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View Full Version : Meadowlands recap for Sat. 1/2


markgoldie
01-02-2010, 11:51 PM
After class of race is a projected class strength based on the horse competing in the race. The we have the first Quarter percentage of the total race and following that we have the pace of the race which is the second half of the race in fifths of a second MINUS the first half of the race in fifths. Thus a PLUS number means the first half was faster and a MINUS means the second half was faster. Then we have individual comments on the horses.

Saturday Jan. 2, 2010

Race 1 NW $10,000 L6 Average strength about 87 ( FQ% 23.84 ; +6 Pace)
Fractions: 26.4 55.3 125.2 152.2

Speed looks good as horses near front stayed on.
Apparent tail wind down stretch will make first and final quarters fast.

#1 Art At Heart. 4 hole, and over, exploded for easy score.
#2 Stormin Rustler. Rail very little.
#3 Allamerican Idol. Early take, pressed, caved.
#4 Boogyman. Inside shuffled, nothing at all.
#6 International Style. Left, yielded, rank pulled first over, challenged, weakened.
#7 Line Of Fire. Left, top, yielded to #3 and closed some inside.
#9 Cheyenne Hollywood. Left and weakly parked looking for cover that never materialized.

Race 2 NW 4 PM or $75,000 Life Average strength about 87 (FQ% 24.11 ; -10 Pace)
Fractions: 27.2 57.4 126.4 153.3

Minus 10 pace difficult for closers.
#1 Johnny Absolut. Rode rail but closed reasonably well
#2 Lil Rock N Rustler. Left, yielded to 3 hole, slid out late 3rd over and was even from there.
#3 Majestic Jackpot. Delayed leave to the top. Faced extreme 1st over pressure, was passed and fought gamely to regain second spot.
#4 Woodstock Hanover. Hard 1st over. Got the top but weakened in stretch drive. Good speed attempt.
#6 Real Joke. Got live cover flow as 2nd over behind Woodstock Hanover and grinded out the win.
#7 Fox Valley Barbosa. Gapped cover in a very weak effort.
#9 Tommy Tiger. Hard leave to top, yielded to pocket trip and stopped in stretch.

Race 3 Clm Hcp $75,000 - $100,000 Average strength about 94 (FQ%24.07 ; -1 Pace)
Fractions: 27.1 56.3 126.2 153
#1 Hennessy Hanover. 3 hole. Inside/outside explosive close.
#2 Livestrong. Early move to top. Pressed, weakened.
#3 Tough Love. 1st over weakened.
#4 Wildridge Sam. No pace, no contention.
#5 Dream Proof. Gap cover. Poor.
#6 Up Front Peyton. Faced some early interference. Belated late pace.
#7 Jo Pa’s Wild Card. Early skip. Little.
#8 Enlightened cam. Left, top yield, out to second over even close.
#9 Left. Top, Yield, Inside close.

Race 4 NW $15,000 L6 Average strength about 87. (FQ% 23.46 ; -3 Pace)

#1 Cheyenne Barry. Inside/ outside good close,
#3 Windsong Destroyer. Left top, cut mile, held well for win.
#4 Tinys Million. Belated moderate pace.
#5 Super Eighty Eight. 2nd over behind very bad cover. Forced 3 w into last turn and closed evenly under bad circumstances.
#7 Waltrip Hanover. Left to pocket trip and was empty.
#9 Lambretta. Left parked and stopped.
#10 Poker Dice. Left, settled in a hole and continued evenly.

Race 5 OPEN Pace. Average Strength about 94. (FQ% 23.48 ; +6 Pace)
Note on track bias: To this point speed is good in the sense that trailing horses are not getting into races. Therefore, close up trips are preferred.
Fractions: 26.2 55.3 125.2 152.2

#1 Psiluvyouheartbreaker. Left, yielded, inside, little.
#1A Blue Boy Early take of top cut, pressed weakened,
#2 Blueridge Western 1st over cleared into stretch and weakened some in stretch drive.
#2A Lookout Hanover. 3rd over in very live cover flow. Bore out in stretch while closing well.
#5 Poker Hat. 2nd over behind very live cover, closed well for win.
#8 Major General. Left to top sat inside and closed moderately through stretch.

