Holy Bull Stakes Analysis (Saturday Jan. 23)

[Robert Fischer]

Pick: Aikenite @ >= 4-1
Most likely Winners: Aikenite, Jackson Bend, Winslow Homer
Race Scenario: Just off the pace and outside dueler in the stretch.



analysis of each runner

:1:Thank U Philippe - game but flawed runner (poor footwork entering, and hesitant to pass runners). He seems that he will outrun his pedigree and get up to 9Furlongs or so. Allowance in January an improvement - did not hesitate to pass a rival in the stretch. Has stolen the spotlight in losses to rivals such as Homeboykris, Jackson Bend, and Eskendereya. Adds blinkers which could remedy some issues, could get a piece, probably needs pace to collapse to factor for win, wait and see.

:2:Homeboykris - Showing a trio of Dutrow's signature 6/8 works, and a tightener and they are about the most intimidating thing going for this guy. Champagne was less impressive than it looks on form. Remsen was a bad trip, but exposed some short-comings. Have to respect the barn, but Not sure I want him on top in a duel.

:3:Litigation Risk - Not a bad horse, just hasn't done anything special. Quick Ride and Alex Le Great had worse trips, and Litigation Risk never had a chance in the DEDJackpot. Should set the pace.

:4:Piscitelli - solid, versatile runner. Probably not quick enough here and not going to run them down either.

:5:William's Kitten - Trip or Trap?? Not top-tier, cursed w/ Bad Combination of Lugging in badly and needing Daylight to run. Still better than his form shows, he lugged in behind horses and shut it down in the Grey, Lugged in, bumped, and shut it down behind traffic in the BCJUV, and lugged in bumped half the field behind an impossible wire2wire in KYJC. Needs an unlikely race collapse here.

:6:Winslow Homer - Raking stride raises questions about future soundness. Has talent, could very well get a good trip here. @ around 5-1 is enticing, but I want to see one more from him before I'm sold.

:7:Wild Lime - followed signs of life in Meadowlands allowance with form-hiding learning experience at Tampa= Eating a lot of sand in a crowd. Stretching out to even a 1turn mile could put him in closer range. Big Odds make attractive add.

:8:Aikenite - Consistent performer if not elite. Flattered by stretch run vs LAL although beneficiary of a better trip that day until cut-off badly. Can picture Velazquez sitting about 3rd/4th and getting out on the good part for run in the stretch.

:9:Jackson Bend - Won out the Calder juvenile circuit. The surface there can be tiring, and so the pace is usually moderate, Since the change of hands has been clearly working on speed at Palm Meadows. Has appeared to be a nice one, but hasn't been jaw-dropping. Interesting prospect. Will he suffer defeat with a worse trip against better, or be the latest Derby Buzz with a stylish win?

[Investorater]

#2_Homeboykris

[WinterTriangle]

No wins for Dominguez or Richard Dutrow in this race, IMHO.
It's gonna be Johnny V all the way on Aikenite for me, or the other Pletcher horse, for the win.

Edit: I forgot to put in my exotics. Williiam's Kitten, Winslow Homer, and Jackson Bend will be ITM.

if I play any superfectas, I'll also use Litigation Risk 'cause he's a hard knocking horse who is vastly underrated.

[Robert Fischer]

would be nice to see someone run a big race that can be built on. Even though I didn't pick them, Thank U Philippe and Jackson Bend are probably my two favorite as a fan. :ThmbUp:

[bisket]

