Handicapping Contests

[Shacopate]

I entered my first one today had a blast. I nearly tripled my bankroll. With one race to go I was in the top ten and had a decison to make. 1. Bet the horse I think will win and try to crack the top 8 to get paid (modestly) or
2. Swing for the fence and try to win it all. My contest inexperience done me in because I chose the latter. I didn't know at the time that the top 15 are invited for the finals which sends the top two to the Vegas nationals. Opps!

I'm sure this has been discussed before, but I missed it.

I was wondering how many people here play contests regularly and do you have any special strategies or minimum odds.

[Zaf]

Was this an online contest ???

You have to go for mid range to higher prices. In a room filled with 150 - 200 handicappers, there are a whole bunch of them who will only play these types of horses ( 5-1 to 20-1 ).

Last July I played in the 2002 Bradleyley Teletheather Contest. (225 contestants) On the first day early, 2 or 3 $40.00 bombs scored, and there were more than a handful of players who had them. Thats a lot of ground to make up with short priced horses.

I had almost all my bullets left and clawed my way back to almost 30th place on day 2. I was forced to use my last 3 bullets looking for cap horses. I faded back and only managed to crack the top 50.

IMO, you must generally look for higher paying horses. If someone hits a $40.00 horse, It will take at least 6, 2-1 shots to make up that ground.

ZAFONIC

[Shacopate]

It was at Churchill Downs. On live races 3-8.

I was surprised at how many had the 34.60 winner of the seventh race. The race was a gaggle from the git-go. 5 furlongs on turf to boot. One rider (number 8) dismounted at the gate, refusing to ride the horse and had to be replaced. Another (the 4 and eventual winner threw John Mckee at the gate after that and HE had to be replaced. It makes me wonder what kind of "special treatment" the 4 got when he came back to the paddock. It took about 30 minutes after the horses were at the gate to actually run the race. Bizarre!

[Zaf]

That sounds like a typical evening at Sam Houston :D

ZAFONIC

[hurrikane]

I was sitting watching the board for that race and couldn't figure out what the heck was happening.

[alysheba88]

Without knowing full details its hard to comment.

In general with the book money contest you should as others say focus only on mid odds horses. And I believe you should swing for the fences and try to win, or at worst finish in the top 5. While finishing 9th or 10th is nice it's not a life changing score. So play to win, you can be sure the pro's will. Obviously if you aren't in position to win with a race or two left you should try to finish as high as possible.

That being said, and this goes back to the full details, I am confused about the type of contest you were in. Was there a big difference in prize money between 1st and 11th? Was it more of a qualifying contest? It sounds like it (you mentioned the top 15 finishers advance). In qualifying contests, like the kind Penn National used to have, you should have one objective. To qualify. Doesn't matter if its 1st or 15th your focus should strictly be on qualifying. Once thats assured then try to win it all.

Having a 2 in 15 shot to make it to Vegas for the big contest are nice odds.

Handicapping contests are great. I have a had a ton of fun with them. Suggest everyone enter at least one or two a year.

[Valuist]

The one at the Gold Coast next month will be my first Vegas contest. From now on out, my main focus is tournament preparation; not necessarily day to day profits (for the next 3 weeks).

[alysheba88]

Good luck Val, should be fun.

Studying in advance is a great idea. Go over charts and develop a game plan. Look at past contests and get an idea for what # it takes to win. Get to the contest a day early and make sure you have a seat and everything all scoped out. You want to be comfortable. Keep your wits. Its easy to get distracted with all the tracks running and everyone screaming.

Again best of luck!

[Shacopate]

The weekly prize at CD is 700 for first, paid out to eight place 75.

You have to be in the top 15 in a weekly contest to get invited to the finals.

The finals on July 2 is for 5k and sends the top two to Vegas, all expenses paid.

[Valuist]

Alysheba-

Here is my strategy:

1. Concentrate on routes, mostly turf, and Mdn races (as long as they don't have more than 2 first time starters). The tracks I mainly play are the Chicago and Kentucky circuits, so most of my plays will come from AP and ElP.

2. Have key races going back 2 months for the 8 circuits; these are especially useful in Mdn races

3. Have a "bank" of 90-100 horses who I've been waiting to run back. 15 selections are required for each of the 3 days.

4. Do post parade and paddock study for each of the possible bets.

Right now I'm up to date on the key races but there's still several weeks to go. I haven't started the list of run-backs.

Since they pay down to 50th place, there's no need to desparately stab at hopeless longshots after the first idiot hits a 50-1 stab in the dark. I've entered the local contests a few times, been in contention, then see a longshot come in that I didn't have, which ended up throwing off my wagering as I started looking for 20-1 shots. I'm only going to focus on my own plays rather than worrying about the obnoxious guy(s) who are celebrating their wins.

[hurrikane]

Sounds good Val.

I'll add one thing to think about. I believe the Gold Coast is $100 win/place. Alot of the big dogs that buy 8 or 10 entries will be playing all longshots hoping for one to pop on a ticket.

so, play one entry..and remember that a 25.00 place payout is better than a $10 win payout. So you may not always be looking for the winner, you will be looking for the price. I know it sounds funny but that is the tourney circuit.

[alysheba88]

Val,

Sounds like a good strategy. Those contests are fun.

Schaco,

In that type of scenario my only goal would be to finish in the top 15. If I won it would be by accident. The 2 in 15 chance to get to the finals where the big money is should be the emphasis. Not trying to be critical..

[Zaf]

Another stategy would be to buy two entries. With the second entry you could play horses with longer odds that have a shot. If a few of these longshots pop, you will probably find yourself in contention going down to the wire.

ZAFONIC