Race 6. 4 year Old Preferred. Average strength about 91. (FQ% 24.28 ; -6 Pace)
Fractions: 27.1 56.3 125.1 152.0

#1 Nob Hill High. Some gap early. No rally.
#1A Faucon Stena Left to top. Pressed stop.
#2 Standupand kissme. Left, yield 2 hole moderate stretch pace.
#3 Tidewater Tomahawk. Late 1st over to top. Held well for win.
#4 Handsome Harry. 2nd over behind winner. Closed.
#6 Real Image. Belated 3rd over close.

Race 7 Clm Hcp $50,000 - $55,000. Average strength about 89 (FQ% 23.92 ; +10 Pace)
Fractions 26.4 55.0 124.0 152.0

#1 Coal Black Beauty. Rail, squeezed out and closed okay.
#3 Cash Cab. Gapped early. Ground up to 1st over and closed well in good effort to win.
#4 New Beginning. Stayed inside and had good late energy.
#5 Andy Roo. Left and retook. Cut. Faced winner’s pressure and held well in a front-end loaded pace race.
#6 Moster Dragon. Decent close from 5th over.
#7 Western Guy . Hard leave to top, yielded for pocket and expired.
#8 Warning Zone. Weak first over.

Race 8 NW $15,000 L6 Average strength about 91 (FQ% 24.68 ; -6 Pace)
Fractions:: 27.4 57.2 125.3 152.3

Note: Slow pace difficult for closers.

#1 Real Celebration. Inside/ outside moderate.
#2 The Rising N. Stayed inside. Some late foot.
#3 Corky Baran. Left to pocket trip. Boxed late but trip was perfect.
#4 Mighty Young Joe. Inside. Late pace.
#5 Albert chief A. Left to top, cut mile held on favorable fractions.
#6 Laguna Beach. Left to 3 hole. Backed up.
#8 Box Car Billie. Looked lame in post parade. 2nd over behing live cover, evenly.
#9 Thanks For Stoppin. Gapped cover. Poor effort.
#10 Blue Claw. Left, dropped in 7th. Moved 1st over raw and continued gamely while narrowly missing.

Race 9 Clm. Hcp. $50,000 - $60,000. Average strength about 92 (FQ%23.85 ; 0 Pace)
Fractions: 27.0 56.3 126.1 153.1

#1 The Perfect Escape. 3 hole angled out in str. Drive. Moderate.
#2 Red Skull. 1st Over clear, gamely.
#3 He Means Business. 2nd over. Evenly.
#5 Pilgrims Toner. 3rd over. Good close for win. Claimed.
#8 Move On. Left, yielded, sat 2 hole angled out and closed okay.
#9 Wesley Snip. Left cut mile. Favorable pace. Weakened badly.

Race 10 Invitational. Average strength about 98. (FQ% 23.79 ; -9 Pace)
Fractions: 26.3 56.4 125.3 151.4


#1 Fox Valley tribal. Left, shuffled. Some inside close.
#1A Southwestern dream. Early take of top, yielded, expired.
#2 Noble Falcon 1st over. Cleared. Held well.
#3 Blatantly Good. 3rd Over Big late move for win.
#4 Golden Receiver. 2 hole, shuffled, good energy in late inside close.
#5 Winbak Speed. Good late energy in outside close.
#6 Mystery Chase. 2nd over behind live cover flow. Evenly for 2nd.
#8 Legal Litigator. Made later backstretch rush to top and stopped.

Race 11 NW $22,500 L6 Average strength about 91. (FQ% 24.36 ; -8 Pace)
Fractions: 27 056.1 124.1 150.4

#1 Tarver Hanover. Rank early. Spped, sat 2 hole and held distant second.
#2 Western Shore. Early take to top and blew away field in big effort.
#3 Lets Getit started. Long first over grind into 3rd. place finish.
#5 Cessna flight. Left, hit 4 hole and weakened from there.
#6 Trade Editor. Left, parked to top yielded and weakened badly.
#8 Roxies Big Guy. Weakly on rail and closed steadily to pass tiring horses.
#7,9, &10 were never involved.

