Key races

[Valuist]

I was wondering how many people used them. I do my key races a bit differently; I only do them for conditioned races, but I go back and circle the horse in each one of its previous races at that specific condition. For instance, there's several Mdn races at Gulfstream this past winter which have had 7 horses eventually break their Mdn. Its more work, but well worth it, IMO.

[Fastracehorse]

Key races are probably the most important research any handicapper could do.

You need DRF charts, some hard work, and, organizational skills but well, well worth it.

I devised my adjusted speed figure from chart work.

I once had a key race that threw four 20-1 plus horses - one of them lost the Arkansas Derby by a head at 25-1. Since I've always had a penchant for longshots - I was hooked.

Because of the adjd fig, I no longer need to do chart work, thankfully - more tracks I can play.

fffastt

[Show Me the Wire]

Valuist:

Ask Karl to pm you his key race worksheet. I am serious he has a nice layout, for what you do.

Regards
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Valuist]

SMTM

I'm quite happy with the way it works now. It is a lot of work but I tend to remember it better anyways. The best key race scenario:

A 3YO making his first start of the year. His last start was in the previous Sept or August. He finished 5th, beaten maybe 6-7 lengths. Then you go back to the DRF chart and see that the 1,2,4,7,9,and 11th place finishers have all since broken their maiden. Maybe not all in their next race, but eventually. These plays come up at some track almost every day during the spring.

I'm not as big a fan of the key race for an open claiming race, however.

[andicap]

A lot of work, but less so if you limit to maidens only. Just what I need, another research project.

Thanks

[so.cal.fan]

Has anyone ever determined how many key race winners are just coincidental and nothing more?
There has to be some that are.
On the other hand, NEGATIVE key races are interesting, especially early in the year with three year olds....if a horse out of a certain race is made favorite, and especially if you see two heavily bet horses out of a certain race....that bounce or just don't improve.......you may or may not be very interested in the rest of this field.

[Valuist]

Andicap-

I definitely agree that key races work best with Mdns. I really like somewhat slow figured races that turn out to be key races; usually big-time value.

[Rick]

I've always wondered why nobody refined the concept a little more to try to come up with a rating for the race based on how well the horses ran the next time out. It could be as simple as comparing speed ratings in the two races and might give you a more accurate measure of the class of the race.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
On the other hand, NEGATIVE key races are interesting, especially early in the year with three year olds....if a horse out of a certain race is made favorite, and especially if you see two heavily bet horses out of a certain race....that bounce or just don't improve.......you may or may not be very interested in the rest of this field.

I agree and there are more negative key races than positive key races.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Valuist]

I don't assign numeric values for the race but I'll notate the number of graduates out of that field. Let's say a horse finished 4th but the 2nd 6th and 7th horses have since broken their maiden (even at lower levels), I'll put a 3 (# of winners from the race) followed by a circled 2 (the number of horses who this horse beat who've since broken their Mdns).

[so.cal.fan]

Rick has a great idea!
Today's Racing Digest (Calif.) rates races, but I have never been satisfied as to the accuracy.
Rick's idea is interesting.......maybe a new way to correctly classify a lot of horses?
Some of you computer program guys are surely sharp enough to run with this idea. You might just have something useful.
The DRF may even publish your book!
It would seem that the DRF computers could do this, if they had the right idea for a program......after all....they do the Horses to Watch for us.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Rick
I've always wondered why nobody refined the concept a little more to try to come up with a rating for the race based on how well the horses ran the next time out. It could be as simple as comparing speed ratings in the two races and might give you a more accurate measure of the class of the race.
My Trackmaster DB for NYRA and FL allow me to printout a Key race report as a query with no work on my part. Part of the reports are the pace and speed ratings in subsequent races, the next class, etc. If aa horse ships out and wins at anohter track, I miss it, but c'est live.

[andicap]

Rick,
My only doubts on your idea is how do you adjust for form cycle.

A horse that does a 90 in a winning race and bounces to a 75 -- or does a 90 and comes back in a stakes race and is outclassed. Or on a wet track. Or gets a horrible trip -- 4 wide around the 1st turn of a two turn race.

That next 75 doesn't mean the original 90 wasn't valid -- just means on his next race the horse had a bad day.

[keilan]

I have always believed key races are primarily for young 2 and 3yo’s.

