markgoldie
01-13-2010, 10:37 AM
Some possible specials tonight from the "To Watch List."
Race 2, #10 Clear The Air. ML 8-1
This horse left well, was shuffled, and closed with late trot in the opening round of The Super Bowl. The main competition should come from the #'s 1,2,3, and 5. However I think the #6 underperformed for some reason in the opening leg and I want to give him another chance, at least on the short end of the ticket. Using #10 as a key horse, I will approach the trifecta in the following manner:
10/1235/12356
1235/10/12356
1235/1235/10 Total punches: 44
Race 5, #2 I Like Strike. ML 10-1
This is one of those situations which is so scary good that they inevitably lose. But whatever, we forge on anyway. I Like Strike left well, was shuffled and closed with sharp late trot in the first leg of The Super Bowl. The horse is clearly in career form, so we have no big past credentials sucking in wagering money. After a non-distinguished campaign in Indiana, he shipped East for a breaking line at Chester. He then went to BMLP where we have a "break-out" qualifier on Dec 16th in which he ripped a big 1.59.3 effort on a slow and frigid oval with a last half in 59 flat and a last quarter of 29.1. He then re-qualified, apparently for tightness purposes but broke. However, he showed no signs of gait problems in last week's event.
If this weren't enough, we have the following three changes since last week: (1) We change barns from Brandon Bates to Peter Kleinhans as well as a change of ownership due to an apparent private sale; (2) We add lasix; and (3) We get Ron Pierce in the bike instead of Brandon Bates.
Now. Here's some advanced thinking from someone who has had some experience in these matters: First, we actually could do without the lasix and Pierce. Why? Because it only draws money and we have already seen that a clean trip could beat this group, with Bates and without the lasix. But even worse is the barn change. Why? Because when we seek to bet serious money, the last thing we want is CHANGE. For example, it is not unusual to see the new stable change the shoeing on the horse, thinking they are making some sort of improvement, when in fact it results in a break. Same with peripheral equipment. Change bits, add a head pole, take one off, throw on a murphy blind, change the bridle or boots and all the rest. You get the picture. We don't need a new trainer tinkering with our good thing.
So that's the scenario. I have no doubt that this horse will draw money. The 10-1 ML is a joke. The bettors aren't as blind as the linesmaker. And so it will boil down to a matter of value. We have two nice, in-form animals in here in #6 Scotch And Caviar and #7 POW. We might use I Like Strike up and back with them in the exacta and with the #'s 1,3,9, and 10 in the third spot in the trifectas. For ex.: 2/6,7/1,3,6,7,9,10 and 6,7/2/1,3,6,7,9,10
Race 7, #2 Oriole Point Bubba was shuffled in his last and closed well. He should represent value in here and I will use him as a key in the superfecta with the in-form #4 and #9 as major players. Also, the #5 deserves attention based on the driver switch and the attempts to close on the super-speed biased oval at Dover. I don't think the #2 is obviously the best in here, just that he represents good value at what should be a price. If he isn't a nice price, I will have no problem passing on him.
Race 9 #2 Escape Attack. This may be the best overall scenario of the card. Escape Attack left in a near- breaking-point quarter in his last race, was shuffled and then closed sharply. Here, we have the same connections, so we don't have to worry about random changes. The only question is what price do we get??
At any rate, he is a PRIME candidate as a superfecta key horse and since the rest of the field is an enigma, I would use a VERY large spread of contenders. You don't want to miss the number if the #2 is any kind of a price. The #'s 4, 5, and 9 should draw the betting action.
That's it. GL Mark
Race 2, #10 Clear The Air. ML 8-1
This horse left well, was shuffled, and closed with late trot in the opening round of The Super Bowl. The main competition should come from the #'s 1,2,3, and 5. However I think the #6 underperformed for some reason in the opening leg and I want to give him another chance, at least on the short end of the ticket. Using #10 as a key horse, I will approach the trifecta in the following manner:
10/1235/12356
1235/10/12356
1235/1235/10 Total punches: 44
Race 5, #2 I Like Strike. ML 10-1
This is one of those situations which is so scary good that they inevitably lose. But whatever, we forge on anyway. I Like Strike left well, was shuffled and closed with sharp late trot in the first leg of The Super Bowl. The horse is clearly in career form, so we have no big past credentials sucking in wagering money. After a non-distinguished campaign in Indiana, he shipped East for a breaking line at Chester. He then went to BMLP where we have a "break-out" qualifier on Dec 16th in which he ripped a big 1.59.3 effort on a slow and frigid oval with a last half in 59 flat and a last quarter of 29.1. He then re-qualified, apparently for tightness purposes but broke. However, he showed no signs of gait problems in last week's event.
If this weren't enough, we have the following three changes since last week: (1) We change barns from Brandon Bates to Peter Kleinhans as well as a change of ownership due to an apparent private sale; (2) We add lasix; and (3) We get Ron Pierce in the bike instead of Brandon Bates.
Now. Here's some advanced thinking from someone who has had some experience in these matters: First, we actually could do without the lasix and Pierce. Why? Because it only draws money and we have already seen that a clean trip could beat this group, with Bates and without the lasix. But even worse is the barn change. Why? Because when we seek to bet serious money, the last thing we want is CHANGE. For example, it is not unusual to see the new stable change the shoeing on the horse, thinking they are making some sort of improvement, when in fact it results in a break. Same with peripheral equipment. Change bits, add a head pole, take one off, throw on a murphy blind, change the bridle or boots and all the rest. You get the picture. We don't need a new trainer tinkering with our good thing.
So that's the scenario. I have no doubt that this horse will draw money. The 10-1 ML is a joke. The bettors aren't as blind as the linesmaker. And so it will boil down to a matter of value. We have two nice, in-form animals in here in #6 Scotch And Caviar and #7 POW. We might use I Like Strike up and back with them in the exacta and with the #'s 1,3,9, and 10 in the third spot in the trifectas. For ex.: 2/6,7/1,3,6,7,9,10 and 6,7/2/1,3,6,7,9,10
Race 7, #2 Oriole Point Bubba was shuffled in his last and closed well. He should represent value in here and I will use him as a key in the superfecta with the in-form #4 and #9 as major players. Also, the #5 deserves attention based on the driver switch and the attempts to close on the super-speed biased oval at Dover. I don't think the #2 is obviously the best in here, just that he represents good value at what should be a price. If he isn't a nice price, I will have no problem passing on him.
Race 9 #2 Escape Attack. This may be the best overall scenario of the card. Escape Attack left in a near- breaking-point quarter in his last race, was shuffled and then closed sharply. Here, we have the same connections, so we don't have to worry about random changes. The only question is what price do we get??
At any rate, he is a PRIME candidate as a superfecta key horse and since the rest of the field is an enigma, I would use a VERY large spread of contenders. You don't want to miss the number if the #2 is any kind of a price. The #'s 4, 5, and 9 should draw the betting action.
That's it. GL Mark