"Big M" contest picks wed. 1/6

[fmolf]

I guess everyone is waiting till 6:30 to post their picks for tonight!...looks like game on!....I am what would be considered dead money!..so here are mine anyway:

R5- :1:-beliefs in town

R6- :4:-super lover

R10- :2:-scotch and caviar(neither of which i like)

[melman]

fmolf---Like both your picks in races 5 and 6 but in race 10 to me Top Chef looks VERY hard to beat.

[fmolf]

fmolf---Like both your picks in races 5 and 6 but in race 10 to me Top Chef looks VERY hard to beat.
maybe i am learning ..i am an experienced t bred guy who is dabbling in harness via this contest.Just learning about the conditions and the qua. races....some good angles...which horse drivers choose,barn changes,class drops and the importance of posts ...i must admit i like the tbreds better but this is still fun!.....in race 10 I will play a $2 exacta then 3-2 and 2-3 for a buck.I do not know enough to wager serious money from my bankroll so i have set up a separate bankroll for harness....
Good luck to all and enjoy the races!

[jimnancy]

I will post my picks. I dont spend alot of time handicaping when you are dealing with nw trots. Thats what we will have to deal with during the week, weekends will be better. Bombs away


5th :6: Moody's Boy Joel
6th :5: MM's A Player
10th :7: Fireside Chat

opps no bombs except for the last

[fmolf]

the :7: was my original pick in this race but i was swayed to the :2: by the fact that all his races have been at the big m so being stabled their and working their may give him an edge.I hope he is a long price.

[Augie16]

Mine are kind of chalky tonight.

Race 5 :7:
Race 6 :9:
Race 10 :3:

Good luck to all.

[botster]

5th 5 CINEMA STAR logical longshot play here for me.
6th 9 SOS RESPECT Ryder trainee #1.
10th 9 MYSTIC RIVER Ryder trainee #2.

[markgoldie]

I'm Not playing the contest but for the heck of it I'll throw in 3 plays:

Race 2 :6:

Race 3 :10:

Race 5 :3:

[Tom-Oh]

I went for all long shot opportunities tonight...

R5 - :4: CINEMA STAR

R6 - :4: SUPER LOVER

R10 - :6: SIR

[fmolf]

5th 5 CINEMA STAR logical longshot play here for me.
6th 9 SOS RESPECT Ryder trainee #1.
10th 9 MYSTIC RIVER Ryder trainee #2.
I almost chose cinema star as well 1st lasix as a longshot play but with faster horses on both sides i feel he may be stuck in the pack.......I know my jargon is wrong...everyone knows what i mean..!I would welcome any critic of my pics as this is a good learning experience for me.they are as follows:

5- :1:
6- :4:
10- :2:
hope were right about the 4 in the 6th!Back to back good finishes..may not be such a longshot either!

[Tom-Oh]

I almost chose cinema star as well 1st lasix as a longshot play but with faster horses on both sides i feel he may be stuck in the pack.......I know my jargon is wrong...everyone knows what i mean..!I would welcome any critic of my pics as this is a good learning experience for me.they are as follows:

5- :1:
6- :4:
10- :2:
hope were right about the 4 in the 6th!Back to back good finishes..may not be such a longshot either!

The :4: in R6 looks really good to me. I picked him aswell. His last 2 finishes were strong, rallying for the finish and closing nicely. The only thing I see that could be a potential downer for this horse is the move from Yonkers to the Big M. From a 1/2 mile track to a 1. We'll really see what this horse can do when they hit the stretch. I think it could go either way completely, either he closes once again and loves the longer stretch, or burns out midway through it and finished out of the money. We'll see... I think it's a complete coin toss on what he'll do with this stretch...

And I hope we see over 8-1... I picked him as a long shot opportunity.

Oh, and I forgot to mention... Ron Pierce driving is always a plus in my eyes... Seeing him on the seat solidified my pick.

[melman]

fmolf---Hope your taking a liking to this s-bred stuff. :) Out of your three contest picks a nice 2nd at 15-1 and a $25.60 winner. Good work.