Key races are as much for the poor and good fields alike. Knowing that a field of 7or 8 horses are below par is very useful information, I consider it “key”.

When I was making variants I knew immediately after calculating the variant whether or not any performance/race was exceptional/key or not.

After viewing the race chart it is rather clear whether the race was “Key” or was it just an “exceptional performance” by the race winner.

The “key method” described in most 101 handicapping books have you tracking races and judging whether they are key based on whether two horses from that race go on to win. Waiting to see if other horses won from that “key” race before determining it “key” always seemed like I would have missed with at least two bullets. Plus it saves countless hours tracking.

I mark the race “key” when I believe it is and throw the horses that were competitive from the “key” race into my virtual stable with a comment.

DONE!

[Fastracehorse]

<My only doubts on your idea is how do you adjust for form cycle.

A horse that does a 90 in a winning race and bounces to a 75 -- or does a 90 and comes back in a stakes race and is outclassed. Or on a wet track. Or gets a horrible trip -- 4 wide around the 1st turn of a two turn race.

That next 75 doesn't mean the original 90 wasn't valid -- just means on his next race the horse had a bad day.

I don't believe form cycle is relevant to the importance of key races.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It doesn't matter what the winner does the rest of his career - as long as he ran a key race. The strength of key races is that they identify a group of horses that look alot worse than they really are. They look weak because they tested a pace that was tougher than usual and hence, perform much better when competeing against apropriate foes.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<I don't assign numeric values for the race but I'll notate the number of graduates out of that field.

Yes, that is what I used to do but now I have a numerical value for every horse out of every race.

My figure tells me how well the horse performed - the key races is evidence pointing towards a winner .

Numerical assessments are superior.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<I don't assign numeric values for the race but I'll notate the number of graduates out of that field.

____________________________________________

Yes, that is what I used to do but now I have a numerical value for every horse out of every race.

My figure tells me how well the horse performed - the key race is evidence pointing towards a winner .

Numerical assessments are superior.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<Waiting to see if other horses won from that “key” race before determining it “key” always seemed like I would have missed with at least two bullets. Plus it saves countless hours tracking.

_________________________________________________

Very true - you know the importance of a guy making his own speed figs.

fffastt

[Rick]

I wonder if one could predict a key race by looking at the pace and speed of the leaders and/or winner.

[keilan]

–in a word “absolutely”

[Valuist]

Another way is when you're actually handicapping that race, make a note for the future that it is a likely key race. Its probably a race with several horses coming off 2nds or 3rds in faster than par races, with maybe a few nice first timers sprinkled in.

OTOH, its probably wise to note the Mdn race won by the 0 for 25 beast is likely to be a negative key race. There's a race at Monmouth today where 2 of the favorites are coming out of that exact kind of race.

[Fastracehorse]

<I wonder if one could predict a key race by looking at the pace and speed of the leaders and/or winner.

______________________________________

Essentially that is what I do. But the key race isn't so important to me anymore - the fundamentals of the key race are however - it is just that I like to think I can accurately quantify a horse's ability based on comparison to pace/speed/class of the winner.

Key race theory spurned me in this direction - with a speed figure I have more time to handicap more races.

fffastt

[Rick]

keilan & fast,

Would you prefer the pace of the winner or the pace of the leaders?

[keilan]

But the key race isn't so important to me anymore - the fundamentals of the key race are however - it is just that I like to think I can accurately quantify a horse's ability based on comparison to pace/speed/class of the winner.


fffast -- excellent point, a horse's ability is best measured by the internal fractions. That in large part addresses the potential and class of the animal.


Would you prefer the pace of the winner or the pace of the leaders?


Rick -- I believe the pace of the winner produces a much more reliable number.

[Valuist]

But the best valued key races are the ones where the time isn't fantastic; once the big Beyer appears in the Form, the value is gone.

[Rick]

keilan,

That figures, but it means that you can't do it from past performances, only charts. Too bad.

[Fastracehorse]

I like the pace of the leaders.

Because horses trying to keep pace with superior end up looking worse than they really are - these beaten horses just ran into a classier/better animal.

The nice thing about key races is that they identify classier horses of the same class - if that makes sense - sort of separating class within a class.

