Suspicious Drops

[only11]

Another one bite the dust @the big A yesterday Wild Tonga finished dead last at odds on..dropping down to the basement...the public made this horse odds on..
I ask the question should horses with suspicious class drops be scratch?
Me personally i just pass on the race..IMO i think they should be scratch..

[NTamm1215]

Another one bite the dust @the big A yesterday Wild Tonga finished dead last at odds on..dropping down to the basement...the public made this horse odds on..
I ask the question should horses with suspicious class drops be scratch?
Me personally i just pass on the race..IMO i think they should be scratch..

You think they should be scratched? What would possibly give you that idea? Should Cantrushperfection have been scratched in the nightcap today?

NT

[Tom]

Why scratch them? They were entered! :confused:

[letswastemoney]

If you know the horse is a bad play, then there's money to be made.

You make money by being smarter than all the other handicappers and you can make a lot of money betting against a vulnerable horse dropping in class, if you truly believe he can be beaten.

No reason to scratch though, unless the horse has a life threatening injury.

[Robert Goren]

They win just often enough to screw you over no matter whether you bet on them or against them. I often look for a horse coming out the same race.

[swami13]

hopefully I think he means scratched from his handicapping of the race, of course I could be wrong :bang:

[post time]

[QUOTE=only11]Another one bite the dust @the big A yesterday Wild Tonga finished dead last at odds on..dropping down to the basement...the public made this horse odds on..
I ask the question should horses with suspicious class drops be scratch?
Me personally i just pass on the race..IMO i think they should be scratch..[/QUOTE I like to pass the races with major droppers from the top trainers because they drop to win at low odds.

[Stillriledup]

I think that they need to announce claims before the race. That way, you would know if a horse has a 'hole' in him or not. (not always, but if i'm betting a horse dropping from 40k to 10k and he has 7 claims entered, i'd feel much better than if he has 0 claims)

[macdiarmida]

Originally posted by Stillriledup:
I think that they need to announce claims before the race. That way, you would know if a horse has a 'hole' in him or not.You can bet them, but I won't. Hollendorfer is/was well known for dropping horses to the bottom in NorCal, each with multiple claims in, up to 10(!), in the days when there was more claiming done i.e. when people had the money. The droppers' win and ITM percentages were okay but not like Hollendorfer's normal win rate. ROI was a minus number. Someone here might still have stats to that effect. Quite a few of those horses never ran again much less win another race. Similar thing happened when Hurd (sp?) was going nuts in the '70s in a claiming war with Frankel. IIRC Frankel's ROI was pretty good, not Hurd's. And on and on and on.

[Norm]

I agree it is best to pass. These horses seldom win, but occasionally they do, just often enough to screw up your profit margin. One alternate strategy is to bet against them in the place pool. If they fold up and run out, you get a nice place pool pay-off. If they come to life and win, at least you get something back for your risk.

[only11]

I think that they need to announce claims before the race. That way, you would know if a horse has a 'hole' in him or not. (not always, but if i'm betting a horse dropping from 40k to 10k and he has 7 claims entered, i'd feel much better than if he has 0 claims)
Bingo!agree 100%

[Robert Goren]

I think that they need to announce claims before the race. That way, you would know if a horse has a 'hole' in him or not. (not always, but if i'm betting a horse dropping from 40k to 10k and he has 7 claims entered, i'd feel much better than if he has 0 claims)7 claims or 0 claims, the horse has a 'hole' in him. The question is how big is the 'hole'.

[onefast99]

7 claims or 0 claims, the horse has a 'hole' in him. The question is how big is the 'hole'.
One thing you need to remember when these horses are dropped to the bottom they don't need to give a huge effort to come away a winner. Happens all the time where a former allowance or stakes winner who may have won a race with a 90 beyer runs a 62 beyer and still wins for fun.

[Kimsus]

Another one bite the dust @the big A yesterday Wild Tonga finished dead last at odds on..dropping down to the basement...the public made this horse odds on..
I ask the question should horses with suspicious class drops be scratch?
Me personally i just pass on the race..IMO i think they should be scratch..

Frank Passero Jr. used to make a living off of these races at GP and did it well, why should they be automatically scratched? It's always been part of horseracing, though I rarely play big with these type it is a necessity to wagering and playing races. Favorites are often beat and that is when $ is made.

