections depending on race type, track etc...... I was wondering what different methods people use to determine when a particular strategy is no longer working quite right and needs closer monitoring and when you decide to stop using it all together? What is it that allows you to make this decision?

[Jackal]

I stop betting anytime I feel my confidence is rattled. Everyone has times when they feel like they can't buy a winner. Be honest with yourself when you are trying determine, "am I on top of my game?"

[mwilding1981]

I do that at the moment Jackal but I was wondering if you use a particular way of analysing if a certain strategy is no longer performing as it should for whatever reason. Would you use the fact that is going outside of an estimate variance level for longer than a certain period of time or some other solution?

[only11]

I stop betting when i have no more money :lol:

[Robert Goren]

I call it a day when ever after a race was run I think "Boy, was that DUMB!".

[windoor]

Thought I jump in here with a quote from a previous thread.

"I started with a $4000 bank, or two 100-bet banks. Seem excessive for just a $20 win bet, but history has taught me to treat it like a business with plenty of capitol if things turn sour for a time. If I lose 50 of the first bank at any time, I re-evaluate what I’m doing, just to make sure I have been following the rules as I should. It’s easy to get cocky when things are going well. If I have a losing quarter (three months), then I stop completely and re-run everything and tweak as needed. This is very time consuming."

Regards,

Windoor

[mwilding1981]

Thanks for the replies. Windoor do you just use 1 strategy for finding selections? I have many strategies for finding selections depending on the race conditions and horse types in the race. How would you separate when one is starting to perform poorly and re-adjust? I may, in fact almost certainly, still be making a profit overall but what threshold do you use to determine one area isn't working any more?

[Greyfox]

1. I play only the last half of a card.

2. I play only one circuit, getting to know the nuances of trainers and jockeys.

3. Eventhough a dozen screens are bringing in tracks, when that track's card is over, I stop - win, lose, or draw.

4. Horse racing is like surfing. There is always another big wave coming tomorrow if I didn't catch a good breaker today.

[markgoldie]

Stop betting when:

(1) You can't explain the results you are witnessing out on the track.

(2) Your bankroll is becoming so low that you cannot cover the combinations you wish to cover in gimmicks, or you are unable to wager on preferred WPS selections in your normal manner (which hopefully includes variable bet sizes depending on perceived value).

(3) You begin to deviate from your normal playing style in that you are either (a) increasing bets or (b) playing races that you would not normally play in order to recover losses.

(4) You are upset to the degree that you are not thinking clearly in handicapping.

(5) You begin snapping at your significant other.

(6) Your BP meds are no longer keeping you at 120/80.

(7) You begin re-evaluating your life and nothing seems worthwhile.

(8) The phrase "The living will envy the dead" starts making complete sense.

(9) You start downloading harness programs from Trackmaster.

(10) You get an inexplicable desire to enter a gun shop.

[Robert Goren]

(9) You start downloading harness programs from Trackmaster.

(10) You get an inexplicable desire to enter a gun shop.It has been my experience that #9 usually leads to #10.;)

[HUSKER55]

Nice touch mark. Anti depressants help a and a conversation with a buddy of mine called Jimmie Beam goes along way.

I keep tabs of how a method is working. If I go a month and the numbers show poor performance then it is time to re-evaluate.

The single biggest problem for me is I always seem to make the wrong paceline selection for todays race. For example, I will think that the horse had a valid reason for running 4th only to find out if I had used a different line I would have done better.

before you abandon your system or method take a look at how the data is being fed into it.

may not be your system that needs re examined.

I don't bet as much as I used to, health reasons, but I do get out a couple times a month and most of the guys used pretty much the same type of calculations. For me, it was poor paceline selection.

Good luck

[acorn54]

i say you need a very large data sample-say at least 18 months to determine if something is profitable.
there is the statistical problem of variance. i have seen some of my angles go bad for a three month stretch but that does not mean its no longer a good angle. it is just statistical variance.
ken uston wrote a good book on his experience playing 21 and even though the odds were in his favor over the very long term he went for four month stretches where he took a loss.

[mwilding1981]

Some good advice. Acorn how do you determine whether it is a statistical variance or there is a problem?

[Overlay]

Would you use the fact that is going outside of an estimate variance level for longer than a certain period of time or some other solution?

That would be my take, if you're dealing with probabilities or statistics: if results were negative to an extent that fell outside the limit of what would be expected as the result of normal random variance, based on your sample size of horses or races.