But the above is not to say that a superior stalker or closer cannot be a key horse - I just get more overalys with the former.

fffastt

[Tom]

You didn't ask me, but I prefer the pace of the race. the pace of the race is what wither allows a horse to run within his comfort zone or forces it into stressfull race. Pace postion is an important aspect for me. I always look a horse wins or photo finished and see where he was at the first call. Not lengths, but postion. This is whyIlike Formulator with lifetime pps.
If I horse is always 3-4 or at worst 5 when he wins, and he figures to be 7 or 8 today, I look for less than steller performance.
Rather than line them up by their pace ratings of velocity numbers, I like to line them up by where they prefer to be and then see if the pace of the race will be favoring to them or hurting them.

[Rick]

I've always thought you could come up with a good rating using pace of the race, speed of the race, and speed of the horse. I may do some research into it when I get the time.

There's also a lot to be said for separating horses by running style and seeing who's the best in each category. I think Brohamer does something similar to that according to what I've read. I think that's probably about what Tom (our Tom) is trying to do.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Rick
There's also a lot to be said for separating horses by running style and seeing who's the best in each category. I think Brohamer does something similar to that according to what I've read. I think that's probably about what Tom (our Tom) is trying to do.

I'm not a pace guru but this seems to be the best use of pace when there is not an extreme scenario -- look at the best early horse & the best late horse as your two main contenders.

[Fastracehorse]

<I'm not a pace guru but this seems to be the best use of pace when there is not an extreme scenario

____________________________________________

I guess you don't have to be a pace guru to understand the importance of race-shape and various pace scenarios.

There are situations where the pace is sticky - and others where the pace collapses.

Like U said, it is nice to have a blend - it is also nice to have a high figure horse in a race where the pace scenario appears favorable - that is what I call a PB ( prime bet ) - add some fire-works to the tote and I think I have a chance to turn a tidy one.

fffastt

[Rick]

GT,

I think I'd prefer best early speed for the early runners and best overall speed for the others since late pace at most tracks isn't very important (except in turf races).

[GameTheory]

Well, in that context, Early means E & EP, and Late means everything else (mid-pack P's included) so we're not neccessarily talking about real closers here, just any horse who probably won't try for the lead. Look at the best of the probable leaders and the best of the rest and those are your main two in absence of an extreme scenario that sets up particularly well for a certain type of running style...

[VetScratch]

KR analysis for 2-3YOs has always reaped rewards for those willing to devote the prerequisite time and effort. Here is what my intuition tells me about the approaches described in this thread.

A KR identification method that requires finding graduates who win next time out would seem to have the following drawbacks:
(1) You miss two or three winners before you identify the KR.
(2) Furthermore, you need to put some qualifiers on your graduate winners:

(a) Should all wins-right-back be counted, regardless of distance, surface, or weather changes, and disregarding big class drops? I don't think so.
(b) Did 10th by 22 win next time out because of any benefit derived from running in a potential KR, or isn't the win more likely attributable to one or more of the training/health/maturity/medication/equipment/trip-related variables that propel youngsters to take a big step forward from race to race. Should such a win count towards qualifying the previous race as a KR?
(c) What about the logistics for races won by graduates from potential KRs? When a bunch of maidens leave Gulfstream and fan out across the country to any number of tracks east of the Missouri, I think there is a good chance they will benefit from training in the Florida weather and will beat inferior fields at lesser ovals whether or not their last race at GP was a KR or not.

KR identification based on recognition on superior (key) pace/speed figures (adjusted, of course) would seem to be the better method because you may benefit sooner and can also drastically reduce your workload. Let's examine the downside differences:
(a) After laboriously tracking graduates, tallying wins, and identifying what you believe to be a KR, your horses-to-watch or Stable-Alert mechanism should provide subsequent plays to consider. However, was the race really key, has the well already run dry, etc? After a couple of wagers, you may be either a smiling winner or a scowling loser, as you delete one KR from your hot list.
(b) After you qualify a KR based on its own internal performance characteristics, you will also be able to find subsequent plays to consider. After a couple wagers, same result... you score or cut your losses by deleting a KR from your hot list.

As pointed out in previous posts, a superior final speed figure by itself does not signify a KR. What needs to be detected is the promise of competitive efforts by the also-rans, and this may require some sophistication. A friend of mine seems to do quite well with a simple but subtle method for evaluating maiden races.

