Finding The Best Claiming Trainers

[VetScratch]

Most handicappers have fantasized about becoming an owner by claiming a horse. Picking the right trainer is always part of this ownership fantasy. Is there a source of truly meaningful information for handicappers that want to find the best claiming barns? By this, I mean identifying the trainers who are the very best claiming specialists.

A modern handicapper might contemplate using computer technology to identify and statistically rank good claiming trainers.

Such a method of evaluation would ideally examine a complete North American database, spanning five or more years, and would employ appropriate statistical techniques for analyzing non-uniform population samples.

Reasonable sophistication in this endeavor would require database software that tracks all claims and measures earnings per day for periods of ownership after each claim (i.e., from the date of each claim through a subsequent claim, a horse's most recent race, or an elapsed period of absence that would signify the end of a horse's racing career). Ultimate sophistication would also attempt to calculate total cost of ownerhip by combining claiming prices with demographically indexed cost estimates for daily horse maintenance. This level of sophistication could produce ROC (Return On Claiming) ratings for trainers in a manner similar to the same way handicappers measure their own ROI (Return On Investment).

If such a capability exists, I haven't heard about it, so post a reply if you know of a database service or software product that approaches this level of sophistication.

BTW, I don't mean the much less sophisticated stats and other stuff that we all know about for handicapping individual races.

[GameTheory]

I could get all the required info out of my database in terms of earnings. I'm sure many others around here could as well. You'd have to estimate cost of care.

I had a wacky idea for rating trainers. Specifically, to rate how well they are placing their horses. Don't know if there is anything to it since I haven't tried it, but I'll throw it out there.

First, take your favorite brand of speed figures (any distance & surface normalized figure will do -- Beyer, BRIS, etc) and assign a dollar amount that each figure is "worth". For instance, go through your database and find all the performances where a horse earned an 80. Now take the earnings of that horse FOR THAT RACE ONLY -- how much did the horse earn for that one performance running an 80? In this way find the "average amount earned running an 80". So you do this for all possible speed figure values, so now you've got an earnings chart (per race) to match up with the speed figures. We know what each figure is worth in dollars, on average.

So now, to rate a trainer, add up all the money his horses have earned under his care, and compare that to the amount they "should have earned" according to their speed figures. If they are earning above average, this is an efficient trainer getting the most from the potential of his horses -- he is putting them where they can make money. If below average, this trainer is putting his horses over their head, and could be doing better.

What do you think?

[VetScratch]

I like your idea! Where I see a problem is the speed rating range between pars for highest-priced claiming and maybe stakes at G-III or less. Using BRIS ratings as an example, I would guess that speed figures between 96 and 104 would earn purse money in many such races. At the same time, significant variances exist in the purses for this span of race classes and also in the number of races in each class level. Seems like "pure" average earnings in this speed range could be quite deceiving.

[GameTheory]

Yeah, probably. Most of my wacky ideas that sound good don't actually work. Maybe you could make a linear equation relating speed figures to earnings (possibly leaving out certain types of very high-class races that skew things), and then examine the trainer incrementally by ranges of speed figures.

[Larry Hamilton]

How are you going to get how much the horse made each race out of the data base?

[GameTheory]

In my case, I get my data from the charts and it gives the breakdown for each placing in every race -- so I have a field for that. If all you knew were total earnings, you'd have to estimate based on the percentages each track pays. Win, place, & show are pretty standard...

[VetScratch]

GameTheory:

I probably should have posed my question by explicitly designating a chart-based database (I just assumed that point was obvious). Even for handicapping purposes alone, any database without results leaves a lot to be desired.

From official result charts, you are probably able to compile precise earnings per race, including KTBF money and similar incentives that would be hard to estimate from purse amounts and flash results.

[GameTheory]

Yeah, I use the full result charts so I can get the exact amounts. Whether that info is available if you buy result datafiles I don't know. One of these days I'll try it out and see if there is anything to it...

[hurrikane]

Interesting idea game. I'm guessing you would have to equalize the earnings for the slot tracks and state bred races so as not to skew the results.

Also, many of the top claiming barn are top barns because they have a owner with deep pockets buying a lot of horses. Lake, Caupano, Shuman..etc. that doesn't necessarily make them the best claiming trainer but that is likely what the data will show.

[VetScratch]

Hurrikane,

Also, many of the top claiming barn are top barns because they have a owner with deep pockets buying a lot of horses. Lake, Caupano, Shuman..etc. that doesn't necessarily make them the best claiming trainer but that is likely what the data will show.

The purpose is not to find who makes a lot of claims or spends the most money, but to measure financial results for claims, just like ROI for handicappers. This would indicate which barns are making the best claims, getting good performances after claims, and are shrewd about when and how to lose horses.

[ranchwest]

Hurricane,

I think you're on to something there, I had some similar thoughts.

If you get some great statistics on a trainer, what happens if you take out the stats on some of his biggest clients (owners)? Does having the money for optimal care make him the best trainer? Will the trainer put effort into someone else's horse(s) or even give a flip?

Does the trainer win when he wants to win? That may not always be easy to quantify. I used to know of some owners who would only show up when their horse was going to win. Obviously the trainer knew when to invite them.

Are you looking to really get into the claiming game or are you wanting to get a horse or two and keep them (hopefully healthy and winning)? Some trainers may have good stats because they get a horse, use it up with quick scores and then unload it as it is going bad, which might work for some owners and not others.

Is the trainer a hot head who will work better with some owners than others?

Is the owner a hot head? I had a friend who smarted off to a trainer and the trainer dropped his horse from a 34K race to a 25K race, got him claimed, plus tanked him up on water to make sure he lost so the owner wouldn't get any money.

[Shacopate]

Game Theory,

or ERASERHEAD as your pic suggests. That is a damn good approach. If you tweak it a little with track class and purse adjustments, I think you'll be onto something fierce.

Vet Scratch,

An idea that we are considering right now is to grab a quality "drop-down" from a trainer that likes to rack up wins for his owner. A certain fellow in Illinois has caught my attention, also one in FL.

[VetScratch]

Shacopate,

When you are scanning the nation (or several circuits) for a good claim, I assume you are checking the claiming eligibility policies at the various tracks.

We used to claim a lot in Florida when you either had to have a horse on the grounds or have previously run a horse at the meet in order to make a straightforward claim. From what I've read, GP and others may have tightened this rule to discourage Gill & Shuman. I think GP now requires a horse on the grounds, which means, simply by denying stalls, they can prevent any outfit from making a claim.

In the wake of the Gill controversy, you better keep up to date with the policies at any track that you are monitoring for a claim.

As an alternative, you may already have the necessary connections to make a claim in less than a straightforward manner. I understaand that Stronach uses dozens of trainers throughout the country to claim mares as broodmare prospects. Eventually, after the claim, they end up on one of Stronach's farms and the trainers earn something for their services.

[Shacopate]

Good point.

Would you happen to know the requirements for Arlington Park?

[VetScratch]

Shacopate,

We used to run at AP but never had occasion to check the rules because we got stalls and ran there regularly.

Show Me The Wire probably knows the current rules for AP. You might send him a private message on this board.

Otherwise. call the AP Racing Office, and if you get connected to a helpful official, you need to find out the qualifications for both the trainer and owner in order to drop a claim slip.

To qualify as an owner, you would need to get licensed in Illinois, open a horseman's account, and get the licensed stamped by AP before you can claim in your own name. Obviously, collected funds must be on deposit in an HGCA horseman's account before a claim, but I don't "absolutely" know the rest of the details for AP at this moment.

The trainer qualifications may be stickier. Since your trainer is not currently licensed and running at AP, you may have to get a trainer who is running at AP to make the claim for you. This can be the tricky part, especially if you intend to take the horse home to the farm and then run him elsewhere with your own trainer. I would be surprised if simply licensing yourself and your trainer in Illinois will do the trick.

You may also find out that you are in jail until the end of the AP meet (i.e., that you can't run the claimed horse elsewhere until the AP meet ends or a stated period of time elapses). If this is the case, most owners in your situation let the AP trainer who makes the claim continue to run the horse until the meet is over. You might consider NOT even divulging your long term plans to the AP trainer that makes the claim!