Race 12 Clm $40,000 NJOS. Average class rating about 88 (FQ% 23.56 ; +5 Pace)
Fractions: 27 56.4 127 154.3

#1 Arctic Stretch 3 hole to 1st over held fairly well.
#2 Idealic Life. 3rd over. Good close for 2nd.
#5 Allamerican Major. Left, yield, early take of top faced pressure and caved.
#8 Theredandpanlines. 2nd over in good cover flow. Closed for easy win.
#10 Chewy gross. Left top, yielded rode rail and closed some inside.

Race 13 NW 4 PM races. Average strength about 84 (FQ% 23.73 ; -1 Pace)
Fractions: 27.1 57.2 127 154.3

#1 Wall E 2nd over moderate close.
#3 I’m The Goto Guy. 3 hole to 1st over weakened late.
#6 Native Art. Strong backside move to top broke on turn. Recovered and still had some pace.
#8 Gooch’s Bad Boy. Left, yielded and rallied nicely inside.
#10 Star Party. Left yielded briefly to #6 who broke and then won under restraint.

Race 14 Clm. $25,000 Average strength about 84. (FQ% 23.69 ; 0 Pace)
Fractions:27.1 57.2 126.4 154.4

#2 Answer me This. Backstretch move to top, held well.
#3 Art’s Blaze. Made three different moves in race. Left, retook, was shuffled and moved off rail for an outside close. Good effort.
#4 Universal Dream. Good belated energy.
#5 Oragami Artist. Rank and well-handled by Tetrick. Grinded first over to win.
#6 Multiple Choice. Brushed to top backside and stopped.
#7 Tudor Hanover 2nd over good flow close.
#9 Beal Hanover. 3rd over in good flow and closed evenly.

fmolf
01-03-2010, 12:09 PM
Winbak speed was my contest play is this type of horse a good play next out?
As a novice harness guy who is only entered in the handicapping contest at the big m because it's free,I would like to thank all who have been responding to my queries.
Was surprised to see you Mark as a harness player as well as a tbred player.Your insights as usual are helpful and informative,as i am a complete novice.I went to roosevelt as a child with my grandfather but did nothing more than pick horses for fun ..never learning to read the pp's.
I did have the ex in the tenth yesterday for $2 :D ...I will not bet anything more than that till i become a little better at handicapping the standardbreds.Was lucky enough to have pilgrims toner because he was a reclaim(glad to see this angle is universal)on top of the 2 and the 3....

markgoldie
01-03-2010, 01:08 PM
Hey fmolf;

Winbak Speed. Naturally playing or not playing him next out will depend on who he's entered against. In general, regarding the -9 pace of his race and the nice close he made, I think we can say his effort was very good. Also in his favor is that he is a high-class animal who had been on the shelf for 5 months and this was his first competitive race back. So some improvement is expected. He is also versatile and doesn't have to be raced from behind. He has good tactical speed and the decision not to leave in here was probably related to the question of his overall fitness in this first race back. That being said, I think this Blatantly Good is a BEAST and will be hard for any of these to beat if he keeps his form. He was off of a 1 month layoff with only a qualifier before this. I think he is highly favored to win again unless a new import into this field is better, but I'm not sure who that horse could be. In other words, Blatantly Good may be the best horse in the country currently racing.

As for harness racing, I do both t-bred and harness.

fmolf
01-03-2010, 01:20 PM
I will keep an eye out for winbak speed to determine whether a bet may be warranted i am only betting small small money this season as i get my feet wet.I will look at the class of race he is entered in and let the odds dictate whether i wager or not....one question can you tell me what other angles are simialr if not identical to the t bred angles.And also which angles i am accustomed to using in t breds are a definite no-no!would be very grateful for such info.

am1947
01-03-2010, 01:54 PM
[QUOTE=markgoldie];

In general, regarding the -9 pace of his race and the nice close he made


Mark

Curious on what your Pace number has to be , to be considered significant.
A pace +/- 5 (1 sec) ? Taking into account the bias for the night ?

Really enjoy you perspectives. :ThmbUp:

AM

markgoldie
01-03-2010, 02:01 PM
Recap on Friday 1/1; Average 1st Q was 24.19% and Average Pace was +4.38. The BPQ nightly standard was 23.74 and Races 4 & 12 were BPQ races.

For Saturday 1/2 The BPQ standard was 23.47% and Races 4 & 5 qualified as BPQ races. Note: Race #5 was actually 23.48, but that is close enough to call this a BPQ race.

The following is a list of horses I placed on my "to watch list" due to an exceptional performance from the first two nights of racing:

ARTS BLAZE 3 moves good effort
BLUE CLAW good 1st over try
CIRCLES DRAGONLADY ins/outs good close slow paced race
DANCE IN THE WIND BPQ race and +11 pace
EXTENDER N surprise good performance, possible build on race
FOX VALLEY LOVER excellent close in slow-paced race
HIT AWAY +11 pace race
JAAVOS BOY +17 pace
KG DELIGHT lv. yield, shuffled ok close could have been closer
LR DANCING DREAM hard speed effort in minus pace race
MAJOR GENERAL BPQ held well and +6 pace race
NATIVE ART pace after break
RAMONA DISOMMA good close off -1 pace race
STAR PARTY won under restraint
SUPER EIGHTY EIGHT good 3 w off bad cover flow
WINBAK SPEED good late close in slow pace race
WINDSONG DESTROYER BPQ held to win.

Note: You can create a free virtual stable with free email notifications at Trackmaster.com (I have no affiliation with Trackmaster).

LottaKash
01-03-2010, 02:23 PM
Recap on Friday 1/1; Average 1st Q was 24.19% and Average Pace was +4.38. The BPQ nightly standard was 23.74 and Races 4 & 12 were BPQ races.

For Saturday 1/2 The BPQ standard was 23.47% and Races 4 & 5 qualified as BPQ races. Note: Race #5 was actually 23.48, but that is close enough to call this a BPQ race.

The following is a list of horses I placed on my "to watch list" due to an exceptional performance from the first two nights of racing:

ARTS BLAZE 3 moves good effort
BLUE CLAW good 1st over try
CIRCLES DRAGONLADY ins/outs good close slow paced race
DANCE IN THE WIND BPQ race and +11 pace
EXTENDER N surprise good performance, possible build on race
FOX VALLEY LOVER excellent close in slow-paced race
HIT AWAY +11 pace race
JAAVOS BOY +17 pace
KG DELIGHT lv. yield, shuffled ok close could have been closer
LR DANCING DREAM hard speed effort in minus pace race
MAJOR GENERAL BPQ held well and +6 pace race
NATIVE ART pace after break
RAMONA DISOMMA good close off -1 pace race
STAR PARTY won under restraint
SUPER EIGHTY EIGHT good 3 w off bad cover flow
WINBAK SPEED good late close in slow pace race
WINDSONG DESTROYER BPQ held to win.

Note: You can create a free virtual stable with free email notifications at Trackmaster.com (I have no affiliation with Trackmaster).

Good "eye-on" Markgoldie....There were several that I have on my list as well...To save time I have highlighted them in red....These are horses that I thought would improve and they did....

best,

markgoldie
01-03-2010, 02:30 PM
[QUOTE=markgoldie];

In general, regarding the -9 pace of his race and the nice close he made


Mark

Curious on what your Pace number has to be , to be considered significant.
A pace +/- 5 (1 sec) ? Taking into account the bias for the night ?

Really enjoy you perspectives. :ThmbUp:

AM

You have to determine the nightly average first before making any general statement. Now. I fully realize that nightly pace averages are influenced by driver actions, the propensities of the horses involved in the races, etc. But at some point the analysis just becomes too much to handle unless you are hiring outside help (which actually isn't a bad idea). But since I'm doing this myself, albeit full time, I generally depend on the nightly average to tell me how the track was "playing" regarding speed.

That being said, anything at +/- 8 (8/5 or 1 3/5 second) over or under the nightly average is something significant enough to be looked at closely. In the case of Winbak Speed, the pace was -9 and the nightly average was -1.2, so we were at a 7.8 differential from the nightly average. But that's enough to consider the race a front-ender's advantage race and so a good close is clearly a good effort.

