Looks Like Lookin At Lucky Is Staying Put

[Quackfan]

An Exert From A Randy Moss Article In The DRF On 1/19/2010

Baffert had indicated after the Hollywood Futurity victory that Lookin at Lucky could get at least one prep race on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, but now he says that appears doubtful.

“If the track were to change or he has a hiccup with training, I might take him somewhere else,” Baffert said. “I don’t know for sure, but right now, I don’t see him traveling. I can sit right here for the Santa Anita Derby. He’s already done a lot, so I just have to keep him healthy and fit. And he’s still developing, changing, starting to fill out more and growing.”

Another factor in Lookin at Lucky’s future schedule is the other talent in Baffert’s 3-year-old arsenal, including San Rafael winner Conveyance, maiden graduate Take Control (a son of A.P. Indy and Azeri), and Tiz Chrome.

“Those other horses are starting to catch up to (Lookin at Lucky) right now,” he said. “Take Control is a serious horse. It took a long time for him to come along, but he’s caught up real fast. Tiz Chrome is another one. And Conveyance reminds me of Holy Bull. Those horses will probably be shipping. But right now, I would probably run Lookin at Lucky (in the San Felipe) and then the Santa Anita Derby

I believe Bob Baffert is just comfortable with the spacing of the races coming out of SA leading up to the Derby. He has had a lot of success following that pattern.

[tucker6]

Sounds to me that Baffert doesn't think Lookin at Lucky would give him the best chance for success at CD. The way he glows about the other horses in relation to Lucky speaks volumes, unless I'm reading too much into it.

[ManeMediaMogul]

Sounds to me that Baffert doesn't think Lookin at Lucky would give him the best chance for success at CD. The way he glows about the other horses in relation to Lucky speaks volumes, unless I'm reading too much into it.

Actually quite the opposite.

I have been told by someone very close to the situation that Baffert thinks Lookin at Lucky is his best chance for a third Derby trophy.

[sandpit]

Actually quite the opposite.

I have been told by someone very close to the situation that Baffert thinks Lookin at Lucky is his best chance for a third Derby trophy.

He's going for number four.

[egreen]

I don't remember the link, but Texas turf writer Gary West has a piece today that says Lucky may race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn on his way to Louisville. It's on Fort Worth Star-Telegram site.

[ExoticDancer]

Sorry but poly horses have little shot and can't even hit the board except for PON in the mud. I will pass on all poly horses.

[toussaud]

Sorry but poly horses have little shot and can't even hit the board except for PON in the mud. I will pass on all poly horses.


I said this 1 month ago, ver batium what was going to happen.

Lookin at lucky was going to at the end of the day, stay in California, convoyance and tiz crome will ship out to prep on the dirt

why?

Becuase the more LaL beats up on socal and racks up the grade 1's the better his stud value is going to be.

if he goes to oaklawn and gets his ass handed to him on dirt the value slips.



this proves to me that baffert thinks about this horse exactly what I think about him.. he's a slow turf horse. the longer he can keep up the game the better value he can get for LaL.


this is what is going to happen and save this thread.

LaL will not hit the board in the derby, he will come up with some mysterious injury and be retired to stud.

baffert is just maximizing his clients horse flesh's potetial and i don't' blame him for that.

but we have seen this game play out time and time again and it amazes me how people fall for it every year.

[Moyers Pond]

Sorry but poly horses have little shot and can't even hit the board except for PON in the mud. I will pass on all poly horses.

Isn't mud dirt?

Just because a horse races on poly does not mean he/she is a poly horse. Look at Zenyatta. She toyed with an Eclipse winner on the dirt.

This horse will like the dirt or he won't. He is a Smart Strike just like Curlin and his bottom is fine for dirt. He justs looks like a good horse no matter what he runs on.

This horse right now is clearly the horse to beat, but I wouldn't bet him at the current future odds.

American Lion is a poly horse, and there is no doubt in my mind he will love the dirt.

[joanied]

An Exert From A Randy Moss Article In The DRF On 1/19/2010

Baffert had indicated after the Hollywood Futurity victory that Lookin at Lucky could get at least one prep race on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, but now he says that appears doubtful.

“If the track were to change or he has a hiccup with training, I might take him somewhere else,” Baffert said. “I don’t know for sure, but right now, I don’t see him traveling. I can sit right here for the Santa Anita Derby. He’s already done a lot, so I just have to keep him healthy and fit. And he’s still developing, changing, starting to fill out more and growing.”

Another factor in Lookin at Lucky’s future schedule is the other talent in Baffert’s 3-year-old arsenal, including San Rafael winner Conveyance, maiden graduate Take Control (a son of A.P. Indy and Azeri), and Tiz Chrome.

“Those other horses are starting to catch up to (Lookin at Lucky) right now,” he said. “Take Control is a serious horse. It took a long time for him to come along, but he’s caught up real fast. Tiz Chrome is another one. And Conveyance reminds me of Holy Bull. Those horses will probably be shipping. But right now, I would probably run Lookin at Lucky (in the San Felipe) and then the Santa Anita Derby

I believe Bob Baffert is just comfortable with the spacing of the races coming out of SA leading up to the Derby. He has had a lot of success following that pattern.

