AP race 9 June 18, 2003

[Show Me the Wire]

Contenders based on mechanical set of rules # 2 Kool Kool and # 8 Salomon Swagger. Each horse was selected under two different sets of rules. For Kool Kool, I chose the last two races as representative running lines for today. For Salomon Swagger, the May 30, 2002 and Feb. 2, 2002 running lines as representative running lines for today.

This does not mean I will wager on either one. I will not make that decision until I see the odds and payouts in the gimmicks.

I willl divulge my pattern recognition especially as it applies to Salomon Swagger, under two conditions. First condition is others most post their selections as state which running lines are the representative ones. Secondly, the reason why i.e. pattern recognition or simply black box today's running lines were selected as representative.

I am not asking anyone to give out their secret formulas for contender selection, only pattern recognition for running line selection.

I put conditions on my explanation, as I hope this will be an excellent opportunity to learn about paceline selection for everyone, including myself.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Show Me the Wire]

To clarify my prior post. I chose the contenders, prior to picking today's representative paceline. I did not use the specific pacelines I identified as the basis for choosing the horse as contenders.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[hurrikane]

well,
pl selection would be #7 Swept Clean. ES advantage (which isn't that big a plus at AP), My guess is this horse goes off now where near 5-1. With the drop in class, the trainer and the early foot the public will more likely be 5-2.

If he goes and the price is right I will play the 13 Will on Wheels,
This is based entirely on the trainer. And I"m guessing he won't be 12-1.

[Show Me the Wire]

Hurrrikane:

Thank you for your interest. A few questions.

Did you select the horse, because of paceline or due to some other selection method? Also what paceline are you using as today's representative running line?

Thanks in advance.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Brian Flewwelling]

This is a great idea ... i hope it works!

My mixed up method goes as follows
I reviewed the Past Perf Lines for each horse and selected weightings for those lines based on what seemed representative of their current abilities.

My program then did a Wtd Average of speeds, and Fractional (Pace) meaures, and ranked them.

For the previously mentioned horses my selected lines were:

Kool Kool: Overweight on the last, underweight on the prev and lightly weighting on 3-5 back-- Rank 4th

Salmon Swagger: Equal wt on last 2, lite wtg on 4-6 back. Rank 3rd

Swept Clean: main wt on last, lighter on two races in '01 to reflect expected improvement. Rank 13, but top EP suggesting this horse could lead by 2nd call and those old lines may be the one for today. Easy bet at >5-1, but as suggested, the public is not likely to leave him there.

Also:
King Sweep: Like Kool. Rank 1st but coming late

Winning Affair: Last 3. Rank 2nd but up in class and will not get the position of those last 3. Expect not to be real factor.


On EarlyPace, Swept Clean, and Victory Sweep are the leaders with a bunch 2-4 len back. The Quirin numbers for El Crusader and Will on Wheels suggest they may be more interested in the lead than either of the quicker horses. If this leads to a contest for the front, i like King Sweep, especially if i can get >6-1


And any right thinker would have to consider the names, and do an exacta box on the "Sweeps"
:D


Brian

[Show Me the Wire]

The swami angle eh.

Hi, ho. hi, ho off to the track I go.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Brian Flewwelling]

I made my post to encourage the thread, not to tout it!

I was hoping for some constructive criticism, or better ideas. i would love a mechanical contender method!!!



Brian

Agein it happens:
my mother used to tell me that i was not competely useless, i could always serve as a bad example!

[kent]

I'll try somewhat of a mechanical system.

I run a program that selects 'ALL' pacelines* and I take the top two -- which are the #8 (Salomon Swagger 4 1/2 -1) and the #6 (Good Better Best 15-1) Edge to #8. The sort is on the 'Turn-Time' that has been doing well @AP. (#2 Kool Kool was ranked 7th in my sort.)

Both to win. (6 & 8)

* I have trouble when I try to pick 'a paceline.'

Not sure what you were looking for in reply.

Kent

[hurrikane]

SMTW, I assume you are talking about the #7

at first I used the last race. Still the early fractions beat anyone here. that may not be so good at AP.
then looking back the last race early figs are about the same as the race he won 2 yrs ago.
No one appears to run enough to keep up early so, looking like the horse will rate, I"m assuming he doesn't have to go so fast so early which should help a lot.

I gotta tell you I'm by no means a PL guru..I leave that to you.

that was my logic..or lack of it. :D

Now..about the box on the 'Sweep' horses. :D

[Brian Flewwelling]

Darn, only one Sweep came in :( :D

[Show Me the Wire]

Brian Flewwelling:

Not sure what your reference was too. I meant I was leaving to go to the track and i would not be posting for awhile. Additionally, nothing is wrong with the Swami angle idea:

Glad to see you contributed to this thread.

Well it looks like hurrikane picked the winner. I di not bet because AP experienced a down pour and the track became very gooey.

I landed on the 8 instead of the 7, because of a mechanical rule about horses being laid up more than 6 months and taking a big drop. Lots of times trainers get a free pass, due to the fact everyone wants to see this type horse run before a slip is dropped. This allows the connections to steal a race. However, once the rain came this horse became a toss out.
The 2 became the betting favorite and the lowest double and I did not like him at that price or in the doubles, the real reason I went today. I thought Golden Travality was a cinch in the first leg, but as I said once the down pour came all bets were off.

I did not like the 7 because of the quick big drop. I viewed the drop as a big negaitve.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[hurrikane]

well, even a blind squirl....blah blah.

I too did not bet. Track was changing to fast for me so I moved on.

Actually, the whole day is pretty much a washout. Maybe tonight something will pop up.

[Brian Flewwelling]

I loved this exercise. Is there stomach to try another? Say the 9th at WO tomorrow (June 19) ?

I will start a new thread with my sloppy method (sloppy being my technique, not the condition of the track:) )

****************
Sloppy is the method of a guy who likes the 6 best (at 9-2) and the 1 next (at 10-1) and the 3,7 favourites. Then bets wp 6, exacta 6,1/1,3,6,7 and ignores the 1 as a wp candidate!!!! YES, 1 won with the 4,9 and paid 18.20/9.30
( WO race 7 today)
****************

Brian

[Show Me the Wire]

Brian:

Would enjoy to keep participating, but I do not have the pps for Wo. I usually have the pps for CD and AP.

I like to see more threads about application and reason for application, instead of theories of mathematics. I believe there is a conspiracy to inverse the relationship between physical reality and abstraction on this board at times.

Watch out for that hurrikane though.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by Show Me the Wire
Brian Flewwelling:

However, once the rain came this horse became a toss out.
The 2 became the betting favorite and the lowest double and I
Perception is reality

A little more explanation of why the goo made me toss my other choice. Usually, when a horse is laid off for that amount of time it generally reflects a serious injury and most likely to the front legs. It may be chips, slab fracture, tendon problems, etc. If a horse has experienced that type of problem you do not want to add extra stress to the area. What do I mean? Think about what happens when you walk in heavy mud. Usually, you sink and get stuck and possibly your shoe will pull off. Relate this to the extra stress on the horses already susceptable leg when it tries to pull its foot out of the goo.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality and my reality is horse racing is sum positive game.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by kent
I'll try somewhat of a mechanical system.

* I have trouble when I try to pick 'a paceline.'

Not sure what you were looking for in reply.

Kent

Wondering how many select contenders first and then look for today's representative paceline only for the contenders, as implied by Brohamer versus using pacelines on all entrants to chose the contenders.

Hope that clarifies.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Brian Flewwelling]

Originally posted by Show Me the Wire
Brian:

Would enjoy to keep participating, but I do not have the pps for Wo. I usually have the pps for CD and AP.



then you call it... i generate my pps from the free Eq stuff, so i can go 'anywhere' in N. America. but unlike the old cowboy, i haven't been 'everywhere, man' yet! :)

[Show Me the Wire]

Brian:

I will do my best to find a worthy race.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality and my reality is horse racing is sum positive game.

[hurrikane]

interesting take SMTW.

I wasn't really concerned with the firmness of the horse for a couple of reasons.

first the race 90 days ago was sharp. After such a long layoff he ran almost to his prior numbers and about par for this level.

The one thing I didn't like was this horse hit his first off track. And that was only gd...and lost it in the end. So I left it alone.

I actually didn't play AP at all....in fact...it was hard to find a dry track or a full field yesterday.

don't think I'll be around for the pl pick today unless it happens awfully early.

[Show Me the Wire]

hurrikane:

Sometimes too much knowledge or info is blissless, while ignorance is bliss.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality