Zenyatta to race in 2010!

[andymays]

Reported by Brad Free and just announced on HRTV!

Developing Story..............................

[Dahoss9698]

I just put the link to the drf article in the other thread. I wonder if someone tipped them off Zenyatta wasn't going to win HOY?

http://drf.com/news/article/110161.html

[andymays]

Rachel will win HOY and these two will face each other at least twice this year. Good for racing.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Whoaaaa!!!!

I just heard this myself in the background on TVG.This is going to be a great year.The 2 biggest stars in racing in 2009 back in the saddle again baby!!!Woo hooo!!!

[Wickel]

HRTV's Peter Lury just interviewed Jerry Moss and he confirmed that Zenyataa, indeed, will race in 2010. Bring Rachel on!!

[turfnsport]

I hope they meet up at Los Al!!

[gm10]

Fantastic news. Jerry Moss ... RESPECT.

[PaceAdvantage]

The biggest non-surprise surprise to hit racing in years...:lol:

At least we can count this as some good news for racing (for a change)...can't wait to see these two back in action, and I can't wait for them to finally race each other.

I'm sure when Rachel beats Zenyatta, the ol' "well, that wasn't really fair...Rachel is just entering her prime, while Zenyatta might have peaked as a 5yo" excuse will be placed into the rotation...;)

BTW, all those folks at those two "farewell" parties in SoCal (including the Terminator himself) must feel pretty short changed at this moment....

[letswastemoney]

I hope they meet up at Los Al!!
Eh? lol

[joanied]

Dahoss posted this in the other thread...I replied and thought this news should have it's own thread...

:jump: :jump: :) :jump: :jump: I am at a loss for words, I cannot catch my breath, and my heart is racing... as cincy says...wooooo-hoooo:jump: ...and this is gonna make the HoY announcment even better (if that's possible)...do ya think the voters are considering going back and fixing this so they both win HoY title :D

I am simply awed by the news...and wonder what kind of reaction the Jackson camp had...I would love to have seen it;)

I gotta go take a rest...this has taken it all out of me for a little while...wish I could turn on TVG/HRTV...but husband is watching something...gggrrr:)

At any rate...woooooo-weeeeeeee:jump:

[Greyfox]

I luv Zenyatta and bet against her several times. I'm going to get another chance to try and beat her again. Any race she enters the odds on the others move significantly UP.

[PaceAdvantage]

and wonder what kind of reaction the Jackson camp hadWell, seeing as he has always been a very sporting owner who has spotted Rachel in some very difficult and competitive positions that other owners would have bypassed for easier spots, I'm sure he is relishing the thought of taking on Zenyatta over a dirt surface.

[andymays]

Well, seeing as he has always been a very sporting owner who has spotted Rachel in some very difficult and competitive positions that other owners would have bypassed for easier spots, I'm sure he is relishing the thought of taking on Zenyatta over a dirt surface.

The Brainiacs in California and at Santa Anita are trying to figure out how quickly they can change back to dirt as we speak. :lol:

Maybe they should have another meeting of the CHRB. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

In a way, I'm glad Zenyatta has been hyped to the moon since her BC victory. I hope this had an impact on the Moss' decision to keep her going. It's a sporting move and I commend them for it...

This super hype may also be Zenyatta's undoing, because facing Rachel on a dirt course is not going to be the same as beating up on a bunch of handicapped dirt runners, a half-crippled Euro, and a turf horse or two on your home synth track.

[cj]

The biggest non-surprise surprise to hit racing in years...:lol:

At least we can count this as some good news for racing (for a change)...can't wait to see these two back in action, and I can't wait for them to finally race each other.

I'm sure when Rachel beats Zenyatta, the ol' "well, that wasn't really fair...Rachel is just entering her prime, while Zenyatta might have peaked as a 5yo" excuse will be placed into the rotation...;)

BTW, all those folks at those two "farewell" parties in SoCal (including the Terminator himself) must feel pretty short changed at this moment....

Exactly, how is this a surprise? I thought it was a foregone conclusion. It is good news, we need more of this in the game.

[letswastemoney]

In a way, I'm glad Zenyatta has been hyped to the moon since her BC victory. I hope this had an impact on the Moss' decision to keep her going. It's a sporting move and I commend them for it...

This super hype may also be Zenyatta's undoing, because facing Rachel on a dirt course is not going to be the same as beating up on a bunch of handicapped dirt runners, a half-crippled Euro, and a turf horse or two on your home synth track.
But...but...she beat Ginger Punch and Brownie Points on the dirt :)

No I agree with you actually. Go RA!

[GaryG]

I don't believe they said anything about racing her out of California....did they?

[letswastemoney]

I don't believe they said anything about racing her out of California....did they?
Why would they play it safe again though? I feel like that would defeat the purpose of bringing her back. They need to tie up loose ends.

[Rialto]

I can't stop smiling :)

:)

[toussaud]

I predict she will run her first race at santa anita and probably the hollywood gold cup. the rest of ther aces will be out of the state

[Ian Meyers]

Very sporting decision by the Mosses. I agree with letswastemoney, et all. I imagine we'll see her outside of California this year. I don't think they'd bring her back unless they wanted to expand her horizons.

[Rialto]

I just put the link to the drf article in the other thread. I wonder if someone tipped them off Zenyatta wasn't going to win HOY?

http://drf.com/news/article/110161.html

excellent point about them getting tipped off about HOY... Wow, I thought Zenyatta should win the award! The horses that rachel beat didnt perform well at all coming out of the races she won.... Zenyatta OWNED the ladies classic winner, (lifeis sweet)

[djjoe21]

Maybe she can win the race they named in her honor. Bet thats never been done.

[PaceAdvantage]

Exactly, how is this a surprise? I thought it was a foregone conclusion.Read my first line again:

"the biggest non-surprise surprise" is what I wrote...

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe she can win the race they named in her honor. Bet thats never been done.Now that's trippy....:lol:

[cj]

Read my first line again:

"the biggest non-surprise surprise" is what I wrote...

Yes, I was agreeing with you.

[toetoe]

BTW, all those folks at those two "farewell" parties in SoCal (including the Terminator himself) must feel pretty short changed at this moment....


Oh, I feel longchanged. Just thinking about it, I go ... :bang: .

[The Hawk]

Yes, I was agreeing with you.

Good parenting move. Don't fight in front of the kids.

It will be interesting to see who lays out their plan first. The other camp would then be compelled to make at least one of those races. If Zenyatta maps out a schedule first, and it's all synthetic, we may not see a match-up at all. If we have to wait until the BC I'm afraid at least one of them won't make it that far, due to a loss or an "injury", real or made-up. I hope it happens early in the year, we can use a day like that in the game.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, I was agreeing with you.I need a vacation...:D

[tzipi]

THIS STINKS! THIS IS SO BAD FOR RACING! WHAT A SHAME! I'M DONE!





;) Ha jk. YESSSSSSSSSSSSS THIS IS SO AWESOME! Moss you rock! OK girls let's go!!!!!!!!

[Dahoss9698]

excellent point about them getting tipped off about HOY... Wow, I thought Zenyatta should win the award! The horses that rachel beat didnt perform well at all coming out of the races she won.... Zenyatta OWNED the ladies classic winner, (lifeis sweet)

Didn't Rachel own the winners of the Acorn, Test, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Gazelle, etc, etc?

[ExoticDancer]

Zenyatta is the best on a synthetic surface but taking on an older Rachel on dirt is crazy and a no win situation for dear Zenyatta. I saw Zenyatta beat Ginger Punch on dirt but Rachel as a 3 year old crushed some of the best males in the world last year. No doubt Zenyatta is the best on a dry synthetic track but to suggest she can now take on a bigger and stonger Rachel is kind of asking a bit much.

[Steve R]

For all the excitement this is generating, the fact remains that 2009 was the year they should have met. This year the mystique and drama of the 3yo facing the older horse is gone, and unless both horses maintain their 2009 form and retain their current winning streaks before they meet, the confrontation will be anti-climatic. Even if they are as they were, they would have to meet at least twice, one would have to win both and at least one victory would have to be on the "wrong" surface. I'm hoping for the best, although the probability of a definitive resolution is quite small IMO. Personally, I'm much more interested in the upcoming 3yo campaign and the 2yos to follow.

[joanied]

At this point, I am not going to allow anything negative to ruin the moment...already I see the 'what if's' beginning...:eek: :faint: :eek: ...

IMO, I think after watching Zenyatta at the barn/on the track, since the Classic, that SHE told them she isn't ready for motherhood just yet :) ...
they probably regret the farewell parties, but I would like to think that at that time, they really had plans to retire her...at any rate, it is a very sporting thing for them to do...and no doubt the entire barn will party tonight to celebrate her non retirement:D I would.

It would be almost funny if SA starts tearing up that plastic and return to dirt just to get Rachel out there...

Anyway...let's just savor this...talk about good vibrations...I can feel them here in Wyoming:ThmbUp:

If racing doesn't 'cash in' on this...they deserve to be kicked in the head...either mare will do:lol:

So, by way of a minor miracle, every race fan, hard core, or casual can look foward to a fantastic year ahead... with the Triple Crown and our two most incredible mares, and some other very nice horses coming back...and the BC on DIRT...
holyshit = :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: and then some:jump:

[andymays]

Zenyatta is the best on a synthetic surface but taking on an older Rachel on dirt is crazy and a no win situation for dear Zenyatta. I saw Zenyatta beat Ginger Punch on dirt but Rachel as a 3 year old crushed some of the best males in the world last year. No doubt Zenyatta is the best on a dry synthetic track but to suggest she can now take on a bigger and stonger Rachel is kind of asking a bit much.


It's about time we got an Exotic Dancer around here! ;)

Welcome to the board! :ThmbUp:

[miesque]

At this point, I am not going to allow anything negative to ruin the moment...already I see the 'what if's' beginning...:eek: :faint: :eek: ...

:jump:

Absolutely agree! :ThmbUp:

This news totally made my day, I literally broke out the Champagne shortly after hearing it. :cool:

[ExoticDancer]

Steve, I don't understand that post at all. To suggest a Zenyatta vs Rachel race would not be the biggest thing in racing in more then a decade seems strange at best. Maybe I misunderstood you ? I am new here are you serious?

[ExoticDancer]

Thank you. Just found this board and it's great to see so many smart fans of horse racing.

[Citation1947]

Whoaaaa!!!!

The 2 biggest stars in racing in 2009 back in the saddle again baby!!!Woo hooo!!!

This is the kind of stuff that could save horse racing. Hopefully it's just the beginning of what use to be.

[joanied]

This is the kind of stuff that could save horse racing. Hopefully it's just the beginning of what use to be.

I am thinking the Mosses and Sherriff's decided to go 17 straight...and take the title for that accomplishment from Cigar and your namesake;)

[Steve R]

Steve, I don't understand that post at all. To suggest a Zenyatta vs Rachel race would not be the biggest thing in racing in more then a decade seems strange at best. Maybe I misunderstood you ? I am new here are you serious?
My point was that unless the two are at the same respective levels they were last year and both have kept their winning streaks alive, their meeting will have less significance than it would otherwise. And it would be "the biggest thing in racing" in name only. Also, I think it is likely that either one or both will not reproduce last year's form. You have to understand, I never was one of those who felt they just had to face one another in the first place. I view AWSs and dirt as two different, not complementary surfaces. I didn't see any more reason for them to meet than I did for same-year dirt and turf champions of the past. Many cling to the idea that dirt and AWSs are simply variations of one another. I don't, so I never regretted that they went their separate ways. This is not Dr. Fager vs Damascus or even Affirmed vs Alydar. And it's only the biggest thing in racing in a decade if it's the same Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta we saw last year. If not, which I think is likely, it's just two very good G1 older females running against each other and probably on a surface that one prefers and the other doesn't. Seriously, would you be satisfied if Rachel Alexandra beat Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom or Zenyatta beat Rachel Alexandra in the Vanity?

[joanied]

Thank you. Just found this board and it's great to see so many smart fans of horse racing.

Welcome to Pace Advantage...you picked on a winner with this group...all Grade 1's :ThmbUp: :) :ThmbUp:

[joanied]

Absolutely agree! :ThmbUp:

This news totally made my day, I literally broke out the Champagne shortly after hearing it. :cool:

Drink a glass for me, miesque ...it is a day to celebrate...my feet haven't touched the ground yet:jump:

[bisket]

The biggest non-surprise surprise to hit racing in years...:lol:

At least we can count this as some good news for racing (for a change)...can't wait to see these two back in action, and I can't wait for them to finally race each other.

I'm sure when Rachel beats Zenyatta, the ol' "well, that wasn't really fair...Rachel is just entering her prime, while Zenyatta might have peaked as a 5yo" excuse will be placed into the rotation...;)

BTW, all those folks at those two "farewell" parties in SoCal (including the Terminator himself) must feel pretty short changed at this moment....
i got news for ya. zen is gonna beat rachel.

[joanied]

This is going to make Stardom Bound's race tomorrow even more important...I hope she has found her winning ways...so she can join in the dance:jump:

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Great news. Zenyatta to win 3 Breeders Cups and race into equine immortality

[Kimsus]

This is the way it should be, let them settle it on the track. No excuses for either camp...Lost in all this is she is within the non Pepper's Pride win streak set by Citation and Cigar. For a race fan this is as good as it gets.

[Cardus]

Absolutely agree! :ThmbUp:

This news totally made my day, I literally broke out the Champagne shortly after hearing it. :cool:

As Nick Buonticonti, Mercury Morris and I will do sometime this year.

[Steve R]

This is the way it should be, let them settle it on the track. No excuses for either camp...Lost in all this is she is within the non Pepper's Pride win streak set by Citation and Cigar. For a race fan this is as good as it gets.
The are always excuses. That's how connections always play it. If Rachel Alexandra beats Zenyatta on dirt, the Zenyatta camp will have an excuse - a legitimate one. If Zenyatta beats Rachel Alexandra on an AWS, the Rachel Alexandra camp will have an excuse - also a legitimate one. Then there is always the Zenyatta lost a step excuse or the Rachel Alexandra peaked at three excuse. When there is money and there are egos on the line, there will be excuses. And there will be the same bickering on this forum.

Forgive the cynicism, but I won't apologize for not deluding myself into thinking this will do anything to forestall the decline of Thoroughbred racing. That will come when takeouts are reduced, track admission and parking fees are eliminated, race day medication is no longer permitted and drug violators and horse abusers are banned for life.

[Kimsus]

The are always excuses. That's how connections always play it. If Rachel Alexandra beats Zenyatta on dirt, the Zenyatta camp will have an excuse - a legitimate one. If Zenyatta beats Rachel Alexandra on an AWS, the Rachel Alexandra camp will have an excuse - also a legitimate one. Then there is always the Zenyatta lost a step excuse or the Rachel Alexandra peaked at three excuse. When there is money and there are egos on the line, there will be excuses. And there will be the same bickering on this forum.

Forgive the cynicism, but I won't apologize for not deluding myself into thinking this will do anything to forestall the decline of Thoroughbred racing. That will come when takeouts are reduced, track admission and parking fees are eliminated, race day medication is no longer permitted and drug violators and horse abusers are banned for life.

