markgoldie
01-08-2010, 01:44 PM
Note: Cutting down on comments to ones that were notable for some reason.
Also, the class-strengths are still a bit nebulous since we have very few repeat performances over the oval. Once they become more common, we can zero in on a more accurate class rating for those who incorporate a class factor into their handicapping.
Notice the wide disparity of pace on this card. Seems like the drivers were either out to kiil each other or were falling asleep at the wheel. Also, if you look at the charts, you will get a feel for the overwhelming power of pace on race finishes. Very few horses can fight against a very slow pace (by closing) or a very fast pace (by cutting a mile or vying for the early lead) and subsequently hang on. In other words, PACE IS KING. This isn't Monti or NFLD where it's nearly impossible to over-drive a horse.
Horses I am adding to my "To Watch List" are so noted.
Thursday, Jan. 7, 2010
Average First-Quarter Percentage: 24.68; Average Pace +1.45
BPQ 24.10 BPQ Race: 6th
Race 1 EC Mares Average strength about 75 (FQ% 24.64; -8 Pace)
Fractions: 28 57.3 125.1 153.3
Race 2 Trot NW $10,000 Average strength about 86 (FQ% 24.44; +11 Pace)
Fractions: 28.2 57 126.3 156.1
Race 3 EC Mares. Average strength about 71 (FQ% 24.65; +2 Pace)
Fractions: 28.3 57.4 127.3 156
#2 Auroring Doll. Was blocked in str, but had perfect trip to that point.
#3 TC’s Delight. 1st over gamely but slow division.
#9 Lionistic. 2nd over in live flow. No exc.
Race 4 EC Mares. Average strength about 73 (FQ% 24.69; -13 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 58.2 126.2 154.1
#10 Laughandbehappy. Sole closer into fast last half. Very good effort.
Race 5 Trot $20,000 Claiming. Average strength about 85 (FQ% 24.27; +11 Pace)
Fractions: 28.2 57.2 127.2 157
Race 6 EC Mares. Average strength about 76 (FQ% 23.50; +8 Pace)
Fractions: 26.4 56.1 124.4 154
#1 The Sweet Dion. BPQ qualifier. ADD to watch list.
#5 Amarillo Sky. Left into hot Q and closed inside/outside.
#6 Regal Wish. Held well after 1st over into hot pace.
Race 7 Pace NW 3 PM. Average strength about 78 (FQ% 24.60; -5 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 57.4 126.3 154.3
Race 8 Trot NW $10,000. Average strength about 90 (FQ% 24.22; -8 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 59 127.4 156.2
#2 Big Z Credit. Inside, shuffled, some close.
#9 Trotslikethewind. Outside in bad flow and still closed some. ADD to watch list.
Race 9 Pace NW $6,000. Average strength about 82 (FQ% 27.91; -2 Pace)
Fractions: 28 56.2 124.4 152.2
#10 Jovial Joker. Stacked up in bad outer flow, 3 wide and closed okay. ADD to watch.
Race 10 Pace F&M Clm. $30,000 Average strength about 80 (FQ% 24.24; +15 Pace)
Fractions: 27.2 55 124.1 153
#9 Life’s A Trip. Good speed effort. CLAIMED.
#3 Ali Rush. Bad flow. Good close but into soft last half.
#2 Lightning Dragon. 1st Q and 1st half too fast. Excuse.
Race 11 Pace NW $6,000. Average strength about 80 (FQ% 24.33; +5 Pace)
Fractions: 27.3 56.1 124.4 153.2
Poor quality event in which all the speed types died and the closers prevailed. First quarter was on the fast side as well as the pace, but not excessive.
Also, the class-strengths are still a bit nebulous since we have very few repeat performances over the oval. Once they become more common, we can zero in on a more accurate class rating for those who incorporate a class factor into their handicapping.
Notice the wide disparity of pace on this card. Seems like the drivers were either out to kiil each other or were falling asleep at the wheel. Also, if you look at the charts, you will get a feel for the overwhelming power of pace on race finishes. Very few horses can fight against a very slow pace (by closing) or a very fast pace (by cutting a mile or vying for the early lead) and subsequently hang on. In other words, PACE IS KING. This isn't Monti or NFLD where it's nearly impossible to over-drive a horse.
Horses I am adding to my "To Watch List" are so noted.
Thursday, Jan. 7, 2010
Average First-Quarter Percentage: 24.68; Average Pace +1.45
BPQ 24.10 BPQ Race: 6th
Race 1 EC Mares Average strength about 75 (FQ% 24.64; -8 Pace)
Fractions: 28 57.3 125.1 153.3
Race 2 Trot NW $10,000 Average strength about 86 (FQ% 24.44; +11 Pace)
Fractions: 28.2 57 126.3 156.1
Race 3 EC Mares. Average strength about 71 (FQ% 24.65; +2 Pace)
Fractions: 28.3 57.4 127.3 156
#2 Auroring Doll. Was blocked in str, but had perfect trip to that point.
#3 TC’s Delight. 1st over gamely but slow division.
#9 Lionistic. 2nd over in live flow. No exc.
Race 4 EC Mares. Average strength about 73 (FQ% 24.69; -13 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 58.2 126.2 154.1
#10 Laughandbehappy. Sole closer into fast last half. Very good effort.
Race 5 Trot $20,000 Claiming. Average strength about 85 (FQ% 24.27; +11 Pace)
Fractions: 28.2 57.2 127.2 157
Race 6 EC Mares. Average strength about 76 (FQ% 23.50; +8 Pace)
Fractions: 26.4 56.1 124.4 154
#1 The Sweet Dion. BPQ qualifier. ADD to watch list.
#5 Amarillo Sky. Left into hot Q and closed inside/outside.
#6 Regal Wish. Held well after 1st over into hot pace.
Race 7 Pace NW 3 PM. Average strength about 78 (FQ% 24.60; -5 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 57.4 126.3 154.3
Race 8 Trot NW $10,000. Average strength about 90 (FQ% 24.22; -8 Pace)
Fractions: 28.1 59 127.4 156.2
#2 Big Z Credit. Inside, shuffled, some close.
#9 Trotslikethewind. Outside in bad flow and still closed some. ADD to watch list.
Race 9 Pace NW $6,000. Average strength about 82 (FQ% 27.91; -2 Pace)
Fractions: 28 56.2 124.4 152.2
#10 Jovial Joker. Stacked up in bad outer flow, 3 wide and closed okay. ADD to watch.
Race 10 Pace F&M Clm. $30,000 Average strength about 80 (FQ% 24.24; +15 Pace)
Fractions: 27.2 55 124.1 153
#9 Life’s A Trip. Good speed effort. CLAIMED.
#3 Ali Rush. Bad flow. Good close but into soft last half.
#2 Lightning Dragon. 1st Q and 1st half too fast. Excuse.
Race 11 Pace NW $6,000. Average strength about 80 (FQ% 24.33; +5 Pace)
Fractions: 27.3 56.1 124.4 153.2
Poor quality event in which all the speed types died and the closers prevailed. First quarter was on the fast side as well as the pace, but not excessive.