A New Year With New Challenges

[Cratos]

We all had fun (at least I think we did) with the distance rivalry between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, but 2010 is a new year with a new racing season and a 3yo crop of new challengers (both male and female) for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.

Also there will be the late developing 3yos from last year who might have developed into very strong and competitive 4yos.

Added to all of this will be the likes of Mine that Bird and Summer Bird who will have grown up and should be tough competitors.

There will be a few surprises in 2010

[only11]

We all had fun (at least I think we did) with the distance rivalry between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, but 2010 is a new year with a new racing season and a 3yo crop of new challengers (both male and female) for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.

Also there will be the late developing 3yos from last year who might have developed into very strong and competitive 4yos.

Added to all of this will be the likes of Mine that Bird and Summer Bird who will have grown up and should be tough competitors.

There will be a few surprises in 2010
Care to throw some names around...

[Cratos]

When I started the thread about a “new Year” I didn’t have an inkling that Quality Road would come out of the gates with such a bang.

What does Quality Road win in the Donn do for the likes of MTB, Summer Bird, Zenyatta, and Rachel Alexandra?

From their past performances the first three horses of the four all have “closer” styles and would be vulnerable to being outrun by Quality Road.

Remember the Pletcher charge, Left Bank against the closer Street Cry in the 2002 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga?

Rachel might be classier than Left Bank, although not as fast, but she can run on the lead or rate off the lead; and press the pace, but it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road; and win at the Grade 1 stakes level.

Very few horses (male or female) have been able to exhibit such characteristic and of recent notable horses, Spectacular Bid was the best; and Rachel is not in the class with the ‘Bid.

Therefore what is the outlook for 2010? For the racing fan it appears to be upbeat with the expectation of excitement and for the trainer/owner it might be caution because in the older horse division the only restriction is gender and therefore Rachel would not get both the age and gender allowances that she got in the Woodward.

[Relwob Owner]

but it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road; and win at the Grade 1 stakes level.

I dont agree that RA wont be able to run and press Quality Road....she doesnt need the lead but I think it would be a toss up who gets the lead if they run....To compare, they both ran against Past the Point... if I am not mistaken, in the Woodward, RA beat Past the Point to the lead, while Past the Point easily beat Quality Road to the front........


In the Woodward, she went to the lead, fended off multiple bids and prevailed at the G1 level and I dont see any reason she cant do it again

[Charlie D]

In the Woodward, she went to the lead, fended off multiple bids and prevailed at the G1 level and I dont see any reason she cant do it again


Yes she did, but in doing so she almost handed the race to Macho Again. Against say QR, Zenyatta and with less allowances in her favour she may not prevail.

[Relwob Owner]

Yes she did, but in doing so she almost handed the race to Macho Again. Against say QR, Zenyatta and with less allowances in her favour she may not prevail.


Could be but I was responding more to his assertion of it being doubtful she can do it at the G1 level in general, rather than a race that has both QR and Zenyatta.... a Grade 1 race in general and a race with all three, to me, are very different things. Call me a pessimist, but I think the odds we will see all three in one race this year are pretty slim.

[rastajenk]

I'd call you a realist.

[Charlie D]

Could be but I was responding more to his assertion of it being doubtful she can do it at the G1 level in general, rather than a race that has both QR and Zenyatta.... a Grade 1 race in general and a race with all three, to me, are very different things. Call me a pessimist, but I think the odds we will see all three in one race this year are pretty slim.



Ah!!!, i understand RL and i would tend to agree with the above.

[andymays]

Andrew Beyer - Quality Road's Donn Handicap win at Gulfstream Park sets up an interesting 2010 horse racing season

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/08/AR2010020801843.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns

Excerpt:

Quality Road's performance changes the outlook for the entire racing season. Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta were universally expected to be the sport's big stars as they were in 2009, when Rachel beat out her rival for the horse of the year title. But as great as they are, neither of the females delivered a performance as good as Quality Road's win in the Donn. The stage may have been set for a memorable battle of the sexes.

[joanied]

Andrew Beyer - Quality Road's Donn Handicap win at Gulfstream Park sets up an interesting 2010 horse racing season

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/08/AR2010020801843.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns

Excerpt:

Quality Road's performance changes the outlook for the entire racing season. Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta were universally expected to be the sport's big stars as they were in 2009, when Rachel beat out her rival for the horse of the year title. But as great as they are, neither of the females delivered a performance as good as Quality Road's win in the Donn. The stage may have been set for a memorable battle of the sexes.

I can't wait:jump: ... Trotter may have been having a very good day...but I think we are all going to have a very good year:ThmbUp:

[Cratos]

but it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road; and win at the Grade 1 stakes level.

I dont agree that RA wont be able to run and press Quality Road....she doesnt need the lead but I think it would be a toss up who gets the lead if they run....To compare, they both ran against Past the Point... if I am not mistaken, in the Woodward, RA beat Past the Point to the lead, while Past the Point easily beat Quality Road to the front........


