Meadowlands Selections for January 1

[Pacingguy]

In honor of opening night at the Meadowlands, here are my early selections.

1st Trot - $21,000; NW 17,250 last 6 starts
7 - Pembroke Prayer 9-2
3 - Drill Sergeant Sam 15-1
5 - Jaavos Boy 3-1

2nd Pace - $15,000; FM NW 10,000 last 6 starts
5 - Cruzin Inya Jammys 5-1
3 - Terroronthebeach 7-2
1 - Little Mermaid N 8-1

3rd Trot - $21,000; NW 17,250 last 6 starts
1 - Libra Vita 9-2
9 - Dink Adoo 3-1
8 - Badboy Paparazzi A 6-1

4th Pace - $21,250; Claiming $30,000
8 - Glass Pack 10-1
3 - Hit Away 3-1
10 - Ideal Conditions 4-1
1 - Haverford Hanover 7-2

5th Trot - $25,000; NW 22,500 last 6 starts
8 - American Lane 10-1
6 - Speed Bomb 5-2
10 - Peter Lugar 7-2

6th Pace - $25,000; Open 10 years old and up
8 - Image of Dawn 8-1
5 - Napoleon N 7-2
2 - Non commital A 9-2

7th Trot - $32,000 Invitational
3 - Lavec Dream 6-1
8 - Beach Nut Brand 9-2
5- Looking Hanover 7-2
1 - Likeabatoutahell 5-2

8th Pace - $25,000; FM NW 22,500 last 6 starts
4 -Mach You And Me 3-1
6 - I'm Betting On You 7-2
7 - Orphan Annie 9-2

9th Pace - $21,000; FM NW 16,000 last 6 starts
2 - Locamotion Baby 15-1
1 - Away We Go 12-1
7 - Dream McQueen 5-1
6- O Narutac Bella 7-2

10th Pace - $32,000; Mares Invitational
4 - Native Bride 3-1
3 - Cuz She Can 7-2
1 - Natalie 10-1

11th Pace - $21,000; FM NW 16,000 last 6 starts
6 - Lightning Treasure 8-1
3 - Village Bolero 2-1
7 - KG Delight 4-1

12th Pace - $17,000; FM Claiming $30,000
5 - My Fanny 5-1
8 - Jilsander N 9-2
3 - Armbrom Dandelion 8-1

13th Pace - $17,000; Claiming $30,000
6 - Last Orders 3-1
3 - Western Prince 10-1
8 - Ball McCartney N 15-1
1 - Marchand 15-1

[Pacingguy]

Sorry, but I should have mentioned this earlier.

You should know the Meadowlands is not one of my favorite tracks as I don't do as well there as I do elsewhere. Also, these picks were done early, so depending on the odds, I am liable to make a switch in my picks.

[toetoe]

I'm with you on Libra Vita and Native Bride. I played Lavec Dream in the contest, but the race is too tough for real money, as is the heat for ten-year old pacers.

Also:

4) Haverford Hanover;
5) Speed Bomb;
9) O Narutac Bella;
11) Lady Sometimes, Lightning Treasure, KG Delight (for pick-three purposes);
12) Ali Rush (I fear a betdown on this one).

[markgoldie]

Hard to get overly involved at this early stage. Horses coming from many different tracks and with varying degrees of activity.

However, a couple of spot plays could be in order:

Race 2: #1 The Little Mermaid N.-- has been facing possibly the stiffest competition of any of the recently-active horses in here and has performed well. Narrowly bested the #7 two back after being shuffled (who, by the way is a clear contender here despite the 10-1 ML). Tactical speed and closing ability.

Race 6: #10 Quality Western-- Horse has several strong angles going for him. Most recent activity in the field which can be huge among horses of this age who require extra work to stay sharp; A switch to Tetrick which will certainly help; and a class edge over most of these. Also, a main contender the #2 Non Commital A has not raced since early December and the qualifier is mysteriously poor for a horse of this caliber. He has a hot speedball in the #5 to catch and that could be a problem if the track is very supportive of front end speed. But if it's not, he should make it to the winner's circle.

[toetoe]

I need Ali Rush or Thumbprint for a desperation pick-three. (:Crossing fingers.)

[DeanT]

Some nice picks there pacing Guy. Several nice prices. I missed your Image of Dawn pick for the pick 4. I have not bet that horse since he was about 4 years old. My bias kicked my in the gonads :)

Regardless, nice job!

