Numbers Crazy?

[alysheba88]

Not looking to offend anyone, just trying to generate some discussion. It seems that handicappers nowadays are going way way overboard with numbers. Trying to quantify the unquantifiable. Constantly tinkering with and adjusting numbers to account for everything in the world, even if its not relevant. All to come up with some magic number that supposebly will tell you who will win today. Think many are off track.

I started out learning about this game through Beyer's books and am a big believer in speed figures. I understand the importance of pace. Changing track conditions, biases, etc. I find speed figures helpful in setting some type of parameter of what it will take to win the race. I also think there can be some benefit in anticipating bounces, and change of form cycle.

But it seems that players fall back on "numbers" way too often, and worse constantly tinker and make their own "adjustments". The irony is so many use to the same methods and such and all end up on the same horses because they have the right "number".

You will only win at this game if you have unique insights. Know when to pass races, and know how to assess value. Know your strenghts and weaknesses. There is no Rosetta Stone as Beyer himself says. Think handicappers should spend less time modifying and tinkering with their numbers and looking at other aspects of handicapping.

[Valuist]

Agreed. I think simulcasting is the main culprit. Many bettors will play more than 5 tracks in a day so they don't have time to concentrate on going thru old charts, or doing a decent post parade/paddock analysis. If they see the big speed figure, or the positive trainer ROI, thats all they need.

[andicap]

Agreed.
It's a very human attempt to put order in a chaotic and sometimes random universe. It's why mankind is always
striving to learn more....but it's so left-brain oriented.
I wonder if horseplayers would do better if they developed their
right-brain capabilities more. There are ways to do this and it would probably make handicappers think in more creative ways when looking at the past performances.

Personally, I think we all could use a good shrink since winning is at least 50% mental. So using math is a way to overcome the treacherous mental part which trips up most of us.

We are all decent handicappers, but often lose because of fear -- fear of putting the same amount of money on that 15-1 shot as we do on the 3-1 horse. Fear of losing streaks. Fear of failure.
Maybe even fear of winning -- some people can't take success (look at Woody Allen for instance, or athletes and entertainers who turn to drugs when they're on top. (see Sid Caesar).

Is there a doctor in the house?

:D

[Larry Hamilton]

To whom do I return these large sums of money that it isn't possible for me to win?

You guys need to concentrate more on what works for you and less on what doesn't work for me.

[Lefty]

Larry just send that ill-gotten "numbers" money to me.
A guy at the racebook the other day says "who's the jockey on your horse(selection).
I sez, "don't know"
"man, you must be nuts" he replies.
Maybe I am, maybe I am.

[Tom]

Yeah, send the ill gotten numbers money to Lefty...send ME the ill gotten numbers! <G>

[Fastracehorse]

=>It seems that handicappers nowadays are going way way overboard with numbers. Trying to quantify the unquantifiable.

=========================================

But the important thing is to know what is and what isn't quantifiable.

There are some horses you can never assess, but that doesn't mean there isn't a power to numerical assignment. In fact, a numerical quantification is very powerful. The problem is that you are right - if you do not understand the limits of quantificating resources, you will win only 1 in every 6 or 7.

fffastt

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by andicap

We are all decent handicappers, but often lose because of fear -- fear of putting the same amount of money on that 15-1 shot as we do on the 3-1 horse. Fear of losing streaks. Fear of failure.
Maybe even fear of winning


When that 15-1 comes in, it makes you really question why you bothered with the 3-1. I'll take winners at any price, but I don't mind flat betting the 15-1 horse.

[kenwoodall]

Agreed, personal custom handicapping is best. I will bet jockeys when I see a jockey throw a horse!!