In the Woodward, she went to the lead, fended off multiple bids and prevailed at the G1 level and I dont see any reason she cant do it again

Quality Road ain’t no Past the Point and you are correct, Rachel did break ahead of Past the Point in the Woodward with that one getting the quarter in 23.02 and Rachel was timed in 22.87 for the 1st quarter of the race.

Although she didn’t break on top on the Woodward, she was ahead of Past the Point after ¼ mile by approximately .16 seconds or about 1 length.

In the Donn, Past the Point broke on top with a 23.21 split for the 1st quarter with Quality Road a pressing second with a quarter in 23.37.

But Rachel having been pressed all of the way in the Woodward and got the mile in 1:35.48; and came home in the last 1/8th of the 1 1/8th mile race in 12.81 to hold off a fast charging Macho Again by a head.

In the Donn Quality Road capped the 1 mile in 1:34.78 and came home in 12.71 drawing away to win by 12 ¾ lengths.

Two different racetracks and two different race shapes with a common horse in Past the Point and with a comparison that proves very little except to say again Quality Road ain’t no Past the Point.

[Relwob Owner]

Quality Road ain’t no Past the Point and you are correct, Rachel did break ahead of Past the Point in the Woodward with that one getting the quarter in 23.02 and Rachel was timed in 22.87 for the 1st quarter of the race.

Although she didn’t break on top on the Woodward, she was ahead of Past the Point after ¼ mile by approximately .16 seconds or about 1 length.

In the Donn, Past the Point broke on top with a 23.21 split for the 1st quarter with Quality Road a pressing second with a quarter in 23.37.

But Rachel having been pressed all of the way in the Woodward and got the mile in 1:35.48; and came home in the last 1/8th of the 1 1/8th mile race in 12.81 to hold off a fast charging Macho Again by a head.

In the Donn Quality Road capped the 1 mile in 1:34.78 and came home in 12.71 drawing away to win by 12 ¾ lengths.

Two different racetracks and two different race shapes with a common horse in Past the Point and with a comparison that proves very little except to say again Quality Road ain’t no Past the Point.


I think you totally missed the point of my post...it was a response to your post, where you said "it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road".....I was simply using Pass the Point as a common horse both faced in terms of pace....Rachel easily led against PTP and Quality Road did not-so, your contention that Rachel "cant run and press Quality Road" is suspect at best, isnt it????????


You also said that it is doubtful that RA can compete at a Grade 1 levelwith Zenyatta and QR and to say that about a HOY like Rachel just doesnt make any sense IMO


You say that my comparison proved very little so I am anxious to hear your proof that RA cant press QR and that it is doubtful RA can compete at a Grade 1 level.....

[Cratos]

I think you totally missed the point of my post...it was a response to your post, where you said "it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road".....I was simply using Pass the Point as a common horse both faced in terms of pace....Rachel easily led against PTP and Quality Road did not-so, your contention that Rachel "cant run and press Quality Road" is suspect at best, isnt it????????

You also said that it is doubtful that RA can compete at a Grade 1 levelwith Zenyatta and QR and to say that about a HOY like Rachel just doesnt make any sense IMO

You say that my comparison proved very little so I am anxious to hear your proof that RA cant press QR and that it is doubtful RA can compete at a Grade 1 level.....

I didn’t miss anything and I want for you to show me where a filly or mare consistently on dirt pressed a colt, horse, or gelding and won; and particularly in distance races (1 1/8th mile or greater) at the Grade 1 level..

I never said it is doubtful that Rachel can complete at the Grade 1 level with Zenyatta and Quality Road. I was a strong proponent of Rachel being HOY, but that would not make me not wager against her if she was in a race that I thought she couldn’t win.

What I said and you should read it carefully: “it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road; and win at the Grade 1 stakes level.” This statement was made in post #3, therefore please show me where I included Zenyatta in that assertion.

Your comparison proved very little because Pass the Point might have had an affect on Rachel, but absolutely nothing against Quality Road; where is the essence of the comparison?

[Relwob Owner]

I didn’t miss anything and I want for you to show me where a filly or mare consistently on dirt pressed a colt, horse, or gelding and won; and particularly in distance races (1 1/8th mile or greater) at the Grade 1 level..

I never said it is doubtful that Rachel can complete at the Grade 1 level with Zenyatta and Quality Road. I was a strong proponent of Rachel being HOY, but that would not make me not wager against her if she was in a race that I thought she couldn’t win.

What I said and you should read it carefully: “it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road; and win at the Grade 1 stakes level.” This statement was made in post #3, therefore please show me where I included Zenyatta in that assertion.

Your comparison proved very little because Pass the Point might have had an affect on Rachel, but absolutely nothing against Quality Road; where is the essence of the comparison?