[markgoldie]

Seeing if this works. Trying to paste my trip notes for tonight.
Looks like it did. Not all horses are noted, just pertinent ones.
THE MEADOWLANDS DIARY:

Friday, Jan. 1, 2010

Race 1 Trot NW 17,250 Average field strength about 90.

Track appears good for speed. Horses forwardly placed did well through fast fractions of 27.3, 55.4, 125.2, 155.0

#1 Yankee Frenzy towed into race 2nd over gapped some and closed fairly well. Good trip.
#4 Tenacious Kyle early speed yielded for pocket, collapsed.
#5 Jaavos Boy overdriven on front weakened.
#7 Pembroke Prayer- left to 4 hole pulled 1st over and remained strong. Good winning effort.
#8 Righteous okay late close.
#6 Big Sky Diamond some late trot
#10 AJ’s Send Money left hit hole stayed inside no excuse
#3 Drill Sergeant Sam saved all ground no close.

Race 2 Pace F&M NW 10,000 Average field strength about 83

Once again looks good for speed. Bad outer flow caused by a stopping #2 made those horses impossible.
#1 Little Mermaid Even try. Left some , early take, later yield for pocket some close 2nd best. Was my top selection in this race.
#2 Lola Palooza . Possible some excuse. Wouldn’t turn and had a long chase to gate even before race started. Then ist over and collapse.
#4 Shayna Baby. Overdriven. Left, yielded, then a fast retake and weakened although fractions were reasonable.
#5 Cruzin Inya Jammies. Inside close. No work done.
#6 Garden Gate Tina. Left, hit hole and closed ins. Good overall trip.
#7 JK Getupngo. No leave. Caught in bad outer flow. Moderate close.
#8 Bouncy Betty. 1st 3 wide off of bad cover in outer flow and held reasonably well through stretch.
#9 Omen Hanover. Winner Good leave for top, yielded and made a strong late 1st over move for the win.
#10 Chausettes Blanche. Bad wide flow. Moderate.

Race 3 NW $17,250 Average strength about 93.

Still looking like speed necessary.

#1 Libra Vita. Some leave, settled. Grind retake to top. Weakened some in str drive. Bore out srt.
#2 Twin B Navigator Late 1st over. Was short and stopped.
#3 McDeen Star. 1st 3 wide evenly off bad cover.
#4 Fox Valley Lover **** Nice hot close. Best close in race by far.
#7 Rapid Strategy. Wide flow, nothing.
#8 Bad Boy Paparazzi. Left to top. Yielded to 3 hole. Okay inside close for win.
#9 Dink Adoo. Grind to top. Yielded and offered fair close.

Race 4 CLM $30,000 NJOS Average strength about 85.

Again, speed types.

#1 Haverford han. Hot leave, rated, weakened significantly. Claimed
#2 Lennon NZ 3 hole poor.
#3 Hit Away. Hard leave, hit hole. Inside close.
#4 Pro Art . Nothing
#5 Asgoodasioncewas. 3rd Over in live flow. Good move hung a bit late.
#6 Shoot first. Moderate close.
#7 The Quiet Village. Gd leave. Hit 4 hole stopped.
#8 Glass Pack. Moderate close.
#9 Kathryn Dancer. 2nd over in live flow. Stopped.
#10 Ideal Conditions. Left hit 5 hole. Good first over for the win.

Race 5 TROT NW $22,500 Average strength about 96

#2 Summertime Yankee Rail no real close.
#4 Celebrity Playboy. Sharp 1st over, challenged by winner. Held okay.
#6 Speed Bomb. 2nd to 1st over, easily.
#7 Tich. Good leave, yield. No close.
#8 American Lane. 2nd over. Live flow. Held okay.
#9 Gapped 3rd over.
#10 Left, top. Yielded, empty.

Race 6 Open for older horses. Aver. Strength about 91

#1 No Free Parking. Inside. Some late foot.
#2 Non Commital. First over. Weakened.
#4 Racing Naked. Gapped cover.
#5 Napoleon. Left, yielded. Inside close.
#6 High Calibre N. Little.
#8 Image Of Dawn. 2nd over in live flow. Okay close for the win.
#9 Extender N. The surprise good effort. Left fast yielded, Okay close.
#10 Quality Western. Parked to top. Immed. Pressure, caved.

