markgoldie
01-20-2010, 02:49 PM
The following is some results from research I did a while back involving favorites and the pace of the race.
(1) Favorites perform the best in races where the pace is slow. They perform worse in races where the pace is fast.
(2) In a race which is paceless on paper, favorites tend to find the front end with great regularity even if the favorite is not a regular speed type.
(3) Favorites who have at least some ability to leave will outperform favorites with no ability to leave.
(4) The DEGREE of favortism affects the pace of the race with the bigger the favorite, the SLOWER the pace of the race will tend to be. Since favorites perform best in slow-paced races, this tends to become a "self-fulfilling" prophecy, meaning that the bigger the favorite a horse is, the greater the tendency for him to (a) find the front end and (b) have an uncontested pace.
(5) The larger the field, the faster the pace tends to be. Therefore, the larger the field, the worse the expected performance of the favorite.
(6) The post position of a front-speed favorite affects the pace of the race. The further out from the rail, the faster the pace will tend to be, generally because more horses inside will tend to "take a shot" at a two-hole trip behind the favorite.
(7) The overall ability of the field to display front speed, that is, the number of front runners in the field is not very predictive of the pace of the race. In fact, field size is a better predictor of pace than the number of front runners.
Hopefully someone may find something useful in this.
(1) Favorites perform the best in races where the pace is slow. They perform worse in races where the pace is fast.
(2) In a race which is paceless on paper, favorites tend to find the front end with great regularity even if the favorite is not a regular speed type.
(3) Favorites who have at least some ability to leave will outperform favorites with no ability to leave.
(4) The DEGREE of favortism affects the pace of the race with the bigger the favorite, the SLOWER the pace of the race will tend to be. Since favorites perform best in slow-paced races, this tends to become a "self-fulfilling" prophecy, meaning that the bigger the favorite a horse is, the greater the tendency for him to (a) find the front end and (b) have an uncontested pace.
(5) The larger the field, the faster the pace tends to be. Therefore, the larger the field, the worse the expected performance of the favorite.
(6) The post position of a front-speed favorite affects the pace of the race. The further out from the rail, the faster the pace will tend to be, generally because more horses inside will tend to "take a shot" at a two-hole trip behind the favorite.
(7) The overall ability of the field to display front speed, that is, the number of front runners in the field is not very predictive of the pace of the race. In fact, field size is a better predictor of pace than the number of front runners.
Hopefully someone may find something useful in this.