I believe a typo has caused this whole disagreement and you should read what you initially wrote carefully, as you advised me to do.......you wrote “it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road; and win at the Grade 1 stakes level.” [/B] ....because of the semi colon, I thought they were two separate statements and based my response on that(if it was one statement, no punctuation would be needed so there was no reason to think it was a typo).....taken as one statement, I would still disagree a bit because I dont think it is a guarantee she will be pressing Quality Road and that she may be on the lead herself....I do think that QR may be a detriment to her winning that hypothetical G1 race though......


In your post above you say I didn’t miss anything and I want for you to show me where a filly or mare consistently on dirt pressed a colt, horse, or gelding and won; and particularly in distance races (1 1/8th mile or greater) at the Grade 1 level..........this is kind of a reach because how many filly or mares have run enough against boys consistently to be able to answer the question? There are obviously not ma ny examples.....it is pretty clear that Rachel is an exception, not the rule to such a question and any comparison to other fillies and mares dont really apply to her...

[FenceBored]

I didn’t miss anything and I want for you to show me where a filly or mare consistently on dirt pressed a colt, horse, or gelding and won; and particularly in distance races (1 1/8th mile or greater) at the Grade 1 level..

I never said it is doubtful that Rachel can complete at the Grade 1 level with Zenyatta and Quality Road. I was a strong proponent of Rachel being HOY, but that would not make me not wager against her if she was in a race that I thought she couldn’t win.

What I said and you should read it carefully: “it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road; and win at the Grade 1 stakes level.” This statement was made in post #3, therefore please show me where I included Zenyatta in that assertion.

Your comparison proved very little because Pass the Point might have had an affect on Rachel, but absolutely nothing against Quality Road; where is the essence of the comparison?

VwBVd4R5Les

[Moyers Pond]

Quality Road has proven he is better this year than he was last year, which is not surprising considering he appears to be healthy and is older.

Rachel Alexandra was brilliant last year but she is going to have to make a huge move forward to compete with a horse running beyers in the 120's. He appears to just be faster than her, but maybe she will improve. Other than her Monmouth beyer, which is sort of a joke because everyone seems to run huge beyers there, she really has not run an eye catching figure.

Zenyatta though is probably the better 10f horse than both of them.

[GaryG]

Rachel Alexandra was brilliant last year but she is going to have to make a huge move forward to compete with a horse running beyers in the 120's.As cj pointed out in another thread, that Beyer was probably several points off. Even so, a big fig over his favorite track under optimal conditions does not a champion make. Let's wait until he faces a quality field somewhere other than GP. Why don't you start another thread about hoe RA is obviously ducking QR?

[andymays]

Summer Bird being moved to new barn

http://www.drf.com/news/article/110667.html

Excerpt:

Trainer Tim Ice has been informed that he is being relieved of his duties as the trainer of champion Summer Bird as well as 24 other horses owned by K.K. and Vilasini Jayaraman. Ice, who is based at Oaklawn, said the loss of the horses will reduce his stable from 31 head to six.
"It puts me almost out of business," Ice said.

[Cratos]

I believe a typo has caused this whole disagreement and you should read what you initially wrote carefully, as you advised me to do.......you wrote “it is doubtful whether she can run and press Quality Road; and win at the Grade 1 stakes level.” [/B] ....because of the semi colon, I thought they were two separate statements and based my response on that(if it was one statement, no punctuation would be needed so there was no reason to think it was a typo).....taken as one statement, I would still disagree a bit because I dont think it is a guarantee she will be pressing Quality Road and that she may be on the lead herself....I do think that QR may be a detriment to her winning that hypothetical G1 race though......


In your post above you say I didn’t miss anything and I want for you to show me where a filly or mare consistently on dirt pressed a colt, horse, or gelding and won; and particularly in distance races (1 1/8th mile or greater) at the Grade 1 level..........this is kind of a reach because how many filly or mares have run enough against boys consistently to be able to answer the question? There are obviously not ma ny examples.....it is pretty clear that Rachel is an exception, not the rule to such a question and any comparison to other fillies and mares dont really apply to her...

Sorry about the way I punctuated my post and I understand how you might have arrived at a different understanding from it.

Also, I agree that historically there isn't a plethora of data to support fillies and mares beating male horses at a distance because in the past (and maybe today) it would be unusual to see fillies and mares in a top graded distance race on the dirt against male horses.

However Rachel did race against male horses 3 times in 2009 and won all three, but two of those races were age restricted.

[Relwob Owner]

Sorry about the way I punctuated my post and I understand how you might have arrived at a different understanding from it.

Also, I agree that historically there isn't a plethora of data to support fillies and mares beating male horses at a distance because in the past (and maybe today) it would be unusual to see fillies and mares in a top graded distance race on the dirt against male horses.

However Rachel did race against male horses 3 times in 2009 and won all three, but two of those races were age restricted.


Funny how one typo can change things....without that, I think we actually agree!

I just hope all of the three big ones stay healthy and get to meet one another at some point