Race 7 INV Trot. Aver strength about 99

#1 Likeabatoutofhell. Lv. Pocket evenly.
#3 Lavec dream. Ins/outs close okay.
#4 Merited Victory. Ins. Some late cl.
#5 Looking Han. 1st Ove. Good try.
#6 Swan Image. Live cover. 2nd ove. Just up.
#7 Let’s get serious. 3rd Over in good flow.
#10 Dennis. Parked to top, rated, stopped.

Race 8 F&M NW $22,500 Average strength about 87.
First evidence that track bias may be shifting to closers.

#1 A Patchy Frost. 2nd ove in good flow, clear, weakened.
#2 Eagle Hilarious. 1st Over stopped.
#3 Mysticole Maggie. 2nd over in live flow, good close.
#4 Mach You And me. Leave, retake weakened sharply
#5 Leanback Coco. Live flow 4th over. Good close.
#8 BC’s Jesse. Parked leave, yield. No close.
#10 Binions. Good late energy.

Race 9 F&M NW $16,000 Average strength 83

Close to pace held well here, so maybe bias hasn't changed much.

#1 Away we Go. Very weak 1st over, expired.
#3 Sam’s Shuffle. Leave some. Ins/outs move for win
#4 LR Dancing Dream. Lv. Retake. Weaken without strong pace pressure.
#5 Riley Rose.. LeaVE, Yield evenly inside.
#6 O Narutac Bella. Good late energy. Best late close in race.
#8 Perfect sport. Lv. Hit hole. Ins close.
#9 Im A Native two. Okay positioning late. Hung.

Race 10 F&M OPEN. Average strength about 90.

#1 Natalie. Inside some close.
#2 Style Semalu. Very weak 1st over. Died.
#3 Cuz She Can Early move to top and immediate yield to winner.
#4 Native Bride. Early move to top. Handily.
#5 Ramona Disomma. Okay move off very bad cover flow. Good try.
#8 Western Graduate. Early speed to top, yield. Wkn badly.

Race 11 F&M NW $16,000 Average strength about. 86.

#1 Driving In Style. Some spd. Inside, stop.
#2 Circles Dragon Lady. Ins. Outs good close.
#3 Village Bolero. Lv. Top. Hard challenged, stopped.
#4 Symphony In Motion. Good flow swept to top, weaken str.
#5 Lady Sometimes. Insane hard 1st over. Rebuffed. Stopped.
#6 Lightning Treasure. 2nd over in good flow. Okay close for win.
#7 KG Delight. Lv. Yield, shuffle, some late close. Could have been much closer.

Race 12 F&M $30,000 Claiming. Average strength about 87
Track seems about fair for speed at this point, bias has clearly shifted a bit from early races.

#1 Ali Rush. Rail speed. Stopped.
#2 Dance In The wind. Strong 1st over brush to big lead, weaken badly late.
#3 Armbro Dandelion. Left 1st over. Stopped.
#5 My Fanny. 2nd over. Okay 3 wide chase move.
#7 Run On Luck. Strong close from back. Claimed.
#8 Jilsander. Sharp leave to hot quarter. Blown out backside and eventually stopped.
#9 Life’s A Trip. Big move from far back for narrow win.

Race 13 Claiming $30,000. Average strength about 89.

#1 Marchand. Lv. 3 hole, shuffle outs good close.
#2 Mattdultery. 1st Over, clear, stop.
#4 Broadway Jake. Lv. Top., yield, pocket. Nothing.
#5 Armbro Carruthers. Even close.
#6 Last orders. 4th ov. Strong close. Claimed.
#9 Up front Jerry. Hard leave to top. Yielded backside. Stopped. Claimed.
#10 O Narutac Pat. Left. Hit hole, moved 2nd over, left 1st over. Strong effort to win.

[toetoe]

I come not to defend my picks too desperately, Goldie, but Ali Rush was stalled twice behind rotten cover, once after pulling out, even. I also think Natalie got the the bum's shuffle, almost to Buffalo. I always dread the rail postage at a mile track. (:Trembling.)



I think Image of Dawn and Lightning Treasure had plenty of trot/pace, if not raging amounts. Good work, Sir. :ThmbUp: .

[lamboguy]

i saw that opening night had a more than $3million handle. not bad for a great sport that makes alot of sense for online players. the ontrack handle was skinny though, $460,000.

