What do you think of JCapper? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Arlo

12-31-2009, 10:30 AM

I saw JCapper mentioned here quite a few times in a very good way. I read the info at the Jcapper website as well. If anybody using it would care to share their thoughts about this program in this thread I'd appreciate it. Looks like it's been about two years since there was a good info thread about JCapper.

And yes, I know there's no such thing as a black box. I just say that because when I was researching here that's something that seems to be said over and over. I get it, so no need to rehash that. :)

Thank you

DJofSD

12-31-2009, 11:02 AM

Welcome to the board.

I believe Jeff offers a demo or trial version. Check it out that way. Once you have dipped your toes you can look at the web site forum for additional help.

Arlo

12-31-2009, 11:12 AM

Thanks DJ, I saw the free demo offer. I'm just trying to get an idea what people who use it think about it. Or on the other hand what people who don't use it any more think about it.

Charli125

12-31-2009, 11:27 AM

Arlo,

I've been a jcapper user for about a year now, and I love it. The thing that I find most helpful is that I can look over past data in a thousand different ways to find out what has worked, and what hasn't. I can compare different seasons, surfaces, conditions, etc., and it gives me a good base to handicap from.

I will also say that the new jcapper additions have been a huge help. It's now 100 times quicker to run queries and get results.

I know it takes some time to learn a new software, and that's probably why you're hesitant to download the trial, but I do recommend the trial.

Let me know if you have specific questions about functionality and I'll see what I can do to answer them.

Charlie

Arlo

12-31-2009, 11:46 AM

Charli125

12-31-2009, 12:03 PM

Thanks very much, Charlie.

I guess the main thing I'd ask is do the JCapper UDMs depend on past results to predict future outcomes? I only know what I've read here, and I'm in no way an expert, but that seems to be a reasonable criticism. I do see where you can use JCapper data to handicap using pace or speed, but the UDMs seem to be the centerpiece of the program. Again, I'm only formulating questions based on the things I've read here at PA. I don't really have an educated opinion yet.

That's a good question, and I guess it depends on how you use it.

You could create a UDM that showed a 1.1 ROI over the last season, and then you could apply that UDM to this season expecting the same 1.1 ROI. I don't think that would be very smart though, and the chances of it performing the same way the next season as it did the last are slim to none.

The way I use UDM's is to flag horses that I should take a closer look at based on criteria that have continuously shown a good ROI. I go through and look at combinations and criteria that have performed well, and create UDm's based on those. Then, when I look at my report in the AM, I'll see which horses have been flagged as being worth a closer look.

I also continuously update my UDM's. I'm not sure if this is what other users do, but if a criteria that worked great last year is a detriment this year, then I'm going to make that UDM innactive so that I don't think it's flagging a positive item.

Arlo

12-31-2009, 12:48 PM

That's very reasonable, using your UDMs to serve as a sort of contender selection tool. Updating them makes great sense as well. I got the idea from what I read here that some will make a final decision based on what the UDM tells them and others like yourself will use it as a jumping off point for their serious handicapping.

Charli125

12-31-2009, 02:23 PM

For a better explanation, write PA user Jeff P. He's the creator of Jcapper. Please don't take my way of doing things as the "right way", as I'm still a very new user.

Arlo

01-01-2010, 07:40 AM

Just bumping to see if there's anybody else out there who would care to share their opinions of JCapper with me.

JustRalph

01-01-2010, 08:18 AM

I have been accused of being a Jcapper Whore .............so take it at that.

I love it.........I think it is the best thing going .......with a narrow lead over a few others........ the assumption of not being able to use it for "pace" and "speed" I think is in error. There are so many ways to use it for pace and speed..........based on writing your own UDM's and applying your own theories, that you really have to get to know the program to be able to see the light .

I personally don't use the new stuff/additions. I just haven't had time to catch up.......but this baby is constantly being improved.