I should also point out that you should employ flow analysis when making these determinations. The quality of the outer flow is very important when it comes to the ability to close. The drivers at The Meadowlands are usually very good at detecting a poor cover flow and will abandon it it early if it appears to be stalled. However, if it is good, they will ride it into the stretch and sometimes if there is no one coming from behind and it is still moving, they will stay in the cover flow even 50 or 70 yards into the straightaway. When this happens, you should downgrade the quality of the closing move because the horse is being essentially "dragged" into it. On the other hand, if the flow was stalled and the driver had to launch the move on the turn, without benefit of cover, THESE moves are outstanding if sustained and into a fast last half.

Anyone wanting to turn a corner and get to a professional level needs to learn and understand flow analysis. This is stuff that does not jump out of the program at the average bettor and hence, yields some big dividends. Naturally, it must be combined with pace analysis, particularly speed analysis, as well as the other basic angles of racing. When you put it all together, there is plenty of information here that the average player will never get to and therefore, if you put in the work, there's no reason not to win.

PS. I'm putting in more effort here on the harness side now because frankly, I like you guys better than the guys on the other side. Harness people are more "down to earth". Ever notice that??

fmolf
01-03-2010, 02:37 PM
[QUOTE=am1947]

You have to determine the nightly average first before making any general statement. Now. I fully realize that nightly pace averages are influenced by driver actions, the propensities of the horses involved in the races, etc. But at some point the analysis just becomes too much to handle unless you are hiring outside help (which actually isn't a bad idea). But since I'm doing this myself, albeit full time, I generally depend on the nightly average to tell me how the track was "playing" regarding speed.

That being said, anything at +/- 8 (8/5 or 1 3/5 second) over or under the nightly average is something significant enough to be looked at closely. In the case of Winbak Speed, the pace was -9 and the nightly average was -1.2, so we were at a 7.8 differential from the nightly average. But that's enough to consider the race a front-ender's advantage race and so a good close is clearly a good effort.

I should also point out that you should employ flow analysis when making these determinations. The quality of the outer flow is very important when it comes to the ability to close. The drivers at The Meadowlands are usually very good at detecting a poor cover flow and will abandon it it early if it appears to be stalled. However, if it is good, they will ride it into the stretch and sometimes if there is no one coming from behind and it is still moving, they will stay in the cover flow even 50 or 70 yards into the straightaway. When this happens, you should downgrade the quality of the closing move because the horse is being essentially "dragged" into it. On the other hand, if the flow was stalled and the driver had to launch the move on the turn, without benefit of cover, THESE moves are outstanding if sustained and into a fast last half.

Anyone wanting to turn a corner and get to a professional level needs to learn and understand flow analysis. This is stuff that does not jump out of the program at the average bettor and hence, yields some big dividends. Naturally, it must be combined with pace analysis, particularly speed analysis, as well as the other basic angles of racing. When you put it all together, there is plenty of information here that the average player will never get to and therefore, if you put in the work, there's no reason not to win.
Is cover flow the same as horses drafting off of each other?Similar to the stock cars drafting behind each other?....Have their been any post position studies as they relate to drivers coming from the different posts?I know posts 5 and 6 give the drivers more options and inside posts most often are limited to going or going faster lest they be trapped behind horses....one last question ..does a beaten length equal 1/5 as it approximately does with the t breds?