Sadly I agree, let's just hope whoever wins or loses. People are man enough to own up and admit they could be wrong. I said earlier this week Rachel should win HOY, but I believed Zenyatta was the better horse. Let's hope they will meet sometime this year to decide it, it seems to me Sheriffs and The Moss's have thrown the gauntlet down by saying they will ship this year and they feel Zenyatta is better on dirt. I agree on the latter part. The ball's in Jess Jackson's court now.

[tzipi]

The ball's in Jess Jackson's court now.

The ball's in both their courts. They and racing will have to somehow get together so we can have something good and not a year of no one facing eachother.

[Dahoss9698]

The are always excuses. That's how connections always play it. If Rachel Alexandra beats Zenyatta on dirt, the Zenyatta camp will have an excuse - a legitimate one. If Zenyatta beats Rachel Alexandra on an AWS, the Rachel Alexandra camp will have an excuse - also a legitimate one. Then there is always the Zenyatta lost a step excuse or the Rachel Alexandra peaked at three excuse. When there is money and there are egos on the line, there will be excuses. And there will be the same bickering on this forum.

Forgive the cynicism, but I won't apologize for not deluding myself into thinking this will do anything to forestall the decline of Thoroughbred racing. That will come when takeouts are reduced, track admission and parking fees are eliminated, race day medication is no longer permitted and drug violators and horse abusers are banned for life.

I don't think you have to worry about Rachel running in a race on an AWS. And, according to Team Zenyatta, she is better on dirt (I don't buy it, I mean, why only run a horse on their best surface once) but they said it.

So, while I understand your point and certainly respect the glass half empty nature of it. The only real legitimate excuses will be if something happens in the race, if they should meet.

I do agree this isn't going to save racing. It's cool she's coming back, but the real problems still exist.

[Cardus]

I don't think you have to worry about Rachel running in a race on an AWS. And, according to Team Zenyatta, she is better on dirt (I don't buy it, I mean, why only run a horse on their best surface once) but they said it.

So, while I understand your point and certainly respect the glass half empty nature of it. The only real legitimate excuses will be if something happens in the race, if they should meet.

I do agree this isn't going to save racing. It's cool she's coming back, but the real problems still exist.

Agreed. Zenyatta returning is fluff when discussing repairing racing.

[OntheRail]

This is good news for sure... but I think they should reinstate the Lady's Secret which I thought is was a shame they change it in the first place.

[Greyfox]

Exactly, how is this a surprise? I thought it was a foregone c
onclusion. It is good news, we need more of this in the game.'

Hopefully, you are better at calling
this out than you were last hear about Afganhistan.
And You were there.

[bisket]

the only hope rachel has of winning against zenyatta is if the race is at 1 1/16 mile. i'm telling ya zenyatta is faster!!!!!!

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I'm so glad the Big Z is back for another year. I was getting pretty upset just thinking of that huge physical specimen heading over to Kentucky to take it easy for the rest of her life. She has plenty of years left to do that and they made the right decision. Why retire a horse in their prime?

I'm circling June 12 on my calendar for the RA / Zenyatta showdown. Churchill Downs - 1-1/8 miles $600,000 Grade 1 Stephen Foster. I bet they up that amount to $1-2 Million. A perfect meeting ground for them. Perfect distance and surface for RA, plus they were originally gonna run Zenyatta there earlier this year and since the Breeders Cup is there, I'm sure they'd like to test out the surface.

Its perfect timing too since its a week after the Belmont, and you can promote the heck out of it during the triple crown coverage when the casual fans are tuning in. In my mind I think that Zen is just a bit better than Rachel but Rachel looks like a monster at Churchill. Borel says she just glides over the surface. Wherever they meet, it will be the race of a lifetime.

[bks]

I'm sure when Rachel beats Zenyatta, the ol' "well, that wasn't really fair...Rachel is just entering her prime, while Zenyatta might have peaked as a 5yo" excuse will be placed into the rotation...

Doesn't matter when Zenyatta may have peaked. If Shirreffs puts her in the race against Rachel, and it's a real race with other horses of quality, go to the window.

I love how it's completely overlooked that Rachel was life-and-death against a middlin' G1 field of older males that Zenyatta would have crushed. Crushed.

Remember that after they finally meet. You had the information.

[Dahoss9698]

Doesn't matter when Zenyatta may have peaked. If Shirreffs puts her in the race against Rachel, and it's a real race with other horses of quality, go to the window.

I love how it's completely overlooked that Rachel was life-and-death against a middlin' G1 field of older males that Zenyatta would have crushed. Crushed.

Remember that after they finally meet. You had the information.

Interesting how you are completely overlooking that Zenyatta was life and death to get up over monsters like Anaabas Creation. Why is that?

[letswastemoney]

Doesn't matter when Zenyatta may have peaked. If Shirreffs puts her in the race against Rachel, and it's a real race with other horses of quality, go to the window.

I love how it's completely overlooked that Rachel was life-and-death against a middlin' G1 field of older males that Zenyatta would have crushed. Crushed.

Remember that after they finally meet. You had the information.Zenyatta never crushes any group of horses.

[PhantomOnTour]

"Lets get it on!"
-Chuck D

[classhandicapper]

......because facing Rachel on a dirt course is not going to be the same as beating up on a bunch of handicapped dirt runners, a half-crippled Euro, and a turf horse or two on your home synth track.

I can't believe your attitude on this.

Seriously, for the life of me I can't comprehend why so many bright people can't appreciate that greatness is greatness regardless of the surface the horse races on or distance it excels at.

The Classic was the strongest field assembled in 2009 by FAR even if a few of the dirt horses were disadvantaged. There was a Grade 1 winning Euro turfer that fired, a multiple Grade 1 winning US turfer that ran huge, and Summer Bird ran quite well to be only beaten by the first older legit Grade 1 winners he ever faced. That doesn't count all the other Grade 2 and weak Grade 1 types (you know the Macho Again and Bullsbay type) with solid synth form that got demolished and verified the elite Grade 1 nature of the race.

These are two unique great horses whose specialty is different.

I can't imagine the critics of Rachel asking her to face Goldikova at 1M on turf and expecting that to prove anything. Nor would I expect them to ask Rachel to face the eqivalent of a peak Safely Kept going 6F on dirt.

Everyone with half a brain knows that Rachel will have an enormous advantage going 9F on dirt, but that says nothing at all about the greatness of the other. Heck, I think Goldikiva would piss on Rachel at 8F on turf, but it simply doesn't matter.

Only one of these horses has actually tried elite company on both surfaces and won and only one dared take on Grade 1 colts at the Classic distance of 1oF and won.

If they really want to "try to make it fair" they should meet at 10F on dirt. That way the surface disadvantage could be offset by a distance preference. It would also give Rachel the chance to prove that she can beat real Grade 1 Colts (and Zenyatta) at the BC Classic distance.

[Sundown]

Looks like I'll be taken a trip this year.

[classhandicapper]

If they really want to "try to make it fair" they should meet at 10F on dirt. That way the surface disadvantage could be offset by a distance preference. It would also give Rachel the chance to prove that she can beat real Grade 1 Colts (and Zenyatta) at the BC Classic distance.

I should restate this.

We really don't know if there is a surface or distance preference. (at least I don't)

Make that paragraph:

If they really want to "try to make it fair" they should meet at 10F on dirt in a full field. That would give Rachel the chance to prove that she can beat real Grade 1 Colts (and Zenyatta) at the BC Classic distance. Anything else would be unfair because 8.5F or 9F on dirt are the exact conditions under which Rachel excels.

Even though Rachel's connections mapped out an enormously difficult campaign, I think we all know deep in our hearts they opted out of the Travers and Belmont at least "partly" (key word "partly", I know there were other legit reasons) because she looked vulnerable going longer against colts at 9.5F in the Preakness.

[bks]

Interesting how you are completely overlooking that Zenyatta was life and death to get up over monsters like Anaabas Creation. Why is that?

Rachel was trying desperately (and gamely, and successfully) to hold off horses coming at her. She was at the bottom of her tank. And that was her 'A' race.

Zenyatta, on the other hand, had she lost, would have lost because she was not permitted to run her race. She wasn't at the bottom of ANY tank. She's never been near her bottom.

Rachel has been. There's a big difference.

[Dahoss9698]

Rachel was trying desperately (and gamely, and successfully) to hold off horses coming at her. She was at the bottom of her tank. And that was her 'A' race.

Zenyatta, on the other hand, had she lost, would have lost because she was not permitted to run her race. She wasn't at the bottom of ANY tank. She's never been near her bottom.

Rachel has been. There's a big difference.

I disagree the Woodward was Rachel's "A" race. I actually think Borel almost blew it, by getting her involved in the pace like she was. I think the Haskell was her "A" race. She's much more effective stalking the pace than setting it.

How do you know Zenyatta has never been near her bottom? Did she tell you? I find the assumption and hyperbole involved with this horse so fascinating.

[PhantomOnTour]

Just read on Illmans blog thru one of his posters that the word has been leaked:

Zenyatta has won the Eclipse for HOTY. As you know the votes are already in.

Has ANYONE heard ANYTHING to this effect?

[letswastemoney]

Just read on Illmans blog thru one of his posters that the word has been leaked:

Zenyatta has won the Eclipse for HOTY. As you know the votes are already in.

Has ANYONE heard ANYTHING to this effect?Are we to believe some random dude on a blog without any credible source to back him up?

[PhantomOnTour]

One more thing:

If Rachel and Zen do face each other what will the weights be? Rachel would have gotten lbs from Zen last year as a 3yr old, but I think she would still get a few from the secretary this year.

Personally I think Zen is headed to Dubai, which makes a race v Rachel iffy, and all but eliminates the Apple Blossom. The Stephen Foster? I'm sure CD would make it 1m3/16 or 1m1/4 to make the matchup fair in terms of distance v surface. Or some track will write a race for them? The Personal Ensign at 1m1/4 at Saratoga would seem to be the most attractive site to me.

[PhantomOnTour]

Are we to believe some random dude on a blog without any credible source to back him up?
I dunno, thats why i am seeking the input of some more random dudes on the net.

[letswastemoney]

One more thing:

If Rachel and Zen do face each other what will the weights be? Rachel would have gotten lbs from Zen last year as a 3yr old, but I think she would still get a few from the secretary this year.

Personally I think Zen is headed to Dubai, which makes a race v Rachel iffy, and all but eliminates the Apple Blossom. The Stephen Foster? I'm sure CD would make it 1m3/16 or 1m1/4 to make the matchup fair in terms of distance v surface. Or some track will write a race for them? The Personal Ensign at 1m1/4 at Saratoga would seem to be the most attractive site to me.Considering how much they worry about shipping her to east coast tracks.... I don't think they'd go to Dubai...

[PhantomOnTour]

The logic behind this says that Rachel won the Eclipse and Zen's connections wanna settle it on the track, like it should be. If we could get Summer Bird and maybe even Quality Road in the mix what a grand race it would be.

As for Dubai...maybe not, but its her kinda surface.

[PaceAdvantage]

'

Hopefully, you are better at calling
this out than you were last hear about Afganhistan.
And You were there.Please, allow me...I insist:

WTF?

[PaceAdvantage]

the only hope rachel has of winning against zenyatta is if the race is at 1 1/16 mile. i'm telling ya zenyatta is faster!!!!!!You said the same thing 12 posts prior...

[PaceAdvantage]

If they really want to "try to make it fair" they should meet at 10F on dirt in a full field. That would give Rachel the chance to prove that she can beat real Grade 1 Colts (and Zenyatta) at the BC Classic distance.Who are these "real Grade 1 Colts" you speak of?

]Even though Rachel's connections mapped out an enormously difficult campaign, I think we all know deep in our hearts they opted out of the Travers and Belmont at least "partly" (key word "partly", I know there were other legit reasons) because she looked vulnerable going longer against colts at 9.5F in the Preakness.That's balderdash. In fact, I just watched the Preakness again...I contend that had the Preakness been 10f, Rachel still would have won....she's still 3/4 of a length in front as they leave view of the camera, many strides past the wire, and as we all know, she held the lead through the gallop-out...

[PaceAdvantage]

Just read on Illmans blog thru one of his posters that the word has been leaked:

Zenyatta has won the Eclipse for HOTY. As you know the votes are already in.

Has ANYONE heard ANYTHING to this effect?Why should this surprise anyone? I've already posted that I expect Zenyatta to win HOY handily.

In fact, I propose a special Eclipse Award be given to the Moss' on Monday night.

Here is how such an award may sound as it is being announced:

"The How to influence HOY voters WITHOUT having to ship a case of wine to their door award goes to.......Jerry and Ann Moss!" [cue applause]

Jerry's an old' Hollywood guy...he knows that award voters LOVE to give awards to folks who are about to die, or about to retire, or have recently died or recently retired...so they say to themselves "Hey, I bet we could get a few more HOY votes if we fake-retire Zenyatta...then voters will think this is their last chance to honor Zenyatta with a HOY eclipse....It's like money in the bank Ann!"

This whole "Zenyatta retired" thing was most likely a bit of a con from the get go.

It makes Jackson's "Have a case of wine on me" look like child's play in comparison.

Bravo Mr. & Mrs. Moss. Well played!

[letswastemoney]

Why should this surprise anyone? I've already posted that I expect Zenyatta to win HOY handily.

In fact, I propose a special Eclipse Award be given to the Moss' on Monday night.

Here is how such an award may sound as it is being announced:

"The How to influence HOY voters WITHOUT having to ship a case of wine to their door award goes to.......Jerry and Ann Moss!" [cue applause]

Jerry's an old' Hollywood guy...he knows that award voters LOVE to give awards to folks who are about to die, or about to retire, or have recently died or recently retired...so they say to themselves "Hey, I bet we could get a few more HOY votes if we fake-retire Zenyatta...then voters will think this is their last chance to honor Zenyatta with a HOY eclipse....It's like money in the bank Ann!"

This whole "Zenyatta retired" thing was most likely a bit of a con from the get go.

It makes Jackson's "Have a case of wine on me" look like child's play in comparison.

Bravo Mr. & Mrs. Moss. Well played!
That's actually quite brilliant if it's true...but hopefully Rachel can prove her superiority over Zenyatta over the track.

[Jasonm921]

I'm an admitted Rachel fan and a Zenyatta skeptic. With that said its great that the Mosses are letting their athlete be an athlete. Whatever happens on the track between the two will be great for us and the sport. Athletes belong on the field when they are at their best. 2010 should be one of the best racing years in recent memory.

[gm10]

In a way, I'm glad Zenyatta has been hyped to the moon since her BC victory. I hope this had an impact on the Moss' decision to keep her going. It's a sporting move and I commend them for it...

This super hype may also be Zenyatta's undoing, because facing Rachel on a dirt course is not going to be the same as beating up on a bunch of handicapped dirt runners, a half-crippled Euro, and a turf horse or two on your home synth track.