Pick what you think your wheelhouse is.......and run with it. That is what I think the beauty of the program is..........you decide what area you want to really go after.......and it provides a million ways to do it.

don't shortchange yourself. try it out.............

lamboguy

01-01-2010, 08:34 AM

i have never used this program or any other program that generates selections. i don't even use the racing form even though i get it for free. i have found that the horse with the "best number" does not win all the time, and that if you did bet it all the time you would still be a loser. there are alot of variables that come up in the game that numbers or models cannot make any sense in the world out of. for instance i don't know of any numbers that can suggest that a horse will run a better or worse race than they did the last one they ran in. i don't know of any computer that can tell you that a horse that ran in a $5000 non winners of a race to the date is better than a wide open nickle. yet there are races like that.

this j-capper could be real good for you if it takes the information that you like and it spits out a selection that you are comfortable with based on the criteria that you feed it. i find that a human touch is still needed to make your best selections. i have been using pace figures for the last year as a final handicapping tool in deciding wheather to place thebet or pass it. i find that earlymiddle and late pace helps me immensely, and if i didn't have them i would be in alot of trouble today. i might be different that alot of people in that i am not a trick player. if i bet 30 races i might throw a trick in once or twice out of the 30. i suppose for people that are more focused to play tricks a program like j-capper would be quite helpfull. i would also say that j-capper can probably help you to have some dicipline in making your plays. i am not about to knock j-capper or any other program because i have never tried them. with the way i play my ROI is a losing one. i have not had a winning year in the last 10 betting horses without a rebate. even with my rebate i have a return of less than 1%.

stranded

01-01-2010, 09:24 AM

i have been using jcapper for about two year's plus .also tried hsh.all i can say is my r.o.i. with jcapper is 1.97 on plays over 4-1.will not play unless i have a udm and odds are 4-1 or over.had some concern's about sql udm's .jeff walked me though it. when you make good udm's though research,the only thing that can nbeat you is yourself. :)

lsosa54

01-01-2010, 09:27 AM

with the way i play my ROI is a losing one. i have not had a winning year in the last 10 betting horses without a rebate. even with my rebate i have a return of less than 1%.

Thanks for being honest with yourself and the group - much appreciated. It is a damn tough endeavor that requires a ton of time investment and work and discipline and even then...

Arlo

01-01-2010, 10:18 AM

I'd like to ask Ralph and Charlie (or any other JCapper user) if successfully handicapping with JCapper is the brutally crushing, nearly impossible endeavor as per Isosa's and Iamboguy's opinions here. They seem to paint a fairly hopeless picture.

Do you who use JCapper spend the majority of the day handicapping in order to be successful?

lamboguy

01-01-2010, 10:22 AM

Thanks for being honest with yourself and the group - much appreciated. It is a damn tough endeavor that requires a ton of time investment and work and discipline and even then...one more thing that i didn't add to my comment is that my life is all about horseracing, i buy, sell, breed, and race horses. so betting on them helps me to stay more intuned with the sport. i also speak with trainers, clockers, track maintenace people and various farms throughout the land. meaning once in awhile i might find something out about a horse that's not in the numbers or the racing form.

headhawg

01-01-2010, 10:31 AM

I think that they are painting a fairly accurate picture, Arlo. If you can't handicap, you can't handicap; it's as simple as that. As fine of a program as Jcapper is, no software is suddenly going to turn you into a winning player without a lot of hard work. Users will share ideas, but not their secrets.

The best thing to do with any software is work with the demo version for a while. If using handicapping software is right for you then you will find one (or two) that you feel comfortable with. You'll just know it. If you give up within a couple of days -- or even a couple of weeks -- then it's not for you.

stranded

01-01-2010, 10:50 AM

i also breed and race thoughbreds. jcapper has given me a great edge.my roi on all horses going off a 4/1 or higher is 1.97. yes you have too change ,this goes for almost any thing in life. if you can not be patience,stay forcused,and believe in what you are doing you will fail anyway.

Arlo

01-01-2010, 11:33 AM

Thanks, headhawg. Yep, the demo trial run is the way to go for sure. I never said I couldn't handicap, I'm just trying to get real-life opinions on JCapper. So far the folks who use it seem to like it a lot.

PaceAdvantage

01-01-2010, 11:39 AM

I'd like to ask Ralph and Charlie (or any other JCapper user) if successfully handicapping with JCapper is the brutally crushing, nearly impossible endeavor as per Isosa's and Iamboguy's opinions here.That's a very interesting way to phrase your question.

Handicapping, like any endeavor worth pursuing in this life, can be as bone crushing or as easy as you'd like, depending on the results you expect to achieve.

Tools such as JCapper work towards making the endeavor of handicapping easier while at the same time, making sure you maintain your desired results. Results that would no doubt suffer without the use of such tools.