[Greyfox]

Stop betting when:

(9) You start downloading harness programs from Trackmaster.

(10) You get an inexplicable desire to enter a gun shop.

:lol: :lol: :ThmbUp:

[DJofSD]

Stop betting when:

(1) You can't explain the results you are witnessing out on the track.

I am primarily a pace handicapper. When my analysis falls short that's a huge red flag. Miss one race, that could just be racing luck but when more than one race does not run the way envisioned -- stop.

[acorn54]

Some good advice. Acorn how do you determine whether it is a statistical variance or there is a problem?

i have a year's worth of data in one folder and 2 sets of validation data of 3 months,and see if the angle holds up.
if i see the angle shows a heavy loss in two of the most consecutive quarters then i have to reconsider of whether i should use the angle. by heavy loss i mean not even being close to beating the take out.
if randomly betting you show a 22 cent loss, and my angle at that track doesn't come close to beating that, i suspect the data that i based my angle is stale and it's time to quit using that particular angle.
hope that helps.

[46zilzal]

Being a Wewst coaster (where weather on NORMAL dirt tracks was historically not a factor), I did not accept bias until numerically it was proven to me via the Sartin early/late balance numbers. I now JUMP when it is tilted one way or the other and PUSH bets.

The great thing about this "race to race" evaluation versus the track model, is that when it is out of kilter the other way, it is time to stop and watch...Great thing to monitor.

[LottaKash]

I believe myself to be a fairly decent handicapper, with an open mind to boot....

When I don't have that gut feeling deep down, the one that I usually get when making a quality play, then I shouldn't be playing the race...If I do or did, This suggests that I am not in my zone...."The focused zone"...

When I am focused, I am often deadly, but when not focused, I immediately slip back into mediocrity...

Top handicapper, Mark Cramer, suggests, that we write down the "Reasons" for our plays....When one does this, he can often discover where he went wrong or right on most races...It will reveal much if one is honest enough with himself...

For me "focus" is everything...The rest is ez for me...Total Focus is easier said than done, tho....

best,

[46zilzal]

The ONLY way one knows good or bad habits is by review.

[Zman179]

I often stop betting if I walk into a track and on the first two or three races I bet on, my trifectas and exactas get split by a single horse. If you're aware, you can tell when bankroll disaster is about to set in.

[windoor]

Thanks for the replies. Windoor do you just use 1 strategy for finding selections? I have many strategies for finding selections depending on the race conditions and horse types in the race. How would you separate when one is starting to perform poorly and re-adjust? I may, in fact almost certainly, still be making a profit overall but what threshold do you use to determine one area isn't working any more?

I have a total of six areas I look at for spot plays, with multiple ways a horse can qualify for a wager. I currently use the top three and have been doing quite well over the last five months.

Of the three, the worst performing is about 28% win per bet and 36% per race ( I often play more that one horse to win) If I find after a three month period or I have played one hundred races and the selection is not profitable, I will tweak the rules to make it so. Usually by finding races I should no longer play.

If your keep good records ( a must in my book) you can find the races that are not profitable ( or low hit rate) and move on from there.

Regards,

Windoor

[BirdstoneFTW]

When I go to live racing I will stop betting at the end of the Live racing card. I'm usually so focused on the live racing card that when it ends, I don't want to see another racing program for the rest of the day.

Most times I will focus solely on the live racing, but when I do bet another track it is only 1 and I have my plays spotted before the live racing starts.

I hope this makes sense.

[fmolf]

keeping records is a must as it pertains to which angles are working and which have ceased to be profitable.I usually quit when i feel that some results are unexplainable in the races i have chosen to wager on.I can lose 10 straight bets and still make the eleventh if i perceive value, although i will demand more of an overlay if things are going sour.Increasing bets is a sure way to kill your bankroll, decreasing during cold streaks a preservation method.I like to take my bankroll for the day and bet 10% of it on prime bets.This way i am automatically increasing or decreasing my bets as my bankroll changes.$40 bet on first race wins a $100 then i bet $50 on the next prime bet.just as an aside i also use 10% of my entire bankroll as my daily bankroll and increase or decrease my daily bankroll as well.I start with 4k and even if it dips below when i reach 5k which sometimes takes awhile i pay myself .....buy the wife something or take her to a nice dinner and show and bank the rest in the family acct.