I think Zenyatta is at least as good on dirt as she is on the synthetics. She'll run RA to pieces in any dirt race at 9F or longer. This isn't some glorified version of Macho Again that RA will be facing.

[gm10]

Why should this surprise anyone? I've already posted that I expect Zenyatta to win HOY handily.

In fact, I propose a special Eclipse Award be given to the Moss' on Monday night.

Here is how such an award may sound as it is being announced:

"The How to influence HOY voters WITHOUT having to ship a case of wine to their door award goes to.......Jerry and Ann Moss!" [cue applause]

Jerry's an old' Hollywood guy...he knows that award voters LOVE to give awards to folks who are about to die, or about to retire, or have recently died or recently retired...so they say to themselves "Hey, I bet we could get a few more HOY votes if we fake-retire Zenyatta...then voters will think this is their last chance to honor Zenyatta with a HOY eclipse....It's like money in the bank Ann!"

This whole "Zenyatta retired" thing was most likely a bit of a con from the get go.

It makes Jackson's "Have a case of wine on me" look like child's play in comparison.

Bravo Mr. & Mrs. Moss. Well played!

I don't know the details but presumably the votes have already been cast and Monday is just about announcing the results?
-----

It was certainly the case in 2009. The Eclipse Awards were announced on 26 Jan, while ...

"Voting Overview
In voting that concluded Jan. 5, 2009, Eclipse Awards voters cast their ballots to rank the top three horses and individuals in each championship division on a 10-5-1 point system basis. This voting established the top three finalists in each division, the names of which were released on Jan. 8, 2009. Eclipse Award winners, however, were determined by first-place votes only."

[bks]

I disagree the Woodward was Rachel's "A" race. I actually think Borel almost blew it, by getting her involved in the pace like she was. I think the Haskell was her "A" race. She's much more effective stalking the pace than setting it.

I agree she is more effective this way. It comes with its own issues, though. In the Woodward it would have meant being somewhere behind bigger horses and perhaps having to deal with traffic and race-riding gamesmanship.

How do you know Zenyatta has never been near her bottom? Did she tell you? I find the assumption and hyperbole involved with this horse so fascinating.

The undefeated mare who easily ran past a BC Classic field in the stretch is the subject of fascinating hyperbole and assumption?

Regarding bottom, I am going on visual impression, jockey and trainer comments.

Zenyatta has raced primarily on synthetic. She's also a dead closer. The combination of the two conspires to tend to diminish final margins. When she DID race on dirt, against a very good and unfairly disparaged mare (the reigning champion at the time), her margin of victory was more impressive. She CRUSHED that field, despite taking it easy.

[classhandicapper]

Who are these "real Grade 1 Colts" you speak of?

That's balderdash. In fact, I just watched the Preakness again...I contend that had the Preakness been 10f, Rachel still would have won....she's still 3/4 of a length in front as they leave view of the camera, many strides past the wire, and as we all know, she held the lead through the gallop-out...

IMO we have already seen the best of RA. IMO fillies develop sooner and are at an advantage "in that way" over colts in the spring and early summer. That's why the great ones they have tended to do well in the Triple Crown preps and even Triple Crown races, but not in the Classic against older horses. IMO RA peaked last year. Colts tend to keep developing through the fall and sometimes right into their 4YO year. So I think horses like Quality Road and Summer Bird have a very good chance to develop further (is Summer Bird even coming back?). In addition, there are typically a couple of late bloomers that get their act together in their 4YO campaign. I don't think there will be a shortage of true Grade 1 dirt competition this year like last year unless we have a string of bad luck. I Want Revenge is also back in training. You never know about him.

Even though Mine that Bird was eventually exposed as a horse that was never quite as good as his Derby looked (golden rail trip), he was making up some serious ground on Rachel in the Preakness while she was fully extended. I think RA connections wanted no part of 12F in the Belmont and would have avoided that race even if there was better spacing.

By the time the Travers came along. Summer Bird was starting to act like a real racehorse and Quality Road was coming back. They handled Summer Bird at 9F in his "prep" for the Travers, but IMO wanted no part of him at 10F.

All connections are the same. They all want to earn as much money and gain as much prestige as possible while avoiding risk. IMO, her connections know she's more vulnerable at 10F against Grade 1 male horses. In fact, despite the very difficult trip in the Woodward, if there was actually a few Grade 1 colts in that race (at 9F!) she would have finished off the board and we probably wouldn't even be having this debate. Then I would be arguing she ran great that day despite finishing off the board. ;)

[Moyers Pond]

In a way, I'm glad Zenyatta has been hyped to the moon since her BC victory. I hope this had an impact on the Moss' decision to keep her going. It's a sporting move and I commend them for it...

This super hype may also be Zenyatta's undoing, because facing Rachel on a dirt course is not going to be the same as beating up on a bunch of handicapped dirt runners, a half-crippled Euro, and a turf horse or two on your home synth track.

Rachel won't even be able to beat Quality Road this year. Zenyatta will mop her up in a 10f dirt race, yes the Classic distance, you know the one Rachel has yet run. She sure looked like she could handle it holder off that monster MTB at 9.5f and the awesome Macho Again in a 9f race. :lol:

Rachel will be lucky to get any check at all in the BCC, a race Zenyatta will have won on dirt and synthetic by the end of the year in her campaign as the greatest horse ever.

[Kimsus]

I don't think you have to worry about Rachel running in a race on an AWS. And, according to Team Zenyatta, she is better on dirt (I don't buy it, I mean, why only run a horse on their best surface once) but they said it. di
So, while I understand your point and certainly respect the glass half empty nature of it. The only real legitimate excuses will be if something happens in the race, if they should meet.

I do agree this isn't going to save racing. It's cool she's coming back, but the real problems still exist.

I think Zenyatta will have no problem switching to dirt, I base this on her one dirt race at Oaklawn and not anything that has been said by Moss or Sheriffs influenced this. I just happen to agree 100%. I don't know why so many seem to ignore this race, maybe it was so long ago that it has been forgotten. It was one of her easiest wins lengths wise, you mentioned she was life and death to beat A Creation and in a way you brought up a salient point. Races on Poly are rarely as impressive as dirt races, horses move late and the results are usually closer than dirt wins. Poly results can be random as we witnessed with Richard's Kid or Furthest Land this year, the best horse has less margin of error on poly which makes Zenyatta's unbeaten streak even more remarkable.

[the little guy]

Let's be honest....there is nothing Zenyatta can't do.

I, for one, can't wait until the New York Turf Writers Cup. 2 1/4 over the jumps should fit her like a glove.

And, after that, she should get to work on achieving World Peace.

Rachel Alexandra, of course, will be losing 10K claimers at Penn National.

[Steve R]

Rachel won't even be able to beat Quality Road this year. Zenyatta will mop her up in a 10f dirt race, yes the Classic distance, you know the one Rachel has yet run. She sure looked like she could handle it holder off that monster MTB at 9.5f and the awesome Macho Again in a 9f race. :lol:

Rachel will be lucky to get any check at all in the BCC, a race Zenyatta will have won on dirt and synthetic by the end of the year in her campaign as the greatest horse ever.
Time to refill the prescription for your meds. This sort of elation is definitely bipolar related.

[ZephyrHawk]

Is it wrong that I'm questioning the decision not to annouce Zenyatta's return until after the Eclipse votes have been counted? Seems like a shrewd move to me when voters could have ultimately been swayed by the idea that Rachel would have another chance in 2010 that Zenyatta wouldn't get.

And for the record, I'm a fan of both fillies, although I do have a preference for this HOY decision.

[W2G]

In the battered landscape that is the horse racing industry, this is that rare thing known as good news. Now only if Z and RA's mythical rivalry could become a real rivalry on the racetrack... lest we get too greedy.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I am so,so,so glad these two are racing this year.That way these 10 page topics galore set on repeat will subside:cool:

[turfnsport]

For all the excitement this is generating, the fact remains that 2009 was the year they should have met. This year the mystique and drama of the 3yo facing the older horse is gone, and unless both horses maintain their 2009 form and retain their current winning streaks before they meet, the confrontation will be anti-climatic.

Anti-climatic? Are you serious?
These are two horses the PUBLIC has actually heard of.
There actually will be mainstream interest in this.

Say they meet in the Apple Blossom.

I doubt after the race you will say, "Gee, that was anti-climatic." :lol:

[Steve R]

Anti-climatic? Are you serious?
These are two horses the PUBLIC has actually heard of.
There actually will be mainstream interest in this.

Say they meet in the Apple Blossom.

I doubt after the race you will say, "Gee, that was anti-climatic." :lol:
Try working on your reading comprehension. I believe I stipulated that unless they retain their best form of 2009, the outcome would be anti-climatic. Of course, you might get excited if one or both came into the race off a couple of losses to lesser horses, and that's your prerogative. Or you might draw a conclusion if one wins and the other runs 5th or 6th beaten 10 lengths. If, hopefully, they are noses apart at the wire, I will be as thrilled as anybody.

As for public recognition, that will last about five minutes. A recent e-mail survey I conducted of 20 educated friends and associates aged mid-20s to late-60s and including both genders revealed that only one had ever heard of Curlin, the reigning two-time HotY.

If you really want to get excited about something that actually will benefit racing, then get out there and lobby for lower takeouts, no race day medication and lifetime bans for drug violators and horse abusers. The industry loves these horse on horse match-ups because they divert attention from the real issues that are destroying the sport.

If you find my lack of euphoria disconcerting, over the last 40 years I've seen confrontations between many horses far superior to either of these.

[stu]

I would love to see Zenyatta race Rachel Alexandra in the Pimlico Special (http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#/group.php?gid=282770642362&ref=nf)

[letswastemoney]

I think Zenyatta is at least as good on dirt as she is on the synthetics. She'll run RA to pieces in any dirt race at 9F or longer. This isn't some glorified version of Macho Again that RA will be facing.
These aren't turf horses Zenyatta will be facing either if she goes east. Zenyatta would be facing dirt horses on a dirt track. Dirt horses that are better than Ginger Punch.

[Dahoss9698]

Regarding bottom, I am going on visual impression, jockey and trainer comments.

Zenyatta has raced primarily on synthetic. She's also a dead closer. The combination of the two conspires to tend to diminish final margins. When she DID race on dirt, against a very good and unfairly disparaged mare (the reigning champion at the time), her margin of victory was more impressive. She CRUSHED that field, despite taking it easy.

Jockey and trainer comments huh? That's always a good source.

We'll agree to disagree about how good that reigning champion was that Zenyatta defeated or as you put it CRUSHED. Did you see what was behind Ginger Punch in her champion year? Oh that's right, we can only disparage who Rachel beats.

[GMB@BP]

If you go on figures, so we use the 1 1/16th figures then RA is at least 10 lengths faster.....are people blind to the figures.

This is a no contest.

6YO mares don't beat 4YO's, even if they had even talent.

[turfnsport]

As for public recognition, that will last about five minutes. A recent e-mail survey I conducted of 20 educated friends and associates aged mid-20s to late-60s and including both genders revealed that only one had ever heard of Curlin, the reigning two-time HotY.


Wow, that's a newsflash.
WTF does 20 educated friends never having heard of Curlin have to do with Zenyatta vs. Rachel Alexandra?

Ask those same 20 if they have heard of either of the females, and I'm sure your % will go up.

Then ask those same 20 if they know what takeout is.

[classhandicapper]

Let's be honest....there is nothing Zenyatta can't do.

I, for one, can't wait until the New York Turf Writers Cup. 2 1/4 over the jumps should fit her like a glove.

And, after that, she should get to work on achieving World Peace.

Rachel Alexandra, of course, will be losing 10K claimers at Penn National.

I really hope they both hold their best form. Even though IMHO they both have already sealed their "all time great" credentials in iron, they could both do some things this year we'd all like to see.

IMO, Zenyatta ran well in a solid field on dirt while extremely lightly raced and IMO before she reached her peak. But we'd all like to see a few more starts on dirt before calling her as good on dirt as synth. Personally, I would also love to see her on turf because for all we know that may be her best surface given how turf/synthetic form translates and her incredible kick.

I'd like to see Rachel face a field of solid older Grade 1 older colts. I'd also like to see her face a few solid Grade 1 older mares. She toyed with very inferior 3YO fillies early on and the Alabama winner (name escapes me) came along later on. Maybe she will be back and we can see a few competitive filly races or we will see her toy with other top fillies also. Either way, I'd like to see it.

[Dahoss9698]

I'd like to see Rachel face a field of solid older Grade 1 older colts. I'd also like to see her face a few solid Grade 1 older mares. She toyed with very inferior 3YO fillies early on and the Alabama winner (name escapes me) came along later on. Maybe she will be back and we can see a few competitive filly races or we will see her toy with other top fillies also. Either way, I'd like to see it.

Just out of curiousity, who are these supposed solid grade 1 older colts and mares? Aside from Quality Road and maybe Blame, who? She beat the best grade 1 older colts last year in the Woodward.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Let's be honest....there is nothing Zenyatta can't do.

I, for one, can't wait until the New York Turf Writers Cup. 2 1/4 over the jumps should fit her like a glove.

And, after that, she should get to work on achieving World Peace.

Rachel Alexandra, of course, will be losing 10K claimers at Penn National.

This type of sarcasm is totally warranted and appreciated, one of the funniest posts I've read in some time.

I nominate this post for "Post of the Week."

[Steve R]

Wow, that's a newsflash.
WTF does 20 educated friends never having heard of Curlin have to do with Zenyatta vs. Rachel Alexandra?

Ask those same 20 if they have heard of either of the females, and I'm sure your % will go up.

Then ask those same 20 if they know what takeout is.
I hope you didn't take my "five minutes" comment literally. Or perhaps you did.

The point was that barely a year after Curlin had been all over the sports pages for the previous 18 months, a group of people who actually read newspapers, and had obviously at least seen his name, were clueless as to his identity. A couple of years from now, almost no one outside the racing community will be able to tell you if Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra won their match-up. Some may have a vague recollection of the names. Hardly any will be able to identify them. There has never been a horse in the recent history of racing that has had a long-term impact on the sport's popularity. Not Secretariat. Not Seattle Slew, Affirmed or Spectacular Bid. Not the fan favorite, John Henry. And not Cigar. The filly and the mare won't, either.

From my own perspective of seriously following racing for over 40 years, this match-up doesn't do a lot for me. I saw Dr. Fager vs Damascus and Buckpasser. I saw Seattle Slew vs Affirmed and Affirmed vs Spectacular Bid. I saw Cigar vs Skip Away and, as a young boy, I even saw Swaps vs Nashua. This doesn't come remotely close, although I suppose it's the best we have at the moment. But don't fool yourself into thinking this is one for the ages. This is the MTV generation concept of greatness, like a Beyonce-Justin Timberlake duet instead of a Frank Sinatra-Ella Fitzgerald duet.

[classhandicapper]

Just out of curiousity, who are these supposed solid grade 1 older colts and mares? Aside from Quality Road and maybe Blame, who? She beat the best grade 1 older colts last year in the Woodward.

See my post above.

[classhandicapper]

I hope you didn't take my "five minutes" comment literally. Or perhaps you did.

