Try this handicapping exercise...

[cj]

This one has helped me quite a bit. When handicapping a card, designate each horse with a +, a 0, or a -. The + is for horses you think will improve off their last race, the 0 is those that stay the same, and the - is for those that will decline. I only do this for horses I consider contenders, not hopeless ones.

Use whatever figures you generally look at, Beyer, BRIS, etc.

I use Beyer scaled figures, so I consider +/- 3 to be staying the same. When I get the charts later in the week, I look back at what I have marked and note how I did. If you can be right a decent majority (60%) of the time, you have a big advantage. If you aren't, look back and see what you might have missed. Most winners improve quite a bit over their previous running line, so its definitely a start in the right direction.

[JimG]

CJ,

I like your approach. When handicapping the old fashion way (pen and form) I designate a horse as a +, 0. or - It's amazing how much your first impression is right and it helps to get to contenders. Also, in races with many + horses, I know it will be contentious.


Jim

[andicap]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski


I use Beyer scaled figures, so I consider +/- 3 to be staying the same..

Do you mean that if you project an improvement or decline of 3 pts or less it's really a "0."?
Do you predict HOW MANY points a horse will improve or regress?

Excellent exercise.

[cj]

Andi,

Yes, I do mean the +/-3 is like a push, pretty much held form of last race. Beyer scale, 3 points is only just over a length sprinting, nearer to two routing.

I don't predict how many points. If its oustide the +/-3, its usually pretty substantial in relation to the odds.

[sq764]

For harness racing, I used to use a basic method when I first started (and probably should still be using it)..

I gave a point for the following:

- If a horse was racing 2nd off a layoff
- If a horse improved 2 or more post positions
- A point for the top last quarters last out
- A point for the top 3 money earners this year
- A point for any driver and trainer who both had over 10% win


It was rare to get a 5 pointer, but when you did, it was golden.

[cj]

Guess I should mention how I use the info...

+ horses are prime bets

0 horses are possible bets

- horses are no bets

I will look real close at all the + horses, as most of my bets come from this group. I will bet 0 horses if they have a substantial figure edge or appear competitive and the price is inviting. They are also very good horses for the bottom half of exactas. I do not bet - horses in the top slot, and rarely even for second.

[Fastracehorse]

That is a very useful exercise.

fffastt

[ceejay]

Originally posted by sq764
For harness racing, I used to use a basic method when I first started (and probably should still be using it)..

I gave a point for the following:

- If a horse was racing 2nd off a layoff
- If a horse improved 2 or more post positions
- A point for the top last quarters last out
- A point for the top 3 money earners this year
- A point for any driver and trainer who both had over 10% win


It was rare to get a 5 pointer, but when you did, it was golden.

Was your Post position improvement for all tracks or just the 1/2 mile ones?

[sq764]

It was for all tracks, BUT, 'better post' on a half mile track can be relative..

For a mile track, getting post 6 after having post 9 is a nice improvement. But on the 1/2 mile track, getting 6 over 9 on a track where the 9 starts from the 2nd tier is actually a negative pp change.

[Shacopate]

According to Cardello, the average winning horse runs 10 Beyer speed figure points higher than its last race.

The late William L. Scott wrote an entire book on the subject called "How will your horse run today?" using a technique similar to CJs.

Unlocking the form cycle mystery is one of the keys to successful handicapping.

[sq764]

For an amateur or newcomer who would read this board, its possible that their head would explode..

Fraction handicapping
Pace Handicapping
Trainer Angles
Class Angles
Beyer Figs...

Is there really a way to tie it all together or do newcomers need to pick their niche and run with it??

[keilan]

My approach is very similar and goes something like this.
1) Estimate pace number
2) Project a final figure number for each horse i.e. L80’S-M8O’S–H80’S based on that pace number
3) For horse’s that are sitting on expected move forward F+ (form)

Try to predict if BO/off or Lasix will improve.

Try to estimate whether a horse changing from dirt to turf or vise versa is the ideal running surface.

Jockey and barn change considerations.

Obviously there is a lot more but the above is an essential part of my handicapping process. This exercise has helped me understand fitness and form cycles at another level then was previous

The human mind/computer can process all this information and much more in a very brief time frame.

[Tom]

Good way to train, CJ....will try it out.
Got a new twist on an old idea from Heuy Mall I am trying out rihgt now....I lay my pencil over the column with the Beyers in it so I have to handicap the race with no speed figs. I write down my top three selections, then go back and do normal handicapping and writhe down my top three again. Any horse on both lists is a play if the odds warrant, but any horse on the first list and not the second is one I want ot really look out for. Out of the first 20 races I did this way, I got two big priced place horses that I would never have gotten a week ago. The race is to the swiftest, but the place is open for negotiation.

[andicap]

Originally posted by sq764
For an amateur or newcomer who would read this board, its possible that their head would explode..

Fraction handicapping
Pace Handicapping
Trainer Angles
Class Angles
Beyer Figs...

Is there really a way to tie it all together or do newcomers need to pick their niche and run with it??

I would pick a niche to concentrate on and learn generally about the rest. You can win without trainer or class angles if you do pace and beyer figs and have some idea about form for example.

Or you can ignore beyer and pace and concentrate on trainer angles if you're willing to keep a lot of records.

[Shacopate]

How to put it all together is the 10 million dollar question. Nobody knows, or has at least proven it yet.

As for newbies,

Information overload can lead to frustration.

I would highly recommend that you try CJs exercise. As a matter of fact, I dare you. Most people aren't willing to put in the work that it takes to be successful.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by Shacopate
How to put it all together is the 10 million dollar question. Nobody knows, or has at least proven it yet.

As for newbies,

Information overload can lead to frustration.

I would highly recommend that you try CJs exercise. As a matter of fact, I dare you. Most people aren't willing to put in the work that it takes to be successful.

There are people who are proving it every day. We call them professionals. You are right, though, it is a lot of hard work, more hard work than most people are willing to sustain.

[sq764]

The reason I ask is (well two reasons) - 1) I am mainly a harness guy and 2) I had a friend say to me that he wanted to start to bet t-breds and wanted my advice on how to start to handicap..

That is like asking what the best way to kill yourself is.

My best advice to him, since he is a bigtime newcomer, is to watch 20 or 30 races, mark down the winners and start to see what types of horses win. Focusing on the factors that might point out why this horse won.

Its just a start, but its the best I could offer for a newbie.

[ranchwest]

SQ74,

When I mentioned to a pro that a friend of mine was considering getting into racing, his suggestion was for him to go to the races for a year without placing a wager. That would:

1) Avoid those early losses
2) Develop or fortify patience
3) Provide an education

I doubt if anyone would do it, but....

[BIG HIT]

Tell him to try turfpeda.com has lot of info methods and what to expect.I thinf it jim quin site it is a good place two start for some one very new.

[Shacopate]

I was referring to the magic bullet. The one-size fits all handicapping approach that works for every race. Of course, every race is different and must be handled differently.

[ranchwest]

Thanks, I misunderstood.