Meadowlands recap for Thurs. Jan. 14

[markgoldie]

Unusual pace scenario unfolded with an average pace of over +5. This doesn't happen very often in winter racing but I suppose the warmer temperatures (as compared to recent nights) had the drivers a bit less conservative. Horses that I am adding to my "watch list" are so noted.

Thursday, Jan. 14, 2010
Average First-quarter percentage : 24.47. Average pace:+5.91
Breaking-point quarter cutoff 24.02. Races 7 and 10 were BPQ races.

Race 1 EC F&M Aver. Str. about 75 (FQ% 24.17; +7 Pace)
Fractions: 27.4 56.4 126.2 155
#1 Bryan’s Ideal. Brush to top, own clip, stop. Possible bounce.
#3 Real Shark. Very weak 1st over.
#4 RD Blues. Inside close.
#5 The Sweet Dion. Trapped inside, okay close.
#7 TC’s Delight. Good close off bad cover.
#8 I’m All Country. Good close off bad cover.
#9 Look Siera. Lv., 3 hole. No close.

Race 2 Trot NW $10,000 Av. Str. about 92. (FQ% 24.78; +9 Pace)
Fractions: 28.2 56.2 124.4 154.3
#1 Let’s Get Serious. Early brush to top, bottomed field.
#2 Yankee Matthew. Inside close.
#3 Trotslikethewind. Distant 1st over. Weakened.
#4 Dynamite Diva. Left, gapped. Weakened.
#6 August Revenue. 2nd over. Even close
#8 Guiding Light. 3rd over. Good close.

Race 3 EC F&M. Av. Str. about 76. (FQ% 24.86; +1)
Fractions: 28 56.1 124.1 152.3
#3 Koko D’oro. 1st over moderate.
#4 Auroring Doll. Left, good trip moderate close.
#8Jawjackin. Left, dropped in, brush to top, held okay.
#7 Your Raider Girl. 2nd ov. No exc. Mild.
#6 Laughandbehappy, Leave, yield. Easily.

Race 4 Pace NW $6,000. Av str. about 81. (FQ%24.60; +5 Pace)
Fractions: 28 56.2 124.2 153.4
#2 Lil Dudes Mach Up. Lv, brush top, pressed, weakened late.
#6 Vintage Treasure, Lv., top, yield, good trip close.
#7 Life’s Tricks, fast close from last. ADD watch list.
#8 Live Blue. Followed cover, closed.
#10 Jessies Classy Art. 2nd over behind bad cover, 3 wide, good try.

Race 5 Trot NW $10,000 Aver. Str. about 83. (FQ% 24.57; +10 Pace)
Fractions:28.4 57.3 ? 157.1
#1 Extreme Yankee, Inside/outside even close.
#3 Dingy’s Party. Railed, some close.
#5 Shocker. Left, 2 hole nothing.
#6 Zero Boundaries. Left, cut, pressed, held well on +10 pace. ADD to watch list.
#2 Designable. Rail.
#10 One Sharp Spur. 2nd over, okay close, rough near wire.

Race 6 EC F&M Av. Str. about 77 (FQ% 24.12; +6 Pace)
Fractions 27.3 56.3 125.1 154.2
#2 Pretty Wicked. 3 hole even close.
#4 I Can’t Stop Lovin You. Top own clip, weakened.
#6 Regal Wish. Inside/outs close.
#8 Cherish Melody. Dead rail close.
#9 Future Fire. Leave 2 hole, pulled late 1st over, top, held.

Race 7 Pace F&M Clm. $30,000 Av. Str. about 84 (FQ% 24.02; +14 Pace)
#1 Run On Luck. First over good effort.
#2 Lady Sometimes. Inside angled, okay close.
#5 Sand Pleasure. Outside even close.
#6 Village Bolero. 2 hole good trip, top weaken late. Gd. try fast pace.
#7 Spectacular Cam. Outside okay close.
#9 Ali Rush. Rail moderate.

Race 8 EC F&M. Av. Str. about 78 (FQ%24.04; +8 Pace)
Fractions: 27.3 56.3 126 154.4
#1 Trisa. Late angle close.
#3 Amarillo Sky. Backside brush to top. Held okay.
#4 Balasun. 2nd over. Good close.
#5 Pretty Lurleen. Lv. Ins/outs close.
#8 Catawba. Leave, top, yield, weaken in hole.

Race 9 Pace NW $6,000 Av. Str. about 81. (FQ% 25.08; -4 Pace)
Fractions: 28.2 57 125.2 153.1
#1 Executive Fella. Inside close.
#2 Twofourseven. 2nd over even.
#4 Seymour Doolittle. 2 hole faded.
#6 Hilo. 4th over, good close.
#5 Out Of My Hands. 3rd over mild close.
#10 Willis Coder. Strong 1st over, handily.

Race 10. Trot Clm. $20,000. Av. Str. about 86 (FQ% 24.02; +15 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 57.1 127.4 157.2
#2 Lotsa Speed. 2nd over. Closed
#3 Celtic Hall. 3rd over in good flow, even close.
#8 Autumn Victory. Broke. Good recovery.
#9 Mighty Moses. 5th over, good close. ADD to watch list.