Arlo

01-01-2010, 01:10 PM

Thanks, PaceAdvantage. Yep, no doubt in my mind it would make things easier. There just seems to be a fairly stark contrast between the responses of the JCapper users and the others. I didn't see that the others actually used JCapper, though.

bigmack

01-01-2010, 01:18 PM

Looks like it's been about two years since there was a good info thread about JCapper.
Looks like this is a mere few months old:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=59805&highlight=jcapper

Arlo

01-01-2010, 01:59 PM

I had read that thread, but it turned into a bit of a urinating contest. Your point is well taken, though. There's some good info in it. Thanks.

DeanT

01-01-2010, 02:07 PM

Arlo,

The odd thing for me (and this goes for other programs that show value based or hidden positives the same way) is that a sure way to fail is be married to PP's while you are using it. Often times way back when I would see a horse with some decent factors and then I would flip to the PP's and say "I can not bet this horse, he looks terrible!" It took me awhile to say "well, that's the point!" and bet the horse. Obvious horses we all know we're lucky to get a 0.8 ROI. We dont want those!

It is especially so on poly, imo. I think that is why value based programs show some fine fettle on the rubber - it takes all the passion and preconceived notions out of the equation and it helps you make better, dispassionate decisions.

JMO, and good luck!

lsosa54

01-01-2010, 02:54 PM

Arlo: I agree with Dean T, esp. about "not being married to the pp's" and some of the others' opinions. I'm sure JCapper is a fine program and I typically read anything Jeff has to say with great interest and respect. I also feel the same way about Ken Massa and HTR (read his newsletters all the time) and Dave Schwartz, who I first came across in the old Sartin Follow Ups. I also greatly respect the writings of Tom Brohamer, Jim Quinn, and Dick Schmidt, as guys who I know have done it.

I don't use any of these programs - I have used a combination of Aodds98 Gold developed by Jim Bradshaw and Randy Kovach and EXDC/Thoromation, developed by Jimmy and Doc Sartin. Lately, I have been trying to figure out a way to include Handifast in the process.

All I am saying is that to turn a long term profit in this endeavor, it's no freaking walk in the park, having been a professional for 2 years in the mid 90's. It takes a ton of work, sometimes "bone crushing" and very frustrating as you say. Will JCapper help you? It's very possible that it will if it fits your style. All I am trying to say is that don't think that ANYTHING is a "push button" way to a long term profit.

As frustrated and "wanting to quit" as I've been at times, I still get a lot of joy out of the endeavor. That's why I've continued the challenge since late 1988.

Nothing is impossible and hopeless but if you think it's going to be easy, it's not.

Arlo

01-01-2010, 03:12 PM

Thanks, Isosa. Actually I never used the word frustrating. I never said I think its easy. And I'm fully aware of the nonexistence of a "magic button" as you call it.

All I'm trying to do is get info on JCapper.

Arlo

01-01-2010, 03:14 PM

Light

01-01-2010, 05:25 PM

Jeff has a message board on his site. Why dont you ask over there.

acorn54

01-01-2010, 05:28 PM

like isosa said there is no easy way to make money.
i don't know if the effort needed to turn a profit in any form of gambling is worth it. one would be better off learning a trade or a profession for good money.
it really has to come down that you do it because you enjoy it.
someone a long time ago at the track, an oldtimer who spent his life with the horses said to me "this game can be alot of fun if you don't take it too seriously".

ArlJim78

01-01-2010, 05:34 PM

I've been using jcapper for two years now and love it. The latest improvements took a good software package to an even much level higher level. I have spent a lot of time on various UDM's, using trial and error to refine my techique so that I avoid the traps like overfitting the past data. I continuously come up with new ideas for UDM's so the development process goes on all the time. I monitor my UDM performance daily. About 90% of my play now consists of making conditional win wagers on my UDMs so the PLAY portion of my game has become very mechanical which for me is a good thing.

It takes a lot of work, but so does any other approach to this game if you are serious about it. I prefer putting a lot of work into developing my UDM's because they are more efficient and consistent and faster at finding certain situations than I could ever be if I merely slog through the PP's manually every day.

PaceAdvantage

01-01-2010, 05:48 PM

All I'm trying to do is get info on JCapper.I'll think you'll find the level of satisfaction with JCapper is very high when compared to other handicapping packages out there...