[illinoisbred]

Charlie Whittingham once said -horses are like strawberries, they can go bad over night. A horse can win for 25,000 and be a mere shadow of that 3 weeks later. Most small outfits never seem to drop "a horse gone bad " far enough to either win or risk losing the horse.

[onefast99]

Charlie Whittingham once said -horses are like strawberries, they can go bad over night. A horse can win for 25,000 and be a mere shadow of that 3 weeks later. Most small outfits never seem to drop "a horse gone bad " far enough to either win or risk losing the horse.
Prior to Kelly breen getting the Halls as his new owners he also made a nice living off the drops, in fact it added to two MP training titles.

[andymays]

Indy Ride in yesterdays third at Santa Anita was a suspicious dropper. His race before was a suspicious drop as well. Not a glaring example of a suspicious dropper but one nonetheless.

The race on November 29th was a key race and Indy Ride ran a respectable beyer off a two month layoff. You would think they would give it another shot at the same level but they dropped into 25k claimers nw2L and ran third. The race yesterday was 12.5k nw2l and Indy ride ran third. Spawr was clearly hoping someone claimed him (he wasn't even gelded before the last two starts and is by a fairly hot sire Candy Ride). He got his wish yesterday when Jack Carava claimed him.

The winner of the race was dropping (Just Heat) but it was not a suspicious drop because the gelding was claimed out of a 12.5cl nw2l in August at Del Mar.

[BlueShoe]

One of my favorite go against plays is a runner dropping in class off of a good race. Even better if it has a bad workout pattern. For example, in its last race it finished 3rd beaten 1 length for a claiming price of 25k. The last race was 35 days ago. It either shows no published works, or at most, one short slow breeze since that race. It is entered today for 20 or even 16k. A horse like this will go off a very short price, often odds on, and I will attempt to beat it every time. Do these types win? Sure they do, but the roi on this kind must be horrible. They dont give race horses away, and it is as if the barn is hanging a sign on the animal stating that it is walking on eggs, and they hope that it holds together enough to get at least a piece of the purse, and they very much want it to be claimed. This type of suspicious drop only applies to claiming races. A horse that has been getting pieces of stake races that shows up in an allowance race for which it still is eligible for can be a very good wager, although at a likely short price. A good example of the shaky dropper type is the example given above by Andy.

[andymays]

One of my favorite go against plays is a runner dropping in class off of a good race. Even better if it has a bad workout pattern. For example, in its last race it finished 3rd beaten 1 length for a claiming price of 25k. The last race was 35 days ago. It either shows no published works, or at most, one short slow breeze since that race. It is entered today for 20 or even 16k. A horse like this will go off a very short price, often odds on, and I will attempt to beat it every time. Do these types win? Sure they do, but the roi on this kind must be horrible. They dont give race horses away, and it is as if the barn is hanging a sign on the animal stating that it is walking on eggs, and they hope that it holds together enough to get at least a piece of the purse, and they very much want it to be claimed. This type of suspicious drop only applies to claiming races. A horse that has been getting pieces of stake races that shows up in an allowance race for which it still is eligible for can be a very good wager, although at a likely short price. A good example of the shaky dropper type is the example given above by Andy.


Good Example! :ThmbUp:

That's why it's important to read the PP's from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced. Players who don't do that like "program" players or sheet players who only go by recent numbers, are at a dissadvantage if they don't consider workouts since raced and don't read the PP's from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced.

[GaryG]

That's why it's important to read the PP's from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced.Absolutely. Just imagine you are training the horse. This makes it clear who are the competent trainers and who are just winging it.

[tzipi]

I watch their PRE-RACE workouts and see if they are not warming up like a healthy horse does,I bang out exactas leaving them out. Made nice money over the years on this move.

I see these horses with short strides going to the gate with little pre-race workout and people keep plowing money on them?

[Robert Goren]

A drop and a fast WO. The receipe for a torn up ticket.

[therussmeister]

Another one bite the dust @the big A yesterday Wild Tonga finished dead last at odds on..dropping down to the basement...the public made this horse odds on..
I ask the question should horses with suspicious class drops be scratch?
Me personally i just pass on the race..IMO i think they should be scratch..

I dislike the attitude of: If I can't figure out how to deal with a dilemma it should be banned.

[westny]

I dislike the attitude of: If I can't figure out how to deal with a dilemma it should be banned.


:lol:

Better not bet Aqu in winter becasue there are scores of 7.5k races like the Wild CONGA..not (TONGA ) 3rd race on 13th.