[proximity]

I assume that a lot of you use multiple methods of finding selections depending on race type, track etc...... I was wondering what different methods people use to determine when a particular strategy is no longer working quite right and needs closer monitoring and when you decide to stop using it all together? What is it that allows you to make this decision?

this may not be the answer you're looking for, but if you've done this long enough and have had ANY success there's probably nothing (or little) wrong with your "particular strategy."

most of your "problems" you will have are probably due to not recognizing subtle changes to the handicapping landscapes you are playing. this is the "art" of handicapping and requires some intuition and ability to make quick judgements about numerous situations that can crop up.

examples: (1) you're betting horses shipping in from another circuits or circuits that aren't running to their figures. (2) horses are shipping in to your track from other circuits and running better than their numbers suggest. (3) out of nowhere a certain barn (or owner) starts to heat up. (4) out of nowhere a certain barn (or owner) abruptly cools down. (5) you misjudged a bias or variant change for a particular period. (6) there has been a sudden change in the relationships between distances at a track leading to screwed up variants and figures. (7)......

sorry for the long post.

[Niko]

Stop betting when:

(1) You can't explain the results you are witnessing out on the track.

(2) Your bankroll is becoming so low that you cannot cover the combinations you wish to cover in gimmicks, or you are unable to wager on preferred WPS selections in your normal manner (which hopefully includes variable bet sizes depending on perceived value).

(3) You begin to deviate from your normal playing style in that you are either (a) increasing bets or (b) playing races that you would not normally play in order to recover losses.

(4) You are upset to the degree that you are not thinking clearly in handicapping.

(5) You begin snapping at your significant other.

(6) Your BP meds are no longer keeping you at 120/80.

(7) You begin re-evaluating your life and nothing seems worthwhile.

(8) The phrase "The living will envy the dead" starts making complete sense.

(9) You start downloading harness programs from Trackmaster.

(10) You get an inexplicable desire to enter a gun shop.

I'd like to add

11; When you feel you'd have better luck buying a lottery ticket
12; You think you have a better shot dating Angela Jolie
13; You know for certain if you make the bet your horse will lose even if it's a lock, but if you miss the bet your horse will win because the Universe if conspiring against. Been there....even though I know it's not true...is it?

[letswastemoney]

Nonsense, you can still win no matter how much you are down by!!!!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thanks for the replies. Windoor do you just use 1 strategy for finding selections? I have many strategies for finding selections depending on the race conditions and horse types in the race. How would you separate when one is starting to perform poorly and re-adjust? I may, in fact almost certainly, still be making a profit overall but what threshold do you use to determine one area isn't working any more?

When one area isn't working well it usually means it's producing underlays or no winners at all right?When it occurs over a significant period of time that should send up the red flag to stop and use another tool in your approach belt.The big question is why isn't it working?Sometimes things and methods just run in cycles and a single method dominates for a period of time for no apparent reason and everybody knows it.It's good to have diversity to turn to and for you personally I think it's great you have the virtue of recognizing when something isn't working.It doesn't mean abandoning the concept at hand altogether because they all work in harmony as a whole.It just means what isn't working NOW goes on the back burner.

I had a horrible run in the fall last year where my pre-race key horses came in at a 52% clip,but there were very few bets because they were underlays and I wasn't finding value in exotics either.The result was a 33% loss.After analyzing it every which way,it was just a severe run of chalk at the track I was betting itself.Better handicapping and betting more into marginal solutions would not have saved me.

When things like this happen it's imperative to question the thing in itself and the external circumstances around it.Questioning yourself should go hand in hand with it though too IMO.Even though the above was dominantly external I had noticed how the longer prices and payoffs that I would land on normally were not as present last year.I took a month off,delved back into some handicapping literature,refined some old techniques and finished off the year with a brief run in late Nov-Dec in which I outperformed myself compared to the other 10 and a half months!!!

That too may have been merely a short term cycle of the law of averages but I'm convinced that had I not taken a step back,those 3 steps forward have never had the chance to come into being.

Sorry for the long post.Good luck!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Being a Wewst coaster (where weather on NORMAL dirt tracks was historically not a factor), I did not accept bias until numerically it was proven to me via the Sartin early/late balance numbers. I now JUMP when it is tilted one way or the other and PUSH bets.

The great thing about this "race to race" evaluation versus the track model, is that when it is out of kilter the other way, it is time to stop and watch...Great thing to monitor.

I understand the bias reality from the Sartin perspective and from the visual perspective,and to me it's one of the biggest sources of profits year in,year out:ThmbUp: