markgoldie
01-06-2010, 06:01 PM
This is another tip from the playbook of master players. It revolves around a common situation, one that we have all seen.
Consider a scenario where you have handicapped a race at your favorite track (or at one where you are very familiar) and as post time approaches, you notice an odds' anomaly in which you feel a horse with a reasonable chance of winning is somehow being overlooked by the public.
I realize that this scenario as depicted is rather vague, so to sharpen it up a bit, let's say that a horse you feel has at least a 20% chance of winning is going off at 12-1 or better. Another way of looking at it might be that you feel the horse is no worse than 3rd best in the field but is being sent off at as 6th choice or worse.
In any event, you see CLEAR value in the price offered. This is not a horse that you have ben waiting for or expecting to play. Instead, it's something that just cropped up, so to speak, due to the anomalous betting patterns of this event.
How do we approach wagering in such an event? Well, first off, we must resolve to indeed make a bet, no matter our pre-conceived dislike for the event or intention to pass the race. In other words, this race is a MUST PLAY.
Next, HOW do we play? Here, some basic theory is important. Overlays in the win hole are nice, but all theory tells us that the overlay in the gimmick pools will be even LARGER. So (provided we have the capital and we should if we are serious players), we want to play the horse in the gimmicks and the larger the gimmick the better. Personally, I prefer superfectas but trifectas are also fine and a pick 3 or 4 is possible as well (naturally this would be the opening leg since the "trigger" to play the horse comes from the offered odds and we can't know that ahead of time).
We also know from theory that if this horse is truly overlaid, the possibility of significant OTHER overlays in the race are very, very slim. In fact, it is overwhelmingly probable that all the other horses, particularly the contenders, are UNDERLAYS.
This is crucial for understanding HOW to play the horse in the gimmicks. Since everything else is an underlay, WE DO NOT WANT ANY TICKETS WHATSOEVER IN WHICH OUR HORSE IS NOT PRESENT. This is crucial to understand (hence the bold print) :) .
For example, we DO NOT want to construct a pyramid partial wheel in which our horse is not present in some combinations. Nor do we want to play a box of contenders including our horse, since some of the boxes do not contain our preferred animal. Instead, play key horse wheels or partial wheels in which our value horse is the key. We may play him as a second-place key, or a third or fourth-place key, but he is always the key horse.
For those who do not understand what I'm saying here, let me give an example. Let's consider a simple trifecta play. Our horse is the #1. Now...
DO NOT PLAY: 123/1234/12345
Why not? Because our #1 horse does not appear in many of these punches.
INSTEAD PLAY: 1/234/2345 and 23/1/2345 and 23/234/1
Note: This is a strict construction of 3 key horse partial wheels, using the #1 as the key, based on the logic of the top partial wheel (123/1234/12345). Notice that the #4 does not appear in the top spot in our key-horse wheels. That's because he wasn't on top in the master part wheel. Also note that the #5 does not appear at all in our final key-horse wheel (23/234/1) That's because he only appears in the third spot in the master part wheel and he can't finish third here because our key horse (#1) is occupying that spot.
Notice that the cost of the master part wheel in which our key #1 horse is only a participant among others, costs $27 for a $1 punch and our key-horse part wheels cost only $19. So you say, what's the big deal? Well, I'll tell you what the big deal is. First, the extra $8 in punches are all UNDERLAID punches which are all but guaranteed to lose us money in the long run. Second, that measley $8 is a 42% EXPANSION of the bet. Put in those terms, the 8 bucks isn't so small and if you are playing for the long run, I can tell you it's HUGE in fact.
Thirdly, and this is crucial, you must get through your mind the following: You are only interested and playing the event because of the overlaid horse and YOU DON'T EVEN WANT TO CASH A TICKET ON THIS RACE THAT DOESN'T HAVE HIM ON IT. This last concept is counterintuitive and is therefore difficult to grasp. It can only be understood when you take the widest possible view of playing the game and I submit that this is where the value is gained. The short-term thinkers are mostly losers. The long-term thinkers have a good shot to prevail.
Now. One final element to all of this, and this is another toughie: MAKE THESE SOME OF YOUR BIGGEST WAGERS and not your throw-away small ones. Here again, this takes a leap of faith into the long run and the law of averages. I'm not saying to cut down on your major angle plays. What I am saying is always be ready to pounce when the opportunity arises.
As always, GL
Mark
Consider a scenario where you have handicapped a race at your favorite track (or at one where you are very familiar) and as post time approaches, you notice an odds' anomaly in which you feel a horse with a reasonable chance of winning is somehow being overlooked by the public.
I realize that this scenario as depicted is rather vague, so to sharpen it up a bit, let's say that a horse you feel has at least a 20% chance of winning is going off at 12-1 or better. Another way of looking at it might be that you feel the horse is no worse than 3rd best in the field but is being sent off at as 6th choice or worse.
In any event, you see CLEAR value in the price offered. This is not a horse that you have ben waiting for or expecting to play. Instead, it's something that just cropped up, so to speak, due to the anomalous betting patterns of this event.
How do we approach wagering in such an event? Well, first off, we must resolve to indeed make a bet, no matter our pre-conceived dislike for the event or intention to pass the race. In other words, this race is a MUST PLAY.
Next, HOW do we play? Here, some basic theory is important. Overlays in the win hole are nice, but all theory tells us that the overlay in the gimmick pools will be even LARGER. So (provided we have the capital and we should if we are serious players), we want to play the horse in the gimmicks and the larger the gimmick the better. Personally, I prefer superfectas but trifectas are also fine and a pick 3 or 4 is possible as well (naturally this would be the opening leg since the "trigger" to play the horse comes from the offered odds and we can't know that ahead of time).
We also know from theory that if this horse is truly overlaid, the possibility of significant OTHER overlays in the race are very, very slim. In fact, it is overwhelmingly probable that all the other horses, particularly the contenders, are UNDERLAYS.
This is crucial for understanding HOW to play the horse in the gimmicks. Since everything else is an underlay, WE DO NOT WANT ANY TICKETS WHATSOEVER IN WHICH OUR HORSE IS NOT PRESENT. This is crucial to understand (hence the bold print) :) .
For example, we DO NOT want to construct a pyramid partial wheel in which our horse is not present in some combinations. Nor do we want to play a box of contenders including our horse, since some of the boxes do not contain our preferred animal. Instead, play key horse wheels or partial wheels in which our value horse is the key. We may play him as a second-place key, or a third or fourth-place key, but he is always the key horse.
For those who do not understand what I'm saying here, let me give an example. Let's consider a simple trifecta play. Our horse is the #1. Now...
DO NOT PLAY: 123/1234/12345
Why not? Because our #1 horse does not appear in many of these punches.
INSTEAD PLAY: 1/234/2345 and 23/1/2345 and 23/234/1
Note: This is a strict construction of 3 key horse partial wheels, using the #1 as the key, based on the logic of the top partial wheel (123/1234/12345). Notice that the #4 does not appear in the top spot in our key-horse wheels. That's because he wasn't on top in the master part wheel. Also note that the #5 does not appear at all in our final key-horse wheel (23/234/1) That's because he only appears in the third spot in the master part wheel and he can't finish third here because our key horse (#1) is occupying that spot.
Notice that the cost of the master part wheel in which our key #1 horse is only a participant among others, costs $27 for a $1 punch and our key-horse part wheels cost only $19. So you say, what's the big deal? Well, I'll tell you what the big deal is. First, the extra $8 in punches are all UNDERLAID punches which are all but guaranteed to lose us money in the long run. Second, that measley $8 is a 42% EXPANSION of the bet. Put in those terms, the 8 bucks isn't so small and if you are playing for the long run, I can tell you it's HUGE in fact.
Thirdly, and this is crucial, you must get through your mind the following: You are only interested and playing the event because of the overlaid horse and YOU DON'T EVEN WANT TO CASH A TICKET ON THIS RACE THAT DOESN'T HAVE HIM ON IT. This last concept is counterintuitive and is therefore difficult to grasp. It can only be understood when you take the widest possible view of playing the game and I submit that this is where the value is gained. The short-term thinkers are mostly losers. The long-term thinkers have a good shot to prevail.
Now. One final element to all of this, and this is another toughie: MAKE THESE SOME OF YOUR BIGGEST WAGERS and not your throw-away small ones. Here again, this takes a leap of faith into the long run and the law of averages. I'm not saying to cut down on your major angle plays. What I am saying is always be ready to pounce when the opportunity arises.
As always, GL
Mark