The point was that barely a year after Curlin had been all over the sports pages for the previous 18 months, a group of people who actually read newspapers, and had obviously at least seen his name, were clueless as to his identity. A couple of years from now, almost no one outside the racing community will be able to tell you if Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra won their match-up. Some may have a vague recollection of the names. Hardly any will be able to identify them. There has never been a horse in the recent history of racing that has had a long-term impact on the sport's popularity. Not Secretariat. Not Seattle Slew, Affirmed or Spectacular Bid. Not the fan favorite, John Henry. And not Cigar. The filly and the mare won't, either.

From my own perspective of seriously following racing for over 40 years, this match-up doesn't do a lot for me. I saw Dr. Fager vs Damascus and Buckpasser. I saw Seattle Slew vs Affirmed and Affirmed vs Spectacular Bid. I saw Cigar vs Skip Away and, as a young boy, I even saw Swaps vs Nashua. This doesn't come remotely close, although I suppose it's the best we have at the moment. But don't fool yourself into thinking this is one for the ages. This is the MTV generation concept of greatness, like a Beyonce-Justin Timberlake duet instead of a Frank Sinatra-Ella Fitzgerald duet.

Steve,

I think you are viewing this entirely out of context.

This is not debate about whether a peak Steffie Graf could beat a peak Pete Sampras or Roger Federer or which of those two guys was better. It's a debate about whether Graf could beat Serena Willams. I think every tennis fan would love to see that match.

[Dahoss9698]

See my post above.

You listed zero mares and Quality Road and Summer Bird. I wouldn't count on Summer Bird being the same after his injury. So you're just hoping someone develops and at that point they will become a solid grade 1 horse?

[turfnsport]

I hope you didn't take my "five minutes" comment literally. Or perhaps you did.

The point was that barely a year after Curlin had been all over the sports pages for the previous 18 months, a group of people who actually read newspapers, and had obviously at least seen his name, were clueless as to his identity.

I don't recall Curlin being "all over the sports pages for the previous 18 months."

Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra will capture the mainstream attention this year a thousand times more than Curlin ever did.

I'd elaborate more but "Decade of Cribs" is is coming on MTV2!

[11cashcall]

Well, seeing as he has always been a very sporting owner who has spotted Rachel in some very difficult and competitive positions that other owners would have bypassed for easier spots, I'm sure he is relishing the thought of taking on Zenyatta over a dirt surface.



Seing that the Moss's are intent on running Z-One on dirt this yr,Dubai is not on the radar,so a dirt campaign can now be charted.This much is certain.
Also seeing that RA will no longer be restricted to 3-yr olds,TIME will reveal the true nature of Jackson & Co no show at SA this fall.

[nijinski]

I can't believe your attitude on this.

Seriously, for the life of me I can't comprehend why so many bright people can't appreciate that greatness is greatness regardless of the surface the horse races on or distance it excels at.

The Classic was the strongest field assembled in 2009 by FAR even if a few of the dirt horses were disadvantaged. There was a Grade 1 winning Euro turfer that fired, a multiple Grade 1 winning US turfer that ran huge, and Summer Bird ran quite well to be only beaten by the first older legit Grade 1 winners he ever faced. That doesn't count all the other Grade 2 and weak Grade 1 types (you know the Macho Again and Bullsbay type) with solid synth form that got demolished and verified the elite Grade 1 nature of the race.

These are two unique great horses whose specialty is different.

I can't imagine the critics of Rachel asking her to face Goldikova at 1M on turf and expecting that to prove anything. Nor would I expect them to ask Rachel to face the eqivalent of a peak Safely Kept going 6F on dirt.

Everyone with half a brain knows that Rachel will have an enormous advantage going 9F on dirt, but that says nothing at all about the greatness of the other. Heck, I think Goldikiva would piss on Rachel at 8F on turf, but it simply doesn't matter.

Only one of these horses has actually tried elite company on both surfaces and won and only one dared take on Grade 1 colts at the Classic distance of 1oF and won.

If they really want to "try to make it fair" they should meet at 10F on dirt. That way the surface disadvantage could be offset by a distance preference. It would also give Rachel the chance to prove that she can beat real Grade 1 Colts (and Zenyatta) at the BC Classic distance.

If Rip Van Winkle was the GR1 Euro runner you refer to , I recall the talented horse was questionable to enter and was plagued with foot problems .

[Steve R]

I don't recall Curlin being "all over the sports pages for the previous 18 months."

Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra will capture the mainstream attention this year a thousand times more than Curlin ever did.

I'd elaborate more but "Decade of Cribs" is is coming on MTV2!
What you recall is irrelevant. The NY Times ran 137 feature stories on Curlin between his AK Derby win and his second HOY award. The LA Times, 121. The Chicago Tribune, 101. All over the country. An average of more than one story a week for almost 2 years. You should read more newspapers.

I'm looking forward to the thousand times more mainstream attention for the mares. Imagine. A thousand stories a week about Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. I hope I can keep up.

[Steve R]

If Rip Van Winkle was the GR1 Euro runner you refer to , I recall the talented horse was questionable to enter and was plagued with foot problems .
Not to mention an incredibly dumb ride and the unpredictable effects of a surface switch, a 6,000-mile plane ride and a huge climate change.

[nijinski]

Being Zenyatta will never spend time in a detenton barn ,(NY tracks) it could end up
that Shireff and Moss will control the situation and that could end up with two
greats never meeting,
You can bash me now but I have to say Zenyatta has had the more coddled
career of the two.

[Saratoga_Mike]

What you recall is irrelevant. The NY Times ran 137 feature stories on Curlin between his AK Derby win and his second HOY award. The LA Times, 121. The Chicago Tribune, 101. All over the country. An average of more than one story a week for almost 2 years. You should read more newspapers.

I'm looking forward to the thousand times more mainstream attention for the mares. Imagine. A thousand stories a week about Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. I hope I can keep up.

Gosh this is hard to believe...could you please provide the dates for just 15 articles?

[harntrox]

Anyone who has had the opportunity to watch Zenyatta in the paddock at Del Mar or SA knows that there is something unique about that horse, from its double-wide ass to its double-length gait, her awareness of the crowd, and the obvious intelligence in her face. You have to be there to see this, the camera just doesnt cut it.

According to Mike Smith, she runs only as fast as she needs, and, as a result, even he has no idea what she is capable of. Caused me grief to see him say goodbye to the horse, on the 'last ride' of that stupid useless goodbye- hype party.

Z simply won the genetic lottery
Z will beat R because genetics arent fair

[Steve R]

Gosh this is hard to believe...could you please provide the dates for just 15 articles?
From the NY Times, these are the top 15 in order of "relevance", whatever that is.

Curlin Repeats As Horse Of the Year, 1/27/09
Curlin Is Off a Steroid And on a Roll Once Again, 7/10/08
Curlin Will Stay With What Wins and Return to Dirt, 8/6/08
Curlin Has More at Stake Than Consecutive Victories in the Classic, 10/22/08
Curlin Sets Earnings Mark; Showdown Could Be Next, 09/28/08
Curlin Will Defend Title in Breeders' Cup Classic, 10/15/08
Curlin May Be Best, but Now He Can Prove It, 10/25/08
Curlin Prepares to Face Another Tough Opponent: Turf, 7/9/08
In First Test On Grass, Curlin Finishes 2nd, 7/13/08
Big Brown And Curlin Are Unlikely To Meet, 8/14/08
Raven's Pass, Charging in the Stretch, Spoils the Coronation for Curlin, 10/26/08
Curlin, in U.S. Return, Wins 5th Straight Race, 6/15/08
Curlin Edges Long Shot in Woodward, 8/31/08
Big Brown vs. Curlin? A Track May Offer $5 Million, 6/6/08
Curlin, '07 Horse of Year, Is Unlikely to Race Again, 11/16/08

[turfnsport]

What you recall is irrelevant. The NY Times ran 137 feature stories on Curlin between his AK Derby win and his second HOY award. The LA Times, 121. The Chicago Tribune, 101. All over the country. An average of more than one story a week for almost 2 years. You should read more newspapers.

I'm looking forward to the thousand times more mainstream attention for the mares. Imagine. A thousand stories a week about Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. I hope I can keep up.

NY Times 137 "feature stories"....C'mon dude, what are you smoking?

I guess if 93 words is a feature story you might be right. :lol:

[11cashcall]

Anyone who has had the opportunity to watch Zenyatta in the paddock at Del Mar or SA knows that there is something unique about that horse, from its double-wide ass to its double-length gait, her awareness of the crowd, and the obvious intelligence in her face. You have to be there to see this, the camera just doesnt cut it.

According to Mike Smith, she runs only as fast as she needs, and, as a result, even he has no idea what she is capable of. Caused me grief to see him say goodbye to the horse, on the 'last ride' of that stupid useless goodbye- hype party.

Z simply won the genetic lottery
Z will beat R because genetics arent fair



Less facts,more sportsmanship plz ;)

[Steve R]

Anyone who has had the opportunity to watch Zenyatta in the paddock at Del Mar or SA knows that there is something unique about that horse, from its double-wide ass to its double-length gait, her awareness of the crowd, and the obvious intelligence in her face. You have to be there to see this, the camera just doesnt cut it.

According to Mike Smith, she runs only as fast as she needs, and, as a result, even he has no idea what she is capable of. Caused me grief to see him say goodbye to the horse, on the 'last ride' of that stupid useless goodbye- hype party.

Z simply won the genetic lottery
Z will beat R because genetics arent fairCan you explain in some detail what qualities are unique to Zenyatta that, say, Secretariat or Affirmed or Spectacular Bid did not have? Were they dumb or physically inferior or unaware of their surroundings? If you want to read about a horse with as complex an equine personality as one could ever imagine, look up some stories about John Henry.

She runs only as fast as she needs? I assume, then, that Smith is just a passenger and that she decides her pace and position. He's just along for the ride, I guess. Tell me, if you can, how, when she is 10 lengths behind on the turn, she "knows" just how fast the horses in front of her are going to run the last part of the race. Is she getting her information from Alison DuBois in "Medium"?

Can we get past this anthropomorphic nonsense and focus on the actual biomechanical and physiological qualities that describe a race horse?

[sandpit]

Not to mention an incredibly dumb ride and the unpredictable effects of a surface switch, a 6,000-mile plane ride and a huge climate change.

The ride one gets is pointless when it comes to the horse's level of talent and if you are backing the horse, you have to believe it will get a good ride. However, the surface change has a well documented effect. However, the long flight and climate change are something nearly every horse in the BC faced. Some of them handled it, like Goldikova, and some didn't.

[Steve R]

NY Times 137 "feature stories"....C'mon dude, what are you smoking?

I guess if 93 words is a feature story you might be right. :lol:
I'm not going to debate you over the term "feature story." Your contention was that Curlin never got extensive media coverage. He did. And all over the country for almost two years. Then, of course, there are magazine articles, TV stories, internet stories,etc. But if you want to continue playing the fool, be my guest. I'm still anticipating that "thousand times" more coverage upcoming for Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. No exaggeration there.

[jballscalls]

If Zenyatta comes back this year, if she runs and wins the Zenyatta Handicap, would she be the first horse to win a stakes race named after themselves?

[turfnsport]

I'm not going to debate you over the term "feature story." Your contention was that Curlin never got extensive media coverage. He did. And all over the country for almost two years. Then, of course, there are magazine articles, TV stories, internet stories,etc. But if you want to continue playing the fool, be my guest. I'm still anticipating that "thousand times" more coverage upcoming for Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. No exaggeration there.

Only one person is "playing the fool" in this thread, and that's you.

By your definition of a "feature story", there WILL be a thousand times more coverage this year of Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra.

[classhandicapper]

If Rip Van Winkle was the GR1 Euro runner you refer to , I recall the talented horse was questionable to enter and was plagued with foot problems .

The horse that finished 3rd was a Grade 1 winner.

Rip Van Winkle was one of the best horses in Europe, but I think it's pretty clear he didn't fire his "A" race. So I think he's irrelevant to the conversation.

Plus, what some people fail to realize is that when she ran by those Grade 1 turfers, she didn't struggle to get past despite the fact they were finishing really well. She went by them like they were a bunch of mules indicating a difference in ability that is understated by the winning margin (much like all the rest of her races). That's a phenomenon much somewhat unique to turf and synth racing and why some people kept underestimating her.

[classhandicapper]

You listed zero mares and Quality Road and Summer Bird. I wouldn't count on Summer Bird being the same after his injury. So you're just hoping someone develops and at that point they will become a solid grade 1 horse?

Quality Road and Summer Bird will be back. I want Revenge is back in training. There are almost always a few late developers. There are a few horses that could try dirt after decent form on synthetic etc....

At the start of some years it looks like it's going to be a great year but then everyone disappoints or gets hurt. At other times, things look weak but a bunch of horses get really sharp and come out of the woodwork. I see nothing about this coming year that makes me think it's not going to be a ton better than last year (last year was a horror). There are at least some prospects already running or in training.

[The Hawk]

If Zenyatta comes back this year, if she runs and wins the Zenyatta Handicap, would she be the first horse to win a stakes race named after themselves?

I think one of Dennis Manning's sprinters from a few years back, Valid Video, was away for a year and a half and then was going to come back in the Valid Video Stakes, but I don't think he did, or they changed the name of the race again, or something like that. That's the closest I can remember.

[Judge Gallivan]

Let's be honest....there is nothing Zenyatta can't do.

I, for one, can't wait until the New York Turf Writers Cup. 2 1/4 over the jumps should fit her like a glove.

And, after that, she should get to work on achieving World Peace.

Rachel Alexandra, of course, will be losing 10K claimers at Penn National.

Do you really believe Zenyatta couldn't beat American jumpers with minimal schooling?

In Europe 10 f flat horses easily stay 2 1/2 and 3 miles over fences, as long as they can jump, since the pace is slower.

[Steve R]

The horse that finished 3rd was a Grade 1 winner.

Rip Van Winkle was one of the best horses in Europe, but I think it's pretty clear he didn't fire his "A" race. So I think he's irrelevant to the conversation.

Plus, what some people fail to realize is that when she ran by those Grade 1 turfers, she didn't struggle to get past despite the fact they were finishing really well. She went by them like they were a bunch of mules indicating a difference in ability that is understated by the winning margin (much like all the rest of her races). That's a phenomenon much somewhat unique to turf and synth racing and why some people kept underestimating her.
Why is it that so many people focus on Zenyatta's :23.1 last quarter compared to Gio Ponti's :23.3 last quarter while totally ignoring her first half in :50.2 and his first half in :49.3? I hope no one is suggesting that had Zenyatta gone 4 ticks faster early she still would have closed in the same :23.1. Or in addition to all her other miraculous attributes is she also immune to the laws of physics?

[Dahoss9698]

Do you really believe Zenyatta couldn't beat American jumpers with minimal schooling?

In Europe 10 f flat horses easily stay 2 1/2 and 3 miles over fences, as long as they can jump, since the pace is slower.

Why stop at steeplechase? Considering her personality, why not movies or TV? Someone just has to write Hot to Trot part 2. I'm sure Bobcat Goldwaith needs the work, so he can reprise his role and Zenyatta can play the horse.

[Judge Gallivan]

Most allowance turf horses would win New York Turf Writers Cup. So do you Zenyatta haters really think that she's not even an allowance horse?

[Dahoss9698]

Most allowance turf horses would win New York Turf Writers Cup. So do you Zenyatta haters really think that she's not even an allowance horse?

I'm not a Zenyatta hater at all. She's a very good mare. I just don't think she is nearly as good as she is made out to be by the biased West Coast media and people on message boards.

Think about how out of wack this discussion has gotten. TLG makes a joke about her running in steeplechase races and you are running with it. Hysteria is at an all time high. She's good, but she's not this good.

[the little guy]

Do you really believe Zenyatta couldn't beat American jumpers with minimal schooling?

In Europe 10 f flat horses easily stay 2 1/2 and 3 miles over fences, as long as they can jump, since the pace is slower.


So, you like her on the figure eight course at Auteuil?

[letswastemoney]

Most allowance turf horses would win New York Turf Writers Cup. So do you Zenyatta haters really think that she's not even an allowance horse?There are different surfaces for different horses!!!!

No, no one thinks Zenyatta is an allowance horse. But she's a G1 synthetic horse. She needs to prove herself beyond one dirt race in a short 5/6 horse field to be truly known as dominant on dirt.

She CAN be dominant on dirt, but there is not enough evidence to go on. I'm not going to buy a race where Brownie Points defeated Ginger Punch as a true test.

[letswastemoney]

Anyone who has had the opportunity to watch Zenyatta in the paddock at Del Mar or SA knows that there is something unique about that horse, from its double-wide ass to its double-length gait, her awareness of the crowd, and the obvious intelligence in her face. You have to be there to see this, the camera just doesnt cut it.

According to Mike Smith, she runs only as fast as she needs, and, as a result, even he has no idea what she is capable of. Caused me grief to see him say goodbye to the horse, on the 'last ride' of that stupid useless goodbye- hype party.

Z simply won the genetic lottery
Z will beat R because genetics arent fair
If Rachel sets the pace in 23 and change or 24 in the first quarter, 48 in the second

Rachel WINS. There is no doubt in my mind she would win if the race was on dirt and the first two splits were 24 and 48

[Cardus]

How Zenyatta wasn't pointed to the 2008 Summer Olympics to win the Dressage is beyond me.

[Cardus]

I'm not a Zenyatta hater at all. She's a very good mare. I just don't think she is nearly as good as she is made out to be by the biased West Coast media and people on message boards.

Think about how out of wack this discussion has gotten. TLG makes a joke about her running in steeplechase races and you are running with it. Hysteria is at an all time high. She's good, but she's not this good.

The Crusade continues...

[Judge Gallivan]

So, you like her on the figure eight course at Auteuil?

She wouldn't exactly have to beat Kauto Star or Denman in the New York Turf Writers Cup, that's for sure.

[the little guy]

She wouldn't exactly have to beat Kauto Star or Denman in the New York Turf Writers Cup, that's for sure.


So you figure on the conservative route......Turf Writers Cup and then a try at Auteuil.....after, I assume, she wins the Arc?

[Judge Gallivan]

I'm not a Zenyatta hater at all. She's a very good mare. I just don't think she is nearly as good as she is made out to be by the biased West Coast media and people on message boards.

Think about how out of wack this discussion has gotten. TLG makes a joke about her running in steeplechase races and you are running with it. Hysteria is at an all time high. She's good, but she's not this good.


I know it was a joke. But Zenyatta NOT winning the New York Turf Writers Cup would be as surprising as Rachel Alexandra losing at Penn National.

[Judge Gallivan]

So you figure on the conservative route......Turf Writers Cup and then a try at Auteuil.....after, I assume, she wins the Arc?

What are you saying? That if she took chasing that she likely wouldn't be good enough to win the New York Turf Writers Cup? Really?

[Judge Gallivan]

As far as the Arc is concerned, I would take 20/1 on her if they pointed her towards it. There I said it.

[the little guy]

I know it was a joke. But Zenyatta NOT winning the New York Turf Writers Cup would be as surprising as Rachel Alexandra losing at Penn National.


I wish I could bet this prop.

It will be tough for you to top this one....but I have faith. After all, I see there is another page to this thread, and I have a lot of faith in you.

[the little guy]

As far as the Arc is concerned, I would take 20/1 on her if they pointed her towards it. There I said it.


Bingo!

[bisket]

classhandicapp i had the same reservations about zenyatta at 9 furs against rachel, but after really looking at zens races at 1 1/16 mile she can beat rachel at 9 furs. at 10 furs zen is much the best. zenyatta will be much closer to the leaders on the dirt. she'll get the first 1/4 in 24 and change, but after that she's capable of a sustained 7 furs of 121 and change. without a doubt!!!! bottom line zen is faster. i'm sure of it. even pretty darn cocky about it.

[speed]

How Zenyatta wasn't pointed to the 2008 Summer Olympics to win the Dressage is beyond me.

She was but it RAINED

[bisket]

the race of the century. let the training begin, but is it east versus west or horsey against horsey? woooooohooooo!!!!!!!! this years gonna be lots of fun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL3lJfpenAc&feature=related

[Spalding No!]

zenyatta will be much closer to the leaders on the dirt.

What's the reasoning behind this?

[bisket]

she's done it before

[Steve R]

zenyatta will be much closer to the leaders on the dirt.
She certainly wasn't at Oaklawn, but it will be interesting to see if they try to change her style against dirt horses that could well get away on the front.

[Dahoss9698]

she's done it before

When?

[letswastemoney]

she's done it before
nice to see a statement made without any evidence

[bisket]

heres her lifetime pps.
http://www.drf.com/newsletter/zenyatta.pdf
look at the el encino in january of 2008. santa anita sealed the poly track surface because of drainage problems. its probably the only time zen raced on what would be considered a lightening fast dirt type surface. the track was very speed friendly the whole month. look at the fractions and where zenyatta was the whole time. RACHEL WILL NOT GET AWAY FROM HER EARLY. you can count on it. its gonna be pretty funny when many people in this forum end up eating their own words. by the way i think rachel alexander deserves horse of the year for 2009. i'm not someone who is looking at this matchup with preconcieved notions. zenyatta is faster!!!!!!!

[Spalding No!]

How do you account for Zenyatta's position down the backstretch in the '08 Vanity and Clement Hirsch, and the '09 Milady (ie races that featured fast early paces)?

[Dahoss9698]

heres her lifetime pps.
http://www.drf.com/newsletter/zenyatta.pdf
look at the el encino in january of 2008. santa anita sealed the poly track surface because of drainage problems. its probably the only time zen raced on what would be considered a lightening fast dirt type surface. the track was very speed friendly the whole month. look at the fractions and where zenyatta was the whole time. RACHEL WILL NOT GET AWAY FROM HER EARLY. you can count on it. its gonna be pretty funny when many people in this forum end up eating their own words. by the way i think rachel alexander deserves horse of the year for 2009. i'm not someone who is looking at this matchup with preconcieved notions. zenyatta is faster!!!!!!!

Here's the video of the race. Considering how fast the track was, and how slow they went early, she was still at least 5 lengths back after a slow half. Same thing after 3/4's. It's always better to watch a race for yourself, then to try and interpret a race off of a chart.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xPhft0d1es

[bisket]

the 3/4 's was done in 110 and change. exactly what rachel will be doing at that point going 1 1/8 mile or 1 1/4 mile. you can take it to the bank zen is 5-6 LENGTHS BETTER AFTER THAT. zen has the stamina advantage. which is everything in a route.

[bisket]

its in writing you know what i think.

[letswastemoney]

heres her lifetime pps.
http://www.drf.com/newsletter/zenyatta.pdf
look at the el encino in january of 2008. santa anita sealed the poly track surface because of drainage problems. its probably the only time zen raced on what would be considered a lightening fast dirt type surface. the track was very speed friendly the whole month. look at the fractions and where zenyatta was the whole time. RACHEL WILL NOT GET AWAY FROM HER EARLY. you can count on it. its gonna be pretty funny when many people in this forum end up eating their own words. by the way i think rachel alexander deserves horse of the year for 2009. i'm not someone who is looking at this matchup with preconcieved notions. zenyatta is faster!!!!!!!It still wasn't dirt. And it certainly wasn't against true dirt horses such as Rachel and Quality Road

[classhandicapper]

Why is it that so many people focus on Zenyatta's :23.1 last quarter compared to Gio Ponti's :23.3 last quarter while totally ignoring her first half in :50.2 and his first half in :49.3? I hope no one is suggesting that had Zenyatta gone 4 ticks faster early she still would have closed in the same :23.1. Or in addition to all her other miraculous attributes is she also immune to the laws of physics?

I agree to an extent. The only people that don't think pace matters much are total novices and a few crazies that look at sheets (but I guess I am being redundant). :lol:

However, the relationship between pace and and closing time is not clear or linear. If it was, pace wouldn't matter at all.

The relationship is extremely difficult to measure. Every horse has a different level of overall ability, different level of stamina, different level of brilliance etc.... So the impact on one horse will be different from the impact on another within the same race even if the fractions are similar. When the fractions are different it gets even more complex. But you can never be sure what the impact will be until a horse is asked to do more as it moves up the ladder and faces better horses. Some will fail and some will reveal superior ability.

That is the the crux of the matter. Many synthetic and turf races develop with much slower paces than we see on dirt. That prevents some of the superior horses from winning by large margins and/or putting up fast times. So you need to look beyond final time to evaluate their ability accurately. You have to look at closing times, relative performance through the stretch, winning record, the ability to consistently do well against the race shape (to borrow a term from the fat man) etc... By that standard, Zenyatta has been dramatically superior to her foes.

My guess is that the difference in energy used between running 49.3 and 50.2 for this quality of horse is so negligible it's somewhat irrelevant. So the faster closing time indicates superior ability.

Whether she can beat RA on dirt is one thing. Whether she is an all time great filly is a totally settled manner in my view. She's obviously one of the greatest mares to ever race in the US. And forgive me for the arrogance, but I think anyone that doesn't understand that lacks the handicapping sophistication to appreciate it. It's that clear.

[bisket]

How do you account for Zenyatta's position down the backstretch in the '08 Vanity and Clement Hirsch, and the '09 Milady (ie races that featured fast early paces)?
to be quite frank. smith didn't really care where she was in those races. he knew what he had under him and what the surface was like thast he was racing on. the point is when smith was on a speed friendly surface zenyatta was able to adjust her running style to suite the racing surface. which is all i need to know coming into a race with a very classy speed horse and zenyatta having the advantage late. its just a matter of: can zenyatta run fast enough early, and not leave herself to much to do late? the answer to that question is yes.

[Spalding No!]

to be quite frank. smith didn't really care where she was in those races. he knew what he had under him and what the surface was like thast he was racing on. the point is when smith was on a speed friendly surface zenyatta was able to adjust her running style to suite the racing surface. which is all i need to know coming into a race with a very classy speed horse and zenyatta having the advantage late. its just a matter of: can zenyatta run fast enough early, and not leave herself to much to do late? the answer to that question is yes.

David Flores rode Zenyatta in the El Encino.

[bisket]

thank you for that little tidbit. forunatly the horse does the running, and i'm sure smith is smart enough to not let rachel get away.

[classhandicapper]

classhandicapp i had the same reservations about zenyatta at 9 furs against rachel, but after really looking at zens races at 1 1/16 mile she can beat rachel at 9 furs. at 10 furs zen is much the best. zenyatta will be much closer to the leaders on the dirt. she'll get the first 1/4 in 24 and change, but after that she's capable of a sustained 7 furs of 121 and change. without a doubt!!!! bottom line zen is faster. i'm sure of it. even pretty darn cocky about it.

You may be right.

I am not willing to go that far even though I think Zenyatta handles dirt fairly well based on her one effort on it.

It's a entirely different game.

My only beef is with people that IMHO lack the handicapping sophistication to appreciate her greatness because they don't understand some of the idiosyncrasies of turf/synthetic racing and those that are trying to diminish her accomplishments and greatness. (excuse the arrogance)

I have come to her defense not so much because I think she can beat RA on dirt, but because I think she's at least as great as what she does as RA is what she does and it doesn't matter if RA can beat her on dirt because IMHO Zenyatta would piss on her on either synthetic or turf. At 10F it would be comical.

I think Tiger Woods can beat Roger Federer at golf, but the result might switch at Wimbledon too. ;)

[bisket]

class i agree that lots of fans are putting their own anger about the poly surface onto the horse, and its not fair. i do know that zenyatta has the capacity to make two runs. one to get into contention, and one to win. street cry's son street sense had that capability. rachel's game is sustained speed. zenyatta's game is stretching out and eating up ground that gives her the capability to run very fast fractions, and also sustain 12 second furlongs over a route. when confronted with this choice my money always goes on the horse that can get those 10-11 second furlongs by lengthening their stride. my reasoning is when challenged a horse like zen has the ability to get that burst she needs. rachel is a fighter. she wins late in a race with determination. thats admirable, but that only takes you so far against a very talented rival who is faster in the stretch.

[gm10]

These aren't turf horses Zenyatta will be facing either if she goes east. Zenyatta would be facing dirt horses on a dirt track. Dirt horses that are better than Ginger Punch.

Bring it on. And please let RA be in that race.

[gm10]

I agree to an extent. The only people that don't think pace matters much are total novices and a few crazies that look at sheets (but I guess I am being redundant). :lol:

However, the relationship between pace and and closing time is not clear or linear. If it was, pace wouldn't matter at all.



Nice one!

[Kimsus]

Bring it on. And please let RA be in that race.

Anyone know where she's at in terms of readiness for a start, the longer she is away the lesser I would feel confident of her chances against Zenyatta(which I still won't believe until it happens), personally I think she has already run her best races and I think alot of people are going to realize just who the better horse was.

[Steve R]

I agree to an extent. The only people that don't think pace matters much are total novices and a few crazies that look at sheets (but I guess I am being redundant). :lol:

However, the relationship between pace and and closing time is not clear or linear. If it was, pace wouldn't matter at all.

The relationship is extremely difficult to measure. Every horse has a different level of overall ability, different level of stamina, different level of brilliance etc.... So the impact on one horse will be different from the impact on another within the same race even if the fractions are similar. When the fractions are different it gets even more complex. But you can never be sure what the impact will be until a horse is asked to do more as it moves up the ladder and faces better horses. Some will fail and some will reveal superior ability.

That is the the crux of the matter. Many synthetic and turf races develop with much slower paces than we see on dirt. That prevents some of the superior horses from winning by large margins and/or putting up fast times. So you need to look beyond final time to evaluate their ability accurately. You have to look at closing times, relative performance through the stretch, winning record, the ability to consistently do well against the race shape (to borrow a term from the fat man) etc... By that standard, Zenyatta has been dramatically superior to her foes.

My guess is that the difference in energy used between running 49.3 and 50.2 for this quality of horse is so negligible it's somewhat irrelevant. So the faster closing time indicates superior ability.