Beyond that, it might be best to check out the Jcapper site itself for more specific information:

http://www.jcapper.com/

Arlo

01-01-2010, 06:05 PM

Arlo

01-01-2010, 06:08 PM

Jeff has a message board on his site. Why dont you ask over there.
I just thought I'd get a broader spectrum of answers here. I also wanted to see if there were folks who weren't happy with JCapper.

So far seems that everybody who uses it loves it.

Old Sparky

01-01-2010, 06:23 PM

pa - bossman i cant be edgy anymore Arlo I use the J - what do you want to know -- I know U

castaway01

01-01-2010, 08:47 PM

Thanks, PA. Yes, it absolutely seems that everybody who actually uses JCapper and has posted in this thread is very satisfied with it.

I've been to the JCapper site and there's a ton of great info there. I was just looking to get some informed opinions here is all.

I haven't used JCapper but if you want a perspective on the guy who created it, from years of reading Jeff's posts I'd say you won't find many sharper guys out there. I would think he'd be a fine person to work with and learn from and he seems like a patient guy too. You could learn a lot just by reading his old posts, that's for certain.

Best of luck to you Arlo.

acorn54

01-02-2010, 03:46 AM

yes
jeff is a stand up guy. he is dedicated to his jcapper program and is constantly looking to improve upon it.
i have known jeff since november of 2004 and remember how he went out of his way to modify the program just for me so that i could use it on my pc that had the oddball millenium operating system.
i strongly suggest that you contact jeff and talk to him directly and i am sure when you do that you will be able to make the decision of whether to use jcapper or not.
anyway my personal opinion of the program which i have already written about in a previous thread on jcapper is that it has provided me with alot of entertainment. i can not say i show a profit with it after accounting for the fees of datafiles and the cost of the program and updates, but i use it everyday to bet the horses, and the capacity to do data queries has answered alot of my questions about horseracing.
hope this helps.

Arlo

01-02-2010, 07:18 AM

Appreciate the input, guys. :) Acorn, thanks very much for sharing your experience with the program.

Everything I had read about Jeff agrees with both your opinions of him. He sounds like a very smart and classy guy. That also comes out in his posts.

Arlo

01-04-2010, 10:34 AM

Thanks to the JCapper users who gave their opinions in this thread, which looks to have run its course. I'm going to give JCapper a much closer look. Appreciate y'all dropping by.

stuball

01-04-2010, 05:55 PM

I have to say I am sold on JCapper..I purchased it a few years back and immediate success followed playing the picks.
(Right out of the box) not the best thing that could happen...
I was putting a lot of work into other things I was doing at the time and did not take the time to properly learn Jcapper.
Now that I have taken the time to really dig in and learn the
program and Yes, it takes time to learn..I am very happy with it. I met Jeff when we went to Keeneland in the spring of 09. He got me going and I also consider him a good friend.
Though if you ask him, he may deny he is a friend of mine...LOL He is always there and willing to help his customers..

Stuball

judd

01-04-2010, 07:29 PM

how did his program pick that $200 winner the other day ???? :(

Arlo

01-04-2010, 08:22 PM

Thanks stuball, and welcome to the thread.

Judd, where did you hear about a $200 winner?

judd

01-04-2010, 10:04 PM

Thanks stuball, and welcome to the thread.

Judd, where did you hear about a $200 winner?
6th race sat aqueduct

stuball

01-05-2010, 04:06 PM

It could well be that one JCapper user could have the $200 winner and the next would not have it, due to the fact that
users create their own UDM's before hand. The program does not (pick) the horse. Your UDM does...the program does it's job after you do your job..I hope I am splaining that right.

Stuball :lol:

Arlo

01-07-2010, 12:21 PM

Yep, I read that thread. Jeff's custom UDM picked the winner. Pretty amazing.

Vinnie

01-07-2010, 12:39 PM

Arlo:

Excuse me for chiming in, but, have you called Jeff P up to talk with him about JCapper? I have never before used his software, but from all acccounts of people who have and have taken the time to post, they seem to absolutely love the JCapper Software. Please keep in mind, I have merely emailed Jeff in the past a couple of times, and he is an awesome guy and one class act of a fellow in my opinion.

Give him a call or shoot him an email and I am sure that he will take the time that you need to explain the JCapper software and how it works because he is just that cool of a dude and one of the good guys in the biz. :)

All the BEST to you.