I hate to second guess Baffert...he is the man...but me thinks it a mistake to keep Lucky in CA...IMO, he would benefit greatly with one race on dirt prior to the Derby...even if it's a loosing effort, at least he'll have had a chance to feel dirt under his tooties.

Always like the Tiznow's...Tiz Chrome included. Baffert comparing Conveyance to Holy Bull is scary...in a very good way...
but, alas, the one I was holding onto, Take Control, Baffert's serious horse...out for a while...he has sore shins and won't make the Derby...crap, crap, crap!!

[toussaud]

I hate to second guess Baffert...he is the man...but me thinks it a mistake to keep Lucky in CA...IMO, he would benefit greatly with one race on dirt prior to the Derby...even if it's a loosing effort, at least he'll have had a chance to feel dirt under his tooties.

Always like the Tiznow's...Tiz Chrome included. Baffert comparing Conveyance to Holy Bull is scary...in a very good way...
but, alas, the one I was holding onto, Take Control, Baffert's serious horse...out for a while...he has sore shins and won't make the Derby...crap, crap, crap!!
i actually can clearly see the comparision. they are very very similar.


wait until he gets on dirt.. he will be the talk of the town. he's running in freaking quicksand.

[joanied]

i actually can clearly see the comparision. they are very very similar.


wait until he gets on dirt.. he will be the talk of the town. he's running in freaking quicksand.

I can't wait:jump: :jump: :jump:

I am totally bummed about Take Control, though...what a shame. He must not have had the chance to buck shins, and now, I am affraid he might be plauged with sore shins a lot of the time...not a good thing.

[Cardus]

I am boxing "ver batium", "me thinks" and "loosing".

[joanied]

I am boxing "ver batium", "me thinks" and "loosing".

:confused: huh :confused:

[ManeMediaMogul]

Sorry but poly horses have little shot and can't even hit the board except for PON in the mud. I will pass on all poly horses.

Two out of the last three Kentucky Derby (G1) winners have raced and trained on Polytrack - Mine That Bird at Woodbine and Street Sense at Keeneland.

Big Brown and Barbaro made the transition from turf to dirt, so it would seem, at least in recent history, the surface a horse races on as he preps is not a big factor in determining the Derby winner.

[joanied]

Two out of the last three Kentucky Derby (G1) winners have raced and trained on Polytrack - Mine That Bird at Woodbine and Street Sense at Keeneland.

Big Brown and Barbaro made the transition from turf to dirt, so it would seem, at least in recent history, the surface a horse races on as he preps is not a big factor in determining the Derby winner.

true enough...it's not a big factor, unless it is...I actually think it's easier for a horse to go from the poly to dirt, than from dirt to poly...but, IMO, would you want to take that chance? Wouldn't you want to try dirt before the Derby and see how your horse performs? I'd get that last 'prep' on dirt and then stay at Churchill until Derby day...but, as I have said many times, Baffert knows what he's doing (duh:D )....it's just that if it were me...I would want to be safe rather than sorry.

[Spalding No!]

i actually can clearly see the comparision. they are very very similar.

I assume by "clearly" and "very similar" you are refering to their coat colors and running styles. The comparison ends there, especially if we're talking race record up to this point in their 3yo years.

I never saw Holy Bull lean against the rail with his head bent to the right while running on the wrong lead down the stretch.

Conveyance's best shot of emulating Holy Bull is to have breathing problems in his next start causing his rider to pull him up.

[bisket]

my concern with lucky coming from poly to dirt is the dirt flying in his face factor. he'll handle dirt just fine. he has leaned on horses to make room, and run through tight spots. a horse like lucky that doesn't have the early speed to get position in the front. needs to be able to do those two things to win. although if he gets intimidated from dirt flying into his face all the other stuff doesn't amount to a hill of beans because he than has to run an outside race.
pon handled dirt just fine, but just wasn't brought up to the race correctly. baffert had to win early and often with pon because if he didn't he probably wouldn't have seen another zayat runner again. lucky will be in every one of my exotics derby day.

[toussaud]

I assume by "clearly" and "very similar" you are refering to their coat colors and running styles. The comparison ends there, especially if we're talking race record up to this point in their 3yo years.

I never saw Holy Bull lean against the rail with his head bent to the right while running on the wrong lead down the stretch.

Conveyance's best shot of emulating Holy Bull is to have breathing problems in his next start causing his rider to pull him up.


while I understand you are trying to be funny, nothing looks brilliant on synethic surfaces. nothing.

hell zenyatta is the best mare since personal ensign and people here still thinks she's slow.


it will tell you everything if his next prep is not at Santa Anita. that will tell you everything you need to know.

[Spalding No!]

it will tell you everything if his next prep is not at Santa Anita. that will tell you everything you need to know.

Clearly.

Especially if its at Sunland Park.