markgoldie
01-03-2010, 03:06 PM
[QUOTE=markgoldie]
Is cover flow the same as horses drafting off of each other?Similar to the stock cars drafting behind each other?....Have their been any post position studies as they relate to drivers coming from the different posts?I know posts 5 and 6 give the drivers more options and inside posts most often are limited to going or going faster lest they be trapped behind horses....one last question ..does a beaten length equal 1/5 as it approximately does with the t breds?
Yes. Cover flow is drafting and this is a critical difference between t-bred and h-racing. In t-bred racing there is very, very rarely any significant drafting. Happens sometimes in grass racing more than anything else. But in H-racing, it is a crucial element and it is essentially the driver and his body that creates the draft, although there is an element of "relaxation" that also exists, since horses following each other are able to relax better, knowing that there's really nothing for them to do but just follow the leader. Flow analysis comes from the fact that virtually all races are contested in two tiers at some point- inner and outer. We will often get three and four wide moves, especially on half mile tracks but these moves are generally short-lived and so they can't really be considered a "flow". Closers either have to get into the outer flow to launch a move or they have to wait for the stretch and seek room if they are stuck in the inner flow behind other horses. The outer flow may either be "good" meaning essentially that the first-over horse is making steady progress on the front runner of the inner tier, or "bad" meaning essentially that the first-over horse has "stalled" out in his forward move and hence any horses in this flow must go wide to continue to gain on the leader. Flow analysis is complex and comes from years of viewing races and their results, but if you keep several things in mind, it might help: (1) It's easier to draft behind another horse than to be uncovered; (2) movement of the outer flow is crucial to the prospects of horse closing from this flow. (3) inside closers are at the mercy of stretch space and the ability to move forward without loss of time and momentum. (4) And this is somewhat advanced, many trip anlaysts OVER EMPHASIZE the blocking or difficulties of inner flow blocked horses. The reason is that inner-flow closers SHOULD have great energy for the stretch drive. Why? Because they haven't done anything in the race to sap their energy. They are saving all the ground, racing in a covered-up flow and haven't been "used" like other horses who have made moves in the race. But the trip analysts get all excited when they see some horse trying to get through the inside and can't and the driver has some horse. They mark the horse with triple stars and wait breathlessly for the animal's next race and the horse gets bet like he can't lose. Only this time, he has to make a three wide move on the last turn and instead of raging with late pace, now he is gagging in the stretch. The point is, it's better to look for terrible trips that led to excusable bad performances than it is to look for perfect trips that didn't work out due to blocking.

Yes, we use 1/5 of a sec. as 1 length. Not sure about the relevance of post position studies to flow analysis. Seemingly two different things.

Anyway, my friend, how are you doing with the flats??

botster
01-03-2010, 04:22 PM
The postings of Mark here, are undoubtably the best read on harness handicapping that I have ever seen posted on any forum.

You need to know your horses results on how he, or she, handles certain trips and get an idea of their class rating and begin to draw conclusions what type of grade that horse needs to be rated.Replays are an absolute must!!! Watching them with a tedious, scrutinizing eye must be performed.Only then, can I see the positive results and be confident enough to bet.

Many of these horses race here, year after year, and they will show when they are ready for better efforts.Class and heart are the top two deciding factors for me when handicapping, and I need to know a horse, and get a good idea of how that individual will race when put to the test.The value appeares when the general public is decieved by the past performance of an individual, and creates overlays for myself.

BLUE CLAW who raced last night for example is a five year old who is a ultra class act who stepped up last year and showed me in particuliar a remarkable effort when they had him very close to 100%.These type of efforts stick in my mind.

Now... the CLAW has obvious had some physical woes,but when he is on, he MUST be considered one of the best high conditon horses on the grounds.Last nights effort was quite remarkable in defeat with a giant two move try while going sound.The opening fractions were pretty slow for these type, even for this type of night,but the general public will overlook this effort next week to a degree, and I believe will set up a very good play for me.I need to get a certain price here 7-2, would be decent enough.

The M1 is still the best game in town to get your price IMO.I was very happy with the first two cards of racing, and the winter meet is a great opprotunity to get a jump on the R.O.I. Before long, the heat of summer will be upon us and prove the usual speed favoring track.

am1947
01-03-2010, 06:42 PM
[QUOTE=botster]The postings of Mark here, are undoubtably the best read on harness handicapping that I have ever seen posted on any forum.
QUOTE]:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:


I would definitely second that. Clear,logical analysis explained really well.
I would add read anywhere for that matter and I have read most of it. LOL .



AM in the PM

melman
01-06-2010, 07:33 AM
Some great posts in this thread, really enjoyable reading. Glad Mark hopped over to the s-bred forum with us "more down to earth" guys and gals. :) I would like to toss this out as I have found it very true and often overlooked by bettor's. IT seems pretty basic but the s-bred when he gets "in shape" or "in form" whatever you want to call it holds his form much longer than a t-bred horse. Even in the lower class horse. Esp with winter racing horses that may appear to be outclassed will be able to move up and win. Not long ago one of my favorite Meadowlands horses was Vodkaontherocks. "Vodka" was hardly a world class superstar but a solid $15,000 to $25,000 claimer. Despite being a win machine he still paid some nice prices. That horse made some nice money for his many owners. To sum it up if your horse is in form do not be as concerned about "class" as u might be with a t-bred.