Parked out

[alsoran]

I make my own velocity numbers for the harness races and I have been puzzled over the years by the parked out numbers that appear in the results section of both USTA and the Standardbred Canada. They tell us whether the horse in question was parked out at the 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 marks for each race. Well, I am mainly interested in whether the horse was parked out on the various turns of the race because that is where the ground is lost(approx. 13 feet for each turn -- assuming a 4 feet wide sulky). But, for a half mile track the 1/4 and 3/4 mile markers are in the backstretch and the 1/2 mile marker is in the stretch. So, there are 4 turns where I have to guess as to whether the horse was parked out or not and they only show the parked out marker for 3 positions any way. For 5/8 and mile tracks the situation is not quite as perplexing because I can guess the turns better. So, I was wondering if anyone has approached the USTA to see if they could make their parked out markers more relevant to the horses positions on the turns or found a way to work around my perceived problem?

[botster]

I make my own velocity numbers for the harness races and I have been puzzled over the years by the parked out numbers that appear in the results section of both USTA and the Standardbred Canada. They tell us whether the horse in question was parked out at the 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 marks for each race. Well, I am mainly interested in whether the horse was parked out on the various turns of the race because that is where the ground is lost(approx. 13 feet for each turn -- assuming a 4 feet wide sulky). But, for a half mile track the 1/4 and 3/4 mile markers are in the backstretch and the 1/2 mile marker is in the stretch. So, there are 4 turns where I have to guess as to whether the horse was parked out or not and they only show the parked out marker for 3 positions any way. For 5/8 and mile tracks the situation is not quite as perplexing because I can guess the turns better. So, I was wondering if anyone has approached the USTA to see if they could make their parked out markers more relevant to the horses positions on the turns or found a way to work around my perceived problem?

The only way to tell this very important fact is to watch the replays.Forget the U.S.T.A they are useless!...Oh yeah they will charge you for access to replays,great way tp promote the sport U.S.T.A.:ThmbDown:

[Tom-Oh]

YouBet has free Harness replays. I watch them all the time, very useful.

[wilderness]

I realize that abuses exist in the USTA system (at least from the perception of the general public and even their active members), however the USTA is first and foremost an organization whose key purpose is in accumulating and storing data. (anybody who desires to read historical information on this, only needs to refer to the original "Wallace Books or American Trotting Register (http://www.google.com/books?lr=&q=%22john+hankins+wallace%22&btnG=Search+Books)", which were begun by John Hankins Wallace) . Roland Harriman purchased the proprietary rights for this data in 1928. In early 1939 (at the inception of the USTA) the proprietary rights for these records (and other items) were turned over to the USTA from Roland Harriman. The USTA continues that tradition of data accumulation today. There are expenses involved both administrational and staff in their operation, however they remain a non-profit organization.

[markgoldie]

Actually, you are at the mercy of the local chart callers when it comes to parked out symbols. The rules for calling a horse parked out at a particular pole are vague enough that ther is plenty of room for individual interpretation on the part of the chart callers. So even if a parked out symbol is missing, the horse may have been out for most of the quarter in question.

As the Botster said, the ONLY way to get an accurate picture of where the horse actually was during the running of the race, you need to either see the race live or review the replay. I think we have all seen lines that cause us to scratch our heads in that they do not in any way depict the actual trip of the horse.

All this is the bad news. The good news is that anytime you need a little digging to get information, you automatically get a value edge on your betting competitors who are not doing the work.

[melman]

Markgoldie---You make one great post after another. Any newbie to s-breds whould be well advised to read your posts. GREAT job. Are you any relation to Ed Gold who was a long time harness owner in the Philly Area. He had a couple of nice horses with Abe Stolzfus back in the day at Brandywine. Also Mark are you "into" the pic3/4 betting?? I have found lots of overlays in those pools. FYI just in case you did not know the Monticello web site offers free replays of all Monticello races. The replays go back quite a bit in time also.

