Meadowlands recap for Wed., 1/13

[markgoldie]

Kind of what I would call a "quiet" night at the Big M. No major weather or wind issues apparent and for the most part, horses got reasonably smooth trips. The average strength ratings will continue to get better as we get more races over the track and we can already see that they are more closely correlating to the numbers that Trackmaster assigns (if you are a TM user). Although an "average" number can be deceiving since a given race may have a standout or two horses, it still gives a reasonable indication of the competition level that the horse faced. The point of the exercise, of course, is twofold: (1) It adds a class element to the raw speed figures that you may use which are based on times and (2) It can point out discrepancies in the classes. In the case of this night's racing, we can see the differences in the different legs of the same EC Series and in the claiming ranks, we see that the race #7 claimer for $20,000 was no stronger than the 10th race $15,000 event. The teletimer bore this out, but for those who are skeptical of raw times (and I'm not saying you shouldn't be), the class rating confirms that this was not unexpected. Another way of putting it might be that the 10th race winner, Letters From Home, should be a very live threat when placed in a $20,000 event.
Other than that (and sorry I'm in a chatty mood here...maybe too much coffee), the BMLP shippers continue to do well and this confirms my long-held belief that the BMLP numbers (and I'm talking about TM adjusted numbers) are the strongest in the country. This is with the possible exception of Cal Expo, but so little cross-shipping gets done from there, that it seemingly makes little difference. In different terms, the horses coming from Balmoral are rock solid class for class. In fact, a sharp owner or trainer might have claimed Letters From Home last night for the $15,000, because his BMLP numbers were confirmed out on the track. He is just better than an East-Coast $15,000 horse. At any rate, enough. On to the recap...

Wednesday, Jan. 14
Average First-quarter percentage: 24.47, BPQ cutoff 24.00. Average pace: +3.6
There were 0 BPQ races on this card.


Race 1 EC Trot. Av. Str. about 84 (FQ% 24.39; +8 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 57 127 155.3
#2 Beautiful Legacy. 1st over, held.
#4 Little Creek Vic. 3 hole, inside close.
#9 Perfect Hope. Left, parked to top, +8 pace, crumbled.

Race 2 EC Trot. Av. Str. about 82 (FQ% 25.00; 0 Pace)
Fractions: 29.2 58.4 127.1 157.3
#2 V I P. Pinned in late with trot. ADD to watch list.
#3 Mystic River. 2nd over, okay close.
#5 Grey Ice. 1st over grind, weakened.
#10 Clear The Air. Leave, yield, 3rd over, okay close.

Race 3 EC Trot. Av. Str, about 84 (FQ% 24.26; +9 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 57.1 127.3 156.1
#1 In To Win. Early take of top, pressed, weakened.
#3 Baaria. Leave, 3 hole, ins/outs closed evenly
#4 Pennant Winner. 2nd over, moderate.
#6 Rock With It. 3rd over. Okay late trot.
#7 Aachoo. 1st over Big effort.
#9 Ladainian. Lv, pk top, yield, rail.

Race 4 NW 2 PM races. Av. Str. about 72. (FQ% 24.68; -3 Pace)
Fractions: 27.4 56.3 125.1 152.3
#6 Wayne The Lefty, Leave, top, gamely.
#9 Vintage Fenom. Outside, passed tired ones.
#10 Lies Lies Lies. 2nd over, no match.

Race 5 EC Trot. Av. Str. about 83 (FQ% 24.48; +2 Pace)
Fractions: 28.3 58.1 128 156.4
#2 I Like Strike. Bad-gaited early. Off gate. 3rd over, okay closed.
#6 Scotch And Caviar. 1st over, good effort.
#7 POW. 2nd over behind live cover. No excuses.
#9 St. Giannis. Leave, top, own clip, held well.

Race 6 EC Trot Av. Str. about 85 (FQ% 24.26; +5 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 57.3 127.1 156.1
#2 H And M’s Hit. Lv., top, yield, 1st ov. weakened but okay try on +5 pace.
#6 Fireside Chat. Skip at start. Big wide rally. ADD to watch list.
#7 Play Right. 1st over, picked up cover to 2nd over, game close.

Race 7 Pace CLM $20,000. Av. Str. about 83. (FQ% 24.29; 0 Pace)
Fractions: 27.2 56.2 125.1 152.4
#2 Oriole Point Bubba. Rail, even close.
#4 Two Clouds. Perfect trip, close.
#5 Amber Fella. Outside, good close.
#7 Amillionpennies. 2nd over, good close.
#9 Irak Attack, Leave, top, pressed, weakened.

Race 8 EC Trot. Av. Str. about 80. (FQ% 24.70; +7 Pace)
Fractions: 29.1 58.2 128.2 158.1
#8 I’ll Show You. Wide close.
#9 Spicy Caviar. Wide close.
#10 Custom Tag. 3rd over handily.

