Vinman
01-01-2010, 08:06 PM
One of the obvious benefits of betting Doubles and Exactas is being able to adjust your bets according to the very latest "will pays" and put your bets in as close to post time as possible. Sometimes you have to settle for "a little less" because of the proverbial "smart" money that is wagered at the bell. The resulting final prices aren't known until the horses cross the wire. We've all seen it....all been burned by it.
As of today, I'm crossing Turf Paradise and tracks with similar sized DD & exacta pools off my list of "playable tracks" after experiencing "THEE" most "head spinning" last minute "price slam" I've ever seen in almost 40 years of going to the track.
I'm spreading just over $100 among 12 Daily Double combos at TuP for the Race 8/9 Daily Double, with a final pool of $9,414. I'm using a Tiny Tim to place my bets, which I'm basing on a "dutching spreadsheet" I put together on Excel.
I'm playing the 3,4,5,10 in the 8th with the 2,4,9 in race 9. The 10 was the even money fave in the 8th and simply didn't have it. I figure I'm dead until my 5 gets up at the wire....at 9/2.
Now, based on the will-pays with about 2 minutes to post, the DD's 5-2, 5-4 and 5-9 were paying $127, $357 and $274. Based on those prices, I made wagers of $3, $2 and $2 on those combos out of a total investment of $108. My largest bet among my 12 combos was $45 on the 10-2, which was paying $12.
After the 2 won the 9th at 6/5, I again checked the now final will-pays with the 5/2,4,9 on the Philly Phone Bet DD screen on my laptop and saw that, incredibly, my 3 "live" DD's were now worth.....get this.....$36, $81 and $98, representing declines of 72%, 77% and 64% in the closing minutes from the prices previously noted.
For you BRIS Ultimate PP fans out there, the winning horse in race 8, Lomard, did not have a "Prime Power" ranking. In 10 years of using BRIS Ultimates, I've NEVER seen a horse with U.S.A track pp's without a Prime Power figure....ever.
Lomard "distinguished" himself in this 6 furlong 3K claiming event with three races at the 2,000 to 2,500 level at "Yav", Flg" and "Yav" on 6/7, 7/3 and 8/11 following the last of his most recent TuP races on 4/20. Apparently, being eased versus 2,500 competition 143 days ago was not an obstacle to the winner's circle today for this 12-1 morning liner.
I don't want to bother calculating how much of a "punch" these DD combos took in the closing minutes, but with a pool of over $9,400, it had to be substantial. I'd be willing to bet that the parties who benefited were not concerned about Lomard's missing Prime Power rating.
Lesson learned....Bet cheap claimers in small betting pools at your own peril.
Back to the two horse exotic pools at the Big A for the Vinman
As of today, I'm crossing Turf Paradise and tracks with similar sized DD & exacta pools off my list of "playable tracks" after experiencing "THEE" most "head spinning" last minute "price slam" I've ever seen in almost 40 years of going to the track.
I'm spreading just over $100 among 12 Daily Double combos at TuP for the Race 8/9 Daily Double, with a final pool of $9,414. I'm using a Tiny Tim to place my bets, which I'm basing on a "dutching spreadsheet" I put together on Excel.
I'm playing the 3,4,5,10 in the 8th with the 2,4,9 in race 9. The 10 was the even money fave in the 8th and simply didn't have it. I figure I'm dead until my 5 gets up at the wire....at 9/2.
Now, based on the will-pays with about 2 minutes to post, the DD's 5-2, 5-4 and 5-9 were paying $127, $357 and $274. Based on those prices, I made wagers of $3, $2 and $2 on those combos out of a total investment of $108. My largest bet among my 12 combos was $45 on the 10-2, which was paying $12.
After the 2 won the 9th at 6/5, I again checked the now final will-pays with the 5/2,4,9 on the Philly Phone Bet DD screen on my laptop and saw that, incredibly, my 3 "live" DD's were now worth.....get this.....$36, $81 and $98, representing declines of 72%, 77% and 64% in the closing minutes from the prices previously noted.
For you BRIS Ultimate PP fans out there, the winning horse in race 8, Lomard, did not have a "Prime Power" ranking. In 10 years of using BRIS Ultimates, I've NEVER seen a horse with U.S.A track pp's without a Prime Power figure....ever.
Lomard "distinguished" himself in this 6 furlong 3K claiming event with three races at the 2,000 to 2,500 level at "Yav", Flg" and "Yav" on 6/7, 7/3 and 8/11 following the last of his most recent TuP races on 4/20. Apparently, being eased versus 2,500 competition 143 days ago was not an obstacle to the winner's circle today for this 12-1 morning liner.
I don't want to bother calculating how much of a "punch" these DD combos took in the closing minutes, but with a pool of over $9,400, it had to be substantial. I'd be willing to bet that the parties who benefited were not concerned about Lomard's missing Prime Power rating.
Lesson learned....Bet cheap claimers in small betting pools at your own peril.
Back to the two horse exotic pools at the Big A for the Vinman