Here is how it works for 6f races, the most common maiden distance. He develops class pars based on interval pace ratings for the 2f to 4f segment, including all horses except the winner that are within 10 lengths of the lead at either the 2f or 4f calls. His idea has a lot to do with the way Maidens Races are contested and dominated by early speed. If the horses that qualify to be rated produce an above-par consolidated pace rating (for the 2f to 4f interval), a key race is often indicated despite common maiden circumstances.

For example, a superior E or E/P runner trounces the field. Jockeys aboard other early speedsters begin to wrap up when their mounts show signs of faltering as the winner "appears" to re-break at the top of the stretch. Jockeys aboard P and S types may ride competitively, asking for some foot to begin a move between 2f and 4f, but they will also begin to wrap up when they realize the cause is hopeless.

By measuring the 2f to 4f pace interval, my friend claims to be measuring the field against the most revealing segment of each race. A field that scores above par for this segment holds the promise of future wins by those horses that qualified to be rated.

BTW, for those that use BRIS adjusted pace ratings (2fP and 4fP), he identifies which also-ran horses qualify to be rated, then he calculates each individual interval rating as: 2fP + (3 x (4fP - 2fP)). Why? He just claims it works (for 6f maiden races).

Any comments?

[keilan]

Your post is essentially the long version of what others and I had written earlier with a few examples provided to help illustrate your opinion.

The “key race method” or as you described “KR identification method” is very much alive and used by many of the members on this board.

That’s one of the beautiful things about par mutual wagering. Opinions/methods are generally supported by each player’s wallet.

[Rick]

GT,

Some would include E/P types in both lists. Not too many S types winning anywhere that I know of though.

[ranchwest]

My first method of playing trifectas beyond 6f (many years ago) was to take Quirin speed points and a similar count for closers and never go with three horses strong in either category. 2 speed and 1 closer or 2 closers and 1 speed.

[VetScratch]

Keilan,
Your post is essentially the long version of what others and I had written earlier with a few examples provided to help illustrate your opinion. The “key race method” or as you described “KR identification method” is very much alive and used by many of the members on this board. That’s one of the beautiful things about par mutual wagering. Opinions/methods are generally supported by each player’s wallet.
Thanks for the compliment! Your posts were so vague and generalized that I wasn't sure we were on the same page. When I get time, I will also help you with "par mutual" wagering.

[keilan]

VS

What I commented on wasn’t a compliment; I’m not that vain.

With reference to “too vague and generalized” see my posts

Post #1
a) 2-3yo’s
b) par times
c) variants
d) qualifying performance
e) Missed with at least two bullets
f) Countless hours tracking.

Post #2
a) pace and speed reference


Post #3
a) internal fractions

With respect to your lengthy post I stand by what stated. I write with the mindset that most of the members understand what I’m talking about without providing an array of examples. If on occasion they don’t I’m happy to provide further explanation.


Re: par mutual wagering --should I ever want your help I will ask for it. But thanks for the generous offer.

[VetScratch]

Keilan, about your 1st post:
When I was making variants I knew immediately after calculating the variant whether or not any performance/race was exceptional/key or not. After viewing the race chart it is rather clear whether the race was “Key” or was it just an “exceptional performance” by the race winner.
If not vague generalization, what else can we call such drivel? About all that one might conclude is that you may have been impressed by Secretariat's Belmont (but then maybe not, because you never explain how others may know and view what you claim to perceive). I think you're faking it!

[keilan]

Whatever!

[Derek2U]

Keilan Faking it? hehe .... never

[Tom]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Keilan, about your 1st post:

If not vague generalization, what else can we call such drivel? About all that one might conclude is that you may have been impressed by Secretariat's Belmont (but then maybe not, because you never explain how others may know and view what you claim to perceive). I think you're faking it!

Drivel? Well, one (THIS one) might (and does) call it a proven successful method of making figures and tracking key races. There have been m-a-n-y such examples since Big Red, in fact,
m-a-n-y since Memorial Day. I thought tihs post was very clear.

[VetScratch]

Keilan's Method:
"When I was making variants I knew immediately after calculating the variant whether or not any performance/race was exceptional/key or not. After viewing the race chart it is rather clear whether the race was “Key” or was it just an “exceptional performance” by the race winner."

Tom's Lucid Observation:
"Drivel? Well, one (THIS one) might (and does) call it a proven successful method of making figures and tracking key races. There have been m-a-n-y such examples since Big Red, in fact,
m-a-n-y since Memorial Day. I thought tihs post was very clear."

Tom,
Secretariat's Belmont is not the kind of key race this thread is about unless you are asserting that Sham and the others were bound to improve off of such a humiliating defeat.

Now, tell us where you found a "method" in Keilan's post? We see that he claims to be perceptive ("I knew immediately" and "After viewing the race chart it is rather clear"), but that is hardly a method. If you asked me how to handicap, and I told you to be perceptive, would you call that a method? No, I think you would call it a lazy answer (or a cop out by a fake).

Sometimes I wonder how many "Good Ole Boys" it takes to screw in a lightbulb!

[Tom]

Tell you what, don't bother replying to anymore of my posts, because you are obviously only interested in arguing and putting people down, FRANKly.
As for your lightbulb, if you ever figure out how many people you need, I will be happy to tell them where to screw it in.
Buddy, you are not worth the bother to talk to.
HAGD.

[keilan]

Tom – I apologize for taking the questions posed to you by VS – but since it is my writings she has questioned I feel obligated to respond.


"When I was making variants I knew immediately after calculating the variant whether or not any performance/race was exceptional/key or not.

Response – I calculate variants so that all measurements calculated are from the same reference point (zero adjusted track) compare apples to apples. I enter each winning horse’s measurements onto an excel spreadsheet and developed a profile for class level, track, distance, surface, sex, age, post-position, %energy, etc. I used par times/projected variant to accomplish this. At this point it is rather elementary to determine whether the winner’s performance is exceptional or not. Par for class level is xxx and winner was yyy.


After viewing the race chart it is rather clear whether the race was “Key” or was it just an “exceptional performance” by the race winner."

Response – (couple of examples) if the winner (exceeded class level par substantially) ran gate to wire and no other horse contended at any point in the race, most would assume it was an exceptional performance by the winner. However if other horses contended (exceeded class level par substantially) throughout the race this might be considered a key race –as some of those contenders will have there say another day. Etc.

Perception has nothing to do with it and this is the last courtesy I extend your way VS. From this point forward answer your own questions, I’m done entertaining you.

[ranchwest]

VS,

Why are you such an expert on faking it?

[Fastracehorse]

Anywho Vet Scratch,

You made some valid points about the limitaitions of key race analysis - but you would be hard pressed to find a method better at finding overlays withoout a persoanlized speed figure.

The important point here though, is that every handicapping tool by itself is limited - the power is in the knowledge of how to use a combination of factors.

Try and be nice to Keilan - he's from my home town.

And Keilan, I need a new link.

fffastt

[VetScratch]

Fastracehorse@DRF,

I agree that key races spawn many overlays. I simply think time and effort are better rewarded by finding them with the second of the two methods that I discussed in my original post to this thread.

As for Keilan, he puzzles me. Within a few days, this is already the second time he has jumped in to start a fray with me. The first time, he was so abusive that PA had to delete his vulgarities.

As I reviewed this thread, Keilan's assault on me remains puzzling. Has he ever had problems working for a female boss?

[Shacopate]

Some friendly advice,

You obviously know your stuff. And that should be respected. But you seem hellbent to push peoples buttons. It's not healthy.

Chill.

[andicap]

OK, I'm going to defend VS here.

This was her initial post in this threat. I thought it was extremely informative and did not carry a condescending tone like many others (men) who post here. Much of the stuff on here comes with the air of someone who is an "absolutist" as in this is the only way or my way is the best way. Nonsense.

ANyway, VS wrote THIS
--------------------------------------------
{B] Key Race Analysis
KR analysis for 2-3YOs has always reaped rewards for those willing to devote the prerequisite time and effort. Here is what my intuition tells me about the approaches described in this thread.

A KR identification method that requires finding graduates who win next time out would seem to have the following drawbacks:
(1) You miss two or three winners before you identify the KR.
(2) Furthermore, you need to put some qualifiers on your graduate winners:

(a) Should all wins-right-back be counted, regardless of distance, surface, or weather changes, and disregarding big class drops? I don't think so.
(b) Did 10th by 22 win next time out because of any benefit derived from running in a potential KR, or isn't the win more likely attributable to one or more of the training/health/maturity/medication/equipment/trip-related variables that propel youngsters to take a big step forward from race to race. Should such a win count towards qualifying the previous race as a KR?
(c) What about the logistics for races won by graduates from potential KRs? When a bunch of maidens leave Gulfstream and fan out across the country to any number of tracks east of the Missouri, I think there is a good chance they will benefit from training in the Florida weather and will beat inferior fields at lesser ovals whether or not their last race at GP was a KR or not.