We occasionally lost horses on various circuits that would disappear like a puff of smoke after being claimed for remote interests, but I never checked how many cooperating local connections were needed to pull this off. Like owning a boat, your happiest day is often the date of sale! Or maybe the best analogy is claiming is like a takeoff while getting-claimed-from is like a landing! :D

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by Shacopate
Good point.

Would you happen to know the requirements for Arlington Park?

Even though I was not directly asked. In Illinois fyi you may not have an owners license unless you own a horse and you may not own a horse without having an owners license. A nice catch -22.

If you do claim a horse you are in jail and must run solely at the AP meet, unless you get permission from the stewards. This rule is pretty universal for most circuits. I believe Florida is even tougher, something about running in the State for a period of time.

Being stuck at a meet is one of the pitfalls, someone new to the business could stumble into.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[VetScratch]

Show Me The Wire,
In Illinois fyi you may not have an owners license unless you own a horse and you may not own a horse without having an owners license. A nice catch -22.

Didn't you mean to say you cannot have an owner's racing license unless you own a horse. Anyone can privately buy a Thoroughbred and choose not to race it.

Some mares are sold as breeding prospects by owners who do not want to get involved in the breeding business. Some other Thoroughbreds are sold for a modest price at the end of their racing careers to be trained as a jumper, pony, or saddle horse.

On many circuits that have a Catch-22 for claiming, new owners strike a deal with a trainer to claim a horse (with their money) but in the name of the trainer. After the claim, the horse is transferred to the new owner who then applies for an owner's racing license. I would think this takes place in Illinois to get around the Catch-22 that you described. Otherwise, the ITBOF is wasting a lot of money on their events and promotions to attract new owners.

[Show Me the Wire]

Vetscratch:

I typed what I meant, the question was about claiming and racing a horse and that is the law in Illinois. In Illinois if you apply for a owner's license and you do not own a race horse elgible for racing at the time you apply, you receicve the right to claim at the specific meet and/or to purchase a race horse privately.

If you do not claim a horse or buy a horse privately that is elgible to race you will not receive an owner's license (technically, buying a race horse or any percent of a race horse without having a valid owner's license is prohibited). Additionally, in Illinois, and most other jurisdictions, there are time restrictions that must be met before you can transfer ownership of a claimed horse through a private sale.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[VetScratch]

Show Me The Wire:
Buying a race horse or any percent of a race horse without having a valid owner's license is prohibited

This is simply NOT true. What is prohibited is racing a horse that is not 100% owned by interests who are licensed to race.

We did, and others who currently race there still do, privately sell race horses to individuals who are not licensed to race. When this happens, the Racing Office proffers the NJC papers when the horse leaves the grounds, and the NJC gladly processes the change of ownership (otherwise, the sellers would retain an interest in the progeny of mares who become broodmares).

There are also several other scenarios where horses are sold to owners who are not licensed to race. The NJC does not require proof of any owner's racing license in order to process a change of ownership.

There are numerous Thoroughbreds in Illinois that are legally owned by individuals who are not licensed to race their horses.

You originally said:
you may not have an owners license unless you own a horse and you may not own a horse without having an owners license
In your next post, you modified this position, but still got it wrong.

[Show Me the Wire]

VetScratch:

I am saying what you are saying. My statement is correct in context. The context is buying or claiming a horse with the intent to race. It is prohibited by IL. State law to purchase a race horse or interest in a race horse with the intent to race it without a thoroughbred owners license or permission slip to claim or buy a thoroughbred to race.


Of course, if you do not intend to race a horse you do not need a thoroughbred owners license, just like I would not need a dog racing owners license if I did not intend to race the dog.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[VetScratch]

Show Me The Wire,

Let's shake hands in complete agreement and recognize that we achieved something together. After all of our convoluted and detailed nitpicking, you will not soon have to worry about Shacopate raiding Illinois to claim your horses! :D :D :D :D :D :D :D