Whether she can beat RA on dirt is one thing. Whether she is an all time great filly is a totally settled manner in my view. She's obviously one of the greatest mares to ever race in the US. And forgive me for the arrogance, but I think anyone that doesn't understand that lacks the handicapping sophistication to appreciate it. It's that clear.
A lot of nice words, but no physical data to back up any of your assertions. Pure speculation.

A horse has a finite amount of energy available to expend in a race. There is not a bottomless well upon which to draw. Whether it uses that full amount of energy depends on its competitiveness within the race. If it is in it to the end, it will be running as fast as it can from the quarter pole on (or before). If not, the race is fixed. How fast "running as fast as it can" actually is depends on the horse's biomechanical limitations regardless of available reserve energy. If that limitation is a 23 second final quarter, it won't be able to go any faster if the first half mile goes in 47 seconds or an hour and 15 minutes.

In a situation where the horse is fully extended to the wire, every bit of energy used before the final sprint is no longer available. What's left will determine how close the horse can come to its biomechanical limit in the last part of the race. Since kinetic energy output is measurable, you can calculate the energy left after any initial expenditure.

Assume a horse has X total energy units available. If it uses 80% of it to the quarter pole and is in a drive from that point on, the remaining 20% of available energy will determine how close it can come to its biomechanical speed limit. If it uses 70% early, then the remaining 30% will be the determining factor. The less energy used early, the more likely the horse will be able to approach its speed limit at the end.

The only way Zenyatta, or any horse, can finish as fast or faster off a quicker early pace, is if what you see in the final quarter is not an all out effort. That seems very unlikely in a truly competitive race. I don't care how "smart" people may think the mare is, at the top of the stretch neither she nor her rider can possibly know how fast the horses in front of her are going to finish. But if you are suggesting she or Smith "knew" that Gio Ponti was going to run a final quarter in :23.3 instead of :23.1, that's insane.

Incidentally the difference in kinetic energy used between :49.3 and :50.2 is easy to calculate: one half the mass times the velocity squared. And it has nothing at all to do with the quality of the horse. It's just physics. The quality difference in horses is reflected in total available energy. When they are in motion, they are all subject to the same physical laws.

[Kimsus]

A lot of nice words, but no physical data to back up any of your assertions. Pure speculation.

A horse has a finite amount of energy available to expend in a race. There is not a bottomless well upon which to draw. Whether it uses that full amount of energy depends on its competitiveness within the race. If it is in it to the end, it will be running as fast as it can from the quarter pole on (or before). If not, the race is fixed. How fast "running as fast as it can" actually is depends on the horse's biomechanical limitations regardless of available reserve energy. If that limitation is a 23 second final quarter, it won't be able to go any faster if the first half mile goes in 47 seconds or an hour and 15 minutes.

In a situation where the horse is fully extended to the wire, every bit of energy used before the final sprint is no longer available. What's left will determine how close the horse can come to its biomechanical limit in the last part of the race. Since kinetic energy output is measurable, you can calculate the energy left after any initial expenditure.

Assume a horse has X total energy units available. If it uses 80% of it to the quarter pole and is in a drive from that point on, the remaining 20% of available energy will determine how close it can come to its biomechanical speed limit. If it uses 70% early, then the remaining 30% will be the determining factor. The less energy used early, the more likely the horse will be able to approach its speed limit at the end.

The only way Zenyatta, or any horse, can finish as fast or faster off a quicker early pace, is if what you see in the final quarter is not an all out effort. That seems very unlikely in a truly competitive race. I don't care how "smart" people may think the mare is, at the top of the stretch neither she nor her rider can possibly know how fast the horses in front of her are going to finish. But if you are suggesting she or Smith "knew" that Gio Ponti was going to run a final quarter in :23.3 instead of :23.1, that's insane.

Incidentally the difference in kinetic energy used between :49.3 and :50.2 is easy to calculate: one half the mass times the velocity squared. And it has nothing at all to do with the quality of the horse. It's just physics. The quality difference in horses is reflected in total available energy. When they are in motion, they are all subject to the same physical laws.

You do realize all the analysis you are putting into this is on an entirely new and different surface than Dr. Fager ran on, and that is synthetic tracks...Did you factor this in or do you regard both the same? If they are different than how do you arrive that one horse is faster than the other...It would be no different than calling a turf horse slower than a dirt horse or vice versa...You just can't...

[Steve R]

You do realize all the analysis you are putting into this is on an entirely new and different surface than Dr. Fager ran on, and that is synthetic tracks...Did you factor this in or do you regard both the same? If they are different than how do you arrive that one horse is faster than the other...It would be no different than calling a turf horse slower than a dirt horse or vice versa...You just can't...
There is no variable for surface in the kinetic energy equation. It is irrelevant to the calculation, although if the coefficient of friction for one surface is higher than for another, it should take more energy to maintain the same speed on the higher friction surface. IOW, the same energy expenditure can conceivably result in a slower time for one surface than another. That has nothing to do with the earlier part of the discussion where we were talking about energy distribution within a race on the same surface. Nevertheless, if you have accurate class-distance pace pars on any surface, you should be able to compare how "fast" races are without bias. In another thread about the weakness of Beyer figures on AWSs I presented data about my figures which incorporate pace as well as final time into the calculation instead of just final time as Beyer does. For the six tracks studied, at the equivalent class level, Del Mar and Saratoga led with the best, virtually identical average figures for the winners, followed by Belmont, then Hollywood and Santa Anita, and, finally Aqueduct. I think that result is a fair assessment of the relative quality of racing at those venues. IOW, comparing the actual speed of a race on different surfaces depends on the accuracy of the method you use to do your calculations. If Beyer is failing to take pace into account by his technique, that shouldn't lead people to believe that accurate, unbiased comparisons are not possible.

[Kimsus]

There is no variable for surface in the kinetic energy equation. It is irrelevant to the calculation, although if the coefficient of friction for one surface is higher than for another, it should take more energy to maintain the same speed on the higher friction surface. IOW, the same energy expenditure can conceivably result in a slower time for one surface than another. That has nothing to do with the earlier part of the discussion where we were talking about energy distribution within a race on the same surface. Nevertheless, if you have accurate class-distance pace pars on any surface, you should be able to compare how "fast" races are without bias. In another thread about the weakness of Beyer figures on AWSs I presented data about my figures which incorporate pace as well as final time into the calculation instead of just final time as Beyer does. For the six tracks studied, at the equivalent class level, Del Mar and Saratoga led with the best, virtually identical average figures for the winners, followed by Belmont, then Hollywood and Santa Anita, and, finally Aqueduct. I think that result is a fair assessment of the relative quality of racing at those venues. IOW, comparing the actual speed of a race on different surfaces depends on the accuracy of the method you use to do your calculations. If Beyer is failing to take pace into account by his technique, that shouldn't lead people to believe that accurate, unbiased comparisons are not possible.

I appreciate all that if I could understand it, but in simple english or Layman's terms I keep reading you think Zenyatta is slow or hasn't run a fast race in her life, given that 13 of her 14 races have thus been run on synthetic tracks, how are you arriving at this conclusion when you cite horses like Dr. Fager when all of his races were on dirt. I'm stating that your conclusion is not fair. Comparing dirt races to synth races should be a separate issue all together. If you think she is slow, then atleast say she is slow on poly.

[Steve R]

I appreciate all that if I could understand it, but in simple english or Layman's terms I keep reading you think Zenyatta is slow or hasn't run a fast race in her life, given that 13 of her 14 races have thus been run on synthetic tracks, how are you arriving at this conclusion when you cite horses like Dr. Fager when all of his races were on dirt. I'm stating that your conclusion is not fair. Comparing dirt races to synth races should be a separate issue all together. If you think she is slow, then atleast say she is slow on poly.
I can't say she is slow on poly because she isn't. Her best poly figure by my method puts her in the top 5% of all GSWs since 1999 regardless of surface. But fast is a relative term. From the perspective of history, she is not nearly as "fast" as many. Suggesting I separate AWSs from dirt makes no sense because AWSs have been around in full force for only three years. There is no reason to assume that in those three years a horse would emerge to challenge the speed of all the fast horses that have raced on dirt for a century. I've already stated she is among the top 5% in the last 11 years, which is a notable achievement. And I've already indicated that my figures are not biased against synthetic surfaces.

The thing that separates Zenyatta from the crowd is her consistency, and surely she is one of the most consistent high end performers we have seen in several years. But that's not how I measure greatness, although it is an asset. When 300 years of breeding has targeted speed over a given distance, how fast horses cover those distances is an important measure of the progress being made. It is a legitimate metric in human racing where speed is not a targeted breeding goal. Why shouldn't it be critical when it is the target?

I think Zenyatta is a fine mare, although I believe I've seen well over a dozen fillies and mares in my lifetime that were physiologically superior even if not as consistent. There again, consistency is a relative term. It becomes less significant when the consistency depends on beating many of the same horses over and over again under virtually identical race conditions.

Finally, having owned, bred and personally taken care of numerous horses of several breeds in the last 40 years, I am most offended by the ridiculous anthropomorphism involved in describing the mare. She's a horse. Not a human. There is no ethical, moral or complex analytical component to her being. I admire her for her achievements as a horse on the track, not because she's adorable or "knows" things other horses don't. For those who may recall, John Henry runs rings around Zenyatta in the personality/intelligence/character arena.

[Kimsus]

I can't say she is slow on poly because she isn't. Her best poly figure by my method puts her in the top 5% of all GSWs since 1999 regardless of surface. But fast is a relative term. From the perspective of history, she is not nearly as "fast" as many. Suggesting I separate AWSs from dirt makes no sense because AWSs have been around in full force for only three years. There is no reason to assume that in those three years a horse would emerge to challenge the speed of all the fast horses that have raced on dirt for a century. I've already stated she is among the top 5% in the last 11 years, which is a notable achievement. And I've already indicated that my figures are not biased against synthetic surfaces.

The thing that separates Zenyatta from the crowd is her consistency, and surely she is one of the most consistent high end performers we have seen in several years. But that's not how I measure greatness, although it is an asset. When 300 years of breeding has targeted speed over a given distance, how fast horses cover those distances is an important measure of the progress being made. It is a legitimate metric in human racing where speed is not a targeted breeding goal. Why shouldn't it be critical when it is the target?

I think Zenyatta is a fine mare, although I believe I've seen well over a dozen fillies and mares in my lifetime that were physiologically superior even if not as consistent. There again, consistency is a relative term. It becomes less significant when the consistency depends on beating many of the same horses over and over again under virtually identical race conditions.

Finally, having owned, bred and personally taken care of numerous horses of several breeds in the last 40 years, I am most offended by the ridiculous anthropomorphism involved in describing the mare. She's a horse. Not a human. There is no ethical, moral or complex analytical component to her being. I admire her for her achievements as a horse on the track, not because she's adorable or "knows" things other horses don't. For those who may recall, John Henry runs rings around Zenyatta in the personality/intelligence/character arena.

Fair, gotcha...I think the one faulty part by many when analysing Zenyatta's races is on synth/poly tracks, it really is a third surface. The one thing beyers don't take into consideration is alot of these races basically amount to 1/4 mile sprints. On dirt speed is a weapon, and inevitably you are going to have faster splits. In most cases the times of these races are going to be quicker. This is the reason I take turf final times with a grain of salt, you can have pokey pace scenarios and a final time can be misleading. Common sense must be factored in.

[Steve R]

Fair, gotcha...I think the one faulty part by many when analysing Zenyatta's races is on synth/poly tracks, it really is a third surface. The one thing beyers don't take into consideration is alot of these races basically amount to 1/4 mile sprints. On dirt speed is a weapon, and inevitably you are going to have faster splits. In most cases the times of these races are going to be quicker. This is the reason I take turf final times with a grain of salt, you can have pokey pace scenarios and a final time can be misleading. Common sense must be factored in.
Let me make one last point about your concerns for poly figures vs dirt figures. Consider a G1 on dirt at a mile where the par pace line might be :22.0, :45.0, 1:09.0, 1:34.0 (IOW, successive fractions of 22, 23, 24 and 25). That performance gets a the par number for a G1 (we'll ignore the variants for this exercise, although pace variants are involved in the final calculation). Now consider a G1 on poly at a mile where the par pace line might be :26.0, :51.0, 1:15.0, 1:38.0 (IOW, successive fractions of 26, 25, 24 and 23). That performance gets the same figure as the dirt race. On dirt there are horses that might go in :44.0 or :46.0 for a half. On poly there are horses that might go a half in :50.0 or :52.0. The point is that as long as the par pace line is accurate at a given class level and distance, the nature of the surface (other than the daily pace line variants) is not important. It's all about the accuracy of the pace pars.

[gm10]

A lot of nice words, but no physical data to back up any of your assertions. Pure speculation.

A horse has a finite amount of energy available to expend in a race. There is not a bottomless well upon which to draw. Whether it uses that full amount of energy depends on its competitiveness within the race. If it is in it to the end, it will be running as fast as it can from the quarter pole on (or before). If not, the race is fixed. How fast "running as fast as it can" actually is depends on the horse's biomechanical limitations regardless of available reserve energy. If that limitation is a 23 second final quarter, it won't be able to go any faster if the first half mile goes in 47 seconds or an hour and 15 minutes.

In a situation where the horse is fully extended to the wire, every bit of energy used before the final sprint is no longer available. What's left will determine how close the horse can come to its biomechanical limit in the last part of the race. Since kinetic energy output is measurable, you can calculate the energy left after any initial expenditure.

Assume a horse has X total energy units available. If it uses 80% of it to the quarter pole and is in a drive from that point on, the remaining 20% of available energy will determine how close it can come to its biomechanical speed limit. If it uses 70% early, then the remaining 30% will be the determining factor. The less energy used early, the more likely the horse will be able to approach its speed limit at the end.

The only way Zenyatta, or any horse, can finish as fast or faster off a quicker early pace, is if what you see in the final quarter is not an all out effort. That seems very unlikely in a truly competitive race. I don't care how "smart" people may think the mare is, at the top of the stretch neither she nor her rider can possibly know how fast the horses in front of her are going to finish. But if you are suggesting she or Smith "knew" that Gio Ponti was going to run a final quarter in :23.3 instead of :23.1, that's insane.

Incidentally the difference in kinetic energy used between :49.3 and :50.2 is easy to calculate: one half the mass times the velocity squared. And it has nothing at all to do with the quality of the horse. It's just physics. The quality difference in horses is reflected in total available energy. When they are in motion, they are all subject to the same physical laws.

You're an intelligent guy but you're thinking way too much in terms of energy and physics in general. I am not disagreeing with the things you are saying, but there is such a thing as biology as well. This covers intelligence, adrenaline, competitiveness, muscular build and efficiency, capacity of turning energy into propulsion, and a whole range of other things. Expressing everything in terms of energy is smarter than sticking to speed figures - but in both cases, you need to accept that there are different approaches that can explain the same results.