[BlueShoe]

Here is an example from today fridays 5th at Santa Anita. The 4-5 favorite Eternally Fast finished 2nd beaten half a length on Oct 30 at SA for a claiming price of 50,000. Kept away for seven weeks he surfaced for 32,000 at HOL. on Dec 19. He wired his field over a very glib surface winning by four lengths. Off of that performance he would appear to have been capable of stepping up and repeating against 40 or 50k company, or perhaps even a first level allowance. This is assuming that he was sound. The gap between races and the double class drop raised the first flag. The second went up because the claiming price in todays race for 3yr. olds is 25,000. He is dropping again one level after an impressive win against tougher. After a tough trip from his outside post Eternally Fast did manage to finish 2nd, but he did lose the race. On paper, his speed and pace figs were much the best, but those two drops in a row after good races told us that this runner may not have been completely sound.

[WinterTriangle]

I don't get the dropping in class mania. I never wager them. I wonder how many $$ a week are lost by that "dropping" angle? :D

I look hard for an opportunity to play a horse going UP in class. I love a trainer who believes in a horse, and in themselves.

Besides, the dropping in class angle is usually chalk.

[RichieP]

Here is an example from today fridays 5th at Santa Anita. The 4-5 favorite Eternally Fast finished 2nd beaten half a length on Oct 30 at SA for a claiming price of 50,000. Kept away for seven weeks he surfaced for 32,000 at HOL. on Dec 19. He wired his field over a very glib surface winning by four lengths. Off of that performance he would appear to have been capable of stepping up and repeating against 40 or 50k company, or perhaps even a first level allowance. This is assuming that he was sound. The gap between races and the double class drop raised the first flag. The second went up because the claiming price in todays race for 3yr. olds is 25,000. He is dropping again one level after an impressive win against tougher. After a tough trip from his outside post Eternally Fast did manage to finish 2nd, but he did lose the race. On paper, his speed and pace figs were much the best, but those two drops in a row after good races told us that this runner may not have been completely sound.

Sharp post, perfectly laid out! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[only11]

I dislike the attitude of: If I can't figure out how to deal with a dilemma it should be banned.
First and foremost if you read it my post...i do deal with the dilemma i pass the race..
Does anyone have any research on horses who make suspicious drops?How many win?breakdown?return lame?claimed?

[CincyHorseplayer]

This might be slightly off topic,but suspicious drops usually qualifies under the false favorite banner.For me within a race week I can usually find at least a handful of them(that I'm right about).And specifically making it a point to find a favorite I absolutely loathe.Because if you are right,nearly every betting scenario is overlaid.Routine 4-1 shots and up coupled with exactas $80 and up are common when one of these favorites tank.Any player should salivate over the opportunity at hand.

[horses4courses]

2-14-18

GP R5

:4: Admiral Jimmy (3-5 ML)


Pletcher is hard to question when it comes
to putting over winners at Gulfstream (29%)
This horse has been off since September,
is stakes placed, and towers above these
on class. In for a $12500 tag, though,
you can hear the shouts of "CLAIM ME"
from a mile away. :eek:

I'll let him win without any of my money on him.

[BrentT]

2-14-18

GP R5

:4: Admiral Jimmy (3-5 ML)


Pletcher is hard to question when it comes
to putting over winners at Gulfstream (29%)
This horse has been off since September,
is stakes placed, and towers above these
on class. In for a $12500 tag, though,
you can hear the shouts of "CLAIM ME"
from a mile away. :eek:

I'll let him win without any of my money on him.

Ugh.....The absolute worse guy in racing to claim from

[jay68802]

To bad the race is not part of the Rainbow 6.

[cj]

With the purse to claiming price ration so skewed these days, suspicious drops aren't what they used to be.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Announcing claims pre-race would do nothing to indicate the soundness of a horse. I remember a race at Parx where R Dutrow shipped a semi-suspicious dropper (named Not For Money) from NY to compete for a jacked up purse on an Owners Appreciation Day. I've never seen the area near the claim box so busy. There were 16 claims in for the horse, who finished a well beaten third in a field of 8. I know all this because we claimed a different horse out of the same race, and were the only ones in the box for him.

It took 8 more races and 4 months before Not For Money won again.

In my opinion, you'd get a better idea of how well meant a claimer is by counting the number of people with the horse in the paddock above the trainer and groom. When I owned horses, whenever I had one in that I thought had a good chance to win, I was at the track, and in the paddock if at all possible. This is by no means reliable, but it's still a hell of a lot better than knowing how many other people were thinking the same way about claiming a horse. That has close to ZERO value.

