Is Uptowncharlybrown for real?

[Moyers Pond]

For those online now, you might want to take a look at Tampa's next race. This Uptowncharliebrown is getting hyped pretty hard as a major derby horse. I will be taking a stand against him though with Silvercraft because of my love for his daddy the gray Value Plus.

[Pell Mell]

YO HO Chucky boy!:jump:

[Moyers Pond]

Definitely a derby horse. Don't know how good, but he will be in the gate if healthy. Very impressive.

[lamboguy]

real good and getting better

[bisket]

YO HO Chucky boy!:jump:
they'll still toss him aside derby day. count on it ;)

[Watcher]

Anyone have a race replay of this?

[phatbastard]

tampa bay site has it

[WinterTriangle]

Definitely a derby horse. Don't know how good, but he will be in the gate if healthy. Very impressive.
Very impressive I agree.
Derby horse, disagree. (Limehouse is good for about 7F.....but the Langfurh might help him out on the damsire side)

if you made me pick today I would go with one of those St. Liam's way before uptowncharliebrown. (Buddy's Saint, Brake Lights are the St. Liams). Just sayin, there are way better IMHO

[NTamm1215]

Very impressive I agree.
Derby horse, disagree. (Limehouse is good for about 7F.....but the Langfurh might help him out on the damsire side)

if you made me pick today I would go with one of those St. Liam's way before uptowncharliebrown. (Buddy's Saint, Brake Lights are the St. Liams). Just sayin, there are way better IMHO

Expect dozens of Derby horses to be mentioned by this poster. It was his MO under various different names around cyberspace over the years.

NT

[WinterTriangle]

Expect dozens of Derby horses to be mentioned by this poster. It was his MO under various different names around cyberspace over the years.

NT

NTamm are you talking about me? Or MP?

'Cause I do like to talk about derby horses --- a bunch of friends and I start tracking 'em early in Janurary. :)

But--- I don't turn my head every time a young horse wins a race. :)

[NTamm1215]

NTamm are you talking about me? Or MP?

'Cause I do like to talk about derby horses --- a bunch of friends and I start tracking 'em early in Janurary. :)

But--- I don't turn my head every time a young horse wins a race. :)

No, not you, the original poster.

NT

[Dahoss9698]

No, not you, the original poster.

NT

I'm glad I'm not the only one that thinks MP is Quiet Chris.

[Pell Mell]

Very impressive I agree.
Derby horse, disagree. (Limehouse is good for about 7F.....but the Langfurh might help him out on the damsire side)

if you made me pick today I would go with one of those St. Liam's way before uptowncharliebrown. (Buddy's Saint, Brake Lights are the St. Liams). Just sayin, there are way better IMHO

You seem to be another who places way too much weight on the immediate sire. You say he may get some stamina from Langfurh. Langfuhr is a grand son of Northern Dancer who is found on both sides, as is Mr Prospector who is a decendant of the great distance horse Teddy.

One must examine the family and the prepotent sires in the family lines but you choose to ignore this. There are no less than 6 sires in Chucky's pedigree that are sons and grandsons of the great sire Nearco. Also, the last 13-14 winners of the ARC trace right back to Nearco but according to you there is no stamina there.

[CincyHorseplayer]

It's only January but I thought UTCB looked pretty green on the turn.It took him forever to get into a gear and he didn't open up til late.Let's see what he looks like at 2 turns though.

[WinterTriangle]

You seem to be another who places way too much weight on the immediate sire.


That was my cursory quick take. That post, I did speak too soon about sire---- but honestly, Pell Mell, there are just others who already appear to me to "have the goods" based on more indepth workups.:confused:

My actual derby list has 50 horses on it, I don't even go thru them carefully until April. I have a friend who does pedigree research like a banshee, goes back 5 generations and gets into female tails and all manner of stuff that is beyond my abilities. :) (he is one of those people who can play maiden races and get trifectas and superfectas).

I have some baseline horses and I can't help but compare the newest winners to them.

3/4 of these we all remark about will be history by Derby day, we all had the supposed top 5 in our RTTR last year and by 10 weeks out they were off the derby trail. :bang: It's fun to talk about them this early, but please don't take my posts as more than conjecture at this stage.

[Pell Mell]

That was my cursory quick take. That post, I did speak too soon about sire---- but honestly, Pell Mell, there are just others who already appear to me to "have the goods" based on more indepth workups.:confused:

My actual derby list has 50 horses on it, I don't even go thru them carefully until April. I have a friend who does pedigree research like a banshee, goes back 5 generations and gets into female tails and all manner of stuff that is beyond my abilities. :) (he is one of those people who can play maiden races and get trifectas and superfectas).

I have some baseline horses and I can't help but compare the newest winners to them.

3/4 of these we all remark about will be history by Derby day, we all had the supposed top 5 in our RTTR last year and by 10 weeks out they were off the derby trail. :bang: It's fun to talk about them this early, but please don't take my posts as more than conjecture at this stage.

Conjecture is all we can do at this point. I haven't completed my list yet but there are a few things to keep in mind...... The late bloomers are doing better all the time.....classic distances require classic breeding, 1 1/8 is not classic.

Last year I had 7 horses from my pedigree list start in the derby and 5 of the first 6 finishers were there. Pioneer was the oddball to me.