KR identification based on recognition on superior (key) pace/speed figures (adjusted, of course) would seem to be the better method because you may benefit sooner and can also drastically reduce your workload. Let's examine the downside differences:
(a) After laboriously tracking graduates, tallying wins, and identifying what you believe to be a KR, your horses-to-watch or Stable-Alert mechanism should provide subsequent plays to consider. However, was the race really key, has the well already run dry, etc? After a couple of wagers, you may be either a smiling winner or a scowling loser, as you delete one KR from your hot list.
(b) After you qualify a KR based on its own internal performance characteristics, you will also be able to find subsequent plays to consider. After a couple wagers, same result... you score or cut your losses by deleting a KR from your hot list.

As pointed out in previous posts, a superior final speed figure by itself does not signify a KR. What needs to be detected is the promise of competitive efforts by the also-rans, and this may require some sophistication. A friend of mine seems to do quite well with a simple but subtle method for evaluating maiden races.

Here is how it works for 6f races, the most common maiden distance. He develops class pars based on interval pace ratings for the 2f to 4f segment, including all horses except the winner that are within 10 lengths of the lead at either the 2f or 4f calls. His idea has a lot to do with the way Maidens Races are contested and dominated by early speed. If the horses that qualify to be rated produce an above-par consolidated pace rating (for the 2f to 4f interval), a key race is often indicated despite common maiden circumstances.

For example, a superior E or E/P runner trounces the field. Jockeys aboard other early speedsters begin to wrap up when their mounts show signs of faltering as the winner "appears" to re-break at the top of the stretch. Jockeys aboard P and S types may ride competitively, asking for some foot to begin a move between 2f and 4f, but they will also begin to wrap up when they realize the cause is hopeless.

By measuring the 2f to 4f pace interval, my friend claims to be measuring the field against the most revealing segment of each race. A field that scores above par for this segment holds the promise of future wins by those horses that qualified to be rated.

BTW, for those that use BRIS adjusted pace ratings (2fP and 4fP), he identifies which also-ran horses qualify to be rated, then he calculates each individual interval rating as: 2fP + (3 x (4fP - 2fP)). Why? He just claims it works (for 6f maiden races).

Any comments?

{/B}
-------------------------------------------------

BACK TO ME:

Nothing condescending or rude there. In fact, I have read this post about three or four times and now printed it out to glean all the meanings. One of the better posts I've seen on this board.

OK, so Keilan, who seems to have had a problem with VS from the get-go, responds like so:

-----------------------------
{B]
VS
Your post is essentially the long version of what others and I had written earlier with a few examples provided to help illustrate your opinion.

The “key race method” or as you described “KR identification method” is very much alive and used by many of the members on this board.

That’s one of the beautiful things about par mutual wagering. Opinions/methods are generally supported by each player’s wallet.

{/B}

-------------------------------------------

You tell me which note was condescending and rude. And you tell me who's trying to push buttons here.

This all started when VS posted jokingly that she had gotten lucky. Turns out she meant she had gotten lucky by hearing a musician's handicapping theories. A double entendre. I see it on TV all the time.

Sexists that we are, we never imagined VS to be a woman and we automatically assumed "He" was gay (not that there's anything wrong with that) and well, it went from there.

So everyone, just chill out. VS seems to be a very well-informed horseplayer who is trying to fit into a macho world with a lot of crusty right-wing types who would like to rollback the 18th Amendment (??? or was it 19th?).

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by andicap

So everyone, just chill out. VS seems to be a very well-informed horseplayer who is trying to fit into a macho world with a lot of crusty right-wing types who would like to rollback the 18th Amendment (??? or was it 19th?). [/B]

Andicap:

Patently unfair observation and totally irrelevant to the rest of a well reasoned post. I believe Keilan is Canadian and is not in position to rollback any amendments to the U.S. Constitution.

