Bill Olmsted Speed & Pace figures

[bedford35]

Does anyone here have any comments regarding Bill Olmsted's Speed & Pace figure service? I was considering signing up for them. Actually I'm not entirely sure that he is still doing them, I have been on his mailing list for years but have not seen anything about the figures for awhile. I have heard they are quite good and are in the Quirin style which I prefer. Any information and comments would be appreciated. Thanks.

bedford35

[andicap]

I have a related question. Olmstead only gives you 2nd call and final time. I find first call to be invaluable to my pace formulas. The race can be won or lost on the first call and the turn and having 1st and 2nd call figs give you both.
Not sure how you can do optimal pace 'capping without turn time or first call. Not saying its impossible, but just asking the question.

[takeout]

A friend and I used them for a while in MD the first time that he was making them. It was around '90, I think. I'm not really a numbers guy but they had their moments. One instance that I remember was a shipper from what we considered a lesser track that had a huge pace #. We didn't know whether to trust it or not and after some agonizing we decided not to bet it. The horse wired the field at about 22-1, as I dimly recall.

I think they're pretty much like anything else. If the big pace or final # is fairly obvious to everyone, then it's generally not going to have much value.

I'm wondering how he makes all those numbers himself, with TLC, like he advertises. Seems like an awfully tall order. How many tracks do each of the Beyer guys handle? And they're only making finals.

I finally quit using them, not because they weren't a useful tool, but because whenever I start to fool around with #s I begin to suffer from tunnel vision and often can't see the forest for the trees. IMO, #s are one small part of a very big game. My friend, who loves to approach the game from a #s perspective, is now concocting some kind of his own #s brew.

[Rick Ransom]

I'm a numbers guy but I've always thought there some real weaknesses in anyone's numbers that cause some glaring inconsistencies from time to time. For instance, they might update their pars and make today's numbers inconsistent with last month's. Or the track you're playing might have been resurfaced but they're still comparing it to other tracks based on old information. And with some of them like Beyers, you have different people tweaking them different ways subjectively. With most, they just don't tell you enough about how they're derived and what there weaknesses might be. The only thing you can do is test them out over at least a year and see how they do. It's probably best not to overemphasize small differences though, since all of them tend to be a little "fuzzy".

[Larry Hamilton]

I have a placard on my wall that says:

Caution: you are trying measure with a micrometer what was marked with a crayon and cut with a chain saw! (author unk)

[andicap]

The thing about Olmstead that I know is that he really emphasizes early speed in his own picks.

[Rick Ransom]

Larry,

Great quotation. How true it is. I'll have to hang that on my wall too.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Rick Ransom
Larry,

Great quotation. How true it is. I'll have to hang that on my wall too.

On my wall, I have a framed exacta ticket that shows a part wheel of

4 with 1,2,3,55,6,8 No 7!

The 7 of course, ran second at 35-1 and keyed a $200+ exacta. My caption reads, "Thou shalt not part wheel out only one horse!"

Tom