[Tom-Oh]

i saw that opening night had a more than $3million handle. not bad for a great sport that makes alot of sense for online players. the ontrack handle was skinny though, $460,000.
The internet is the future. I wouldn't be surprised if within 10 years all local OTB's are shut down besides a few big time ones in major cities. The internet just feeds our convenience, why leave our home to bet when we can sit down in front of a computer and do the same thing? PLUS, OTB takes out a % of your winnings, playing online you get the full price shown on the board :).

[markgoldie]

I come not to defend my picks too desperately, Goldie, but Ali Rush was stalled twice behind rotten cover, once after pulling out, even. I also think Natalie got the the bum's shuffle, almost to Buffalo. I always dread the rail postage at a mile track. (:Trembling.)



I think Image of Dawn and Lightning Treasure had plenty of trot/pace, if not raging amounts. Good work, Sir. :ThmbUp: .

Just reviewed the replays for the races of Ali Rush and Natalie. I do these trip notes from the live running of the race as well as the instant replay showed by the track. This can create some errors on occasion because the analysis is done rather quickly. However, I have access to all replays. So I wanted to see what you were talking about.

Normally, unless there is something extraordinary about the performance of the horse, I will accept the running line in the upcoming past performance of the horse and will not consult the notes. However, in some case I may be confused as to how the race unfolded so I may consult the notes at that point. In other words, I learned long ago that you can OVER-emphasize trips in your handicapping.

Respectfully, I disagree with the notion that either horse was significantly better than indicated.

Ali Rush was indeed stuck behind the dying Jilsander and then angled out behind another deadish parked horse. However, she was free for the entire length of the stretch and after a short rally, was clearly gassed at the wire. Now, would she have been closer if her momentum could have been maintained throughout the race? Yes, no doubt. But considering the hot first quarter and hot first-half pace of the race, she might also have been further back without the breather she got behind stalled horses. For example, had she popped out of the hole on Jilsander, she might have found herself coming to a walk in the stretch. These things are hard to gauge and although I give her some credit for a good turn of early foot on a hot first quarter, I'm pretty much satisfied that the line is representative of what she was able to do in this race.

Natalie left well and was shuffled on the inside. She began to angle off the rail shortly after they turned into the stretch and despite some close quarters, she was under an all-out drive from Miller for at least the last 70 yards. In that period she closed a bit but apparently was going no farther than she got. I base this on the fact that she closed quickly on Ramona Disomma (who had about a length and a half jump on her), but at the wire, she was not only not able to get by Ramona, but she wasn't GOING to get by even if the race had further to go. Compare her trip, for example, to the forementioned Ramona Disomma. She was caught in a stalled outer flow while second over and was forced three wide on the last turn behind the backing up Style Semalu, losing several lengths in the process. She then launched a sharp three wide bid and maintained her charge through the stretch, beaten only by two superior mares with better journeys. And as I say, the replay indicates to me that the rail-running Natalie was never going to get by her.

In sum, I'm convinced that neither Natalie nor Ali Rush were significantly better than their lines would indicate.

[LottaKash]

The internet is the future. I wouldn't be surprised if within 10 years all local OTB's are shut down besides a few big time ones in major cities. The internet just feeds our convenience, why leave our home to bet when we can sit down in front of a computer and do the same thing? PLUS, OTB takes out a % of your winnings, playing online you get the full price shown on the board :).

Tom, here is an interesting take on the above....It is taken from the book "C&O's Greatest Hits - vol.1" by handicappers, Mark Cramer & Bill Olmstead (1996)....

What will happen to our racing-culture when home betting prevails ? If we look at the social impact of other home entertainment devices, including home shopping, we can conclude that our alienation has increased and our sense of community has been obliterated in many places or as sociologist Ray Oldenburg has written: "Since World War-2 and until recently, we have proceeded as if neighborhood and community don't matter", and we have paid "heavy prices in inconvenience and social isolation" "....

best,

[Tom-Oh]

There are always pros and cons to every situation. But I think on the up side, many real life racing communities may die, but many online communities will arise such as PaceAdvantage but on an even more massive scale. I can assure you racing would not be affected in a negative way if it turned into an on-track and online wagering only type of thing. Old doors close and new doors open, that's how I look at it.

[toetoe]

Thanks, Mark. I wasn't really ready to argue on Natalie's behalf. The diagnosis on Ali Rush is disappointing. :( .



I will take one more look. :ThmbUp: .