[PointGiven]

If you know the horse is a bad play, then there's money to be made.

You make money by being smarter than all the other handicappers and you can make a lot of money betting against a vulnerable horse dropping in class, if you truly believe he can be beaten.

No reason to scratch though, unless the horse has a life threatening injury.

This.

[cj]

You can get graded stakes winner Theory for 25k on Sunday at Aqueduct.

[Inner Dirt]

With the purse to claiming price ration so skewed these days, suspicious drops aren't what they used to be.

Agreed.

[classhandicapper]

With the purse to claiming price ration so skewed these days, suspicious drops aren't what they used to be.

I agree.

It changes the math when you can earn so much with the win that you can afford to lose the horse for less than he's worth.

[fiznow]

Actually my best longshots have been horses who rise up in class, with competitive form and speed figures. It's one of my favorite angles. ;)

[onefast99]

Announcing claims pre-race would do nothing to indicate the soundness of a horse. I remember a race at Parx where R Dutrow shipped a semi-suspicious dropper (named Not For Money) from NY to compete for a jacked up purse on an Owners Appreciation Day. I've never seen the area near the claim box so busy. There were 16 claims in for the horse, who finished a well beaten third in a field of 8. I know all this because we claimed a different horse out of the same race, and were the only ones in the box for him.

It took 8 more races and 4 months before Not For Money won again.

In my opinion, you'd get a better idea of how well meant a claimer is by counting the number of people with the horse in the paddock above the trainer and groom. When I owned horses, whenever I had one in that I thought had a good chance to win, I was at the track, and in the paddock if at all possible. This is by no means reliable, but it's still a hell of a lot better than knowing how many other people were thinking the same way about claiming a horse. That has close to ZERO value.
Trying to follow your logic here so maybe after my questions you can respond. There are many times when we race where I invite a friend or two that never was in the paddock area and wanted to see the interactions with the trainer and the groom and the jock. We recently ran a claimer at Parx last Saturday that finished 4th, the big favorite had a trainer and a groom no more no less, so my question is if you load up the paddock area with people the general consensus is that horse was meant to win that race? You also mention the NY horses coming in, Parx has been a dumping ground for drop down NY horses for ever. Some will tell you due to the strict NY rules and regulations regarding certain race prep medications others will tell you NY is too competitive. I wouldn't take any NY horse coming in even if it looked like the claim of the century. last but not least is the announcement of claimed horses prior to the race going off, that is done in standard breds and wouldn't mean anything in t-breds, soundness cant be assured by a claim or two in on a certain horse. as you know from being in the game, "buyer beware".

[dlivery]

You are CERECT

Fri.Feb 16 2018

MAIDEN CLAIMING. 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $21,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000. (02:32 PM) (8)

Last work out on the Winner and where the horse finished off the competition on the turn as soon the leader looked over.
:popcorn::puke:

[HalvOnHorseracing]

In talking with an owner at the NHC he said most owners or trainers are getting rid of the lower quality horses (by dropping them in price) to make room for their two-year olds.

I believe that is what Pletcher is doing

[jay68802]

In talking with an owner at the NHC he said most owners or trainers are getting rid of the lower quality horses (by dropping them in price) to make room for their two-year olds.

I believe that is what Pletcher is doing

:ThmbUp:


And he got his wish.

[onefast99]

In talking with an owner at the NHC he said most owners or trainers are getting rid of the lower quality horses (by dropping them in price) to make room for their two-year olds.

I believe that is what Pletcher is doingThat maybe one explanation or the one that always comes to mind when the big outfits drop is the horse was running over its head so the trainer could justify their $125 a day rate or the owner thought he had the next Arrogate. Now that the horse has run two or three times the drop is the last step before a significant trainer change to a less competitive track. Since the IRS write offs are pretty solid the days of dropping in December for tax benefits are gone.

[davew]

You can get graded stakes winner Theory for 25k on Sunday at Aqueduct.

I bet on a horse that won a MCL20000 3 races back, and finished ahead of this Breeders Cup Juvenile runner.

4 horses claimed from 8 horse race, and Theory was not one of them.

[cj]

I bet on a horse that won a MCL20000 3 races back, and finished ahead of this Breeders Cup Juvenile runner.

4 horses claimed from 8 horse race, and Theory was not one of them.

I know I wouldn't have claimed him.