[markgoldie]

Hey Melman:

Prefer to keep my identity a secret for a number of reasons, which I can assure you are all good ones. However, I am very familiar with all aspects of the game and I go back a long way. But I don't believe in particularly standing on credentials or experience at any rate and so I'll let the logic of my posts stand on their own. At any rate, thanks for the kind words.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Hey Melman:

Prefer to keep my identity a secret for a number of reasons, which I can assure you are all good ones. However, I am very familiar with all aspects of the game and I go back a long way. But I don't believe in particularly standing on credentials or experience at any rate and so I'll let the logic of my posts stand on their own. At any rate, thanks for the kind words.

Ditto on Melman's comments. Your posts are all interesting and well written.

[melman]

Markgoldie---I did not mean to stick my nose in where it did not belong. I certainly agree with your wish in regards to indentity. Tks again for your great posts. Not trying to be nosey on your betting style but have you looked at pic3/4 betting? I think many here (including me) would enjoy reading your thinking on that type play.

[markgoldie]

I think pic 4's and pick 6's are the best value bets in the business. The reason is the single takeout on a multiple wager. Pick 3's are also good for the same reason, but the value increases as you add more legs. Also superfectas are excellent bets because they are actually a form of parlay wager with a single takeout. In the verticals, the parlay is win-to-place-to-show-to-fourth. The pick four offers a bit more value than supers in my opinion because when you play a vertical, you subtract a horse from the mix with each position. However, the number of horses is critical to the value. I try to stick to the largest fields possible because the more horses the more value. Also, as I have written before on the forum (on the t-bred side), large-possibility gimmicks offer a skewed pool twoards the favorite combinations. This favors players who have sufficient bankroll to cover any spread of conteenders that they see fit.

[Dboomster]

An interesting idea would be to chart horses with "outs" before and after the calls to clarify a more exact point of moving to the rim. If a horse pulls before the call, he gets an out before the positional call. If he moves after the call, he gets an out after the call.
Sports Eye used to chart horses which moved before the quarter with an out before the quarter call.
There is no way all the charters in the country will adopt the system, but I guess it is something we could consider at the "Eye" for Yonkers races.
I'll give it some thought.

DG

[markgoldie]

An interesting idea would be to chart horses with "outs" before and after the calls to clarify a more exact point of moving to the rim. If a horse pulls before the call, he gets an out before the positional call. If he moves after the call, he gets an out after the call.
Sports Eye used to chart horses which moved before the quarter with an out before the quarter call.
There is no way all the charters in the country will adopt the system, but I guess it is something we could consider at the "Eye" for Yonkers races.
I'll give it some thought.

DG
There is no question at all that this would be an improvement and an advancement to chart calling and past-performance lines in general. In fact, it could be a watershed change if properly done. Along with it, I would show triple-parked symbols "oo" before the 1st-quarter call to indicate that the horse was three wide around the first turn while leaving. Also, in the rarer case where a horse goes three wide around the clubhouse turn to get around a weakly-parked horse, the "oo" mark would go before the three-quarter call. If possible, I'd also adopt a "ooo" mark to represent quad-parked, which can happen on the last turn.

[Ray2000]

From watching the races at Woodbine, I assume WEG is using GPS tracking to show the race positions of each horse during the race. Software to convert this streaming data to Calls, Racing Wides and Lengths Behind to chart form would not be difficult and could include the good suggestions presented in this thread. Of course it will never happen in a dying industry. Also, it would put the human charter out of a job.


BTW
Want to train your horse in New Jersey from Florida?..:D


http://www.harnesslink.com/www/Article.cgi?ID=61415

[Pacingguy]

The only way to tell this very important fact is to watch the replays.Forget the U.S.T.A they are useless!...Oh yeah they will charge you for access to replays,great way tp promote the sport U.S.T.A.:ThmbDown:

Just one thing about the USTA charging for replays. They don't own the replays. Each time you watch a replay, they have to pay Roberts Communications for it. It would be nice if they provided free replays, but being they depend on dues from members, tracks and breeders, it is not like they have deep pockets.

[melman]

Forget the usta not gonna happen with them. I think each track should provide free replays. Monticello is hardly a large handle track but they offer this service on there web site.

[badcompany]

Forget the usta not gonna happen with them. I think each track should provide free replays. Monticello is hardly a large handle track but they offer this service on there web site.

They should also provide free programs. Batavia is a track that does this.

No one goes to the track, anymore. So, the tracks are just being penny smart and dollar foolish by creating another obstacle to betting on their product.

[jefftune]

The Meadows has race replays on their website also.

[jefftune]

When viewing the parked-out symbol in the pp lines, I wish it would somehow designate whether it was a first-over (or second-over, etc.) move. BIG difference - I find myself constantly going online to look at the chart.

-Jeff Tune
www.angelfire.com/pa/tune (http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune)

[LottaKash]

When viewing the parked-out symbol in the pp lines, I wish it would somehow designate whether it was a first-over (or second-over, etc.) move. BIG difference - I find myself constantly going online to look at the chart.

-Jeff Tune
www.angelfire.com/pa/tune (http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune)

Jefftune, yeah, you gotta check the charts and or replays to make sure of that factor (true first over)...But most of the time (of course not always) if you see a 1o or 2o that would be a first over horse....sometimes a 3o or a 4o will be a "weak" first-over horse as well....You would then have to look at the charts or replays to determine if that was a true-first-over line....Many players almost never consult the charts/replays, so that is to your advantage if you do....Hey, one line's truth can make all the difference in certain races....

For instance, say on a very cold and very windy night, a horse might show a running-line that shows him 3o or 4o at the half, and this horse was a "true" first over horse without any cover whatsoever, and even tho he couldn't even get to the wheel of the front runner in this race, but he hung in there real good in the late stages of the race, especially if accompanied by a swift fraction or two (cold/wind) then this horse may well be overlooked in the betting in his next start and simply viewed by the lazy bettor to be an also ran, and it may add to value of this horse in the betting in his next start or two....

At this time of the year, because of the severe cold and wind, I pay extra-special attention to "true first-over" horses....They are often strong plays, especially when the weather gets even more colder an windier the next week....They have proven their "bravery" under battle conditioins....I like these types, and I like the fact that their drivers/trainers, despite the severe conditions have the gumption enough to race their horse this way, anyway...It speaks volumes to me....

It pays to check, I am glad that you are doing this jefftune, it will pay off in the long run....Hey if you only get 1-double digit winner and maybe some associated exotics to go with your investigation-horse, then it will all have been worth it, imo....

best,

[andicap]

Mark,
you lost me here. In this thread you advocate pic 4's but in your post on betting in another thread you say you stay away from horizontal bets without a carryover because you can't tell in advance whether there will be value.

sign me

:confused::confused:



I think pic 4's and pick 6's are the best value bets in the business. The reason is the single takeout on a multiple wager. Pick 3's are also good for the same reason, but the value increases as you add more legs. Also superfectas are excellent bets because they are actually a form of parlay wager with a single takeout. In the verticals, the parlay is win-to-place-to-show-to-fourth. The pick four offers a bit more value than supers in my opinion because when you play a vertical, you subtract a horse from the mix with each position. However, the number of horses is critical to the value. I try to stick to the largest fields possible because the more horses the more value. Also, as I have written before on the forum (on the t-bred side), large-possibility gimmicks offer a skewed pool twoards the favorite combinations. This favors players who have sufficient bankroll to cover any spread of conteenders that they see fit.

[Tom]

They should also provide free programs. Batavia is a track that does this.

No one goes to the track, anymore. So, the tracks are just being penny smart and dollar foolish by creating another obstacle to betting on their product.

I love Batavia - it is like stepping out of your car in 1957! I go there a couple of times a year and it is just a perfect evening. They also show their whole card - all of it, uninterrupted, on TW cable every night, with Todd and the announcer running the show. Most fan-friendly track I ever saw, and OTB owns it! A lot of track could take notes on BD.

[markgoldie]

Mark,
you lost me here. In this thread you advocate pic 4's but in your post on betting in another thread you say you stay away from horizontal bets without a carryover because you can't tell in advance whether there will be value.

sign me

:confused::confused:
I was talking in response to Melman who likes to play the pics and wondered what I thought about them. I was stating that they represent good, if not the best value in the business and that's true. Normally, I don't play them myself without a carryover, not because there isn't value in them without a carryover but I'm one of these guys who just likes to concentrate on one race at a time. In the interest of full disclosure and honesty, there are several reasons why I don't routinely play the picks and here they are in all candor: (1) I never complete the total handicapping of a race until the last minute. I find there is just something intangible about "being in the moment" that really helps my decision making. In addition, if I handicap the race in advance for final play, I don't have the live tote information, (2) Much as I hate to admit it (as other handicappers would hate to as well), I use the betting odds as a final check to my handicapping ideas. Many times if I see a horse being bet that I don't have highly rated, I will go back to the pps to see if I'm missing something. And sometimes I will find that missing piece of information or integration of factors that makes sense. In other words, I will let the public open my eyes, so to speak, about the prospects of the horse. When I can't see anything that I might have missed relative to the horse's strong backing, I will begin to consider a possible insider scenario. Have these connections bet before with success? Is this the TYPE of animal that could have a hidden form? And (3) When I make a substantial committment to a horizontal, it skews my thinking as to my normal vertical play. For example, let's say I am using three horses in the horizontal on a particular leg in which I am "live." Normally, I will go more than three horses in the top position of a vertical, particularly if it is a super and if the field is full (10 horses). Here, I will routinely use 4 or 5 in the top position depending on the competitiveness of the event. But if I have only used 3 in the horizontal because of cost (assuming we're talking about a pick 4 or pick 6), I feel like I am "betting against myself" in the vertical. Now, you could say that using these extra top horses is an insurance of sorts, such that if I hit the vertical and blow out of the horizontal in the process, the added value in the vertical will make up the for the loss of the horizontal. But (a) it might not if the chalk runs under the longer-priced winner and (b) just having the longer-priced horse on top does not guarantee that I will hit the vertical anyway. So I guess what I'm saying is that it can screw up my "rooting" interest to the point I don't know what to even hope for.

In sum, it seems that you are (mentally at least) better off being a specialist in one form of wager or the other. And since I grew up as a vertical specialist, I prefer to keep it mostly that way. At any rate, I DO believe there is fundamental value in playing picks.

[LottaKash]

[QUOTE=markgoldie] (1) I never complete the total handicapping of a race until the last minute. I find there is just something intangible about "being in the moment" that really helps my decision making. In addition, if I handicap the race in advance for final play, I don't have the live tote information,

(2) Much as I hate to admit it (as other handicappers would hate to as well), I use the betting odds as a final check to my handicapping ideas. Many times if I see a horse being bet that I don't have highly rated, I will go back to the pps to see if I'm missing something. And sometimes I will find that missing piece of information or integration of factors that makes sense. In other words, I will let the public open my eyes, so to speak, about the prospects of the horse. QUOTE]

================================================== =========

Mark, I will admit to it.....That would be me....on both counts....

On the first count, that is why I have such a hard time making picks way ahead of time....

On the second, every now and then I will overlook something significant in the pp's, and glad that some unusual or unsuspected odds anomaly got my attention, and I will further adjust in the moment, possibly saving a wrong bet....How often, in my haste, I would overlook something so blatant to my way of handicapping, and would miss the play, or worse bet against the very thing(s) that I am always on the alert for..........It doesn't happen much these days, still, when I get sloppy, out of focus, and/or tired, when doing my homework, that has occurred....I don't mind getting beat for whatever the reason(s), but to make a play against my own "Pet-Things", now that, really pisses me off...

I know this is a bit off thread, but, I just wanted to confess while it was still fresh on the board...

best,

[markgoldie]

Hey Kash:

Confession is good for the soul. We both confessed and I feel better and I bet you do to. Anyway, if absolution is needed, I forgive you (as long as you forgive me) :) .

Mark

[toetoe]

Your posts are all interesting and well written.



Mark,

My sentiments, also. Iterum iterumque.

[LottaKash]

Hey Kash:

Confession is good for the soul. We both confessed and I feel better and I bet you do to. Anyway, if absolution is needed, I forgive you (as long as you forgive me) :) .

Mark

NO !...No Soup for you....Comeback 1-year.....:jump:

best,

[andicap]

Thanks for the candid reply, Mark.