PS- The 2 you mentioned are on my list. :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

I was not a fan of Pioneer. He eluded my interest. Are you saying you didn't play him either? Not that last year would have made a difference with MTB winning. :)

One must examine the family and the prepotent sires in the family lines but you choose to ignore this. There are no less than 6 sires in Chucky's pedigree that are sons and grandsons of the great sire Nearco. Also, the last 13-14 winners of the ARC trace right back to Nearco

I re-read this and realized it's like saying "one can trace athletic humans back to the first two poeple on earth." :)

Since the Eclipse line is the direct ancestor of more than 90% all stallions standing at stud in the world, and most popular descendants were Native Dancer and Nearco---based on that, how many other 2010 derby contenders, or arc contenders, or any other decent horses on the track every day, have Nearco, or Northen Dancer? ;) LOTS. We are talking sire of sires and most popular broodmare sires in the US and England.

Both Nearco's and ND's aptitudinal group is in the Briliant category...that's the speed category....they transmit raw speed (not stamina). That's why they're influential.

But---you telling me there's Nearco somewhere way-back-where in a pedigree doesn't tell me much of anything about separating out 100+ derby potential horses.

I have to look at Classic, Solid and Professional so I can get speed-to-stamina ratios.

I'm interested to know: how many Kentucky Derby winners a horse has in the first 4 generations. I believe the closer up in a pedigree, the more influence. Some prefer to go farther back........I don't. For the reasons I already stated.

While I'm not into Solid or Professional-laden dosages, I DO like to see some stamina "up close" in the pedigree.... but that's just me.

I also can't compare our TC races to the Arc...that's a really bad comparison, IMHO. Esp. since the Arc is run on turf.

Anyway, I put a list up in tc forum, but it's already outdated. :) Let's exchange some stuff in a month or so.

[bisket]

just off that race at tampa; charley can get 1 1/8 mile in grade 1 3 year old company. he's gonna win a prep at 1 1/8 mile, no doubt. what i mostly look at in 7 furlong races for 3 year olds this time of year is early fractions and how the horse responds to them. what i really want to see late in a 7 fur race is the horse moving forwardly after relaxing early. chuck exceeded those expectations by quite a bit. very nice early pace for him, and relaxed nicely doing it. much the best late. he's a derby horse. they just need to bring him along and cross their fingers that they don't have a setback.

[Cardus]

I was not a fan of Pioneer. He eluded my interest. Are you saying you didn't play him either? Not that last year would have made a difference with MTB winning. :)



I re-read this and realized it's like saying "one can trace athletic humans back to the first two poeple on earth." :)

Since the Eclipse line is the direct ancestor of more than 90% all stallions standing at stud in the world, and most popular descendants were Native Dancer and Nearco---based on that, how many other 2010 derby contenders, or arc contenders, or any other decent horses on the track every day, have Nearco, or Northen Dancer? ;) LOTS. We are talking sire of sires and most popular broodmare sires in the US and England.

Both Nearco's and ND's aptitudinal group is in the Briliant category...that's the speed category....they transmit raw speed (not stamina). That's why they're influential.

But---you telling me there's Nearco somewhere way-back-where in a pedigree doesn't tell me much of anything about separating out 100+ derby potential horses.

I have to look at Classic, Solid and Professional so I can get speed-to-stamina ratios.

I'm interested to know: how many Kentucky Derby winners a horse has in the first 4 generations. I believe the closer up in a pedigree, the more influence. Some prefer to go farther back........I don't. For the reasons I already stated.

While I'm not into Solid or Professional-laden dosages, I DO like to see some stamina "up close" in the pedigree.... but that's just me.

I also can't compare our TC races to the Arc...that's a really bad comparison, IMHO. Esp. since the Arc is run on turf.

Anyway, I put a list up in tc forum, but it's already outdated. :) Let's exchange some stuff in a month or so.

For someone who discusses Dosage, you seem to neglect or not to understand the Dosage Index.

For anyone who believes in the "theory" -- particularly as it relates to the Derby, about the only time it is discussed -- I would think that a Solid or Professional pedigree would matter greatly.

I mention this while understanding that Dosage Theory does not have the same impact as it did 30 years ago, mostly due to the change in breeding practices.

[WinterTriangle]

For someone who discusses Dosage, you seem to neglect or not to understand the Dosage Index.

For anyone who believes in the "theory" -- particularly as it relates to the Derby, about the only time it is discussed -- I would think that a Solid or Professional pedigree would matter greatly.

I mention this while understanding that Dosage Theory does not have the same impact as it did 30 years ago, mostly due to the change in breeding practices.

Perhaps you didn't read my post carefully. I did NOT say that Solid and Prof didnt matter. I siad I use it to determine stamina.

I said mostly Brilliant points does not win KY Derbies and then I said "I have to look at Classic, Solid and Professional so I can get speed-to-stamina ratios... "

I also mentioned I'm not into solid or Prof LADEN profiles, because without some speed and classic they don't win at 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 (OUR type races here.) Find me a horse that was LADEN with mostly Solid and Prof, and very little of the other points, (B I or C) that won the KY derby ..........you are talking marathoners when all the points are in the last 2 categories S & P.

[Pell Mell]

Uptowncharlybrown dropped from 250/1 to 22/1 in the futures.



http://www.brisnet.com/php/fw/bris_library/Index

[toussaud]

not impressed

[egreen]

I got a tweet that Charly's BRIS fig in the Pasco was 94.