Race 9. Pace Clm. $15,000 Av. Str. about 80 (FQ% 24.29; +6 Pace)
Fractions: 27.2 55.4 124.2 152.4
#2 Escape Attack. 3 hole, hard brush to top, weakened.
#5 Cam’s Accord. 1st over, handily.
#6 Seafood Prince. Leave, top, even close.

Race 10 Pace Clm. $15,000 Av. Str. about 83. (FQ% 24.37; +2 Pace)
Fractions: 27.2 56 124.3 152.2
#4 Letters From Home. Leave, top, strong.
#5 Victory Streak. 2nd over. Okay try.
#6 Widow Maker. Inside close.
#7 Tough Company. Leave, 2 hole, stopped.
#10 Answer The Bell. No contention at any time. Poor performance.

[Ray2000]

Good info again Mark, Thanks

I agree 100% with your Trackmaster class comments, a much more reliable number than any individual Speed rating. (Class ratings for a race are derived from the speed ratings of all the entries). Good point on "Letters From Home " on his class.

I'd be interested in your opinion and others, on what size TM class difference (last race compared to today's race) is significant enough to be a meaningful class shift. I use ± 3 for pacers and ± 4 for trotters, but that might be a bit large.

[LottaKash]

In fact, a sharp owner or trainer might have claimed Letters From Home last night for the $15,000, because his BMLP numbers were confirmed out on the track. He is just better than an East-Coast $15,000 horse. At any rate, enough. On to the recap...

Wednesday, Jan. 14
Average First-quarter percentage: 24.47, BPQ cutoff 24.00. Average pace: +3.6
There were 0 BPQ races on this card.



Race 10 Pace Clm. $15,000 Av. Str. about 83. (FQ% 24.37; +2 Pace)
Fractions: 27.2 56 124.3 152.2
#4 Letters From Home. Leave, top, strong.
.


:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:

best,

[markgoldie]

Good info again Mark, Thanks

I agree 100% with your Trackmaster class comments, a much more reliable number than any individual Speed rating. (Class ratings for a race are derived from the speed ratings of all the entries). Good point on "Letters From Home " on his class.

I'd be interested in your opinion and others, on what size TM class difference (last race compared to today's race) is significant enough to be a meaningful class shift. I use ± 3 for pacers and ± 4 for trotters, but that might be a bit large.
Ray:

This is a very, very tricky area of handicapping. For the most part, I am a numbers'-performance handicapper. That's because I am constantly on the lookout for with improved or deteriorating numbers. I think that's important because the betting public tends to hold a general opinion about a horse a bit too long IMO. Also, the fluidity of classes at most tracks makes it possible for a sharp horse to march through several classes quickly and to drop through a number of classes as well. So, I am in the Beyer camp to the extent that if I had better information, I would be strictly a teletimer handicapper and would happily jettison class altogether. But I can't because I don't have that perfect information which would be 1/8 mile splits and 100% accurate timing, which I do not believe exists at this time. That is, I think there are teletimer mistakes which occur more frequently than one might think.

And so, we still need a class rating to at least confirm what we believe the raw numbers are telling us. One way to confirm good or poor peformances is to check out the number of lengths that a horse wins by or loses by. I use a rule of thumb which says that there should be lengthage difference in classes of about the following: 2 lengths on a half-mile track; 3 lengths on a 5/8 mile track; and 3.5 lengths on a mile track. Since the Trackmaster numbers are based on a one-length per number difference, this reasonably confirms what you said: roughly 3 points in difference is a proximate-class differential. Your observation about the larger number being necessary for trotters is due to the fact that there are less classes overall for trotters at most tracks and therefore, there exists a bit of a larger jump between proximate classes.

Class ratings become very important, IMO, when we suspect an abberational teletimer number. More often, this seems to happen when the time is too fast, rather than too slow (which leads me to believe that some sort of "phantom" is tripping the beam prematurely (but that's another whole subject and off point). At any rate, when I see this abberational time, I immediately do two things: (a) I check to see the margin of victory; and (b) I consult the class numbers.

Other than that, -personally I just can't live with th TM raw class number. It's just too inconsistent for my liking. I'm not really sure how they arrive at it and I could find out if it mattered, but it doesn't. The point is that I need a number which accurately indicates the current-form strength of the animals in the given race. As I have said, I depend on an average number, which certainly isn't ideal or perfect but I'm not sure there is a better description of the class strength that I might use. A range might be possible, but that doesn't tell you to which side of the range the majority of the field was skewed.

Since, as I say, i want to depend more on the speed fig than anything else, I will only adjust the adjusted fig number for a portion of the class number. I should say that I started out some years back using an 1-1 adjustment, where I essentially added the fig to the class number for a master number. But I have adjusted the influence of the class rating down twice since then. First to a 50% influence and finally to a 25% influence. So, for example, a master number for me now would consist of the adjusted fig number plus 25% of the class in which it was earned. But, again, the class number becomes much more crucial when I suspect a teletimer error.