this is how i see the holly bull, and i think there's money to be made on this race. both of aiknite's races on dirt leave much to be desired. jackson bend has had 3 months between races and only has 4 works to show for it. the first or which was only 4 weeks ago, and was only 3 furs. which says to me he wasn't working at a farm prior to this. so yes he has some impressive works last 2, but this is a 1 mile race not a 6 fur introduction. cancel these two entries from the tri and bingo$$$$$$$.
the :1: thank u phillipe had a real nice even race last out. usually a good indication that a horse will move forward. backed up a little to jackson at 1 1/16 mile at calder a few races back, but this race is at a mile. he's capable of close to a 95 or better beyer this outing i think. he's in the tri, and a candidate for a win bet. homeboy kris is a wildcard. he runs with his head held high, and is difficult for a jock to control. so another words he's gonna do what he pleases. in the remson he ran right on top of another horse. i don't see him out of the money at this distance, and 10-1 or better may get a win bet. litigation risk didn't work for 3 weeks after last out and backed up badly in the stretch. sounds as if something happened in the delta, and he didn't come out of the race to well. i'll pass. now piscitelli is an interesting entry. his races on dirt impress me more than his poly races, and he didn't shame himself on poly either. he's in the tri. bill's kitten is a turfy. winslow homer was impressive last out. anteny dutrow is one of my fav trainers. every i is dotted and t crossed as far as winslow's preperation for this race. tony doesn't run a horse otherwise. he's in the tri.
right now this is the way is see it. although i may drop one to put the :8: or :9: in at race time. right now i'm thinking of dropping piscitelli for jackson. jackson won't be at his best, but out of the money i dunno. might go with a tri wheel. race time decision. i think the :1: phillipe wins this.
2$ tri box
1 thank you phillipe
2 homeboy kris
4 piscitelli
6 winslow homer

[Robert Fischer]

this is how i see the holly bull, and i think there's money to be made on this race. both of aiknite's races on dirt leave much to be desired. jackson bend has had 3 months between races and only has 4 works to show for it. the first or which was only 4 weeks ago, and was only 3 furs. which says to me he wasn't working at a farm prior to this. so yes he has some impressive works last 2, but this is a 1 mile race not a 6 fur introduction. cancel these two entries from the tri and bingo$$$$$$$.
the :1: thank u phillipe had a real nice even race last out. usually a good indication that a horse will move forward. backed up a little to jackson at 1 1/16 mile at calder a few races back, but this race is at a mile. he's capable of close to a 95 or better beyer this outing i think. he's in the tri, and a candidate for a win bet. homeboy kris is a wildcard. he runs with his head held high, and is difficult for a jock to control. so another words he's gonna do what he pleases. in the remson he ran right on top of another horse. i don't see him out of the money at this distance, and 10-1 or better may get a win bet. litigation risk didn't work for 3 weeks after last out and backed up badly in the stretch. sounds as if something happened in the delta, and he didn't come out of the race to well. i'll pass. now piscitelli is an interesting entry. his races on dirt impress me more than his poly races, and he didn't shame himself on poly either. he's in the tri. bill's kitten is a turfy. winslow homer was impressive last out. anteny dutrow is one of my fav trainers. every i is dotted and t crossed as far as winslow's preperation for this race. tony doesn't run a horse otherwise. he's in the tri.
right now this is the way is see it. although i may drop one to put the :8: or :9: in at race time. right now i'm thinking of dropping piscitelli for jackson. jackson won't be at his best, but out of the money i dunno. might go with a tri wheel. race time decision. i think the :1: phillipe wins this.
2$ tri box
1 thank you phillipe
2 homeboy kris
4 piscitelli
6 winslow homer

logical and could pay well :ThmbUp:

[bisket]

changed a bit due to really fast track
1$ tri box
:2: :4: :6: :9:
5$ tri box
:4: :6: :9:
5$ ex box
:4: :6:
20$ win
:4:

[bisket]

add 5$ tri box
:2: :4: :6:

[joanied]

Aikenite
Homeboykris
Jackson bend

I don't beleive any of these colts are Derby material...but, hey...what do I know:D

[bisket]

antny dutrow is stacked with contenders this year. nice horse

[Watcher]

Which of these horses do we see in the Derby?

Winslow Homer ✓
Jackson Bend ✓

Homeboykris ?
Aikenite ?

[toussaud]

Which of these horses do we see in the Derby?

Winslow Homer ✓
Jackson Bend ✓

Homeboykris ?
Aikenite ?
lol. you won't see either of the checkmarks. neither want a damn thing over a mile and winslow's legs look like they are put together with silly putty

[bisket]

homer was wandering around pretty good in the stretch. you could see it on the head on shot of the replays. it did raise a question mark in my mind? i was impressed with jackson in the context that i think he may have been a little short for this race.