And then there is the jockey factor. I am 99% sure that jockey's have learned to slow things down on the synthetic surfaces, because they realize it is not the best strategy. Have a look at sectional times of the second Oaktree meeting on the Pro-Ride. The times were always about 0.5-1 second slower (depending on the surface), but the entire difference could be explained by the early fraction. The rest of the race went as quick as before. (The fact that they could not go quicker off slower early fractions is remarkable in itself).

One thing I've learned with the whole synthetic issue is that you can't have a one-track mind. I read many articles about friction, sheer factor, energy, banking angles, biomechanics, and many other things. In the end there are a lot of factors that are statistically significant, and finding a model that accommodates all of them is not feasible at this point.

[bisket]

steve show us one race that zenyatta has "lost her energy". i understand your assertion that zenyatta has never faced a "fast pace" or sustained fractions like rachel. show me one race that zenyatta looked pooped at the end. zen faced a horse similar to rachel, but not of equal quality on dirt in ginger punch. while beating her she certainly didn't seem pooped. zenyatta is also a better quality horse than rachel has faced. rachel may have 5 lengths on zen after a 1/4 mile, but thats the furthest she will be ahead in the race. zenyatta has never showed how good she is. this i know. watch zenyatta's races. tell me when she's been extended. she wasn't even extended in the classic!!!!!! running on dirt won't be a problem for her. she'll IMPROVE ON IT!!!!

[Spalding No!]

steve show us one race that zenyatta has "lost her energy". i understand your assertion that zenyatta has never faced a "fast pace" or sustained fractions like rachel. show me one race that zenyatta looked pooped at the end. zen faced a horse similar to rachel, but not of equal quality on dirt in ginger punch. while beating her she certainly didn't seem pooped. zenyatta is also a better quality horse than rachel has faced. rachel may have 5 lengths on zen after a 1/4 mile, but thats the furthest she will be ahead in the race. zenyatta has never showed how good she is. this i know. watch zenyatta's races. tell me when she's been extended. she wasn't even extended in the classic!!!!!! running on dirt won't be a problem for her. she'll IMPROVE ON IT!!!!

Did you ever see the 2008 Vanity?

Arguably, if Tough Tiz's Sis didn't have to get off the rail and alter course, we wouldn't have to worry about Zenyatta becoming the greatest of all-time after she wins 6 more cakewalks and a Breeder's Cup race in a row.

[bisket]

You're an intelligent guy but you're thinking way too much in terms of energy and physics in general. I am not disagreeing with the things you are saying, but there is such a thing as biology as well. This covers intelligence, adrenaline, competitiveness, muscular build and efficiency, capacity of turning energy into propulsion, and a whole range of other things. Expressing everything in terms of energy is smarter than sticking to speed figures - but in both cases, you need to accept that there are different approaches that can explain the same results.

And then there is the jockey factor. I am 99% sure that jockey's have learned to slow things down on the synthetic surfaces, because they realize it is not the best strategy. Have a look at sectional times of the second Oaktree meeting on the Pro-Ride. The times were always about 0.5-1 second slower (depending on the surface), but the entire difference could be explained by the early fraction. The rest of the race went as quick as before. (The fact that they could not go quicker off slower early fractions is remarkable in itself).

One thing I've learned with the whole synthetic issue is that you can't have a one-track mind. I read many articles about friction, sheer factor, energy, banking angles, biomechanics, and many other things. In the end there are a lot of factors that are statistically significant, and finding a model that accommodates all of them is not feasible at this point.
whenever a horse races at a early pace above 12 second furlongs (say 49 sec), and finishes the race in a sub 12 second furlong time in a route ( say 141 for 1 1/16 mile). that horse can RUN. alot of handicappers just don't get this. a below 12 second time at the end of a route is usually achieved by a sub 12 second per furlong 1/2 or 3/4 and 12 second furs after this. for a horse to finish a sub 12 second time at the end of a race; after above 12 second furs for the pace; this the horse has to run significantly faster to achieve this. for instance after running a 49 second half and finshing a 1 1/16 mile race in 141. a horse has to shave 2 seconds off the time the last 4 1/2 furs. in essance this horse can run a race 5 lengths faster than say RACHEL ALEXANDER. this is an incredible task RUNNING ON A TIRING SURFACE LIKE POLY. RUNNING ON POLY TRACK IS SIMILAR TO RUNNING ON SOFT TURF. speed handicappers are into well she went 46 and finished in 146. boy she didn't lose anything that last five furs. she's INCREDIBLE. to get them to look at a race in another manner is likE talking to a brick wall. wooohoo!!!!! i just love every second of it $$$$$$

[bisket]

she wasn't her best and they still couldn't gain one inch on her that last furlong. thats how i see the vanity.

[Spalding No!]

she wasn't her best and they still couldn't gain one inch on her that last furlong. thats how i see the vanity.

Never mind that Tough Tiz's Sis, nearly 2 lengths back at the 1/16th pole while altering course, closed her clear lead to a 1/2 length at the wire.

[bisket]

yes zenyatta circled her prior to that, and established position. this is what i'm trying to explain zenyatta has the ability to run for position, and then sustain her drive. if that race were on dirt zenyatta would have beaten tiz by 3-4 lengths because she wouldn't have lost momentum. thats the difference between poly and dirt. horses can't sustain momentum on poly. tiz wasn't allowed to run early in the stretch so it seemed she could catch zen when she was allowed to run. this is because zen ran early, and couldn't sustain momentum.
heres the race
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34G-d7oF150

[Steve R]

steve show us one race that zenyatta has "lost her energy". i understand your assertion that zenyatta has never faced a "fast pace" or sustained fractions like rachel. show me one race that zenyatta looked pooped at the end. zen faced a horse similar to rachel, but not of equal quality on dirt in ginger punch. while beating her she certainly didn't seem pooped. zenyatta is also a better quality horse than rachel has faced. rachel may have 5 lengths on zen after a 1/4 mile, but thats the furthest she will be ahead in the race. zenyatta has never showed how good she is. this i know. watch zenyatta's races. tell me when she's been extended. she wasn't even extended in the classic!!!!!! running on dirt won't be a problem for her. she'll IMPROVE ON IT!!!!
It's not a matter of being pooped at the end. It's the actual physical limitation to how fast the horse can run. She can walk the first mile of a 10f for all I care. She will still only be able to run the last quarter in some finite amount of time even under an eyeballs out sprint. If she runs the first mile, she won't be able to reach that limit in the stretch. Available energy minus energy used equals energy remaining. So the question I have is: how do you know how much faster she might have been capable of running at the end of each of her races? As I mentioned earlier, unless the race is fixed or she is really a G1 horse running against $5K claimers, I suggest she is finishing her races as fast as she can. It is simply not reasonable to think that when she is lengths behind with a quarter mile to go that she is loafing along or has an absolutely precise fix on how the horses in front of her are going to finish. She may not be pooped, which is essentially pulling up, but I do think she is running at the end about as fast as she can. The relative consistency of her numbers defines for me her ability over the various distances. I don't see any evidence that she could have run any faster. BTW, my second best figure for her is in the Apple Blossom, which I think some have proposed may have been her finest effort. For me it was the 2008 Hirsch, then the Apple Blossom followed closely by the Classic.

[bisket]

It's not a matter of being pooped at the end. It's the actual physical limitation to how fast the horse can run. She can walk the first mile of a 10f for all I care. She will still only be able to run the last quarter in some finite amount of time even under an eyeballs out sprint. If she runs the first mile, she won't be able to reach that limit in the stretch. Available energy minus energy used equals energy remaining. So the question I have is: how do you know how much faster she might have been capable of running at the end of each of her races? As I mentioned earlier, unless the race is fixed or she is really a G1 horse running against $5K claimers, I suggest she is finishing her races as fast as she can. It is simply not reasonable to think that when she is lengths behind with a quarter mile to go that she is loafing along or has an absolutely precise fix on how the horses in front of her are going to finish. She may not be pooped, which is essentially pulling up, but I do think she is running at the end about as fast as she can. The relative consistency of her numbers defines for me her ability over the various distances. I don't see any evidence that she could have run any faster. BTW, my second best figure for her is in the Apple Blossom, which I think some have proposed may have been her finest effort. For me it was the 2008 Hirsch, then the Apple Blossom followed closely by the Classic.
did you look at post 173 and watch her races. she's practically just galloping at the end of her races. you honestly need to learn more about the game than looking at numbers, and get some insight how the numbers are made.

[Dahoss9698]

you honestly need to learn more about the game.

:lol:

Considering your posts the last few days, this is hilarious.

[Saratoga_Mike]

did you look at post 173 and watch her races. she's practically just galloping at the end of her races. you honestly need to learn more about the game than looking at numbers, and get some insight how the numbers are made.

This type of thinking used to drive Bobby Frankel crazy. Just because a horse appears in hand at the end of a race doesn't mean they could have gone much faster. This issue also drives Andy Beyer crazy. But hey what did Frankel know about racing? And Beyer?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Do you really believe Zenyatta couldn't beat American jumpers with minimal schooling?

In Europe 10 f flat horses easily stay 2 1/2 and 3 miles over fences, as long as they can jump, since the pace is slower.

She's busy working on the relief efforts in Haiti right now*, but I'm certain she could!

*as Andy Serling implied earlier.

[bisket]

This type of thinking used to drive Bobby Frankel crazy. Just because a horse appears in hand at the end of a race doesn't mean they could have gone much faster. This issue also drives Andy Beyer crazy. But hey what did Frankel know about racing? And Beyer?
i here what your saying, but she wasn't in hand. she just lengthened her stride. which she can do for a much longer period of time on dirt.

[Saratoga_Mike]

i here what your saying, but she wasn't in hand. she just lengthened her stride. which she can do for a much longer period of time on dirt.

I just don't see it that way, but we'll see what they say tonight! More importantly, we'll see what happens when RA faces Z this yr, at least let's hope we see that.

[Spalding No!]

this is what i'm trying to explain zenyatta has the ability to run for position, and then sustain her drive.

tiz wasn't allowed to run early in the stretch so it seemed she could catch zen when she was allowed to run. this is because zen ran early, and couldn't sustain momentum.

Can you please explain the rather obvious disparity between these two statements (note there was only a single sentence separating them in your post).

Basically, what I'm asking:

Can you sustain your drivel?

[Dahoss9698]

Basically, what I'm asking:

Can you sustain your drivel?

As history has shown us, yes.

[bisket]

its quite obvious both of you are a lost cause. so your in the ignore category

[classhandicapper]

A lot of nice words, but no physical data to back up any of your assertions. Pure speculation.

A horse has a finite amount of energy available to expend in a race. There is not a bottomless well upon which to draw. Whether it uses that full amount of energy depends on its competitiveness within the race. If it is in it to the end, it will be running as fast as it can from the quarter pole on (or before). If not, the race is fixed. How fast "running as fast as it can" actually is depends on the horse's biomechanical limitations regardless of available reserve energy. If that limitation is a 23 second final quarter, it won't be able to go any faster if the first half mile goes in 47 seconds or an hour and 15 minutes.

In a situation where the horse is fully extended to the wire, every bit of energy used before the final sprint is no longer available. What's left will determine how close the horse can come to its biomechanical limit in the last part of the race. Since kinetic energy output is measurable, you can calculate the energy left after any initial expenditure.

Assume a horse has X total energy units available. If it uses 80% of it to the quarter pole and is in a drive from that point on, the remaining 20% of available energy will determine how close it can come to its biomechanical speed limit. If it uses 70% early, then the remaining 30% will be the determining factor. The less energy used early, the more likely the horse will be able to approach its speed limit at the end.

The only way Zenyatta, or any horse, can finish as fast or faster off a quicker early pace, is if what you see in the final quarter is not an all out effort. That seems very unlikely in a truly competitive race. I don't care how "smart" people may think the mare is, at the top of the stretch neither she nor her rider can possibly know how fast the horses in front of her are going to finish. But if you are suggesting she or Smith "knew" that Gio Ponti was going to run a final quarter in :23.3 instead of :23.1, that's insane.

Incidentally the difference in kinetic energy used between :49.3 and :50.2 is easy to calculate: one half the mass times the velocity squared. And it has nothing at all to do with the quality of the horse. It's just physics. The quality difference in horses is reflected in total available energy. When they are in motion, they are all subject to the same physical laws.

I think we mostly agree, but disagree about whether or not Zenyatta is better than Gio Ponti by more than the winningn margin. I say she is.

Each horse has a different level of overall ability, intrinsic brilliance and speed, stamina etc....just as is the case with human runners. So changes in the fractions do not impact each equally or assure which one will be able to come home faster. There is NO FORMULA applicable to all horses equally.

However, we know that variations around slow have less of an impact than variations around super fast. So when we see slow fractions, we can kind of assume that the horse that comes home a lot faster is either a much more brilliant/speedy animal (one aspect of ability), an overall superior animal, or both.

I think Zenyatta outkicking Gio Ponti so easily indicates she is more superior to him than the margin indicates (that has been the case with her for practically her entire career). Even though Gio Ponti may have used a tad more energy early, it was during slow fractions. So the difference in energy expended relative to their entire reserves was minimal . IMO he was nowhere near his bottom. He finshed well. He was just outfinished by a much better horse.

[Investorater]

\o/ Zenyatta, in 2010, will prove she's just as great on any and all surfaces. \o/

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know the details but presumably the votes have already been cast and Monday is just about announcing the results?
-----

It was certainly the case in 2009. The Eclipse Awards were announced on 26 Jan, while ...

"Voting Overview
In voting that concluded Jan. 5, 2009, Eclipse Awards voters cast their ballots to rank the top three horses and individuals in each championship division on a 10-5-1 point system basis. This voting established the top three finalists in each division, the names of which were released on Jan. 8, 2009. Eclipse Award winners, however, were determined by first-place votes only."I'm not sure what your point is...hadn't they been "retiring" Zenyatta since right after the BC Classic in November?

[PaceAdvantage]

its quite obvious both of you are a lost cause. so your in the ignore categoryAnd this is a bad thing?

[gm10]

I'm not sure what your point is...hadn't they been "retiring" Zenyatta since right after the BC Classic in November?


My bad, I read your post too quickly.

[classhandicapper]

Let me make one last point about your concerns for poly figures vs dirt figures. Consider a G1 on dirt at a mile where the par pace line might be :22.0, :45.0, 1:09.0, 1:34.0 (IOW, successive fractions of 22, 23, 24 and 25). That performance gets a the par number for a G1 (we'll ignore the variants for this exercise, although pace variants are involved in the final calculation). Now consider a G1 on poly at a mile where the par pace line might be :26.0, :51.0, 1:15.0, 1:38.0 (IOW, successive fractions of 26, 25, 24 and 23). That performance gets the same figure as the dirt race. On dirt there are horses that might go in :44.0 or :46.0 for a half. On poly there are horses that might go a half in :50.0 or :52.0. The point is that as long as the par pace line is accurate at a given class level and distance, the nature of the surface (other than the daily pace line variants) is not important. It's all about the accuracy of the pace pars.

This seems like a better way to do it, but I still disagree with you mildly.