[fmolf]

fmolf---Hope your taking a liking to this s-bred stuff. :) Out of your three contest picks a nice 2nd at 15-1 and a $25.60 winner. Good work.
Thanks mel yes i like it so far I find it a bit harder to handicap.That could all be just perception and my lack of knowledge and experience.The only reason i picked scotchn cav. was because he was strictly a big m horse no shipping on his record.I am basically playing angles like that class drops,driver/trainer changes,horse going from outside posts its last few to an inside post today.I have not figured out the trips or the basics of pace here yet but i am working on it.thanks again an continued good luck to you.One thing I have noticed is there are not any obnoxious know it alls with big egos jumping down peoples throats and criticizing every statement or opinion that one expresses.That in itself is very refreshing!

[melman]

fmolf--I hope it stays nice and cival here in the s-bred section. Quite a few good posters with lots of knowledge. Not that I agree with everyone on every type of handicapping method. For one I have no problem with "cheap" races or lower class racing. The really BIG diff between s-breds and t-breds is the HUGE influence of posts. Esp at the half-mile and five eight's mile tracks. If you have some time I think you will learn and enjoy reading a lot of Bob Pandolfo at ustrotting.com web site. Click on the handicapping tool bar then on "Pandycapping". Right now he has a brand new article on handicapping s-breds that he calls "zip". It's an interesting read. One "angle" that you as a long time t-bred guy will like to know transfers well to the s-breds is third of fourth start off a layoff. You can get some very nice prices off of that method.

[fmolf]

thanks for the info i have been checking out the overnights at that site to see which horse drivers are choosing when named on two or more.I will read his articles in time thanks.
Do you know where i might find the drivers weights?A t bred friend of mine has this theory and it makes sense to me about driver changes.He feels that driver changes may be a way to get 15 or 20 pounds less for the animal to pull in a race where a switch is made to a lighter driver.Do they list the driver weights anywhere and is this valid?Does a 20 lb weight lose make a difference or not really because it is centered over the sulkys wheels.

[Ray2000]

fmolf

Here's the "Listed weights" for tonight's BigM card, but I have no idea if they're correct.
Probably it was the driver weight at time of license application ....19xx? dunno:confused:

Anderson, Ryan 150
Berry, Pat 160
Brennan, George 150
Campbell, John 155
Dauplaise, Jeff 158
Dobson, Billy 170
Dube, Daniel 150
Gingras, Yannic 135
Hegdal, Oyvind 175
Irvine, Brad 185
Lewis, Mark 145
Manzi, Cat 170
Marohn, Jim Jr 135
Marshall,Jim Iii165
Miller, Andy 160
Miller, David 152
Nason, John 200
O'Dea, Todd 190
Pierce, Ron 145
Randall, Jay 170
Sears, Brian 148
Silverman,Richard160
Simons, Mike 165
Switzer,KevinJr 180
Tetrick, Tim 150
Whittemore,Jimmy130
Wrenn, Peter 180

You might find this interesting


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=54149

[LottaKash]

thanks for the info i have been checking out the overnights at that site to see which horse drivers are choosing when named on two or more.I will read his articles in time thanks.
Do you know where i might find the drivers weights?A t bred friend of mine has this theory and it makes sense to me about driver changes.He feels that driver changes may be a way to get 15 or 20 pounds less for the animal to pull in a race where a switch is made to a lighter driver.Do they list the driver weights anywhere and is this valid?Does a 20 lb weight lose make a difference or not really because it is centered over the sulkys wheels.

Fmolf, it is an interesting, age old question, but for me, it is a question that I haven't asked in a a very long time.....I just let the "recent" records of the drivers do the talking.....Sometimes when given a chance to view the drivers in the winner cirlce, you may see a driver, that age and girth has gotten to, but for the most part most drivers are trim enough, as far as I can see, not to let that factor become a factor....The best and most relevant drivers still get the job done, weight or no weight....I believe that Harness horses are a very hardy breed and once they get rolling (think rolling starts) a 10-25 pound difference maynot be such a big factor after all.....I mean if a horse weighs 950 pounds why would a 20# difference make all that much difference when rolling along at a high rate of speed ?.....Perhaps it does make a difference, I don't know, all I know is I don't use it, and I still get the winners........On an off track that is on the gooey side, it may well be a factor, rolling resistance and all, but on a fast track, I don't even think of driver's weight one bit....But hey, that's just me.....

best,