[Robert Fischer]

Was a very good race. Homeboykris really went for it, and did run relatively big but he was pressed hard the whole way. Winslow Homer looks like a good animal and may be able to translate that high cruising speed to the classic distance. Others were pumping away and he was in hand and had run in the stretch. Didn't like Jackson Bend at all seeing him in the post parade. -Not as a comparison to past post parades, just that he didn't impress me in general physical appearance but he ran a good race. Homeboykris and Winslow Homer looked like the best animals. Jackson Bend was also contacted across the nose with the riding crop of the winner(Ramon Dominguez windup motion) as he is approaching the leader and making his bid. Most likely Winslow Homer would have won, although the margin would have been much closer, and Jackson Bend may have had some small probability of winning should his momentum not been stopped. In any case Winslow Homer emerges the most interesting Triple Crown prospect.
http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/7343/facei.png

[W2G]

Which of these horses do we see in the Derby?

Winslow Homer ✓
Jackson Bend ✓

Homeboykris ?
Aikenite ?

Winslow Homer is squarely on the trail, and at the top of my list. Nothing but blue sky ahead for this gray. I have a feeling Jackson Bend will not relish longer distances.

[miesque]

lol. you won't see either of the checkmarks. neither want a damn thing over a mile and winslow's legs look like they are put together with silly putty

:D Winslow Homer is an Unbridled's Song out of a Summer Squall mare which doesn't exactly scream durability. The only future book type of bet I would be interested in is when he heads to the sideslines/retirement and how many more races he has in his career.

[Watcher]

lol. you won't see either of the checkmarks. neither want a damn thing over a mile and winslow's legs look like they are put together with silly putty

Guaranteed they're both there. Since when did it start mattering to connections whether their horses had a chance in hell?

[sandpit]

:D Winslow Homer is an Unbridled's Song out of a Summer Squall mare which doesn't exactly scream durability. The only future book type of bet I would be interested in is when he heads to the sideslines/retirement and how many more races he has in his career.

Sadly, I agree. I always liked Unbridled's Song, but he was fragile and so are his offspring. Winslow's stride is eerily like his daddy's, with that stiff, locked right front.

[miesque]

:D Winslow Homer is an Unbridled's Song out of a Summer Squall mare which doesn't exactly scream durability. The only future book type of bet I would be interested in is when he heads to the sideslines/retirement and how many more races he has in his career.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55161/winslow-homer-off-the-derby-trail

Fox Hill Farm’s Winslow Homer (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/winslow-homer/2007?source=BHonline), winner of the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), has been sidelined with a stress fracture and has been taken off the Kentucky Derby trail. He was currently ranked No. 4 on the Derby Dozen.

[PhantomOnTour]

Nice call miesque.

How bout Eightfiveinafifty? Isnt he out of an Unbridleds Song mare? Is his influence on the dam side as detrimental from a durability aspect?

Eightfive ran so fast first out that he is getting lauded by many, but I pause at that super speed first out with that pedigree. Aint that par for the course with Unbr Songs?

[bisket]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55161/winslow-homer-off-the-derby-trail

Fox Hill Farm’s Winslow Homer (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/winslow-homer/2007?source=BHonline), winner of the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), has been sidelined with a stress fracture and has been taken off the Kentucky Derby trail. He was currently ranked No. 4 on the Derby Dozen.


same thing happened last year as well with an unbridled song contender.

[W2G]

That's too bad, I liked WH. Not too surprising really, sad to say, but I was hoping they could keep him together. It has been underreported that his two-year-old season was interrupted by a quarter crack. Maybe we'll see him for the late summer races. That makes two casualties now out of the oddly-paced Holy Bull.

[Robert Fischer]

That's too bad, I liked WH. Not too surprising really, sad to say, but I was hoping they could keep him together.

Yea...
I think 4 people in this thread mentioned his vulnerability to injury either before the race or just following(including the OP).

Fortunately he has his life.

Lots of talent and would have likely been a good bet against at a later point. Hopefully he is pain free, happy and maybe even makes a comeback.

[toussaud]

lol. you won't see either of the checkmarks. neither want a damn thing over a mile and winslow's legs look like they are put together with silly putty

[Robert Fischer]

:confused: we should all quote ourselves, where we mentioned that the horse would likely have soundness problems...