Race 11 Pace NW 3 Pm. Av. Str,. about 75 (FQ% 25.08; -6)
Fractions: 28.3 57.3 126.3 154
#! Liveitluvitdreamit. Ins./outs close
#2 Sign Of The Moment. In position. Closed.
#8 Mystical delight. 2nd over. Easily.
#5 McClelland. Inside, tight quarters split with pace. ADD to watch.

[LottaKash]

Had a hard time keeping my eyes open, both at M1 & Wdb.....Is it old age or just the racing there, last nite ?

best,

[markgoldie]

Both. :D

[am1947]

Hi Mark,

"Race 7 Pace F&M Clm. $30,000 Av. Str. about 84 (FQ% 24.02; +14 Pace)
#1 Run On Luck. First over good effort.
#2 Lady Sometimes. Inside angled, okay close.
#5 Sand Pleasure. Outside even close.
#6 Village Bolero. 2 hole good trip, top weaken late. Gd. try fast pace.
#7 Spectacular Cam. Outside okay close.
#9 Ali Rush. Rail moderate."


Curious as to why neither #6 Village Bolero or #8 Lightning Dragon made your
watch list? As they were both involved in the BPQ. I see you said good try on #6 why just "2 hole good trip" as he did go outside?

Thanks again for the excellent recaps!
AM

[LottaKash]

Both. :D

Wow MG, old age & crappy races, maybe it's time to find some of those old Playboy's, you know for the "articles".....:jump:...to stimulate me and keep me awake on nite's such as these.....I love to read...

best,

[markgoldie]

Hi Mark,

"Race 7 Pace F&M Clm. $30,000 Av. Str. about 84 (FQ% 24.02; +14 Pace)
#1 Run On Luck. First over good effort.
#2 Lady Sometimes. Inside angled, okay close.
#5 Sand Pleasure. Outside even close.
#6 Village Bolero. 2 hole good trip, top weaken late. Gd. try fast pace.
#7 Spectacular Cam. Outside okay close.
#9 Ali Rush. Rail moderate."


Curious as to why neither #6 Village Bolero or #8 Lightning Dragon made your
watch list? As they were both involved in the BPQ. I see you said good try on #6 why just "2 hole good trip" as he did go outside?

Thanks again for the excellent recaps!
AM
I actually had Village Bolero on my watch list and then removed her. This is a fine-line call and certainly she deserves attention when she next races.
I did the removal based on three things: (1) She is a habitual front-runner and so she is used to fast-paced races; it's nothing at all new to her; (2) Even though she left sharply in a BPQ, she rode a perfect pocket for a long while before moving easily to the lead from a mare who offered no resistance; and (3) The QUALITY of the BPQ's on this card were a bit weak. They were right at what we would call a cutoff. A "normal" deviation of a BPQ from the average nightly standard is .45 difference. The average was 24.47 and so this race was right at what I might call the BPQ standard for the night. I say "might" because this spread is not written in stone and other considerations enter my thought process when calling the standard. One such consideration is the pace average for the night. On this night, the pace average was high and so I even tinkered with the idea of calling NO BPQ's on this card (and I would be comfortable with the argument that there were none).

So even though I called the standard at 24.02, I felt should demand not only a BPQ, but a complete cut attempt AND a subsequent good finishing performance. Not having this, I removed her. But again, she demands attention in her next out.

As for Lightning Dragon, her final performance just wasn't good enough for me to get excited. If you remember, when I first opened this line of thought on the forum, I said that in order to qualify as a superior performance, we would like a finish no worse than one position back of the horse's odds' position as determined by the wagering. This also is subject to some interpretation since very poor performances by a horse or two in the race may skew the finishing position of the animal. In this case, Lightning Dragon Actually outperformed her odds position, but she only beat two poorly-performing horses. In addition, she did not actually "make" the first-quarter split and as I said before, the standard itself was iffy for the night. And so, I am not overly excited by the performance of this mare.

Anyway, good questions and I am very happy that at least one person on the forum is catching my drift. :ThmbUp:

[am1947]

Mark

Thanks for the clarifictions. :ThmbUp:

I had figured the BPQ was close but when trying to adjust to something
different just wanted to be sure . The bulb is getting a bit brighter
as I play with this. Thanks for the efforts. :ThmbUp:

I see Mighty Young Joe is in the 9th Sat may offer some value with Stacey up.

AM

[markgoldie]

Mark

Thanks for the clarifictions. :ThmbUp:

I had figured the BPQ was close but when trying to adjust to something
different just wanted to be sure . The bulb is getting a bit brighter
as I play with this. Thanks for the efforts. :ThmbUp:

I see Mighty Young Joe is in the 9th Sat may offer some value with Stacey up.

AM
I can guarantee you one thing, am: If you start looking at results through the prism of half-mile pace and first-quarter pace, all of a sudden the results start to make more sense.

I don't have the Sat. pp's downloaded yet- running a bit behind (might catch up if my phone would stop ringing), but I'm sure you're right.