Additionally, I agree VetScratch has a tendency to be confrontational. Look at the exchange between Vetscratch and myself regarding thoroughbred ownership and licensing. The thread was about owning a thoroughbred (through claiming) for racing purposes. Yet, Vetscratch took me to task saying anyone can own a thoroughbred legally. Vetscratch' s whole issue was not even in the ballpark, as non-racing ownership, was irrelevant to the thread, as much as your comment about political ideologies.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
.....The important point here though, is that every handicapping tool by itself is limited - the power is in the knowledge of how to use a combination of factors......


fffastt

Very well put. You could let in the New Yankee Workshop and use Norm Abram's tools all day long and I assure you, no tables or cabinets, or dressers would emerge. Sawdust, yes, furniture, no way. Same tools, different fool.
:eek:

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by Tom
Very well put. You could let in the New Yankee Workshop and use Norm Abram's tools all day long and I assure you, no tables or cabinets, or dressers would emerge. Sawdust, yes, furniture, no way. Same tools, different fool.
:eek:

Hey, I'm doing some woodworking. I resemble that remark. Let's don't go there. lol

Actually, I haven't backed myself into any corners I couldn't get out of and the project is looking good, but, hey, I'm off topic. lol

[VetScratch]

I wish I had known Keilan is Canadian. We host a lot of them at the yacht club where I work part time. Real nice folks, just poor tippers. Some our local bigshots (including my kin) are big tippers but real jerks.

I hope Keilan's pari-variants bring him success at the par mutuals! :D :D

Cheers, Vettie

Here's to faster horses, older whiskey, and younger guys :)

[Fastracehorse]

I refuse to go there though because I want to go yachting.

And Andi, you really printed out VS's post?? - although I admit it has some good points, come on.

VS, if you are female you are by far the most knowledgeable female 'capper I have ever encountered.

Tom, I'm trying to eat my breakfast - LOL.

Andicap, are you female?? No condenscension here - just a thought.

:) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

fffastt

[keilan]

Please correct me if I have you mistaken you for someone else. But aren’t you the same guy who was big supporter of Karl’s (key method approach –1st method).

Both VS and I have given some reasons why we believe that approach is awkward and requires qualifiers.

Key race’s based on superior pace and speed numbers (the 2nd method) are considered by many to hold greater rewards because the “Key Race” is identified immediately and with a high degree of accuracy.

Observation only – Don’t want you to misconstrue my comments as either condescending or rude, nor am I trying to push your buttons.

Which method is your favorite now or are you the one trying to push buttons?

[VetScratch]

Keilan, Andicap, Fasterhorses, Show Me The Wire, Shacopate, all you guys.........

I really love this board, and ANY of you are welcome to tie a knot in my slip!

Well, actually, it's my dad's slip (#29), where he docks the Edmund FitzPeril when he is not sailing or drydocked. In any case, we also have guest moorings, so you are all welcome anyway. :)

[Show Me the Wire]

VetScratch:

Thanks for the invite and I hope my tip is sufficient.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Tom]

I meant to say "You could let ME in the New Yankee Workshop.."

[andicap]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Keilan, Andicap, Fasterhorses, Show Me The Wire, Shacopate, all you guys.........

I really love this board, and ANY of you are welcome to tie a knot in my slip!

Well, actually, it's my dad's slip (#29), where he docks the Edmund FitzPeril when he is not sailing or drydocked. In any case, we also have guest moorings, so you are all welcome anyway. :)


Well, that would float my boat.
Where is this mighty vessal?

[VetScratch]

Most summer weekends!

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Most summer weekends!

Winter, of course, is an entirely different ballgame!

(Not that winters are all that balmy on the L.I. Sound either, although in my wild and impetuous youth I raced as a "frostbiter" :>)

As long as we've tacked to this tangent, what is she? I'm guessing a 30' sloop would be just about the right size for your neck of the woods.

[VetScratch]

34' sloop by Ohio builder C&C

[karlskorner]

I like my way better. Yesterday at CRC, 3 Key race horses, 2 of them won, $85.80 and $31.40.

[Valuist]

BTW, what is "your way"??

[karlskorner]

It's been disccused many times in the past ( look under key races ) on this thread it's known as method #1. I didn't invent it. Davidowitz/Beyer started it, I just made one adjustment.

I have sent out over 100 pm's on it, you want a copy, just ask.

[Valuist]

I'm familiar with the Davidowitz/Beyer method. I've read books by both authors. My way originates from that method, but I go back thru every race the horse has run at the condition it just graduated from. It is a lot more work, but IMO, well worth it.

[karlskorner]

All I can offer you then, is the chart I made up, saves a lot of time.