The problem is that some superior horses need a pace comparable to THEIR OWN ABILITY to run their optimal final time. The PAR is too slow for them to maximize their final time because they are superior to the PAR for that class. That happens a lot in turf/synthetic races.

We actually sometimes even see that phenomenon on dirt among very lightly raced horses that are moving up the ALW ranks.

It's a dilemma for handicappers (at least me).

Until a horse is tested, you don't know if a faster pace will exhaust its reserves and cause it to run a slower final time or enable it to demonstrate that it's actually faster than it has shown to date. Some fade, some reveal more.

There are sometimes clues in the PPs before the fact.

Typically, the horses that can do better are well bred, handled by top horsemen, draw off through the stretch powerfully in their wins, have a very consistent win record and perhaps are undefeated, have recorded superior closing times, have overcome disadvantageous race shapes etc...

[Steve R]

This seems like a better way to do it, but I still disagree with you mildly.

The problem is that some superior horses need a pace comparable to THEIR OWN ABILITY to run their optimal final time. The PAR is too slow for them to maximize their final time because they are superior to the PAR for that class. That happens a lot in turf/synthetic races.

We actually sometimes even see that phenomenon on dirt among very lightly raced horses that are moving up the ALW ranks.

It's a dilemma for handicappers (at least me).

Until a horse is tested, you don't know if a faster pace will exhaust its reserves and cause it to run a slower final time or enable it to demonstrate that it's actually faster than it has shown to date. Some fade, some reveal more.

There are sometimes clues in the PPs before the fact.

Typically, the horses that can do better are well bred, handled by top horsemen, draw off through the stretch powerfully in their wins, have a very consistent win record and perhaps are undefeated, have recorded superior closing times, have overcome disadvantageous race shapes etc...
Instead of talking about a horse's optimal pace that correlates with its optimum final time, how about thinking of it in terms of correlating optimal fractional effort and optimal final effort? Maybe :48.0 on poly actually requires the same effort as :46.0 on dirt and we shouldn't focus so much on the physical time. In an effort sense, the :48.0 and the :46.0 may not be any different. The biggest issue I see regarding surface differences is the efficiency of energy transfer between the horse and the surface that is affected mainly by biomechanics. Some horses have a wider comfort zone regarding surface than others. And more power to them for their versatility. But I don't really understand why, if a horse is compatible with a surface, it can't optimize it's energy output to achieve a top level performance.

[classhandicapper]

Instead of talking about a horse's optimal pace that correlates with its optimum final time, how about thinking of it in terms of correlating optimal fractional effort and optimal final effort? Maybe :48.0 on poly actually requires the same effort as :46.0 on dirt and we shouldn't focus so much on the physical time. In an effort sense, the :48.0 and the :46.0 may not be any different. The biggest issue I see regarding surface differences is the efficiency of energy transfer between the horse and the surface that is affected mainly by biomechanics. Some horses have a wider comfort zone regarding surface than others. And more power to them for their versatility. But I don't really understand why, if a horse is compatible with a surface, it can't optimize it's energy output to achieve a top level performance.

I wholeheartedly agree with what you saying, but that doesn't change the fact that way more turf/synthetic races develop with very slow paces (even for that surface) that prevent superior horses from winning by open lengths in their optimal final time.

There is a reason why turf and synthetic figures tend to be compressed at both extremes relative to dirt figures and average winning margins are smaller. It's pace related.

There are various ways to deal with this if you want to try to translate figures from one surface to another.

Beyer has an automatic adjustment he puts right into his synthetic figures that he based on the average winning figure at each class on the two different surfaces

CJ has a figure translator that does a similar thing if you want (which IMHO is probably more accurate than the Beyer adjustment because his adjustment is larger and seems to reflect my own classing views better)

You have a similar method also.

The problem with all these methods is that they are looking at averages at various classes instead of what happened in an individual race where paces can be extreme in either direction. Perhaps over hundreds of races for a particular group of horses "4 Beyer points" is the average impact, but in any given race it could be 0 or 14. That's a problem and it was a factor in several of Zenyatta's races.

My own method of converting from grass to dirt to synthetic is to "classify" the horses using some of the same comparative techiques I use for other types of races and to look at the race development and race shape in the same comparative fashion. However, I also look at CJ's pace figures, closing times, speed figures, and his adjusted rating to help clarify the picture when my own comparative analysis tools are inadequate.

[bisket]

Instead of talking about a horse's optimal pace that correlates with its optimum final time, how about thinking of it in terms of correlating optimal fractional effort and optimal final effort? Maybe :48.0 on poly actually requires the same effort as :46.0 on dirt and we shouldn't focus so much on the physical time. In an effort sense, the :48.0 and the :46.0 may not be any different. The biggest issue I see regarding surface differences is the efficiency of energy transfer between the horse and the surface that is affected mainly by biomechanics. Some horses have a wider comfort zone regarding surface than others. And more power to them for their versatility. But I don't really understand why, if a horse is compatible with a surface, it can't optimize it's energy output to achieve a top level performance.
this is the key. 48 on poly is close to 46 on dirt. heres a link to moss' blog on the drf website. you'll have to look back at some of his posts earlier this year, but he goes into this in detail. i reread my post from earlier, and it may have sounded a little condescending. it wasn't meant in that way. what i was trying to say is you need to look into things a little and learn some of the differences between poly and dirt. poly is much more tiring on horses running a route.
zenyatta doesn't break all that well. i think her top pace for a 1/4 is 24 on dirt, but after that she can recover to 110 and change for 3/4. another thing thats gonna help her improve. the length of the stretch at hollywood and santa anita are 990 feet and at delmar itrs only 919 feet. if you watch all of zenyatta's races she stumbles around a little coming out of the turn. its really a testament to her ability that she's been able to run horses down in a short stretch and also losing 100 feet or so because she's big and not so nimble. she's gonna have more stretch to catch rachel if they meet at a track in the east. all the stretches are more than 1000 feet at the majority of eastern tracks. her method of "running hard" is to lengthen her stride, and a longer stretch will assist her greatly. just because the pace has been slow in her races doesn't mean she's gonna tire because she's running a faster pace on dirt. she has a significant stamina advantage on rachel, but unlike most stamina horses she has an incredibly fast acceleration at her disposal. this acceleration is what will put her in front of rachel in my opinion.

[Kimsus]

I wholeheartedly agree with what you saying, but that doesn't change the fact that way more turf/synthetic races develop with very slow paces (even for that surface) that prevent superior horses from winning by open lengths in their optimal final time.

There is a reason why turf and synthetic figures tend to be compressed at both extremes relative to dirt figures and average winning margins are smaller. It's pace related.

There are various ways to deal with this if you want to try to translate figures from one surface to another.

Beyer has an automatic adjustment he puts right into his synthetic figures that he based on the average winning figure at each class on the two different surfaces

CJ has a figure translator that does a similar thing if you want (which IMHO is probably more accurate than the Beyer adjustment because his adjustment is larger and seems to reflect my own classing views better)

You have a similar method also.

The problem with all these methods is that they are looking at averages at various classes instead of what happened in an individual race where paces can be extreme in either direction. Perhaps over hundreds of races for a particular group of horses "4 Beyer points" is the average impact, but in any given race it could be 0 or 14. That's a problem and it was a factor in several of Zenyatta's races.

My own method of converting from grass to dirt to synthetic is to "classify" the horses using some of the same comparative techiques I use for other types of races and to look at the race development and race shape in the same comparative fashion. However, I also look at CJ's pace figures, closing times, speed figures, and his adjusted rating to help clarify the picture when my own comparative analysis tools are inadequate.

Finally some sense with the interepting of apparent slow figs of Zenyatta, I mentioned it earlier this week and I am glad this is atleast discussion now. I Want Revenge is a viable example of a horse that had slower numbers on poly but was much higher beyer wise on dirt, beyers were adjusted on the high and low end when Mr. Beyer realized there was an error with his system. I can't remember all the particulars but in essence they were not reliable and you couldn't use a dirt figure to come to a synth one. Many keep saying Zenyatta was life and death to beat A Creation but for poly races that is usually the norm, it is far harder to run away from your competition than on dirt. Anyone who summarily dismisses Zenyatta as simply a plastic horse is not doing their homework I surmise. I would keep an open mind on this one.

[tzipi]

Let's be honest....there is nothing Zenyatta can't do.

I, for one, can't wait until the New York Turf Writers Cup. 2 1/4 over the jumps should fit her like a glove.

And, after that, she should get to work on achieving World Peace.

Rachel Alexandra, of course, will be losing 10K claimers at Penn National.


I was just reading through this thread and lost my tea laughing when I read this. :lol: :lol:

[eastie]

the funny part is that she would win the jump race by about 20 against those guys even if it were her first race over the jumps.
When will you guys realize she can run by any horse alive, at any distance, on any surface, from the beach at ocean city MD to the sunset strip. It is gonna be so sweet when she whips Rachel on the dirt and and shuts you guys up once and for all. No one was doing much admitting that they were wrong after the Breeders Cup. I wonder what the excuses will be this time.

[gm10]

Finally some sense with the interepting of apparent slow figs of Zenyatta, I mentioned it earlier this week and I am glad this is atleast discussion now. I Want Revenge is a viable example of a horse that had slower numbers on poly but was much higher beyer wise on dirt, beyers were adjusted on the high and low end when Mr. Beyer realized there was an error with his system. I can't remember all the particulars but in essence they were not reliable and you couldn't use a dirt figure to come to a synth one. Many keep saying Zenyatta was life and death to beat A Creation but for poly races that is usually the norm, it is far harder to run away from your competition than on dirt. Anyone who summarily dismisses Zenyatta as simply a plastic horse is not doing their homework I surmise. I would keep an open mind on this one.

Beyers work on the dirt, but they are moderate on any other surface. A race is always a function of sectional times, it's just that on the dirt you can get a pretty good approximation by just using final times only. The way that the Beyer crew updated their synthetic numbers last year showed that they still don't get it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

It was a wise decision to not retire Zenyatta.And the Moss's are intelligent enough to know that it was a necessity,not a luxury.With synthetic set to be torn out at Santa Anita and my guess Delmar and Hollywood to follow,it was necessary to race Zen so she wasn't just reduced to a curiosity,a horse that took to a quirky surface.20 years from now,if Zen retired and synthetics long gone,it really would have been looked at more as a novelty than accomplishment.That she'll race this year insures her legacy.And good for us and the game.The table is set for an exciting year and we haven't even wittled down the triple crown horses yet:ThmbUp:

[joanied]

"That she'll race this year insures her legacy.And good for us and the game.The table is set for an exciting year and we haven't even wittled down the triple crown horses yet:ThmbUp:"

Cincy...like your quote (above):ThmbUp: ...as long as Z, RA and the other returnees stay sound, healthy & happy...looks to me like 2010 is going to be outstanding...

bisket...Your post #195, IMO, is excellent:ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

"That she'll race this year insures her legacy.And good for us and the game.The table is set for an exciting year and we haven't even wittled down the triple crown horses yet:ThmbUp:"

Cincy...like your quote (above):ThmbUp: ...as long as Z, RA and the other returnees stay sound, healthy & happy...looks to me like 2010 is going to be outstanding...

bisket...Your post #195, IMO, is excellent:ThmbUp:


The only thing that stinks for a player like myself is that I'm forced to not be able to love Zenyatta.These people make it an either/or situation.That girl's itinerary was front and center on my need to watch list along with RA and STS and I enjoyed every minute of it.The only bitterness I experienced was arguing about who's the best when they were all great.And on 3 different surfaces there was no need to choose who was best.

[joanied]

The only thing that stinks for a player like myself is that I'm forced to not be able to love Zenyatta.These people make it an either/or situation.That girl's itinerary was front and center on my need to watch list along with RA and STS and I enjoyed every minute of it.The only bitterness I experienced was arguing about who's the best when they were all great.And on 3 different surfaces there was no need to choose who was best.

Ah, Cincy....you can love Zenyatta:jump: how can you not...despite this or that, she is the kind of horse you have to fall in love with....and that is besides her greatness...in all the years (well, decades) I've been watching races, I have never seen another horse put on the show that Zenyatta does before the race...that alone, IMO is worth the price of admission:) :ThmbUp: :) ...

Yes, all three, Z, RA, STS are great, gave us incredible thrills, filled us with emotion, gave us something to really root for...and in the end, no one can deny them their claim to greatness. Arguing over which IS the better seems to me an act of futility...because you just cannot compare them...each, in his/her own way, have given racing moments to remember and cherish.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Ah, Cincy....you can love Zenyatta:jump: how can you not...despite this or that, she is the kind of horse you have to fall in love with....and that is besides her greatness...in all the years (well, decades) I've been watching races, I have never seen another horse put on the show that Zenyatta does before the race...that alone, IMO is worth the price of admission:) :ThmbUp: :) ...

Yes, all three, Z, RA, STS are great, gave us incredible thrills, filled us with emotion, gave us something to really root for...and in the end, no one can deny them their claim to greatness. Arguing over which IS the better seems to me an act of futility...because you just cannot compare them...each, in his/her own way, have given racing moments to remember and cherish.



I know.And I do!!

I feel lucky about it all and they should too.Because if I heard this pious whining in my presence might have to distribute some pain!!!!:D

Just kidding!!

I don't think there is any horse in the world that can duplicate Zenyatta's rain dance she does before every race.That is priceless.

And BTW do you remember talking about RA back in the spring??I mentioned how narrow butted she was and posted a picture of her??!!!!

Talk about filling out and becoming a monster.

Joanie you know about horses.Is the maturity between 3 and 4 years old more or less extreme for female horses than males??

Because if RA fills out and gets stronger she could be running BSF in the 120's.I'm just wondering wether there will be a falloff or she comes back a beast.Her stretch gear is unbelieveable.If she's bigger and stronger,heaven help anybody that steps on the track with her.I've never seen that in my lifetime.

[joanied]

I know.And I do!!

I feel lucky about it all and they should too.Because if I heard this pious whining in my presence might have to distribute some pain!!!!:D

Just kidding!!

I don't think there is any horse in the world that can duplicate Zenyatta's rain dance she does before every race.That is priceless.

And BTW do you remember talking about RA back in the spring??I mentioned how narrow butted she was and posted a picture of her??!!!!

Talk about filling out and becoming a monster.

Joanie you know about horses.Is the maturity between 3 and 4 years old more or less extreme for female horses than males??

Because if RA fills out and gets stronger she could be running BSF in the 120's.I'm just wondering wether there will be a falloff or she comes back a beast.Her stretch gear is unbelieveable.If she's bigger and stronger,heaven help anybody that steps on the track with her.I've never seen that in my lifetime.

:ThmbUp: :) :ThmbUp:

I remember that, cincy...and she was kind of weak in the hip...but yes, the females do mature a lot between 3 and 4 years old...and in their 4th year, are still developing...in 'nature' it is development that gets them ready to produce foals...one reason you really want to wait for a female to mature into her 4th year before breeding.
I would think that Rachel has filled out a great deal over the past 4 months...where as Zenyatta is done...what you see is what you get...and ain't it beautiful:) Rachel will fill out more as the year goes on.